Rookie RB Fantasy Projections
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Megan and Austin should probably tell you all my name's Ross Tucker a former NFL player five teams seven years now. I think I got five podcasts. I do over seven days. So Nice and symmetrical. Joe Mentioned Greg Cosell. We're going to continue our COSELL's concepts to morrow on the Ross. Tucker Football podcast. You can hear our week one bets. It was glorious with Steve Fezzet yesterday on the podcast. Andrew Brandt with some interesting comments about maybe even the NFL decreasing the salary cap this year. So that the decrease next year is in as bad. Joe We need to finish up the rookie draft and what it means in terms of a fantasy impact. Whether it's best ball drafts or dynasty season-long whatever couple of weeks ago. We did the quarterbacks last week we did the wide receivers today. We will do the rookie running backs. And we will start with Clyde Edwards Hilar- the only rookie running back. Who landed in round one? I thought there was a chance at a multiple guys. Go in round one just at the back end of the round but the surprised people a little bit by making Edwards alerted the first running back off the board. But you if you listen to them. Talk about him after the draft. It probably shouldn't be all that surprising. Everybody knows right now that apparently Andy Reid went to his general manager Bret feed each who was also with Andy when he was in Philadelphia and Compared Edwards. Allaire stylistically to Brian Westbrook. And he told breads thought he was a better prospect and that kind of bears out. This is the first time in Andy. Reid coached football. Team has drafted a running back in the first round and remember. Andy's been coaching being. He's been a head coach since nineteen ninety nine. This is the first time on his team's has drafted running back in the first round up. So that just goes to show you especially given the discussion about the value of the running back position. That especially tells you what the chiefs thought of this player so that is. That's phenomenal news for Edwards hilarious fantasy outlook the implications of this for fantasy. He's a great receiver. I think that's a number one for the Kansas City chiefs the Kansas City chiefs Andy. Reed's always been passed. Heavy Patrick Mahomes gives them the reason to be more past heavy than he's ever been but Clyde Edwards Allaire is a fantastic receiver. Andy Reid has always gotten great production out of the running back position dating back to do. Staley his first couple years in Philadelphia. Then Brian Westbrook will shawn McCoy. Jamaal Charles Kareem Hunt of the flashes. We saw out of Damian Williams even some Spencer ware in his time in in Kansas City. The running back position produces in Andy. Reed's offense he is fantasy friendly at that spot now. Of course they're going to say well Damian Williams is going to be involved at and you might be but you have to look at the facts. You look at the facts. The Kansas City made a luxury pick Damian Williams arguably could have been the super bowl. Mvp and they still drafted Edwards layer in the first round. This is a luxury pick for a team that is loaded. The chiefs probably didn't even need him and they still drafted him. You can argue all you want about the value of traffic but I think it's fantastic news for For fantasy value. Now take a listen to this over. The last two seasons Damian Williams has played sixty percent or more of the chiefs snaps in eleven games in those eleven games. He's averaged twenty five fantasy points per game for context Christian. Mccaffrey averaged twenty nine. Point five in his ridiculous twenty nine thousand nine season so dean Williams if you extrapolate that over the full a full sixteen games condensed into one year he would have been the RB to and they drafted Clyde Edwards to be their starting running back the chiefs understand running back value. They also understand good. Football players and Edwards layer is a good football player. I think he starts right away. I am willing to take him as early as the second round and Redraft Leagues and he is the number. One Overall. Pick in rookie dynasty drafts. Let's move on to the next back off the board and that was de'andre swift to to the lions to pair with Kerryon Johnson. This one not so great a landing spot for fantasy now and this is this is a good exercise to remember how important landing spot is because it the chiefs. May de'andre swift there pick thirty second overall and Clyde Edwards. Allaire went to the lion's at thirty fifth overall. You might you might flip them on my dynasty ranks. I currently have Edwards. Allaire one swift five at running back. It might be swift one Edwards. Allaire five if these if these landing spots switched so it looks pretty evident that Matt Patricia. Bob Quinn want to have a running back committee you remember. Even when Kerryon Johnson was a rookie and he was playing really well they kept rotate eating him. With Garrett Blunt who was doing absolutely nothing and then carry on. Johnson came out and look like a plotter in his second year. Now I think the Andrea swift the most talented running back here. I think Greg. Cosell on this very podcast. Compared him to Dalvin Cook he's playing behind the just an okay offensive line. They seem to really want to rotate them. I love them as a prospect. I think for Fantasies. Kinda BOOMER BUST PICK THIS YEAR. Maybe things change maybe carry on. Johnson can't stay healthy again. Maybe twenty twenty one. The Lions Make a coaching staff. Change and de'andre swift becomes a thirteen hundred yard back. Who can add you? Five six hundred yards receiving navy. That happens I don't think that's in the cards. This year. Aggressive fantasy players might start considering him around the seventh or eighth rounded redraft leagues. And he's still kind of first. Half of the first round rookie dynasty drafts but the landing spot is certainly not pristine here for the Andrea Swift up next Jonathan Taylor to the colts curious to get your thoughts on this one. I'm not gonNA over think this I'm GonNa look at the positives here When when we don't have anything else to talk about but the NFL draft and we're doing our best ball. Drafts are high stakes drafts. At this point you might be able to kind of twist yourself into a pretzel rationalizing four or rationalizing against certain players. And I think Jonathan Taylor is one of them because if you look at the facts Marlon Mac has gained one thousand nine hundred and ninety nine rushing yards over the last two seasons essentially a thousand yards a year. Nine hines has caught one hundred seven passes over the last two seasons so if you look at the baseline numbers running back. Didn't seem to be experience. Need for the colts. Especially if you buy into the fact that the running back position is more product of the offensive line than of the than of the players talent itself because this is a great offensive line arguably the best in the entire NFL. But then you look at the fact that the colts traded up for Jonathan Tail. They treat it up for him. They traded in front of Jacksonville. Which seems to say to me that they fear Jacksonville. Who is trying to replace? Leonard Fournette this off season wanted Jonathan Taylor. He's Co Jonathan. Taylor is a great prospect. I just an he tested out of the building in Indianapolis at the combine. Kind of funny that. That's that happened in. The colts drafted him and now he's playing behind. Philip rivers behind a great offensive line. Philip rivers is not somebody you want dropping back forty forty five times a game right now. I think he needs a sustaining run. Game behind them. He will get that with Jonathan Taylor who by the way arguably could be the most underrated receiver at his position in this class as well the the offensive line is Great. Taylor's a big back. He's got outrageous athleticism. I don't think the colts drafted Jonathan Taylor to give them five to eight carries. I don't think they drafted Jonathan Taylor to rotate him in a three-man backfield with Marla Mac. And Naim hines. That doesn't mean those guys aren't going to get some snaps here and there but I think it would be a just a horrific misuse of resources and horrific misuse of Taylor skill set if the colts pegged him as a rotational back. I think he's the one to win. Rookie drafts and I think he can go off the board as early as the third round in redrafts I think right away he is their lead back and I expect them to get fifteen or more carries per game makers to the rams interesting ahead of guys like jk Dobbin they wanted camakers to the rams in part to replace Todd Gurley well. There's a couple of schools of thought here. Do the rams no value the running back position and many would argue. They don't because of the contract to talk early and then the fact that they spent a third round pick last year on Daryl Henderson and then spent a second round. Pick this year on camakers. My other my other point here is and the other school of thought is how much they not like. Darrell Henderson because the guy was a third round pick last year they trade up to get him and then he didn't even play a hundred offensive snaps last year and then they come out and spend a second round pick on a running back arguably a position. They don't need Henderson and Malcolm Brown there. What this says to me is I think camakers at some point is going to be the rams lead back this year The thing about Henderson is there is there are reports that he struggled to pick up. The Rams Offense Sean McVeigh's offense I don't think I think the rams probably liked what they saw from camakers in that regard. He was a high school quarterback. Greg cosell on the Ross Tucker football podcast said he really saw acres understanding of fronts and how it contributed to his vision as a runner. And You wonder if that dates back to his experience as a high school quarterback reading defense is so I think the rams liked can make her cerebral style of play especially if that was an area. Daryl Henderson struggle and by the way up Florida state had a horrible offensive line. They haven't had a good offensive line in years. And the rams had a horrible offensive line last year thirty first per pro football focus so I think the the rams really liked camakers the waking ran behind that bad Florida state offensive line. They think that can translate to the La Rams so it's a nasty backfield for fantasy purposes. Because I mean frankly we still don't know anything about Daryl Anderson. He barely played last year. Do they still have him in their plants? Malcolm Brown is still there. They kind of like him. These coaches favourite but acres trades including his receiving ability. Kind of making my favorite back. Here I think he's kind of a sixth seventh round. Pick in redraft. But there's league-winning upside there. It's just the fact that you're going to have to navigate a really swampy backfield at least in the early part of the season. If you want to invest investing camakers next up still on the second round we've got JK Dobbins to the Baltimore Ravens and other one. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on it like I mean talk about just the most pristine landing spot you can possibly get on. There was some thought. Miami was enamored with Auburn's and apparently that might have been a smokescreen because Miami. Pass on a couple of times but there are some thoughts Leading up to the draft. That Miami was considering drafting Dobbins in the first round with one of its three first round picks. Probably the final of those three didn't happen and a Baltimore decided. We have got to pull the trigger on this player. Because he's a great football player. He's a one cut downhill runner. He's a great fit for this raven offense that that's based on. That's based on the run game around. Lamar Jackson in the Mar Jackson's twenty. Two career starts all running backs. That's any running back. Average is five point zero nine yards per. Carry all of them. That's ridiculous for context of running backs with one hundred or fifty or more carries last season. Devon Single Terry led all qualifiers with five point. One three yards per carry so basically running behind. Lamar Jackson is is a is a guarantee that you're going to be in the mix for the yards per carry title so this is a great fit for J. Dobbins. The bad news for fantasy is mark. Ingram who's really effective last year? They still have Gus Edwards. They still have Justice Hill here. So this is a guy who I look at it and think all right I view Dobbins with this landing situation as an absolute perfect landing spot but the question becomes for fantasy this season alone. Is he going to be kind of useless? In the first half of the season and then really useful in the second half of the year. Is he going to be useless for fantasy all year long? Is he going to be very useful? Is he going to be so good early on that? They're going to benchmark Ingraham Forum. I don't know if any of those things are true but the one thing that I look at here and by the way I think you can make the argument Dobbins or Jonathan. Taylor should be the second pick and rookie apps just because of his long term outlook but for fantasy this year. I wonder if Dobbins is going to be more like Nick Chub two years ago and Mile Sanders last season where they really weren't very useful for fantasy purposes but then ended up becoming league winners down the stretch especially miles sanders. Ross you remember how well he produced down the stretch this year. I wonder if Dobbins is going to have to be a player like that that you have to sit on and wait for him to marinate so he can so he becomes The the Ravens Starter. But if he sees the field in in a capacity where he's getting fifteen carries a game at some point. The guy's going to be a top twelve running back. It's just a question of if and when that opportunity comes here last one the second round Joe is Aj Dylan. Who the packers. Surprisingly took a Boston College at the end around to well the Jordan love pick. You know that piss packers fans off but Aaron Rodgers is play slipping Dylan might be the pick. That really got him going. Because packer fans are looking at their team. They're like we need weapons around Aaron Rodgers. We we need to help them out if this is his last year or two in Green Bay. We need to help them out. And then if you look at the packers roster you can make the argument. The strongest position on team last year was the running back position. Aaron Jones scored nineteen touchdowns at led the NFL. Jamal Williams is a solid number two back and the packers fans are sitting here thinking this historic wide receiver draft. We still have good players on the board at this point. You know. We Still Brian Edwards on the Board Antonio Gandhi Goldens on the board deadened duvaliers on the board. And we're drafting running back in the second round this one really got packer fans going. But I if I'm trying to rationalize the pick if I'm trying to get into the mindset of Matt floor and Brian Guten cuts the general manager there. I think the floor saw Derrick Henry. Aj Dylan I at least on some level you know six foot two hundred and forty seven pounds not many running backs or built like that. Not Many linebackers. These days are built like that. He ran a four five three forty at the combine and jumped out of the building. So you see a lot of explosiveness in AJ Dylan at least in terms of his measurable 's and I think Matt before remember. He was in Tennessee. He was the play caller in Tennessee when Tennessee during the twenty eighteen. Nfl season decided to switch from a dual backfield approach with Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry. In the first half of the season to essentially benching Dion Lewis and leading Derrick Henry. Just basically run the offense. He was the foundation of the offense and the Tennessee. Titans taken off since that point riding that all the way to the AFC championship game in Twenty nineteen. The I mean. You look at Oxfam's razor in these situations. Aj Dylan reminded reminded Matt Leflore Derrick Henry. I don't think he's as explosives Derrick Henry. I don't think he's as good of a prospect is derrick. Henry was coming out but this is pure philosophy. Change pick the packers stink. They want to run the football and they WANNA run it. Well they want to run it consistently now. The question becomes. How many snaps does Dylan plays rookie. I don't think Jones coming off. The Field Guy. Guy Had nineteen touchdowns last year so does. Aj Dylan's supersede. Jamal Williams is he. Somebody who's just going to sit and learn and rest while Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams who are on the final years of their contracts run this backfield. I am really struggling to find the snaps. That are going to make dillon particularly fantasy relevant. And if he's a rotational back. I actually think that's a misuse of him in the same way it was a misuse of Derrick. Henry so if. Aj Dylan's getting nine to ten carries per game. He's just not going to produce for fantasy this year. I think he needs to be the hammer. Rb One and I don't see those snaps for him. This year the question becomes too the packers both Jones and Williams walk after the season and then. Aj Dylan's the foundation back. I think there's too many questions right now to really get a great projection of AJ Dylan as we head into the twenty twenty. Th the third round picks Joe Keyshawn Vaughn to the bucks. Zac Moss. To the bills and Barrington Evans to the titans. Which of those are relevant to you or do you think all three merit a discussion while the off three merit at least some comment keyshawn bonds the most relevant of the He he's a third round. Pick seventy six overall. We thought the bucks could be a team that would dabble in the second round at the running back position. I think the only thing that kind of surprise me a little bit was bruce. Arians came out this off season and mentioned that he really thought the bucks need to get a pass catching running back. So you're thinking Oh Mandy Andrea Swift Clyde Edwards Allaire camakers. These guys would be great fits there. I don't think anybody really thought of keyshawn. Vaughn a great receiving running back coming out. I think it's an underrated aspect of his game. I think he can run screens. They think by the way they find out admitted that they thought he was an underrated receiver. But it wasn't really the big part of his game at Vanderbilt If you look at Vaughn on the surface he actually was kind of a similar prospect to Ronald Jones a better prospect than Jones. I did not like Jones coming out of us on. I thought he was a better prospect but similar kind of that straight line. One cut down hill type of guy so I is. He obviously above Ronald Jones on the depth chart. I guess he can't say that for sure. How goodwill the bucks defense is going to be able to get fifteen carries per game and the other thing that you need to point out. Is They talked about the fact that they needed a receiving back while they drafted more of a Jitterbug type of back? Raymond Coleus in the seventh round out of Louisiana. Lafayette I believe so. Where does he fit into the equation? Hopefully we're going to have some sort of an off season program to watch this but Keyshawn von Right now is typically typically going off the board as the third or fourth running back in in Redraft Leagues Certainly Behind Edwards Alaron Jonathan Taylor. And he's kind of in the mix there with Jay Dobbins. I A lot of people think Vaughn has easier path relevance. Jk Dobbins says. At least right away I think this could be a league winning back but I also view keyshawn at somebody who gets one hundred ten carries and at the end of the year. We're like man. I can't believe he was going in the sixth round. So I'm in on keyshawn volume. I think he's the most relevant of the three third round picks but there are still some questions for Keyshawn von so. Hopefully we get some sort of off season program to answer those questions for Zach Moss. I think there's a. There's a clear path to one hundred and fifty carries at for him as a rookie. He's going to play. The Frank Worrell Brandon beane went on Sirius. Xm NFL radio and said Yeah We. We think he's going to be frank or in this offense while Frank. One hundred seventy nine touches last year. The problem for exact. Moss's as it as it is a problem for Devon Single Terry. They're going to feed eat off each other's touches and then Josh Allen has seventeen rushing touchdowns the last two seasons. So there's not a lot of touchdown upside Zach Mossy or so. He's more of a tenth eleventh round type of pick in a second round. Rookie Dynasty. Pick and then Barrington Evans. Ross you mentioned him up. Tennessee took them ninety third overall in the third round. Fascinating utterly fascinating. I plugged at the top of the of the show. Greg Cosell's draft guide of fantasy points DOT com. While he watched Evans coming out of Appalachian State he watched him early in the process. Before the drafting said Darren Evans fits the profile of a running back. Who's going to be best in an outside wide zone? Run game a Ross. Do you know who runs outside zone. Better than any team in professional football. Titans Tennessee Titans. It's the foundation of their run game. So Evans is not Derrick. Henry Okay. Few people are six. Three two hundred fifty pound running backs do not grow on trees. As a matter of fact they are the tree. I mean they're not built like that Darren Evans is like five to ten somewhere around there. But he's an outside zone running back. He's a good receiver. Who can probably give Henry a breather here and there? And if Henry were to go down Danton Evans. Frankly for fantasy is instantly instantly one of the top three or four handcuffs in all a fantasy football because of the way he fits into this scheme. So this is we. We typically don't see teams invest third round picks to protect an investment in the run game. Typically a third round pick at the running back position is premium pick review. These picks as as players. You should come in and start. Now maybe view that as Evans game down the road. Because Derrick Henry is only playing on the franchise tag this year there. There's thoughts there's Thurs assumptions that they want to work out a long term deal. But that might not happen. You know you guys get hurt. The running back position. So maybe Darren Evans has a roll down the line but for right now. This is the Tennessee. Titans saying the foundation of our entire offense is the outside zone run game. If Derrick Henry gets hurt we are screwed so if Derrick Henry has to miss a couple of games remember. He was dinged up at the end of last season it. Yes the couple of Games Darren Evans is going to keep them on schedule. And if Derrick Henry is out for. Let's say three weeks. Darren Evans is going to be projected as a top twelve running back for however long. Derrick Henry is out because of the nature of the titans offense. They are still going to run the ball if Derrick Henry is hurt or not that's why Darren Evansville is an important pick for them for immediate fantasy value. Though it's just not gonNA happen. He Needs Derrick Henry to be be hurt for that Joe. I'm going to give you some names. You get to talk about one of these guys so you have to choose wisely. Joshua Kelly with the chargers La- Michael P with the Jet Anthony McFarland with the steelers. Dj Dallas in Seattle Jason Huntley with the Lions. That's it you you get to talk about one of those guys. It's your choice ladies choice. Okay so I am going to. I'm going to. I'm going to talk about the guy. I have ranked highest for dynasty. Even though I have thoughts on all of those guys the guy ranked highest dynasties Anthony McFarland and it's fascinating because you can read into this pick from from different perspectives. If you believe in James Connor all McFarland is a fourth round. Pick as a change of pace type player and it's a good sign. The steelers didn't invest in earlier. Pick in running back. They J Dobbins was on the board in the second round when they took chase poll. So you can say hey look. They didn't take Dobbins even though the fans might WanNa Dobbins or camakers there they even James Connor however if you think the steelers don't trust James Connor you can view McFarland skill set as very intriguing. And and you can see. He say he profiles a someone who compare nicely with Benny Snell in thunder and lightning backfield. The truth is probably somewhere in between but Anthony McFarland that. This guy came out After his freshman season his redshirt freshman season in two thousand eighteen. If he could have come out maybe he gets drafted higher than this. A spectacular first year at Maryland He ran for two hundred ninety eight yards on twenty one carries against Ohio state that year. But it's twenty nine hundred thousand tape reports where he played through a high ankle sprain. So things weren't as impressive. He's undersized but he's a really hard charging kind of downhill aggressive runner. He reminded me in that mold of Philip Lindsey or Matt Brita type of runner and I think that pairs well with with a grinder. Whether that's connor or Benny Snow. In Pittsburgh. He only caught twenty four passes in college. But I think that's an that was an underutilized of his game. I think he's straight line speed could make him very effective on screen routes and we'll routes. I think that should become a bigger part of his game terms of redraft leagues. I think he's worth a shot around the tenth around because I do think there's a chance he leads. This Pittsburgh offense in production out of the Backfield I really do. And but if James Connor stays healthy there's a chance McFarland barely played so. That's where where you take in that tenth eleventh round. I think he's a second round rookie dynasty pick but if Ben Rothlisberger is healthy that is a huge shift but if Ben Rothlisberger is healthy this is going to be a good offense. An hour invest in aback. Who's got a chance in a really good often. Such good stuff. I mean Joe is like Evan was. He's like an encyclopedia with these guys. It is unbelievably impressive to hear him. Talk about each and every one of these guys and get you guys. Ready for your fantasy drafts including maybe against us in the best ball draft. You just gotTa make sure you sign up fantasy points dot com put in the code feast or really you can sign up for any of our sponsors to if you want to double dip and tended to me. The sponsors are on the sponsor page at Ross Tucker dot com such as bet online. We used the online odds yesterday. Did Steve and I on the even money podcast and we made our preliminary week one bets which I think you guys will really really enjoy. That is better online dot. Ag Promo Code is podcast one and you will be able to go ahead and listen to our week. One Bets and make them. If you'd like on the even money. Podcast listened to that. Then go to bed online. They are your online sportsbook experts. Tomorrow we will have the Goat Greg. Cosell on the Ross. Tucker football podcast little coast cells concepts how do you defend the RPO among other things? I'm going to dive into with Gregg tomorrow. Really looking forward to it other than that. I'm totally totally stuffed. We're done thanks for listening to the fantasy. Feast podcast. Make sure to also subscribe to the Ross Tucker. Football podcast even money business of sports and college draft all available at Apple podcasts. Rest TUCKER DOT COM or wherever podcasts can be found.