Thursday 10 January
You're listening to the globalist. I broke on the tenth of January two thousand nineteen on monocle twenty four the globalist in association with UBS. Hello. This is the globalist coming to you live from Midori house in London. I'm Georgina Godwin on the show ahead. Involve you, there should not be a second referendum. What we see in? Parliament is some people who are advocating a second referendum because they want to stop Brexit parliament is taking back control in Britain. So they say and the house of Commons says approved a controversial amendment that will make Brexit even more difficult for Theresa May. We'll get the latest can't look at the options. Shinzo obey. The Japanese Prime minister is also worried about Brexit. He's in London to support. Mrs may we'll look at the trade implications of leaving the European Union and how tractive Britain is to Asia. Now, the Congo was all set to welcome the first democratic election in the country since independence in nineteen sixty accept it doesn't seem to have been very democratic. After all we'll ask why the country's so important to the region and examine the route to its issues with free and fair elections. When also take a look at the late. I in menswear from Florence with a report from pity Ormeau with papers business news to that's all ahead right here on the globalist live from London. Tensions ramping up in the British parliament, a head of the meaningful voice on the Brexit deal on Tuesday yesterday MP's began five days of debate on Mrs Maes withdrawal agreement with the EU and the framework for future relations the controversial amendment has been passed by the house. Meaning that should the prime minister lose the vote, which is believed to be likely she'll have just three days to present an alternative plan is also thought that the opposition labor party may call vote of no confidence in the government at that point with the support of some rebel members of maize conservatives. Well, join to explore the tangled web by Lance price. Who was Tony Blair director of communications when he was prime minister lawns. Thanks for coming on this morning. Tell us what transpired in parliament yesterday. Round in Paul when the speeches unusual step of the accepting been which basically times hands ties to easy maze hands as prime minister means of inspecting pond jets clans or the drill from the your view. Then that she have to come back within three days. They've about three weeks. He's what she would have had under the under the previous engines now impartiality speaker's impartiality was questioned, but he presses ahead on N P sports of the pastas. I'm not being taxed and you got to come to a head. I the index week all the very beginning of the week opted there because he's watching days that she has to come back with a little tentative bolstered upon this today. We saw some signs all the new proposals that she thinks will persuade him. He's back plan into the aggressor. All the northern autumn to descend merely which is actually sitting at the bone to that study meaningless. I also, I know impulsive, but it does look like bones concessions are going to be enough to get through. So she will probably lose the vote on cheese day she'll released Tuesday. I am nothing. The automobile moves on the walk next scenario all scenarios, which there are many. And and I think pretty quick admitted to tesla field tendencies, and while the government will furious. This was put to the tool talked yesterday full student choose event to come back within three days, actually, they're not abrasive it, and it maybe that it works to trees as well. Because if she can demonstrate or parliament dozen states that Knowles services has jersey has problems. Then then that means that her zeal is still hasn't been pulse is still what has to be an amended change or modify to try to get more supportive possible than in parliaments, and maybe to her about the things come to hand student role. So labor says that it will call for a vote of no confidence in the government. If in fact, the vote doesn't go through will happen. Well, there's sort of sorts of games and a couple of from benches as a leading figures in the in the labor party did say that been. Just been comforted. Government would follow it batteries. Derby pool spins and yesterday pointed the refused so in terms of Labour's tactics and still keeping constant the chance. Bitten should probably still lost. Which means that's the option of gentlemen. It actually would be taken off the table. And I think that's important about the next seven to ten days is one by one other options will be taking all the table. And if the ultra the Nexans, they think the table, then what made it does next is. Absolutely appreciate because if the labor party's hold or significant number favorite and peas could be swayed toback something a bit much museum as deal closer to what policy woman's then would would command. This has what does the labor party won't? Well, this is impossible to be even closer to European. You did choose me steal would allow he's right for the outset is ruled out customs union or membership Oppy single markets. Now if our. Lot of crickets, the conservative party on the on the stone Brexit season. Actually, it's pretty close to Judy anyway. So we didn't even closer with. It's just that you could get enough neighbor MP's or even intentionally the whole of coffee just folded lounge finally in the case of no deal and continued kale's. Do you think the UK's done enough to secure trading partners and instill confidence outside of Europe? We're gonna be talking about Shinzo Abbas visit to Britain in a moment is Japan, the only country to have concerns. The world concerns, and they're very very real concerns in the UK as well. So there's older muster about how? Well, the country could offer new deal Brexit of a little bit of destruction. But then everybody was assaulted self out most of these seventy majority peas recognize that sympathies through that we are totally overpainted for new Brexit of doing her own trade deals around the world. And then why not do but sitting creasing me as Todd's? And and that's one of the reasons that had been muscles in the way that they have Lance. Thank you very much. Indeed that was launched price there. Here's what else would keeping an eye on today. Australia's foreign minister is in Bangkok as congress considers an asylum application by an eighteen year old Saudi woman who says her family want to kill her row have Muhammed Al Quran is currently at a Bangkok hotel under the care of the United Nations refugee agency. She was initially refused entry to Thailand. But later barricaded herself inside a transit lounge and refused to board a flight back to Saudi Arabia. China has accused Canada of double standards and says the nation is disregarding. It's judicial sovereignty the Chinese ambassadors. Comments came as a diplomatic row continues over the arrest of executive may one Joe at the request of the United States and an open letter by the European Union's, parliamentary delegation for relations has sharply criticized what it pulls the White House is increasingly harmful approach to transatlantic relations. The fifty eight member delegation is calling on congress to help strengthen and not undermine ties. This is the globalist. Stay tuned. Shinzo lobby. The Japanese Prime minister will meet his British counterpart today in London it's thought that he'll endorse Theresa May's proposed deal with the EU at a press conference after the meeting other soft in the Netherlands on his way, which is where some Japanese firms concerned about the lack of clarity around Brexit. The set up offices to ensure that they have an operational base in Europe in the event of new deal. The UK absorbs forty percent of Japanese investment destined for the EU. We're his John Nelson. Right. Who's a senior lecturer in Japanese, politics, and international relations, Cambridge and a senior research fellow for northeast Asia with Chatham house. John good morning to you. British officials say that this is not a panicked effort to gain influential overseas support for maize deal, whether or not that's true might obey and Japanese business businesses be just as punished as Britain. Well, I think the prospect of the no deal and a crash out of the European Union is something that for obvious reasons. The Japanese particularly concerned about you remember that in the aftermath, of course of the referendum. It was the Japanese who set up a an investigative process with ram to three months and produce a sixteen page letter setting out Japan's concerns and since then the Japanese government has been assiduous in pushing the British government to provide greater clarity greater transparency and oversee promised to obey once a deal to be reached and once prime minister deal to be endorsed. But of course, the reality is all the predictions of suggesting next week prime minister may we'll lose that vote. And therefore, it's quite understandable. Why prime minister obey on this visit which has been planned for some time is keen to reiterate his message that a deal should be agreed beyond that. Of course, the prime minister will want to know, what are the contingency plans? If that deal is voted them next week as we. Effect. Well, it sort of numbers of Japanese firms of moving to the Netherlands all other places in Europe because of Brexit is it significant. Well, I think there is a real desire tickly on the part of comedy factors who've come out just in anticipation of this. Visit was a piece published today in the financial times setting out the use of Honda Nissan Toyota in expressing their concern and desire to have greater clarity. But at this stage, of course, having invested since the nineteen eighty s in establishing auto plants in the UK, the Japanese car companies aren't about suddenly move lock stock and barrel out of the United Kingdom. But they do have to make these very important contingency plans. And I think what we're seeing is a real effort by these very important companies who invested in good faith. And there is a real sense. I think that having been so committed to the United Kingdom is such a long time that they feel that the British government should if you like. Find as Lucien that on his those commitments, and so is Ave likely or able to bring any pressure to on MRs may about the future of Japanese companies in the UK. I don't think he can really shift the needle in Tim's of the political fundamentals. But of course, this meeting is not just about Brexit. There are other things at the prime minister's looking to discuss with the prime minister, we've had talked for example of Britain joining CPT P D eleven nation free trade agreement that Stobbe has been pushing quite deliberately in the aftermath of Donald Trump's decision to pull out of that deal. And of course, part of that is based on the fear that Britain. Of course, we'll end up without a workable deal, and therefore the imperative to to look at other bilateral multilateral trade agreements becomes that that much more important than are, of course, other areas where Britain and Japan can do a lot more together. And I think it's worth emphasizing that this will be part of the discussions between the two prime ministers development assistance in Africa security cooperation in which Britain and Japan have made some very important progress in recent years dealing with the threat of North Korea. Even for example, the role of Hitachi in building nuclear reactors in the United Kingdom these are areas where there is room for greater cooperation between the two countries. And in terms of separate trae dilemma isn't the free trade deal actually with the EU an means that Britain would not have too much be able to be a positive it. That's true. But there is a positive dimension to hear the agreement between the EU and Japan is opened up space in the cultural sector, and I understand that one of the agreements between Britain and Japan will be reached a decision on the part of the Japanese to lift the ban on British beef imports BSE, contaminated beef was an issue back in the nineteen ninety s and Mr. Ave is bringing if you like present with him to the British Prime minister, the possibility the quite likely possibility that ban on British beef will be relaxed as well as other agriculture. Cocoa products, lamb, three example, lamb exports Japan. So in the in the trade sector there is some good news for the two countries particularly Britain looking ahead this year with Britain with Japan hosting the G twenty summit in all sokaia. There will be discussions. I'm sure between the two countries about how best to prepare for that. Also Japan will be hosting the rugby World Cup. This. Another area where of course, the cultural ties between the two countries. So there's a look that can be discussed, but will be see the elephant in the room. If you like the big issue that worries Japanese is, of course, Brexit because of that heavy investment in the United Kingdom. Do you think that after Brexit Britain will still be an attractive trading partner, not only for the Japan, but for Asia, and in fact, the rest of the world. Well, that's the sixty thousand dollar question. Isn't it really? I mean, it's a question of how. How isolated Britain is depending on what happens with the Brexit deal. There's no doubt that there's a real appetizer on the part of British the British government. British ministers, of course, have been keen to stress the importance of ties with Japan, but it's ability to compensate for the huge economic reality that European represents is very questionable. I think on the part of British of Japanese companies there is an affinity with the United Kingdom a long history of close ties. But companies have to be pragmatic, and will as a as you rightly point out to be looking at developing alternative opportunities in the European Union. If the worst happens, and there is no deal at the end of March Joan finally Theresa May, maybe pleased to see a, but he might not receive a pleasant welcome from the British public. There are planned protests against Japan's decision to reestablish commercial whaling. Yes. That has been to some extent a bit of a surprise. I think the decision from Japan. Of course, the issue of wailing in a way goes against the grain of Japan's frequently emphasized commitment to the rule of law, and international institutions. This unilateral decision doesn't help Japan in terms of maintaining that consistent position in supporting those international institutions, and critics of Japan's down some wailing will be pointing at that problem within Japan. I think there is perhaps a sense that even if access to to wailing is not something that really matters to the average Japanese citizen. There are sitting communities which have a long tradition of whaling in Japan for whom the politics of this border mister bay being sensitive to that but small protests, probably, yes, which will cost a little bit of a cloud over the visit. But I think overall this should probably be. A successful visit in terms of the public atmospherics, and and promised they will be wanting to emphasize his common interests with his British counterpart as part of his broader agenda stressing Japan's proactive role in foreign policy Jonathan right? Thank you very much. Indeed. Maybe s has nine hundred investment analysts from over one hundred different countries over nine hundred of the shop is Moen's and freshest thinkers in the world of finance today. The one no small and find out how we can help you contact us at UBS dot com. Now for many of us the unique format and orderly construction of a printed newspaper delivers information in a way that nothing else can and for Thomas Bernhardt, it's vanishing all too quickly. He's the chief protagonist of the last newspaper reader a book by Mikhail and gala, which chronicles the vanishing world of printed papers monocle recently adopted the book into an audio cereal and all this week. We'll be getting a sneak peek is part four of the series. the newspaper is still a part of all of that. But all of that is slowly disappearing because the papers disappearing it may be the case that this process will go on for years centuries. Even maybe the case, the newspaper will even experience a small renaissance, but still it is disappearing. No one's in doubt of that. But not everyone recognizes the loss that this disappearance entails a whole culture is in fact as appearing, and I'm not intern able to discern that this culture is giving way to a new one just as rich even though I have for a long time been a resident of both worlds the analog and the digital. And by now, spend more time on Spiegel online than reading the effort said the daily paper is disappearing because it is outdated because day no longer rules over the flow of information. That's true. But the speed which newspaper falls out of date was already an issue when only newspapers existed. There's nothing older than yesterday's newspaper is the signature of the newspaper era. But that doesn't always hold true. This sentence. Didn't hold true for d for example, when he was in hospital reading the F said that he'd bought at the kiosk the previous day. Neither does it. Hold true for anyone who's on holiday on the country yesterday's newspaper is the best proof that you'll really somewhere else on vacation. You can only get yesterday's paper. If you've got your hands on a German newspaper from the same day, you may as well, go straight back home you not on holiday. That's how it was in the golden age of newspaper reading that's how it still is today. We spend our last some holiday in Brittany. We rented a small house with a family. We're close to the hamlet a few kilometers from the coast. You couldn't boy newspapers in town. There wasn't any shops at all. But of course, we had our laptops with us, and we'd get a guilty conscience whenever we booted them up not only to keep abreast of the Gaza war and Spiegel online. But also to fritter away time on Facebook. The father of the family didn't go on Facebook, very often he read German newspapers and the end set set on his ipad. And when later in the day, we visited the small town on the sea. He bought lemon LeBron's and the Kenosha ni. I kept quiet about the fact I was plundering about newspaper reading that. I might even ROY little book about it. I didn't want him to feel like he was being observed and change his behavior a problem. That's well known in the field of -nology. If I told him he might not have routinely shoved the newspaper in his trouser pocket and started through the small town from who streets. Newspapers had as good as disappeared whereby you have to admit that the place may be pretty, but it's geared up for regional tourism Benelux crime stories, which Lear so many people to Brittany are set. Elsewhere foreign papers were available in the stationery shop, but you had to ask for them the shop assistant through an unsorted bundle on the table from which I pulled out the previous day's deutscher and sat down in the cafe opposite from which the melody of a hit by alphaville emanated. I flick through these deutscher, and I looked over at the fishing boats, which were dozing in the midday sun in the end. I'd only read the spotlight section, which I hardly ever read in Berlin anymore, although often intend to so I hadn't read a lot. But I had read de Gloser who satirical commentary, which is one of the best things about the newspaper, which I read all too seldom it felt good. L also only read a fraction of the French newspapers. He'd bought he immersed himself in the canal, Chanel least of all the articles in the NADA, certainly very challenging. But the fact that he read so little of it low. His French is enviable studied in Paris had another reason reading highbrow newspapers on holidays like weeding the local program to see what you could do that evening only to fall asleep in front of the television as soon as you get home from work on average. You might read two articles the main one on the front page and a medium size one inside the paper. Most attempts to save the newspaper assume that people want to read newspaper. They don't consider that people might procure a newspaper simply to be able to read it after all that wouldn't make much sense. But that's how it is in many cases, and it applies to periodical are magazines even more. So so not only did my friend hardly read the cannot Shanna. He also didn't work through the bundle of New Yorkers. We brought along for him before getting on the plane with his family. He gives us a suitcase that we had to squeeze into our cars we've box we assumed it contained clothes and toys can never crossed our minds that someone would have older she's of the New Yorker delivered to him. Neither is the obvious purpose of a collection of New Yorkers to read back issues on holiday, nor is the obvious purpose. A holiday to read old New Yorkers, but it did have its purpose. He read a couple of articles and seemed satisfied this too is well known from the history of ethnology the researcher take. On the behavior of their research subject. We went on a trip to pay impo- with the firm intention of buying a novel. I went into a bookshop and found a novel about Paris under your Pompidou later. I read about twenty pages on the beach. Never touched it again. It wasn't bad. But you should have bought Pierre's, Latinos, and Iceland fisherman. I told myself that one is set in pine po-. Then again, I wouldn't have read any more of an Iceland fisherman than of Paris under George Pompidou. And that was the fourth installment of Monaco's audio cereal the last newspaper reader by Mikhail and gala, you can listen to the full story by tuning into print industry review program. The stuck. We'll details, of course on our website. Twenty four minutes past seven in London. You're listening to the globalist with me Georgina Godwin. And joining me in the studio is Charles Hecke's senior partner control risk. Good morning. Good morning. We are here to have a look through the newspapers unsurprisingly. Of course, Brexit dominates the headlines, that's already I think we have to make some sort of nod to the fact that even though this was covering great deal at the top of the broadcast that every single one of the British daily papers with their broadsheet or tabloid has the domestic Brexit developments essentially in six column headlines across every front page is that much variation in coverage. It's all incredibly predictable. So if you go to one end of the political spectrum, this is a massive parliamentary crisis and a coup being fostered by the speaker of the house, if you go to the other side of the political spectrum, this is a completely reasonable move that. Any responsible speaker of the house would have done given the opportunity. So I mean, this this is an issue that's not going to go. It's carried on the inside of most papers as well. And the photography actually is tentacle in every paper and quite interesting. And there's this amazing Tableau of speakers on berko, the at the head of the house of Commons surrounded by his clerks, and by MP's, and by people in various sort of parliamentary regalia, and it has this almost sort of religious symbolism to it of the sort of Tableau that you might see above an altar. It's very it. Looks like a renaissance painting. Yes, exactly right now, there's another picture that's dominating the rest of the front pages of. That's right. What little little spaces left on the front pages of the international newspapers is devoted to the fact that Jeff Bezos the founder of Amazon is getting divorced. This is in part a social society story, but it. Is of course, very very serious business story. But before we get to that I sort of have to say that I think this is a very 2019 divorce where currently Mr. MRs visas, Jeff Jesus and his wife MacKenzie have issued a joint statement where they say that after a long period of loving exploration and trial separation. We will remain cherished friends and continue our shared lives as friends, which is extremely modern approach to divorce and makes people think that perhaps there's not that much acrimony in this separation. What there is in this divorce is an enormous pile of money. Jeff Bezos is reportedly worth a hundred thirty seven billion dollars. That's billion with a B since the time that he started Amazon in his garage in nineteen Ninety-four and the beezus family is at least partially. Residing in the state of Washington state of Washington says that any property acquired in the course of marriage is automatically held jointly by the couple no matter who did the heavy lifting. And of course, they got married a year before he started zone. That's exactly right. So this puts the soon to be no longer MRs Bezos in the position of of acquiring sixty eight point five billion dollars, unless there is some sort of pre-nuptial agreement that dictates otherwise, we don't know about that. And the papers haven't discovered that yet. So that would make MRs Bezos the wealthiest woman in the world ahead of the heiress to the Laurie. Al fortune Francois's petanque were Myers head of the Queen of England and ahead of JK Rowling. Some of the other papers have asked whether or not this leads to a show. Holder crisis at the company what happens to management happens to the stewardship of Amazon. This will all play out as the divorce goes through the courts and goes through proceedings, but it is an enormous business transaction in addition to a family process, the lately in house out that it would have to be splashed all over the front pages at a very difficult personal time. Indeed, let's move onto the team. Now. This is very interesting when it comes to the Moore investigation. Tell us about the story, right? So on page four of the F T, we see that rod Rosenstein, who is of course, the second in command at the United States Department of Justice and the guarantor essentially of the continuity of the Robert Muller investigation into President Trump, Mr. Rosenstein has signaled that he's going to leave the Justice department as we know President Trump sacked Jeff. Jeff Sessions, the previous attorney general the head of the Justice department and confirmation hearings for his replacement William bar or beginning next week. Mr. bar has indicated that he's going to bring his own deputy into the Justice department. So it's time for Mr. Rosenstein to go. He is saying that this is all normal and managed and part of the process of change in leadership in that he's not being forced out. But this is done two things. It's triggered two reactions on the first is how much jeopardy does this place. The Muller investigation in if it's primary shepherd, Mr. Rosenstein is leaving the department an so Q a lot of gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands over how safe the Muller investigation is number one. And number two. It has triggered massive speculation that the Muller investigation might actually be very close to ending because Mr. rose. Stein under no circumstances would leave the Justice department and expose the Muller investigation to the potential threat of a shutdown or a cutoff or any political pressure. So this one move is actually triggered quite a strong reaction has he said when he's going to go which might give us an indication of when we could see me results, they'll be a brief transition period for a handover, but he's going to be gone. You know in the next few weeks, so Muller's gonna either have to wrap it up fairly quickly, or there may be some sort of guarantee that the new attorney general William bar will not shut him down. Interestingly in some of the coverage of this indicates that bar and Muller, actually, friends, and that their wives attend a bible. Study course together. Well, I they're praying for the right outcomes. Drones of back in the news again this right now that we're all back from our holiday travels. We learn that UK airports or attack are tackling the drone problem. You will recall, of course, the drama surrounding the shutdown of Gatwick on the eve of the holiday travel rush. And he threw itself was down very briefly earlier this week as the result of drone incursions near the airport. So the F T has a piece, but also on page eleven of the times, we learned that Heathrow is on the verge of spending ten million pounds to install drewn detectors anti-drunk devices drone signal jammers and is also considering widening the exclusion zone around the airport trying to keep drones at a safer distance from the runways. It's extraordinary that it has to take a crisis for this to happen. Well, exactly and the ironic thing about what happened at Heathrow, according to the times as actually that when the drones started appearing around the airport, the managers of Heathrow ordered up an instant shipment of expensive defense department anti-drunk technology that arrived later in the day. And by that time the drones for that day had already disappeared if they'd ever been that. Because of course, there was some doubt about that. But that's right. We were getting a little bit confused between drones and perhaps you Afo sightings when it came to Gatwick. Well, talking of UFO's mysterious radio-wave bust could be from aliens. That's right Virginia, you'll recall in this very room last year. We were discussing the appearance of a USO in the shape of a UFO in the shape of a cigar that came from outer space in past fairly close to earth. This time we've got radio signals coming in our direction. And this is not a group of crackpot saying this is again, another hard. Vard's? Scientists telling us that these these coordinated brief bursts of repetitive radio signals from outer space from deep space. They could be the result of a black hole. They could be the result of stars colliding. But this scientists is suggesting that possibly this is actually a high tech phenomenon and is coming from transmitters somewhere else in the universe and the popular reaction on social media to the suggestion has been, you know, please leave us alone. Busy with all of our own things right now, you know, not now govern favor. Thanks. We tells very much indeed that was child Hecker now still to come on the program. We hear the latest on elections in the Congo. This is the globalist. UBS global financial services firm with over one hundred fifty years of heritage built on the unique dedication of all people. We bring fresh thinking in perspective to our work, and we know that it takes a marriage of intelligence and haunt to create lasting value for. It's about having the rights ideas, of course. But it was time about having one of the most accomplished systems and unrivaled network of global experts. That's why at UBS we pride ourselves on thinking smarter to make a real difference. June in weekly to the bulletin with UBS for all the latest insights and opinions from UBS and experts from around the world. There's never been a peaceful democratic transfer of power in the Democratic Republic of Congo. But no, forty six million people voted in. What's hopes all the first democratic elections since nineteen sixty when Belgian colonial rule ended, but with huge delays in the voted self under nouncement of the results as well as his Asians of fraud and fears of violence democracy is by no means guaranteed in the Elliott of the smoothing with riot police on standby opposition leader, Felix cheeses Kennedy was named as the winner by the constitutional court. Well with me now is ugly to covers west and central Africa at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Thanks much for coming before we discussed the wind. Can you just tell us a little bit about the circumstances under which these elections were held share? So the less term of urges f- Kabila outgoing president's where supposed to end two years ago in two thousand sixteen but that didn't happen because basically. It's Whiteley believed that he was trying to to stay in power. But the brusher domestically and internationally really increase quickly, and he had to announce that he was going to have election, and he announced that petition he will would would run for the for the FCC. So that happened a couple of months ago, we had election in Semper. And we strongly believed cherry will be the the front runner, but at that plan for for caveat to have his potato winning this election in order to protect his interest face difficulties. And this is because we had results on social media media that began became widespread and that was ring clear lead for one of the obsession leader who was. So there were two main opposition leaders facing it was fixed security who has been provisionally the winner of elections. And so that was an expected for the Cadillac camp. They didn't expect such strong support for you. And these these results on social media was carry for them. So they decided to cut into nets, basically. So so that prompted widespread fear that they would manipulate results. One of the turning point was when the Catholic church responded to that. And they basically said that they had observers everywhere in the country forty thousand observers actually, which is massive. And they said that with the results they have they could say who could be the winner of these elections and the Catholic church in the important is really powerful force. So that increased the pressure again regime so over the. The best couple of days. I would say that that there was there were rumors of anew option, and you plan for the Kabila regime, which was to approach chickadee. So that's not official, of course. But that could be the least bad attorney for the Cadillac regime, basically because a presidency with Tshisekedi is more manageable than presidency for you presidency. With Vialli would have come with big risks for the regime, and delete and inner circle of the of Kabila because he's he has been constant in his position to the regime, basically one fixture security. It's a much more manageable alternative in the sense that if he becomes a threat to the Kabila regime or to the his inner circle in way, he's still has an option which is the. The fact that the diploma of security has been announced as maybe a contemplates diploma. So to get has diploma that he passed in Belgium, and I think it was yesterday or two days ago. There was an announcement that the in Brussels that they did not have a record of diploma. So you need a diploma this diploma to be able to run in the elections in the so basically, there's this kind of an ano how say leverage on chicken. So now, we have these provisional results. The problem is that there are big risks. The first one Lou has rejected the results this Kurds Cho's popular like poplar unrests of his supporters, which seems to be a massive. Amount of people. But most importantly is what the Catholic church is going to say now. So as I said, they are a really strong and popular actor in jersey. So yeah, so America has ordered its citizens to leave the country. There's already been so much violence in the lead up to this poll, and so many cases of fraud. Anyway, do you sit and riot police were on standby full? This announcement is violence likely. I mean, you talking about the supporters of fairly that's apparently around six point four million people potentially very explosive situation. Finance is likely. You're right. I mean. When when you have an election with such a week, and fraudulent a process, it just likes credibility. And when you have a process that lacks credibility opens the way to a rejection of the results, and therefore protests, and and this if it's the case will be met with harsh crackdown spot the by the regime now, we know that Congo matters hugely to the wider world. It's just country in Africa touches, so many other African countries. And of course, it's hugely mineral rich, whatever happens in the Congo now impacts everywhere, but can this lack of democracy, betrays bucks through histories structural? I mean, why does different fire elections have real issues here. So I think you're right to say that did you see is important to the region. We saw that during the second kogo war, the the violence instability there quickly sect in the neighboring countries. So it is important to to keep in mind that the the country is important is important to the region. What are the structural issues in in this country? I think I is important to say that having an election having cabbie link Cadillac to stand down having an election where you had a massive amount of people turning out and peacefully is showing that is there is an increase in particular spacious. So I think there is potential for democracy gains in the country, and is something we've seen across the region. But as you say, there are still major obstacles to the consolidation of democracies in the region in in the and despair because of for Jilin and flowed, Alexa, pussies, but also because of restriction and civil liberties. Week functioning government, which are characterized with with a pervasive network of corruption. So yes, I think overall democratic gains are potentially something that we could see in the region in the country, but the region still is way of other regions in terms of the advance of democracy loudly. And thank you very much. Indeed, that's Vanhoudt. It's time to business next. Join me on the line as the financial analyst Lewis Kupa. Louise, I want to say happy new year, but it wasn't particularly for retailers. No. So we we've had a report from the British retail consortium out this morning looking at sales trends over Christmas, and they describe it as the worst Christmas for retail since two thousand eight which is called at the beginning of the financial crisis in the crash of the economy food sales was the only thing that really held up retail in the UK. And if you looked sort of fashion sales, non-food items, really very ugly with declines in what consumers spent so we know consume as being failing a little more concerned, maybe overspent a little bit over the warm lovely summer, but even online which has never been growing for some time growing, really strong strongly. Even online has slowed the growth as well. And then this morning, we've got a whole rough of UK retailers reporting that that Christmas trading foam. It's gone three one two three four five six of them. I've gone through six of them. So I can give you some highlights of those as well. I guess I would describe it as separating the wheat from the chaff. If you are a good retailer than you, probably did, okay. Over christmas. If you're not great in a weak position than it was ugly, and it was difficult. So how does the UK retail sales like car parts and bikes? They've issued a profit warning this morning saying it was very tough on them. You look big department stores. You've got John Lewis, which is kind of this. What would you describe him? It's like a op it's owned by its workers and its members John Lewis's Jonah que they got positive like for like sales in that strolls over there white trays that very expensive food business is not looking quite so good. But other department stores denims marks and Spencer is really looking ugly debit share price again a big little mid range department store. Dem share prices collapsed to pretty much nothing valuing that group at very little. They've got pretty ugly talking about UK like for like sales down over six percent. That is no STI Mark suspense used to be the biggest fashion retailer in the UK no longer than not doing particularly. Well, that clothing and home side, they're like for like sales down two point four percent and their food which had been up to about you'll so holding up the best of the holding business that food again like white choice, incredibly expensive even. Food site is down two percent. So those two department stores denims monks, not very good tool. John Lewis, though Smith quite unique for a department store is doing okay with positive light for likes. But don't get carried away the UK's. Biggest retailer Tesco. It's a big supermarket. A big food retailer how to new boss at the helm turning around for the last few years. They've done considering how tough it Spain very well with UK like for likes actually excel writing getting stronger over Christmas. So the Tesco numbers show. If you've got the right man at the top it really can make a difference because the other re to other food retailers had had didn't have a great Christmas. So the the strong getting stronger the weak getting weaker this retail violent is separating the weight from the chaff. Louise, thank you very much. Indeed, this is the globalist a monocle twenty four. Tool stories is a Wiki feature from the team behind the finest Monaco's progun what about the cities in which we live. So this week we had to New Zealand's capital Wellington when nestled into the side of a hill and on a quiet suburban street, you can find premier house the official residence of the country's prime minister his uncle's David Stevens with more on this homes rather colorful history. Well, Trump sleep soundly in the White House and South Korea's Moore. And John hangs says the Blue House to send an raises the first baby of residence that was once nine as the mid. Construction of the category. One here to building dates back to the infancy of the New Zealand colony Belton Wellington in eighteen forty three. It was originally intended for the city's first mayor George hunter. But when the capital city was packed up and shipped down south from Oakland and eighteen sixty five to it's now, comfortable harm amongst the hills of the Wellington harbour, the building became New Zealand's official residence step aside ten Downing Street the Kiwis have to sixty ten according road. So the street address might not be snappy. But the newly minted residents was sitting Leah buzz with peanuts. And the Knicks seventy years a total of nine premium four prime ministers called at home and aside from simply moving in the favorite pillows plants and pooches many of the occupants sit about renovating the property to make it their own. Gordon Coates the country's twenty PM rebuilt, the properties conservatory and even ended and enclosed verandah in nineteen twenty six, but by this point, the place at fallen into disrepair, and it required more than a bit of window-dressing to survive. By nineteen fifty five prime minister, Michael Savage, who was the properties Knicks potential Tina more than had his hands full rebuilding the country's economy during the great depression and decided to rebuild at two sixty inequality road wasn't with adding job Shaked, he declined the offer to take out residents there, hence also not voters even he was giving up some luxury during the economic downturn. And the country was without an official residence. The address was handed over to the healthcare sick and transformed into a children's into clinic where became known by every school could face the mouth full of filling wools by the slightly exaggerated. Monica. The mid a house. Vass to the nine thousand nine hundred and debate over the future of the property had come to a head. Then minister of internal is Michael Bessette the cleared. The house was to be restored to its former glory tomato. One hundred fiftieth anniversary of Wellington becoming the nation's capital. In nineteen ninety the fish PM move back into the freshly refurbish residents since then almost every prime minister has set up shop in the valley quotas, barring the give a slighted Bill English due to a New Zealand law prohibiting Wellington-based impis claiming taxpayer combination in the capital while John k inhaling Clack used more as a hotel than a home. You Zealand's newest leader to send Adan has moved on proper even placing social media p- dates from the catch with pedals Zealand's. Fisk cat who sadly died early month in office? And what lex some of the grandeur of the Kremlin will the security of the White House. You see on premium house seems to sum up the country quite well. A quiet little house and a quiet corner of the capital with dog walkers returning from stroll around the Wellington botanic gardens might catch. The prime minister putting rubbish bins perhaps collecting the mail, please just hard to another Bill. That was one ical. David Stevenson for more of gin to the oven. Est. That's tonight on twenty four nine thousand nine hundred London time, this is the globalist. It is fifty two minutes past the top of the hour. And we finish today's program with chest with Monaco's fashion editor, Jamie waters. He's currently in Florence reporting from pitchy, Houma, the unofficial for one of the most stylish weeks in the global calendar. He KOTA with Monica lls, Emma, Nelson to share some of his impressions from under the Tuscan sun. It's pretty good of I can't really comply. We've just been out having spaghetti and sort of Nagorno knees. And it's it's a beautiful city today, although very chilly of these freezing. But between taking welcome break from over eating and drinking. There's a small matter of Petit womb. Oh, how is that Bain today yet been really good? It's very busy season autumn. Winter is busier than the the summer season is just kind of big industry, but we're one of the big grand way shows tonight. And so what does really well, I mean. The main event is the Fortezza nuts where they told hundred brands have stance on everything. But then they also host a special sort of one off runway events is normally one to fake designers who stays kind of spectacular shows one of those two not on the designer y project which was a prison liable the credits to the Belgian got gun mountains on. It's very respected brand that's very cool at the moment. And what's good about PC? Today's runway intensities design is that for these my shirts time, the paper to Gabba the paper to kind of absorb the shows talk about them off with it's really experience. What happens in power special? Michael milan. Is this such a sheds will that people just running between shows? So if you're brand you put a lot of money into a show on then it's on social media on Instagram. Whatever people talking about it for ten minutes abroad to the next show. And it's all wiped out. I'm not the problem that brands have to contend with a PC all before because he's not people have time. So there's a really nice feeling about it. So the why project show to not it was held in the cloister courtyard of the Santa marina, Bella, which is this incredible church from the fourteen hundreds in the center of the city was in this courtyard that was Nord lighting it was very dark on people had torches sitting on these long benches around the courtyard sets a very spectacular setting that really makes the most of being in Florence. It was a men's and women's shore on it sort of started with is quite eerie Quant music on the motives were kind of clipping down. The, you know, the stones of this courtyard in the guys into the black boots. And the the goes had gold hails on various being a spot where it was a very interesting shore. And it kind of felt like can occur. Asian and I think that's one of the things PC really does. Well, isn't interesting idea to actually give you time to see what's on show. How does that actually change the way that you see the fashion? Do you actually spend more time thinking about appreciating it more? Or is it still that whole thing about having to give an immediate reaction before we move onto the next thing. I think you do appreciate it more. You're in a kind of different mindset. I think even walking into this show. It said it was Pam shore. But only she started at seven so for our people we've walked through the centre in Avella and paper with just just wondering around the church and shining torches around and looking at, you know, the incredible data on the sailing, and you're in a different head space because you do have a bit more time that wouldn't happen at a normal fashion. Paper don't have now you would miss the next show. So I think that is the sense of. Curiosity that you have unequivocally after the show people are going to drink things like that. But that is not a runway show straight afterwards way to baiting the show talking about with different people. A was kind of gathered outside there's a different failing around the which makes it an incredible platform for the design as well. Because they do have the getting all this attention on them on just on that note. There's another one tomorrow, not the second my show. It's a brand new label and the designers could outta Maria Camilla men. Hayes had an amazing suppressed aegis career previously is been designer Zana Valentino Trucy Baluchi or these amazing European houses some brick cited sable Hayes gonna bring with his short. But yet, it's I think it's just an amazing plot designs on it's really nice frost as well. That we kind of have time to absorb what they're doing saying stuff up close D see how the fashion system, really. Really works. Given the fact that you do have that time, and you can see the per factions and the other things that make pushing on enormous show, really real those trainings. I think with the runway shows it's more about you saying the closing movement against the music. It's kind of the whole it's more of an emotional thing. And I think it's about the ho- spectacle. I think in terms of like feeling the clothes and saying the data. That's where the actual trade show is so good. And that's why I think PC works so well ferments by because menswear really is about the details. Generally, I knew see how it all works. And kind of it's a very stressful industry if a Boston sort of in the wrong place, which seems trivial, but if design is just not quite rot. You know? This is chance to show it tool the buys, these Shaw met a lot of money spent a lot of money on the so there's a lot of pressure for them. And you kind of use your say the workings up close and that Jamie will and that's all we have time for today. Thanks to produces Augustine much. Larry and Ben Ryland our researches page rentals Nicholson stadium manager today was David Stevens who'll give excellent tool stories package after the headlines. There's more music on the way on the continental shift Marcus hippie will be in the presentative that the briefing is live at day with Ben Ryland today. The program will be looking at the latest developments in the United States on the twentieth day of the government shutdown. President Trump walked out of a meeting late yesterday after senior Democrats refused to negotiate on their refusal of funding for border wall. I think he said five by as he went more details on the briefing at midday, and I'll be back with you on Saturday for the weekend edition that. Of course is our I wouldn't call it a variety program shot programming. Lots of great music, and of course, lots of great interviews, including meet the Rice's, my guest this week is John lunch. Stor who's written a book called the wool? Now. It's billed as disturbed in fiction. Sadly, it seems to be becoming all too true. So do chain into that fifteen hundred. Did on Saturday. I'm Georgina Godwin, Frankie Phyllis.