The Odds Report with Brent from DSI Sportsbook Super Bowl LIV January 24, 2020
We got one more guest one more segment here four this week on the show that is this version of the odds report with Brent from Diaz. Sportsbook we talked super bowl fifty four before we talk some stuff on the. You Have C.. Here for this weekend not a whole lot in the pro markets as of yet still working through getting a lot of that stuff up and of course sharp. It better going to start picking away at some of those props throughout next week so a shorter segment on the odds report here this week with Brentwood still some very good information with thoughts. What's on the Super Bowl in this weekend's see event so here is this week's version of the odds report with Brett from the SL sports? I'm joined by Brent. The head risk manager down at the sports book for this version of the odds report breath. How's it going today? Man Doing wonderfully well. I mean this is the the you know the culmination of the whole football season here and like it's it's a great match up to that we're looking at as well so I mean it's kind of like the the right teams if you want you know quote unquote say that are are in their in some way that is exciting that respect and we had the debut is I n Williams last night and we're getting close to Lake All star Games in hockey and NBA and stuff stuff like that which means baseball pitchers catchers should be reporting a few weeks so good. I mean it's beautiful things about this industry just like really it. It just doesn't stop. I mean you can say yeah you know say baseball. WNBA sleaze whatever is like a slow season but that doesn't last a whole lot long especially when you factor in how late the the NF NHL Osco. So it's oppy content guy here well and just to clarify when you talk about the big game in the right teams you're talking about the NFC versus the AFC and the pro bowl on Sunday right. Yeah they still play that they do. Yeah it's not even in Hawaii Wii anymore though Orlando I think right. Yeah and I don't know that it's just it's just a bad idea like the same with the NBA UC just the human the All Star game. Just the way they play is like it's not even it's not even like a game of pickup. It just like you guys take the ball and see what kind of dunks you can do or shooter the two threes from half court or whatever it is the NFL just the style of play. It's just not set up. Well two guys being aggressive hitting which is the whole concept of defense. Yeah we'll see if there's any defense played in the pro bowl but there should be some defense played here in the Super Bowl. Although the early bet counts on the total would suggest that maybe defense could be optional here in this one but it is the forty niners and the chiefs out there as you know if you don't know that. Am and listening to the show and be must must be listening to anything but small favorite out there a lot of over money here so far. What's going on in house at? GSI On the big game. Yeah Count Wise is. It's it's pretty. It's to wait one side to the total as you know you touched on there just seems to be just been impounded. I thought it was just when I kind of get a feel for where where things are going to go. I thought after the open fifty one and a half fifty two. I thought it was going to settle around fifty four. Maybe sit there for a couple of days and then come back come back down. I think maybe we'll see it. Come down next week. You got a ton of time for this game. Of course still so I just I just see this number. Probably getting hit and coming back down at some point in time. I don't have sharp money on you know on the toilet. All I waited count towards the over seven to one so it's just a a massive count towards towards the over but from what I see so far. It's just like you know just public. Is Betting night it just non stop. Of course no matter what we put up. So I'm highest fifty four and a half which is the highest number on the board and that's Kinda we're going until someone suggested the wise. There's a dramatic move back the other way Spread it's a spread of money line because this number is so short at either one and a half with Kansas City or minus one minus fifteen out. There on we're talking money light up minus one twenty five so to come back there as possible. No five so as you would expect just kind of like the the rationale of a lot of people's while phone and just go you know why. Take the one minus. Oh five or you may as well take the plus five so. I'm getting that a lot. My my waiter count on the money line is very specific about two point. Two five times favored of San Francisco. So I'm getting more money on the money line. I did take sharp action action non-candidacy beyond the spread now. I didn't Oakland pick. We opened up minus one an Raghav bet on Kansas City. So the hit there were initially again. This number came mm up while the while the game on last week and was still going on so it's been up for quite a long time again. I didn't I didn't open at the pick. I opened a minus one. That's got sharp money on Kansas City now. The spread count itself is about two point seven five times candidacy so not quite three to one favorite Kansas City so I got two and a quarter. Basically money align favoring the niners and two and three quarters the other way was Kansas City on the spread. So if I if I add it all together. I'm still off on Kansas City in terms of overall money money but still not that bad honestly I I'll admit in this case I just don't really have a few for the side other than I think. It's probably beginning bounce around where it is. I could seek going to. I mean if you look at the look ahead light I believe it was two and a half or or or or Tunein. I think it's probably going to get to there. I just this. I can't see going back to a pick because just my rationale there is that you pick was already on the board when it opened up and you know there wasn't a rush of San Francisco money there so i. I don't think it's going to go back down a picks but the way the money's going on the money line and the way it is on the on the spread is just not overwhelming. I just don't see hitting three either even like three dog twenty or whatever I I just don't see that so I think you know we're going to be in a comfortable spot. You're not really risking any key numbers here. I think is probably going to stay between one. And and maybe too and we'll probably end up with a similar chart as we have right now. The only thing I think like you say I I just I think at some point next week. Maybe we'll get so money coming in on the under the haven't seen it yet so from a risk management standpoint. You know when we talk about the Super Bowl. It's usually the dog on the money. Line and the favorite mytalk lightest points and a lot of people kinda just liked to adopt that strategy here with this game but as you mentioned with this one basically one one and a half not really a whole lot out of wiggle room for movement. It's not gonNA hit three. It may get the San Francisco minus one if that ends up being the sharp side but not a lot of movement here on the side so from a risk management standpoint. I mean does that free you guys up to focus more on other things. How do you sort of balance that out? Well I just you get. It feels sometimes the numbers right and I think this one is very strong again. The early indication from the mets got show that actually I think the the number could take up. It might go to you know to I two and a half maybe I. I don't know 'cause I think you might see some guys buying at that point. They said I don't think it's going to drop down a pick. I don't think it's GonNa flip worse. Our Cisco's the favorite either so. I think this numbers can be good for us. The only thing I I think that could volatility wheat would be the toll on my my my feelings at that would come down but who knows now does would money line exposure caused you to move the spread at all or would you just move the money line price down. I mean you can do that sometimes. Yeah the right now. The way things are balanced off the spread and the money line being this lowest plus five and the minus one and a half it just. It's not not really significant for us to make move if I was one sided toward San Francisco on the money line but right now you know. It's a good spot. I if you took a boat talk about sorry last week when you're getting and you know bigger payoffs like plus two fifty on the dogs and the minus seven and a half dot fifteen. What it was on those games? You might look at those in terms of exposure and stuff like that but those games while they they just worked out for us in terms of the management. Now of course going back to two that week things weren't great frost and the fact that both favorites covered him in both games. Went over when you look at the teasers and self at that so that wasn't a great result for us but I think this number's going to work for us where we are now. I don't know if you know this and I apologize if I'm blindsiding you with it because you know I didn't ask you this before the show. But in terms of super bowl futures exposure I mean given the San Francisco defense given how you know they had that real. Oh Nice Cameo with Jimmy G. A couple of years ago and then given Kansas City and the offense I think that these two teams are real great in terms of the futures exposure. You may have had not yet. No actually we're good spot. I think she when the playoffs started. We basically had a you know one Risk position to the eagles and that was really the only team that we lost to. I think Seattle was not great for us but I think the Eagles and Seattle were the only ones who were at risk too. So we'RE GONNA WE'RE GONNA do well to both these teams as you segue in for me. I did personally Bet San Francisco at thirty five to one before the season started. So I'm glad you brought that up. What's your play are there? What's your plan? Have you decided. Well I mean we talked to the market and stuff like that and kind of the feeling as to where things might go. I might be a good time to just just look at how things might go into the game or you get into terms of the analyzing the stats and stuff like that and the matchups in Dauphin. You know it's interesting because San Francisco is different front. Seven is by by far the fastest in there in the league. I mean they they go up and down the linebackers go side to side real well and you know you know in terms of Mahomes were struggles and stuff like that Arias. More when he's forced to sit in the pocket on you saw last week as well what happens to him when he gets out of the pocket. I mean He. He succeeds quite well their homes as well. He does very well versus zone. Defenses in San Fran plays they play more of a tight zone coverage I guess you could say okay so but we're Kansas City. How successes with the tight ends and receivers who can sit into those pockets and stuff like that so? I think it's really interesting in terms so how well the defense contains mahomes. Obviously that's key but you know San Fran. They've been a little bit more vulnerable to Russia's well and the thing that kind of has me the spread of minus one or whatever the Kennedy being a slight favorite really doesn't concern me much but if I did kind of like look into things myself I'd just can't get past you know how sound Cisco yes they got this great defense has got that reputations really been built up but on the field shore but in medias wall but I mean they was against New Orleans I guess it was a forty eight forty six game. They lost at home to Atlanta. Twenty nine twenty. Two in the Falcons they were Kinda Anna second half season yeah they got lice. Important played better but The Rams as well I think that was like a thirty four thirty one and compare those teams to to the chiefs and Mahomes and I just you know I think San Francisco Yeah. Their defense is really really good. But I think cassidy's is likely to expose him to some degree flip side of that as well as like you know who do you trust. More Jimmy G. or mahomes hiking. Oh Yeah I love my price. I said thirty five to one but I think you know just for me. I just have to hedge back. I just I just really can't rest that on Jimmy G. and and again I'm not even looking back into the last week and stuff like that you know his stats was six out of eight for less than eighty yards or whatever but he didn't have to do anymore I mean San and I just kind of rolled with with what remained Gabe in Green Bay. Play the horrible run defense. I mean why bother chuck hundred out there. They just didn't have to so I I kind of I don't really read much into that but San Francisco does run the ball more than anyone else in the league but they do have good matchup issues too with Deebo Samuel on the outside you got kittles. Well doing his stuff so I I see a lot of ways for both these teams to you know to win the game. I I wish I could say I just love San Francisco in this game. I'm going to ride it out but it's interesting because it's been so dominant with the run and Ken Cities Been So donald the pass I think the key to this game really is going to be San Francisco who can have success passing the ball and can the city can run the ball well and that's the funny thing too. You know. I know that you guys over there are working on your prop catalog. You're still trying to put what a lot of that stuff up there so we don't have anything really to talk about on the prop side. We'll do a lot of that on next week segment but I do think that prop creation is a big challenge and also also playing a lot of these because again two contrasting styles teams San Francisco runs at Kansas City. Throws it if San Francisco Plays Ball Control and Mahomes. uh-huh doesn't get a lot of volume. Well let's get hurt. All the skill position over that people want to bet on the flip side if San Francisco has no help or has no success. Passing thing can't get a lot of those third medium third and longs and Kansas City. Has the ball a lot all those are going to come in so the prop betting the procreation creationist so tough for this game. Because he's teams are so wildly different. Yeah I think what when people when you do your own handicap and I definitely encouraged that you you've got to look at the statistics and you gotta look matchups in well and I think when it comes to the stats as well. You have to look at strength schedule and stuff like that and you look at Kansas missile. Defense it has been well-documented how they're quote unquote improve but if you look at the strength of schedule versus the pass offenses that they when they had some really really tough team that went against. I think they played like the top five on top five in terms of the offense the defense when against so. That's really be skewed. We talked about it at at bowl season as well. You know when you got conference teams playing against each other you know all the stats are based on conference. Play a ninety going auto conference in these Games. You really have to throw a law that stuff away this is game obviously the NFL. You you don't really have to throw stuff away and it really comes comes down to these two teams. Who Do those two different things? Really well in terms of San Francisco passing a sort of San Francisco running and Kansas City passing. I think it's like I said I think it's the opposite is what's is going to be key these games now. I just I again. I keep going back to this whole Jimmy versus home things. We know they're not you know. I hate when people say that. Oh you know Jimmy. G. is whatever whatever record against Pat Mahomes. Well he does not pay play Games mahomes. He plays against Kansas. City's defense The other thing too and probably much can be made of it next week or already has a boat and you read and how well he does off the bye. I think one of the things that's lost with him is. He's really strong defensively. There's a strong defensive correlation between reads team and coming off off the bye. So that's another chip sort of in their favor as well again. You know like read the concern that I if you look at the past two weeks weeks offensively. They just started really slow. They came up behind the ball. They're losing both games and read. He does his stuff from the sidelines. He's okay tweak this to the offense boom on the offense is ticking okay the offense is going and Lsu we can do on defense and woman having both those games The the the defense started started poorly. The offense started poorly. If the offense I fix the defense necks and here they are in the Super Bowl right. Well we get some extra time here on this segment because we don't really have a ton to talk about beyond what we've already discussed here for the Super Bowl so with a little bit of extra time we do have a you have see this weekend. Not nearly as much fanfare as last week. SARONIC McGregor speaking of that. How did that fight wind up going free last week? It did go well for us. I mean unfortunately maybe I you know too many of your listeners picked up suggesting that the the sharper played was McGregor by knockout. TKO That taught obviously well for that. That's kind of where the value was but still still had a lot of money on just I again. I touched on before it was almost like the you know the reputation that McGregor has kind of makes people want to see him lose they WANNA bet against when they want to say. Hey I'm the guy who bet against him. Winsor only knocked motor. What have you so we had a lot of a lot of bets? Required exposed to ceremony was the you know is a a big decision for us. A five figure decision. We obviously got out well without one. McGregor was just kind of funny at the end like it was like he was running for politics or shaken hands ends kissing babies and stuff like that or maybe you know kissing opponents and shaking grammas and holding hugging grandma's and stuff like that it was. It was quite interesting to see him out. There though is like a different Conor McGregor. Maybe you know. Maybe he's going to be more personal art shows. We take a look at this weekend's car down in Raleigh North Carolina you have see on ESPN plus plus twenty four UFC. Fight night one sixty six. There's like eighteen different names for all these events here in the UFC. But what are what are some of the sharp plays is that we're looking at here for this weekend that you've seen some sharp action there at. GSI Yeah on the undercard a couple of fights. Serra McMahon is one right to get sharp box in there on that came in at minus one forty there and I think she's just kind of being being undervalues off a couple of losses stuff like that but she's just she's just to goodness prices. Seems you know what one forty was. A was a sharp lane. I kind of see the logic behind that one I also have a burns burns on land. where now burns? He's he's was a small favourite and he slipped to a small dog right now. Even money's where he got played by sharp money and these guys are newcomers on with UFC. But if you look at burn what he's done it just seems like he's he's got. He's a better submission threat and he's face better opposition. You can see stuff going that way. In terms of his his favor the Townsend Lewis fight over one and a half that Kim minus one fifty five the over minus one ninety whole markets. Move that one as as well. Lewis is kind of in spots. Where he's he's gotTa Win you know? He's good striking good in the clinches. Well and and Townsend. He's a good solid opponent. He does you know he's he's a good striker from rains and stuff like that. Okay when you can set the pace but you know. He's just not a hard enough hitter as well to not. You know to to send this out early so I kind of agree with the over one and a half says is while the to the you know. The main event in Col- main event I guess you will with San Hose and they'll sandals and blades. I do have sharp money on the over there with the main event and blade so that one I kind of got pseudo sharp money on India GSA fight over as well new blades. Very interesting you look at his record. He's he's the guy who wasn't division he'd be. You could argue. He's probably Bobby. Blades is probably the heavyweight champion winning while just kinda matter of time before he gets there he still by UFC terms. He's still a young twenty eight on they'll Santos now is he's. He's long in the tooth. Yeah but he's a solid better. He's around thirty five years old. He's you know quality gatekeeper. If if you will I think with him as he just it takes you know aggression and kind of power to back him up and and blades. The ice is going to be effective. I think but it's just you know style fights. I think this one favors blades lades now. He's a big favorite. I think he opened to forty five to fifty to fifty five. So horse and a dramatic move but I think the style wise suits plays well. I think he's probably just going back though Santos up into the fence and get some take down and control and stuff like that so I kind of see the logic behind the over in this one and getting plus one fifty obviously saw money to go with it Brent. The head risk manager down at the sports book with us for this week's version of the odds report Brent always a pleasure man good to chat a couple of different sports betting markets with the here over the last two weeks and look forward to our Super Bowl Extravaganza. Next week. We're showing our versatility definitely are thanks a lot man. We'll talk to you next week. Thanks again for me on atom.