Out of the Gate - Episode 137 - La Canada Stakes Edition
Yeah I welcome to out of the gate. Daily racing forms weekend handicapping preview program. I'm your host stand elman. Thanks thanks so much for watching. Here's what's coming up this week's edition of out of the gate. Daily racing form handicappers Mike Bureaucratic cow. Ski and. I will take a look at three major graded stakes races from across the country. The Lock Canada is your diaw Saturday race of the day. It is at Santa Anita to graded stakes races on turf at Gulfstream. The Marshall Is River and tropical turf. If you'll have Nicole Russo's repick segment David Arizona's time for US spotlight plus best bet sources to watch and lots lots more. So let's break out of the gate eight. We begin out of the gate with our horse. Watch segment criminal. Kaczynski's been following this source for a while. Let's see who it is. My a Horse Watch for this week is going to be sold Allante. He's a three year old gelding run three times now. He just ran this past Saturday in the Muccio Macho man stakes as ten ten free at Gulfstream Park. He ran a good third in that race and what was not only is I try on dirt. It was also him cutting back to one turn for the first time time he had begun his career with a nice maiden win at Gulfstream Park West coming from well back in the pack it just seven and a half furlongs to get up and win easily with take time for speed figure of ninety. The next time out he went right back to the turf he moved into a minor stakes race. Gulfstream Park this time at one mile. which was it's too turns? And once again he was well back early made that Nice move now both times. He got hot pieces to run into but he looked really professional winning he was able to weave his way through traffic. So the move to dirt in the Muto Macho Man. We had a lot of question marks for him but I thought he handled it well. I was a race where he didn't didn't get a whole lot of peace. There were no red fractions and time form. US And he wasn't able to real in the top two but I still like the way made a nice move around on that turn. The piece was really pretty moderate that day so he didn't you know it just wasn't a great setup for him. I think he's going to do much better next time out. He's a horse with a promising nothing future and he showed it he can run on both dirt turf and dirt so once again. We're swatch is going to be so volante. Go to Ecuador my horse. Watch dan the final final day of two thousand nine hundred and a colt named Porto's trained by Todd pletcher. Let's throw up the replay right now. This is his fourth career. Start every one of his races so far around to turns this worst wants distance. He's improved from race to race. And here's the maiden when finally starting off I know it's a wet track and there's probably not that much behind him in here but he's just GonNa win off from this. Westfield with a very solid eighty four buyer. He's got a nice pedigrees tap it his dam was a stakes winner. She's a sister to grade one winner. Powerbroker this war seems like he wants to go all day long long. I suspect he's on the Derby trial for pleasure now. That's the way we like to see lecture. Two Year olds when racist. kind of takes us back to the day very impressive performance by porthos. My worst to watch laurel is a horse named rookie. Salsa he was a stakes winner earlier this year or early in nineteen at Churchill downs dropping into a twenty five thousand dollars claimer last time trying to get some confidence for trainer. Jury O'Dwyer take into the inside on the backstretch into the turn that we turn into the stretch and this one's just got got nowhere to go. He's in behind horses. The three horses in front of them are just tiring. The horse in the lead is going going gone. He still hasn't gotten out to the clear and now rookie. Salsa is is in Likud. He's GonNa come with a good run and he'll finish third. He was claimed out of this race by Claudio. Gonzalez was currently on a ten for sixteen tear at Laurel with with newly claimed runners. Rookie sausages seems like the kind of horse. That's going to fit back in a twenty five thousand dollar claiming level. And if he wins he can go on a roll and start optional. Optional claiming race. This keep an eye out for rookie salsa at Laurel. He's a newly turned three-year-old. Let's get to some handicapping the lot Yata stakes is your Saturday race of the day. Let's look the field for Saturday's D. R. F. Race of the day the grade three two hundred thousand dollar lock on on Yonder stakes phillies and mayor's going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track at Santa Anita. You can download free formulator past performances for this race on the race of the day event. PAGE DOT COM expanded stakes previews diaw spread free. Covers the lockdown Yada in great detail at video dot dot com or or the daily racing form Youtube Channel Seven Spice Perfection looks like the Horse to beat the sources shown a lot of ability in top class races. Good enough to stretch out a a bit. Though in that makes Hausky a little dubious about backing the favourite. He has an alternative. Can Yada stakes is an interesting race for older fillies and the mayor's trying to go on a mile and a sixteenth at CNN. Need on Saturday and the first place. I looked at time formula piece projector and it does show that a favors tauruses owner near the early lead. But it's pretty interesting race. I think in it also shows a three horses Bunched up right on the front and this kind of indicates to me. It's really a fuzzy situation. The horses in there having shown a whole lot of speed one of them who's actually shown on our preview pages on eater message. Looks like she's probably in a bid overhead and it's not like she's going to get a clear easy lead see you know based on the others in here. They they've shown similarly speed Spice Vice Perfection. Who I would assume is going to be the morning line favorite? When that comes out is a horse who just wanted Akwa doctor in a stakes race but she did so just setting a glacial glacial pace on ramp Sunday? I mean it was so slow that the race had to be broken out by myself as a speed figure maker also on the buyer numbers so it was really a tricky array. So basically what I'm saying is I don't love any of the horses who are projected to be up owner. Nia that early lead in this race I think they all have some questions queen. NBD You who we show is a tracker. She's another one that show up there. She's not even really a front runner rarely lately. Has she been anywhere near the front. Just done her best racing from off the the pay she wanted to last time out pretty easily at low sow but because of that. I'm going ahead in a different direction. And I'm going to go with the number one. derr Lou Bob Baffert trained filly. She just four years old. And there's a few things I like about her. I liked catchy. One earliest recess. She did it with just one. Oh four time formula speed figure But I think she's got more in tank she's obviously younger. She is going to need to improve on that number. Some of the others in the run faster but I was a little concerned when I I looked at the race about the layoff that she's had she's been off since that win. But when I checked a workout tab. She's been working steadily ever since so. Obviously Bob Bob Baffert just didn't find the right spot for maybe was pointing the spot along. But there haven't been any issues with this horse He's Red Hot Baffert is is that Santa Anita. I think he won a couple of big steak Sarah last weekend so for me. I'm looking for an improve race from blue. Maybe a little bit of an aggressive ride from net inside post is position in a race without much speed and I think she is going to run really well in here. I'm with crew trying to spice perspective. Here she tries to stretch out at a short prize. Is I'm GonNa take the six harassed and this. This is affiliate who improved immediately. When they decided to structure out and distance? Last year's three year old she won four races in a row as as soon as they got out of sprint races with her including this race here and the grade three monmouth Oaks at monmouth. Park up the inside in this race and out finish Jaywalk at the end of the day here with a ninety four Beyer speed figure. This is a very good performances. She came out of this race to I think finish a pretty good third in the grade one Castilian and then under first star for Richard Voltage. They tried to sprint her again. I don't really think she wants to go short distances. I think she wants to go longer distances. And I like the ball gets her back to southern California here and structures. These are back out now. She's an excellent fit in this spot and he's hard trier to be sure. I wonder if I'm getting suckered into the three queen. Bee to US seeking her third consecutive victory. Therese you one last time out at Los Alamos arguably her favorite tracks. She won the Grade Three by at Coa she was wide. And that's where you want to be most of the time at Los Alameda. She's swept by this field to win and very comfortable fashion with an eighty six. Beyer speed figure. She has shown the ability to stay closer to the pace in the past. I like the fact that she has tactical speed that she is adaptable that she is comfortable. At this distance. She is going to have to take another step forward if she's going to beat the likes of Spice Perfection at Harare but I think Queen. BDU with three to one or seven to two in the form. She's in right now at least deserves an opportunity to take them down. In the lock on Yada stakes Nicole Russo always has great pedigree incites. Let's go to her pedigree pick segment right now. Hi Everyone Nicole Russo coming to you for out of the gate. Saturday's Gulfstream Park Card futures four strong maiden special weights for three-year-olds olds is zeroed in on this third race. We're going a mile which is a tall order for a first time starter but there are a couple in here with Stamina Stamina Laden pedigrees to make it work. Starting with eminent domain. He shows a solid series of four and five Furlong Works for Bill Ma and probably has stamina foundation in him for his debut. Of course he caught my eye is he's by triple crown winner Americans thorough. Last year's. Here's leading freshman sire. He had a good deal of steak. Success on turf but certainly has the ability to sire a dirt runner the surface on which he needed all of his best work. I think especially those progeny will be going around two turns as he starts to get more opportunities in that arena. Now I'm gonNA added domain who you'll watch breezing at the O.. B. S. April sale where he fetched a half million dollars is out of a dirt router in dundalk dust to one the great to in falls city. Her first two runners are both route winners with Kangaroo Valley winning a mile and a half and a winner of Flynn three eight now another first time starter. Who caught my eye on this raid awesome By curling out of a medallion Doro To Classic Classic Upfront at his definite dirt route ability however both sired graded performers route on turf and a lot of turf. Her route ability in the female lane misses the extended winner of the extended family. I'm sorry arc winner and Brilliant Bruton urban see we who produced Galileo see the stars and more as what was European classic winner King's best. I think awesome party definitely wants to go out out and could do so an either or turf so look for him to turn in a nice run potentially on Saturday but also keep this horse's name in mind down the road as yes I think he has some Some potential there. Meanwhile we'll be looking a high stakes action on this Saturday Gulfstream card after this break out of the gate. Eight stole from racing blew a breakthrough in sports nutrition for horses. Welcome back to out of the gate. Let's throw up the field for the CO feature at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. It's the grade. Three one hundred fifty thousand dollar Marsha as river stakes mile and a sixteenth on the turf for fillies and mayors for expanded stakes previews of this in many of the other major stakes races all weekend long plus lots lots more head on over to video dot dot com or the daily racing form Youtube Channel. Oh third choice on the morning line Mike is the number seven. Munchkin money and New York Brady showed a lot of heart and determination winning first time for Christoph Clermont last time out really the only only closer in a race that featured speed speed speed and a good one in Mitchell road yeah maybe she was compromised last headmaster robots two to five and wired that fields. I did think Munchkin money finished pretty pretty gaily for third we have the replay that we can throw up there. She's GonNa come to the outside. Here's you're gonNA make ground all the way now. There's never a real point and the stretch here Dan. We're feels like she's going to win this this race but I'll give her a little extra credit for staying on gaming to the end. This was a nice performance for her. My main issue with her is this is kind of her best race eighty-six by or maybe she can get up to through an eighty nine. She's facing mares in this thick and regularly top ninety ninety one. She's going to have to run a little bit faster and she's going to need some help up front. Let's see you credible kaos-gl calc- likes in the Marshall is river. The MARSHA was river for me pretty much comes down to a two horse race it's a rematch from the forever forever together stakes six running back with duct between Dina. They'll sir and sweet by him by I in the sweet bye bye was the favourite but was run down and actually dropped back to finish. Finish third when Indiana. They'll serve in got up for the win. I think this is a case where the tables are turned in here. That wasn't a raceway at peace figures for it was is run over that new AC with duct outer turf course and there just wasn't enough data to make pace figures but the race flow kind of indicated that the rates really set up for horses coming from off the pace Sweet by and by that day as you'll see in the replay was pretty much wide the whole way around the track meet a premature move. My guess that would be the piece was on the hot side if anything just looking at where the horses finished that. We're up on the lead. She made that premature move. Made to Lee couldn't hold off the closers including clued Indiana del Sur and Theodore be. WHO's not in here Theodore be but I was really impressed with the race that day. I think she her speed figures. Here's our solid and here. They match up with Indiana. They'll surrey was as a matter of trip so my pick in this race is going to be sweet by and by five. We're GONNA play horizontal or or I should yeah horizontal wagers. I would include Indiana. They'll circus that wouldn't surprise me if she wins but given the results last time I think sweet by and buys offer a little bit more more value here. I'm going to cry on this one. I I like sweet by and by in this race more than anything else. It's just a situation where I feel like. She's a much better horse when they get her involved early on. I would just love to see Louis. I get very aggressive with this philly in this race and just put right up there either on or on the leader right up there on the pace on the outside. I'm putting some pressure onto. I don't want him reading this rated on our last two and I just don't think those are her best races I to respect sweet by and by speed but I also think the number two piece by a piece is going to show a little early ability in this spot maybe piece by piece can keep sweet by and by occupied enough to set things up for Andina del Sur. who took care air sweet by and by last time out? We saw that quick bursts of speed on the turn for her to take the lead and hold sway in the forever together. I think a similar trip is coming. I think she you can sit third or fourth and make a bold move turning into the stretch career form right now dean. Dull stir for trainer Tommy albertrani. She's my top pick in the marshes river. Let's say at Gulfstream with stay on the turf that stay or the tropical turf field for Saturday's tenth race at Gulfstream in Park. It's the grade three one hundred thousand dollar tropical turf stakes. We're going to mile on the weeds. The horse to beat is your morning line favorite Mike. That's the number eight a thread of blue. The sources already won a seven figure race in his career going gate to wire in the Saratoga Derby now now that's a key statement gate to wire because there's a lot of speed in this race and a threat of blues going to have to deal with those other speeds. I wonder if you can get the trip that he really wants in this race as it makes his four year old debut. You're off a little bit of a layoff. I mean he's obviously a talented horse. He's won some nice races. It's worth noting that he is graded stakes winner. At Gulfstream. Without deleting did win the Palm Beach last year from a stalking position. Maybe you can do it again. Dan you know we'll see what happens. The kind horse so I feel like in this situation on shore price. I might be willing to try to be criminal counts. Ski Agrees With You. Oh he feels there will be a big upfront. He's going with the closer. The great three tropical turf stakes drew a solid field at ten and the first thing that caught my was time time form. US pays for director predicted. It's going to be a fast pace That's not something that always guides every wager I make but it certainly something. I'd take a look at the if I agree with and the first thing that jumped out with me is that she was in here. The number four horse and one thing I've learned over the years are over there at least this past summer for sure and watching Gi to run for a while now is when he's in a row traits. It's almost a guarantee that the pace is going to be fast. We take a quick look at his past performances. He generally early makes the lead in those races. He didn't the one time two races back. But I I think it was Voodoo Song and another horse. We're in their voodoo songs. Basically the same thing as this Gu when it comes to pay him being entered almost ensures a fast pace and when both of them are for sure will be but in this case. There's any any other speeding here to force deduce hand. I'm not sure he could raid even if there wasn't so I'm really solid thinking that agreeing with the pace for decker that there will be a fast pace and looking at that the worst grabbed it gravitated towards was exalting. He's being ridden by top rated writer Rod Ortiz. He should fit perfect. Fit this horse like a glove in this situation and we're really caught my eye with this source a couple of things first. The speed figures are really solid for this field. I wouldn't say either particularly grade three level but I don't think this is the strongest greed. Three field you're going to see if you take a look at the time for. US class ratings. On the left side. Which I've circled? They're they're all in the twenties. And this reese actually gets a pre race race rating from us have only won seventeen so even though it looks like a step up in class from two of his three races he different agreed to last time. It's actually a pretty big dropping class so I'm willing to forgive that live race last time out. I thought Audie ramp pretty well. He he closed nice he just was against some better horses and Stover Guard an admission office. who were able to finish in front of them? But he was only two lengths behind mind. I think the pace setups really going to suit them. As I said and the clash drop and I think he is definitely the Horse to beaten tropical turf. I'M GONNA try the number two Murad in this race for maybe just off to pay. I liked it. The sources of adaptable as far as his tactical abilities go let's put up a replay of his most recent going back to September first here so it's a little bit of a layoff for him. This is the red bank. They put him up close to the pace in here. You see him get to a short lead right but he never has enough to to hold off to visit Darrow and despite he's going to settle for third all in all I thought he ran fine. But he's GonNa have to do a little better than that. I just liked the fact that there's a lot of pace case in this race and he's a horse who's shown that if they go fast in front of him he will sit and make a run from off the pace and I'm just hoping that Pokka Lopez that kind of a trip for him in this spot. I'M GONNA go with Craig Reagan here. I like Exalt and he's winless on turf but he's proven his mettle at the mile winning the two hundred and fifty thousand dollar Oaklawn Mile. I start off the Michael Maker claim and in in that last race the Fort Lauderdale arguably better horses. He was sort of covering up. Most of the trip never really got a clear chance in the lane and he was finishing on at the end with a a fast paced. Cutting back to this mile distance. I think it also going to set a very nicely for exalting six to one in the morning line. I think he gets bet down. But I think he's fair at around four Wartawan or nine to to David Aragon of time for us for his spotlight segment. This week is going to focus in on the say Florida. Sandy stakes the the feature race at Ecuador's for this week's time formulas Pollen Glenn or take a look at the eighth race on Saturday at acqueduct it's the same Florida's sandy stakes at seven furlongs furlongs on the dirt for the New York breads and pretty competitive field drawn here. Seven runners think you can make a solid case for about five of them. Let's begin by taking a look at the past performances of the morning. Line favorite favorite. That's the number three my boy. Tate's he's coming off a win and in New York stallion series race last time in November He got a sloppy track right over that day. He's a horse. That definitely likes so at track. He's four four over wet surfaces. He's fight over dry dirt titties likely to get a dry surface on Saturday at acqueduct. He obviously loves the seven furlong distance and I think he makes a lot a lot of sense if he takes any kind of step forward off his last race. It's just he doesn't have the kind of speed figures that's just as any major over this field and it's going to take money off that last race. I I think we can find some better value in here. Another horse it's likely to attract plenty of support. Is the number seven the caretaker. Now he's a horse that only to one fourteen time formula speaker offers victory last time at acqueduct going the seven furlong distance. But it's worth noting. He got a one twenty two final time figure that that's the number that would equate to the Beyer speed figure. Just based on the final time his number was downgraded though for the time form USB figure of one fourteen because he was closing into a slow pace that day anytime you see a slow slow pace in a sprint race is little easier to achieve a find a faster final time. 'cause conserve energy in the early going on the caretaker was penalized for that though. It's worth noting that he did pass has horses that were more Benefited by that slow paced. Because they were up on it where see came for doubt a couple of lengths off the pace. He ran really well last time regardless of any discussion about the speed figures and I think if he continues on trajectory. He's going to be tough. Here for Rudy Rodriguez. Just there's not a ton of pace in this race and I wonder if he's going to get that same kind of trip against tougher field old The number five t lips fight another one that I would consider. He'll be a slightly better price in here and I like his effort a lot last time in the graves end going. The six furlong distance He he finished behind forensic fire. WHO'S A grade one winner as a two year old but he's been competitive ingred to in grade one stakes since then and he read really wealthy loves a fight? He's he's the kind of horse that is pretty scrappy always steps up to the occasion and last time out. I thought he actually could have gotten closer. At the end of Dylan Davis had ever been able to get him off the rail. Coming to the Eighth Pole you finally got him off about the sixteenth pole making up ground of the leaders late. He handled seven furlongs seven for long distance and he's got versatile running style or he doesn't have to come from that far back and if we're not moving too quickly upfront. Perhaps he can get a good tactical position speaking of the pace situation. Let's take a look at the time formulas pace projector for this race. And you see the number. Six Arthur's hope is predicted to be on the leading the situation favoring horses in that position I think that's important to note because when you go through this race there's just really not a whole lot of speed signed on Arthur's hope but if you look at his. PP's is a horse that does run is best races when he's four placed if he's on the lead or just stalking the pace off one other runner. That's okay for him but when he has to come from a a little farther off the pace or take some dirt his face. That's when he doesn't run so well so that that that is going to be on the lead in this race I think bodes really well for his chances. I know that it's recent performances. Don't look inspiring his coming off. A string of three straight fourth place finishes to since the layoff but his raise last time. Not that bad because Chateau just ran off on the lead that day he exhibit chasing position that I said he doesn't really like and then to back he was in that race behind my boy. Taleb's a fight that's a race where my NTL's apply both benefited from a pace. That just fell apart and Arthur's who was contesting pace so I think he was a little compromised by his trip that day. This time over a dry surface which he's fight over if he gets just think he's going to be really tough to run down and he's got that back speed figures of one twenty and one twenty-five that arguably making the fastest horse in this race can repeat them so I like Arthur's open the state Florida. Sandy deported to get somewhere in the five or six to one rate. I think we might just do that. Time for best bet segment here on out of the gate Craig. mcaliskey's got something in for you at aqueduct. Curious pace play if you will for my best bet this week. I'm going to head to act with duct and Saturday three SEC- for the sandy stakes And the Horse I wound up going with Arthur's. Hope he's been tabbed by my podcast partner. David arrogant at five to one on the morning line and I think he offers some real value. Are you for a couple of reasons first off our time for. US Pace projector. I left a small insert on the graphic year. Shows him on on what should be a pretty clear easy lead against INTAS group he. He's a horse who is run very well in the past when he gets a similar situation. But it doesn't necessarily have to have the lead. He's run good the greatest when he sits just off the lead so I don't think he has to have the lead if he gets a great but but either way I think is a good spot because a Lotta horses near. Don't don't have a lot of tactical speed like he does. I also think he has some pretty hidden form. Pretty decent hidden form in here is last two races since the layoff have been wondering first one came over sloppy track. He told through a pretty fast. Patience Ziadeh opening piece figure of one thirty five that day with pressure so he did lose to a couple. My boy tate t loves a fight were in their wound up finishing ahead of them. But I don't think the race dynamics will really with him that day and last asked I was. It was even more severe when you expect a little better ray second off the layoff Iran in the Chateau who just ran off on the front end. Set some crazy fractions You can see the peace. Figures are all highly didn't read and time for us and not only that it was a track where speed did not do particularly well. That's what the one seventeen race rating highlighted away. Didn't blue indicates that closers had a field day at Akwa docked on that day so I think Arthur's hope is going to have quite a different trip in here these. He's experiences last time and hopefully turn the tables on some of the others in the field. Data beaten them the last couple of races back going down to Gulfstream upstream from my best batteries number seven. It's an entry level allowance race around two turns for three year olds moon over. Miami is my best bet number eight in this race. We made this horse a horse. Watch gotcha out of the gate. A couple of weeks ago for this maiden when it aqueduct. In his second career start they stretched out here off of a sprint debut. That was better than it looks. And this source just took a big step forward. The structure has got a ton of pedigree to handle the added distance. Here maybe post eight is an added level of difficulty for him but he supposed to fall into a pretty nice trip in this race ace. They've made him a very generous three to one in the morning line. I think he's going to be something much shorter than that and race number seven on Saturday but I like the way this horses. How did I think he has a chance to be one of the better? Are Three year olds coming up my best on Saturday Laurel race number two. That's the number. Six Sir Brahms. Who made the first start off? The claim last time out I think was just ridden way too aggressively by seven pound bug rider. We turn into the stretch and Brahms's emerged from the pace scrum with the league. You see those fractions are pretty hot at Laurel oral and BRAHMS'S GONNA pay the price for his early efforts here. I think the key on Saturday in a race number two is that's going to be a one hundred eighty degree different pace scenario oriole. There is no speed signed on time for. US has a gray bar scenario. and Sir Brahms breaking from. The outside has options he can go to the lead or sit just just off the expected. Moderate pace this barnes been going great guns at Laurel lately and Sue Brahms's pretty nice price on the morning line. He'll be my best bet on Saturday race to number six at Laura we thank you for watching out of the gate we urge you to follow all of. TV's latest offering. Please follow on social media on twitter at D.. RF video and from the latest news notes America's Turf Authority daily racing form. Please follow on twitter at D. R. F. Side Post. That's it for this week. Best of luck when your voice is breaking the gate.