AFC West Football Preview: Best Bets, Picks and Predictions
That thou board. We ever bet you. Twenty bucks i can get. You can't with forty year only fifteen grand how they pay debts men his manny. It's the board. Podcast really really like the and i could still pick winners can still make money for all kinds of people back home. Why mess up a good thing. Here's pain insider and toddler into the bet. The board podcast powered by fan duel sportsbook. It is our eighth and final. Nfl preseason preview with the afc west on tap nfl preseason officially in the rear view mir which means we're two short weeks away or thereabouts from to- meeting football for meaningful football. I am your host. Todd furman joined by my steam colleague. Costa one the only pain insider but before we get into the show. It's the perfect time to remind you to fan. Duel dot com backslash bet aboard take advantage of all their generous new user sign ups for all you folks in the state of arizona looking at you fan duel expects to be live on opening night for the national football league september ninth. It is the perfect bankroll builder promotion. One thousand dollars in free bets absolutely risk-free make your deposit. If you happen to lose your. I bet fan duel. We'll reimburse you with full site credit up to seventy two hours after but we don't expect any of you our listeners to lose i bet you go in their fire and you can get things started in the right manner pain. I know you're excited because we're talking about your favorite division but probably more excited because we're almost done with the previous series thirteen preview podcast twelve or down the final one. Here we go. It's been about two months of a ton of work and preparation. Which you know we do ourselves anyways. But kind of putting the excel sheet into talking points as a little bit different and so here we are but this is. This is the final leg of thirteen preview. Podcast final of the nfl is well. You'll have over a week to go back and listen if you missed division preview. Lots of best bets. So it's been quite the the overhaul this offseason in your throat and for those folks who have been with us from the starter you just might be finding bet the board for the first time this football season we will resume our normal wednesday programming with week one of college football this week. Of course georgia clemson the main course but plenty of other great games to get into the swing of things that will allow us to remove the bad taste. Left in our mouths by watching games between fresno state yukon hawaii. Ucla and a variety of other appetizers that may not have lived up to their advanced billing pain. Perfect time to remind folks about the ba. The board football zero if you wanna share that information for all of them. Yes the annual. Nfl pick five contest is back. Six thousand season-long prizes. We also will reward a weekly you winner with some cash. All eighteen weeks go to bed the board contests dot com sign up. All you have to do is pick five games against the spread each and every week. It's that simple. It's free to join this plus ev. If you can't make it out to vegas and sign up for a contest. Your bankroll isn't quite there or just understand that joining a free contest again is is a plus v situation. Sign up for the contest but the board contest dot com and sign. ups continued. Get ratchet up there so tell your friends tell your family get everyone involved and pain before we get into the four teams. We do have remaining. I wanted to take a few minutes to answer a couple of questions that have come across on social media and normally you and i are relatively tight lipped about what goes on outside of the the board brand from professional things and everything else along those lines but a number of folks wanna thank all of you for asking questions is you saw potential press release that shared what the upcoming cast is gonna look like for fox. Bet live in season four. I will not be a part of the show going forward. And i know people were a little bit surprised asking what we had in store. Plenty of big things around here but that was a personal decision as much as anything else. The format of the show was changing. It won't be daily. Fox is actually let anybody know that to be the case. one of our co host. Rachel veneta moving onwards and upwards taking a job with nfl network. So just felt for me. Personally it was the right time to move away from that franchise after three years no. I wasn't fired. Fox did offer me a contract extension. Maybe not one that. I strongly considered along those lines but wanted to try and squash some of the rumors that were out there people go. Oh well you lost last season. They didn't invite you back. Couldn't have been further from the truth network. Wanna try and make a commitment. I just didn't feel it was in my best interest. Think there's a lot of other things worth exploring in this space. And since this is our podcast. It's a hell of a lot better to do it here and explain some of that to you. Guys that have been with us along the way more so than sharing now with you know one hundred eighty characters or whatever. Twitter allows these days so wanted to get that out there and across of course if folks have questions feel free to hit me up on twitter and i'm happy to answer that and share some of that so didn't want to steal your thunder or anything like that pain but felt. This was the perfect avenue to tryin share some of that professional update for those folks that have been with us for a long time. No not at all. I think it's the perfect venue to get some information out when you own things and yona podcast say whatever the hell you want and for me. You know my feelings on this situation. I've been very supportive. And i think the way this works between you. And i is. That were polar opposites so it doesn't make me upset at all. It actually makes me happy because things that i've been preaching to you for years about own things build your own things. I mean that. That's my emma and so i have seen over the years how the networks treat their employees and certainly not my vibe and and listen. Let's be candidate. It's great to say you have a television show. It works great at parties and nights out and but the reality is you can make far more building your own brand doing it on your own. This is not the first time we've seen this. We saw play on the espn side from someone in the gambling. Space walk. i'm leaving. i'm going to start my own network and so this this is commonplace. And i think when you get to a stage and you can correct me if i'm wrong and i'm not taking a shot at you. We've had these conversations privately but when it comes to the network there's very few people that that call their own shots and whether we think they're great talents are not i guess. The views acquaint to them making big box. But i mean. There's only a handful of people. The stephen a. smith the skip bayless colin cowards. That call their own shots and eventually what happens. Is you get to be a todd firm. And in that tier we'll call two or three category and the question becomes. Do we hire cheaper and you can. You can go there. There's lots of guys dying for digital jobs in this space for fifty sixty seventy thousand bucks and so eventually if you're not deemed to be skip bayless. That's kind of an interest. Yeah it's it's an interesting game that i've been hesitant to talk about but mean that's why i love this podcast so much dot and that's been talking about this expansion for for years. I mean last year. You talk about the audio version of this podcast. We peaked at twenty six in the all sports category of apple podcasts. And that's thanks in part or listenership. We were the only podcast that didn't come from a network or wasn't a podcast network. The only podcast that didn't have distributions. Thanks to you guys and so if you create good content. I've long maintained. You don't need the networks people are gonna find you and so i know obviously your goal is to be on television and i think that will happen in the right situation but for now we're going to expand but the board and i think it's going to go well for you you know you're right. It's all about the dynamic created. And i think when you look at the sports betting ecosystem right now. There's a lot of content that you know to put it nicely. As rather questionable we've obviously been able to prove our authenticity and part of our models but there is a difference right what you're seeing now in. Our space is good content verses content being created for content sake right and i think we are the former we create content when we started two thousand fourteen that we did just to do and we continue to create good content whereas where you're seeing the space head now. People are just waking up in the morning and creating content for the paycheck in creating content for the clicks and there isn't actually a lot of great content even in this space now despite the oversaturation of gotta know there are a lot of challenges that come into it and as we've tried to always convey to you guys are loyalists. Nurses painted has shared. We do it for you guys. All the feedback is great. The interaction we love the five star reviews on itunes and the continued uptick and downloads. That we've seen over the years but it's all about trying to make you guys smarter and better and so much of the gambling space these days all about picks but you know what even the best in the world. they're gonna lose forty five percent of the time during the course of their best seasons. So what kind of value can you add to the infrastructure on those other days. It's teaching you metrics trying to highlight situations and hopefully you guys can continue to make more informed choices but didn't wanna go off on a tangent share here. I think this is a great subject. And i didn't expect this to go along and our producer. Probably hate us for not getting this on top but the you know the reality of the situation is this is the one space where content gets air quotes graded differently right any other piece of content in the in the podcasting spaces you know. Did i get smarter from it. Did i learn something. Did it entertain me. And that's it. This is the one space where you can take ten hours to. Prep for the podcast. Another three hours recording and post production and someone goes to the you know the best bat sixteen seconds of content loses in. You're getting a one star review and that's the difference in the space which is odd to me so we just need to be smarter like we love our listeners. Because the smarts in the space but if you can continue to help us grow by sharing the podcast leading friends no co workers. It's a huge help because we've seen where things are heading right now and it's sad to say this again you go back to like putting in ten hours of crap and then another three hours of recording and post production and it's awesome right you get you tweet out the podcast. She get fifty likes but the reality where the space is heading. You know the half naked girl can take a selfie in the picture and it's four thousand likes and it's like wow maybe i should start creating fourteen second content instead of fifteen our content. So you know it's up to you guys to like favorite share the best content in this space and maybe grow up and be a little bit more mature and things of nature and not get you know succumb to the half naked girls on the internet but there we go rent over. It's all about marketing and trying to take advantage there and as pain said this'll be the biggest most comprehensive season that we have in store for you with the board a major announcement that will share most likely next week to get you guys ready for something that we're gonna fail in time for the nfl season but enough about all of that again. Just wanna share some of those professional updates with all of you guys and girls out there who i see extended family. Even if we don't know you by your first name we appreciate the ears that you guys continue to contribute to growing this especially with thirteen. Preseason podcasts before we even start talking about regular season football but onto the afc west the last and final division as we talked about. And as we've done for the first seven divisions will run things down in alphabetical order. So for me pain who may not be the best when it comes organizing my bookshelf. I think d- would mean the denver would be the first team that we're going to hit on. And when you look at the denver broncos they're seven to one hundred dollars to win the afc west their win total sits at eight and a half flat. If you want more on the win total you can understand where sentiments come from by going back and listening to the last podcast we provided when you look at the broncos four straight losing seasons for the first time since the late sixties for a once proud franchise. They haven't made the playoffs since they won the super bowl back in two thousand fifteen sixteen finish last year with the worst turnover differential at minus sixteen they have the worst divisional record since two thousand sixteen but when you look at their schedule. Things offer a heck of a lot of potential. We talked a little bit about teddy bridgewater. Getting the nod over drew lock. But when you look at this offense pain. It has the potential to be sneaky. Good with a lot of playmakers there that if they're not household names now fantasy players across this country and everywhere else are going to know their names by the end of the season yet. Let's start with where we finished. The last podcast. And it is that quarterback situation and it's clear that vic fangio number wanted the safer more conservative quarterback. And i think that's the quarterback that won't hurt fangio's defense and he's teddy bridgewater certainly has the higher floor and he's the guy that you know when you look at the schedule out of the gates but you kind of alluded to his very manageable to start so i i think teddy's the guy and as a better. I like the guy with less ferrets. But if i'm an owner or a gm i sure shit don't wake up in the morning asking myself. Like how can i win. Nine or ten games in year three of this regime. And i look around and i understand patrick mahomes in herbert or in my division and i need a quarterback that gives me the highest ceiling and i also what's interesting to me and maybe i'm a little different todd. I understand through information in my eyes. The drew lock that. We saw last season. Probably isn't the drew lock. We're getting this year bought. It was clear he worked more. This offseason improving his game and mental side more than any other year in his life for my understanding and you look at some of the upside stuff twenty four. it's got a canon for an army also runs four six and we know he doesn't lack confidence so interesting that he does not. He is not lacking as far as bravados concerned. No so it's interesting from that perspective. Now i love tattoos. A miami guy. And he's battled back through adversity so you have to love that. He's a great dude. But we saw very good coach. And mike zimmer move on we saw sean payton one of the best defensive mind say rather go tasted miller jameis winston and then we had matt rule one of the better program builders who typically has showed year to leaps along his journey and he knows that joe brady his o. Oc has a relationship with teddy for multiple years but in year two. You'd rather all the dyson sam darnold. And so we question coaches all the time and rightfully so. But we're now looking. At a situation where zimmer sean payton in rule all decided to move on her wrong now maybe the strategy here is simple. It's like go out win nine ten eleven games. And then you prove to aaron rodgers that. Hey we have great team here. The roster's loaded the only thing missing is you. It's interesting from from that perspective on the quarterback choice. And maybe if you want to share some of your thoughts before we go into the the actual offense no. I think it makes a ton of sense. I mean oftentimes we all get lured in by tantalizing potential especially was star prospects. And you and. I have been critical of drew. Lock even going back to his time at missouri. The one common denominator there was hey look drew. Scott all the physical tools and traits. But he's lacking something every time very stepped up in class. You never got that herculean effort even what we saw in some games from a guy like johnny manziel where he could put the team on his back. It felt this off season. And you talked about it that we were getting a different drew. Lock the maturity in his quotes in comments. Kind of came through and preseason performances. Neither here nor there in my opinion When you're looking at the main position but just his demeanor and expectations more so than anything else led me to believe that. Hey look the light might finally be going on and this guy realizes that. He's not going to be pampered. Coddled as this elite arm. Talent that you've been all along the way income teddy bridgewater. We thought he was going to be a logical potential backup. If denver was going to be able to make a move for aaron rodgers this off season. I think you talking about the fact that three teams in the past with highly respected coaches have parted ways with teddy and we love the fact. He's been able to recover and make himself as much money as he has. After that horrific injury suffered that not only was going to be career ending but potentially life-threatening as well if they weren't able to med vac away from the facility. I think you talking about aaron rodgers potentially seeing how talented this roster is thinking to himself. we get to december january once. Green bay is eliminated from the playoffs. Going you know. What if i was playing with that much talent around me. This is a team that's committed. I've gone up against vic. Fangio led defenses when he was the dc in chicago. This is the perfect landing spot for me to be an upgraded to position. And i think it makes a ton of sense for a team that honestly paint. Turn the ball over thirty two times last season on offense and when you look at tatty he'll be the fifth different week one starter over the last five years for the denver broncos. So let's see what they have. There's no excuses for teddy. He can't blame this denver. Supporting cast or lack of time spent on red zone execution as the reason if he's not able to excel this year. There's no doubt about that. And you're going to get an accurate quarterback. You're also gonna get a vocal leader and that's something that even drew lock said after succumbing to defeat and said. Hey i'm gonna learn from teddy here in one of his best attributes is is being a leader. Now you're also going to get a guy that throws a very catchable ball and is accurate. I mean even last year teddy's completion percentage is about two and a half percent above expectation. The knock untidy as that. He's gay manager right. He won't push the ball downfield and last year we saw averaged five point. One completed air yards now. Fifth lowest among qualifying quarterbacks hopefully he here's out of touch more this season. He claimed that he got hurt. In the second buccaneers game week. Ten last year said he should have shut. shut it down so maybe we give teddy. The benefit of the doubt carolina did have the eighth most efficient offense the first nine weeks before this injury that he mentioned they finished seventeenth and then they had an end of season waited rank of nineteenth so maybe some truth to the injury teddy also face. The very toughest schedule of passing defense is in two thousand twenty with carolina but denver projects to face the very easiest schedule. Pass defenses this year now. A lot of the offensive issues. Aren pat shurmur who. I don't love as an oc not aggressive enough for me. Denver had the fifth lowest early down pass rate in the first half last year so no surprise that they were thirtieth in early down. Success need to up that aggression. Especially if you're going with the more experienced quarterback your starting teddy because you trust him so you can't baby the weapons around teddy that you mentioned are young. They're plentiful probably a bit undervalued. Cordon sutton back after an injury last season but in two thousand nineteen finished eighth in yards per route rung among receivers with at least one hundred targets jerry. Judy should see a year to search. Fantastic route runner. And then all of a sudden he caught the case of the drops last year which he's never dealt with before getting nineteen percent. Drop percentage was the highest among receivers with at least one hundred targets. Caja hamlet didn't have nearly the amount of targets judy but he also had a nineteen percent. Drop right himself. And so what you're hearing from. Some of the receivers is that teddy delivers a very catchable ball. Maybe there's not as much venom on it. As as when drew lock is thrown it so that that should improve. And then you have. Tim patrick who is a plus receiver. Denver actually turned down a raven trade for him. You have no fan tight end. When he's healthy is a match up nightmare. I think the big question offensively is the line. Denver finished twenty eighth. Then line yards last season. Didn't create much space upfront. They're also twenty four th and pass block win rate they bring in bobby massey at right tackle. He's been a plus right tackle but obviously the hope was john. James would be their guy. Their class cow was the big signing last year. I think you'll have a better year. Dalton riser is i think poised for year three surge. Cushenberry is a question market center but he was a rookie last year and a weird off season. Denver also drafted kind of the the star of of offensive linemen in this past year's draft quinn miners and he's had a great camp so far in preseason. Let's see if denver can get average line play. I think the sky's the limit and it's possible. That can happen for a few reasons. Because i think teddy will be better. Identifying things pre snap and shifting some protections he gets rid of it quicker than drew lock. And then you look at the projected schedule of pass rushing defenses. It's bottom five. So i think those things will help with pass blocking. And then all the intel. I have says devante williams could be the best broncos back since terrell davis and the schedule of run defenses projects to bottom three there. So let's see if if all these things kind of assist in and below the average to below average o. line play but that would be a massive upgrade offensively. The pieces appear to be there. Obviously there are some questions. We're not going to pretend that. This denver broncos team will be as high flying prolific as what we saw from peyton manning and his fifty touchdown pass campaign but the nice part denver defensively. They felt a little bit on hard times a season ago. They felt the twenty fifth allowing nearly twenty eight points per game. You look at some of the editions. A couple key in the secondary. When you bring in kyle fuller you bring in ronald darby. You lose giral. Casey along your defensive line. Ag boy they release. I mean that was this situation that got uglier by the day last season. They've now gone three straight seasons outside the top ten thirty three takeaways over the last two seasons combined and while they were outstanding in the red zone. Well that's one thing but if you're going to allow teams to score from outside the red zone. It's not that big a deal they allow seventy-six plays of twenty plus yards. You would think with von miller coming back completely healthy. It will bolster that pass rush. But what kind of expectations should we have for a denver. Stop unit knowing that vic fangio's defensive. Dna should be all over this group. And there's only one direction for them to go is up after a disappointing campaign just a year ago. I mean vic fangio's guy that we've talked about on this podcast for years is one of the best defensive mind ever coach football and his is were built to stop passing offenses before. Those were actually thing. So real revolutionary honestly and to me. Last year i thought the broncos defense was very impressive especially when you consider all of the negative factors. I mean denver. Had one of the most injured defenses. They were decimated along the deal on. The offense was such a mess. That denver's defense started their defensive possessions. On average at the thirty two that was the third worst starting field position for a defense last season. And then add to that denver face third most difficult schedule of offenses and the most difficult schedule passing offenses. And some how fangio managed to have the fourth best early down defense and the defense was well above average and overall efficiency. Now i look at denver. And you mentioned they get von miller. Back chubb in personnel are also back healthy. A defense that spent on kyle fuller and ronald darby and free agency and then drafted pats retain junior with the ninth. Pick of the draft. So you know a defense also projects to face a bottom five schedule of offenses in a bottom five schedule of passing offenses and a defense. That i'm assuming won't see its opponents. Start drives at the thirty. Two doodoo turnovers and incessant. Three and outs. I mean denver's defense also spent thirty two minutes a game on the field. That was a top ten right. And you think about this first second todd and i think you know we kind of know denver's defense can be and we spent a ton of time on the broncos longer than i think most expected but you think about starting field position for opponents and then correlate that to mile high where you can like bang field goals home from sixty like their layups when teams are starting at the thirty two about two first downs and teams were in field goal range at some point last season so i think that completely changes this year. I think denver has a chance to be an elite defense pending injuries. A unit that probably fights to be top-five inefficient on you know it's a team that's interesting. It's a franchise that prides itself on being extremely relevant and winning championships. Not just trying to compile winning seasons. But it's been a long time coming part of that is because of instability at the quarterback position so we'll see if that gets rectified this year and they can lean on defense and skill position cast. I think we're more bullish on the lot of folks but when you talk about gold standards for skill positions pain it starts with one franchise and they become the preeminent gold standard. Not just in the afc. Maybe the entire nfl over the last couple of years that of course the kansas city chiefs and their rightful favorites to win this division for the sixth straight season. You're looking at fan. Duel sportsbook laying a price. Just shy of three to one their win. Total sits at twelve and a half year. lay a buck. Forty if you wanna go under that number patrick mahomes. This is a quarterback who already accomplished a ton and is very short. Nfl career ironically enough. He'll entered this season with chip on. His shoulder comes in off his worst loss as an nfl. Starting quarterback nine points of course was the worst offensive output. We've seen from the chiefs with mahomes a quarterback trying to become the four team. Nfl history to reach their third straight super bowl. Eighty one score games. A season ago won eleven consecutive road game streak. That still active. And when you look at patrick. Mahomes and andy reid. The true dynamic duo in the nfl these days four and ten so far as head coach and starting quarterback kansas city pain. The sky may be the limit. We've seen super bowl hangover. Be something very real. But when you look at this chiefs offense. I think the biggest question mark comes with an offensive line. That's going to have a lot of fresh faces in key positions when you look at kansas city. Obviously both the floor in the ceiling are extremely high. When you have andy reid and mahomes in tyreek and kelsey it's really great talent executing a great scheme and that's that's a tough combination to beat the principles and play calling are virtually false. You know andy. Reid does all of the things that we preach to help. An offense as if he doesn't have any talent right from motion rates to using a really good amount of play action to passing on early downs to not running in second long situations and not running into eight men boxes all of the stuff that we kind of preach that good offense is in good coordinators over the years. Andy reid habit of doing all of that. And there's only gonna be varying degrees of great for kansas. City's offense if the key cog stay healthy but you mentioned one of the areas to address. And i think there's a couple but i think the most glaring one is is the offensive line and you know this was probably one of the more talked about units in the last six months in the entire league and that was that was the offensive line. And you know it's basically been torn down to the studs in rebuilt. Eric fisher is a thirty one year old coming off a late season achilles tear so the chiefs moved on mitchell. Schwartz is thirty two incoming off back surgery so they let him walk. He's still a free agent for the last two seasons. When you look at the chiefs offensive line they finished twenty six and twenty third and pressure. It allowed each of the last two seasons the chiefs o. Line is finished thirty. First and blown block rate and last year the chiefs thirty first and run block win rates so from my eyes when i look at this complete overhaul like i'm ecstatic orlando brown not only upgrades. The left tackle position be just turned. Twenty five better. An younger like that's a great combination. Joe tony is in his prime sign. One of the most lucrative guard deals in nfl. History creed humphry was a second round. Pick this year trace smith. That's probably name. You remember. Todd he's the former all world five star tackle recruit who dealt with issues at tennessee on and off the field. It was a boomer bossed flyer type pick in round six this year so far. It's been all boom. He is in line to be the chief styler Starting right guard. You have lucas neang. He was twenty twenty third round. Pick out of tcu. He's been really impressive and projected to start at right tackle. So what i've seen brett. Vj do is get younger more talented and also built great depth. Along the only remember. Like there's still guys. They're like mike remers and austin blythe and tardiff and wylie and kyle long that have all played a ton of starting snaps in this league so this overhaul might mean not only just an improved on but just kind of looking at the parts and their strengths. We might see a little shift in in run scheme here but bottom line. This chiefs online went from a major liability six months ago to probably projecting as a top ten unit. Right now i think the other question i have is the outside receiver position opposite tyreek hill. Is it demarcus. Robinson byron pringle or someone not on the roster so that'll be interesting to watch roster cuts get down to. I think fifty three at four. Pm tomorrow maybe. The chiefs make a move. We obviously know tyreek hill is. He's one of the top receivers in the league. And i think nicole hardman appears ready for nice little coming out party. That is a guy that runs four three damn good after the catch. He's built a pretty nice floor. But i think the chiefs are looking for more there. Obviously but the question for me is like who's wide receiver three. I'm not really a demarcus. Robinson guy looks great getting off. The bus makes loads of mistakes. He turned out less than one yard. Peru outrun last season byron pringle is a kansas state. Guy ultimate hard work story overachiever. Smart does all the little things does all the right things. He just doesn't have a dynamic trait. So i think brent beach needs to add someone to this room. I'm shocked has called miami obvious you know. Honestly for for one of their receivers knowing they're looking for some align depth that felt like probably a pretty good match trade the other thing. That's interesting todd. And i obviously love patrick mahomes but at you do panama read. That's you do he to play with a little more urgency to start games and speaking with more on the other day. And you know. It's in the preview magazine at sharp football. They pointed out. The chiefs went into halftime with an average lead of three and a half points last season lead at halftime in just nine games. That was kind of the difference last year because the prior two seasons the chiefs went into halftime with leads of six point. Nine points in seven and a half points. And when i dig into some of mahomes metrics he was seventeenth in. Epa per pass attempt on first downs. The first three quarters so that dwindled last year and is partly responsible for the team getting out of the gates a little bit slower. We know great moms is right. Means the first quarterback every organization takes redraft right the second the arm talent is through the roof off platform throws unmatched. The one. the other night against the vikings was just ridiculous and he threatens a defense the way no other quarterback can't but he does need to kind of dial in on some of the fundamentals last year twenty fourth in on target percentage completion percentage of one percent below expectation. You could see a situation where you have a young kid that's in the limelight and getting all the press any win the super bowl in two thousand nineteen you probably get to touch complacent cove. It hits his wife gets pregnant. Suddenly the urgency dips touch. But everything. i'm hearing mahomes is is focused back in so those are really the three things that i'm looking for this season. The chiefs wanna make another run is the enhanced o. Line play a second outside. Receiver to emerge in mahomes to clean up some of the small things but the real positive here. Todd passed the obvious dalit and the great coaching. Kansas city's offense faces a projected schedule of defenses bottom ten overall bottom ten against the pass and bottom five against the run. It should open up all sorts of opportunities. I don't think anybody goes oh. We expect kansas city to fall off a cliff by any stretch of the imagination. We'll call that super bowl performance. Thirty one nine loss at tampa. More an anomaly than anything else when you look at this team defensively pain. We know that they don't get nearly enough credit for how they've been built at team. Essentially that's built a defense to protect leads more than anything else. We know that they're vulnerable against the run but kansas city's often scores points. It forces a lot a lot more pressure on their opposition. You pin your ears back with pass rushers and you can have a very good secondary this off season. They go out. They add mike hughes in that department. Sharon reed who's been a disruptor along the defensive line you bring a nick bolton through the draft. You do lose brillon quietly. Kansas city's put together a top ten defense. Each of the last two seasons as far as points per game allowed us concern. They are a little bit vulnerable in the red zone where they allowed opponents to score on more than seventy five percent of their trips. But when you look at. Kansas city and i found this number staggering when the kansas city chiefs holder opponents below. Thirty points there. Thirty three and to the last thirty five instances. So it's not as though this team has to be the two thousand baltimore ravens by any stretch of the imagination. But you guys jerry sneed and willie gay who are taking up tyron. Matthew is an absolute beast at the back end. I think the biggest question is what. Are you going to get from a pass. Rush between chris jones and frank clark who's really fallen off or at least did fall off last season. I mean i think you've hit this perfectly. And i think a lot of people know my feelings about spags at this point and he's a guy that i truly respect and he manages to get production. That's better than some of its parts. And i think we all know some of the big names on the chiefs defense that everyone talks about any you talk chiefs defense. And it's chris jones. it's tyron matthew. Both those guys to me have some issues right chris. Jones is fantastic but he plays a real boomer style tyron. Matthew is undoubtedly a very good player. But i think he's probably overvalued by the general public francorp is you colluded to needs to step up a one trick. Pony pass rusher in last year. He was only in the fiftieth percentile. Among rushers yellow. Can't set the address. Stop in the run. Game either is not very good. I don't like the fact that spags cut taco charlton. I think that he had some potential an upside to him. Especially what you're paying him didn't really love that. Move but bottom line. Is i believe if the chiefs defense wants to get back to. Its two thousand nineteen form when they were above average. And that's all that needs to be is above average defense is if the young guys get them there and the position that i've talked about for a few seasons. That needed upgrading was linebacker. And i know it's not a value position but it was just so bad and so we saw brett. Vh go out back to backdraughts and round to pick up. Willie gay junior than nick. Bolton this year willie gays. Been all the buzz this offseason. He's a sideline decide linebacker. Something the chiefs haven't had in years. He was truly missed the super bowl. And then you have some of the guys in the secondary that you mentioned. I think bread. Vh in spags of done. Great work finding young value guys in the secondary luxurious nita. Someone we've talked about. For multiple years now in spags raved about him. That was his. That was his guy. Fifty three passer rating when targeted. You still have rashad fenton. Who didn't allow a passing touchdown. All season just fifty eight percent of his targets or caught chavez ward only fifty three percent of targets to be caught. All three of those guys were selected in the fourth round or undrafted. I mean i like the trade value with mike use. That was an early round. Draft selection that zimmer. Kind of gave up on i like the value signing in jurong read. I think that's going to allow the line be a little bit more versatile. I think you'll see situations where chris jones kicked out wide this year. At certain instances of game you're also looking at a bottom ten schedule of offenses. The chiefs are going to face. So i think this unit with their young talent has a real chance to kind of get back to that two thousand nineteen level. And if they do that and we think the offense improves with align play. Chiefs are gonna make another run. And what's really interesting here. is you know. Sometimes you hear a lot of people talking by. Hey we wanna wanna fade the chiefs we to be contrary and we want to go under twelve and a half wins and i have seen a little bit money on this under and when you look at some of the pie stuff. The chiefs definitely overachieved last season. A lot of come. From behind and one score game victories. But i am not fading mahomes and i am not fading andy reid and the chiefs of gone over there. Preseason when total every single season. Andy reid has been with the chief so i i. I'm not gonna go that route in join that party but there has been a little tinge a little touch of sharp money on the under twelve and a half definitely a team that i think you kind of assess week to week of a similar mindset. Here i'm not going to try and go out there and play a little bit of hero ball and step in front of this. Kansas city freight train team. Said all the right things this off season about potentially being motivated and you can understand why after the shellacking. They took at the hands of the tampa bay bucks. So let's see them go out there. Perform we'll get a great week. One game they play host. The cleveland browns a rematch of last year's. Afc playoff game when you look at the other two teams in the division pain. The las vegas raiders. They're the biggest longshots on the board within the division seventeen to one the price at fan duel sportsbook their win. Total sits at seven flat again. John gruden's team started fast last year. Going six and three limped to the finish for the second straight season. They struggled mightily in home games. This season ago going just to exit. Of course no home field advantage in their first foray at allegiance stadium. You begin to wonder though when you continue to see the raiders. Start well and fade. Late is itself scouting or other teams figuring them out a root cause for what could be contributing to this for franchise. It has just one winning record since two thousand sixteen and one division title or playoff game since two thousand and two. I mean not a ton to be excited about for silver and black. But one thing i will say. I don't think their quarterback it's nearly if credit as they like to make him the scapegoat for everything. that's gone wrong for the then oakland. now. Las vegas raiders. Were sharing a brain here. And i think big picture when i look at gruden and derek carr. It's pretty clear they're living under the same roof but the relationships over there just kind of at that point where they're figuring out their finances and getting those in order and when the time's right one or both of them could be gone and you really think about this. Todd since gruden got the job we've heard nothing but rumours about how these two don't get along and the rumors seemingly pop up every couple months and have for three years now and where there's smoke there's fire and i don't get it like you. I i really think. Derek carr is a plus quarterback and he's been willing to change his style to bend degroot and apparently it's still not enough. If you remember gruden's been kind of firing these jabs about one encarta push the ball downfield more and that was a big thing last off season then all of sudden you look at the two thousand twenty numbers in cars average intended air yards. Were nearly two full yards deeper than two thousand nineteen. His completed air yards nearly one and a half yards deeper and he managed to push the down. The ball downfield more while also turning out the lowest adjusted interception rate in the league. And it's it's it's just never good enough for gruden. And so i kind of go back to when we discussed this hiring in the first place and gruden took this job and i think what i said then was it can work if gruden just focuses on the offense right. Find an innovative dc. Let him do his thing. Don't mess with them. And for the love of god don't fuck with the roster because we know he is just terrible at that. I mean we saw him absolutely decimate the bucks super bowl roster inside of twenty four months and he's really done the same thing here it's just a slew of baffling draft picks and paying average players more than their value to fill voids and really an over reliance on veterans and gruden to me is clueless when it comes to talent evaluation and finances and yet his hands are basically in the sauce on everything and really the scary part when you look at twenty twenty two todd and kind of the future. The raiders are top ten and both salary cap and draft capital. And there's an easy way to enhance both with car in the final year of his deal. But i think it's absolutely nuts to let gruden in this regime take another spin it spending and acquiring talent like they've proven they have no clue what they're doing. I was okay with with rebuilding and moving on from amari cooper in khalil mack. Right and the raiders. Basically from those deals got three first round picks a second round pick and a third rounder for those guys and then you sprinkle in all their own early picks on top of that and you look at that. Draft capital was turned into an. It's it's colton miller it's glenn farrell. It's josh jacobs. It's abraham it's our net and rugs. There's not one true. First round no doubt about it stuttered difference maker there you ended up with a serviceable left. Tackle a running back that lost carries towards the end of last season. And it's a devalue position you have a run setting edge and a guy that's lightning-fast in spandex. That's that's what you've basically acquired and all of that draft capital. And what's sad is you. Look the raiders. Offensively they've been pretty damn good two thousand nineteen finish sixth in success rate last season top ten again and if you have top ten offenses back to back years and you haven't sniffed the playoffs. Once in an era where offense translates to wins more than it ever has. That's a problem. But i think it kind of shows the larger point i've been making since gruden was hired. And he's just you know he's a good offense of mind. You can't question the hours. He pours into the to the game plants and the way he wants to set up play calls but he can't do anything else and he shouldn't be allowed to do anything else and there was an article that surfaced this week. Todd and it was from agents that wanted to remain anonymous but basically the first agents said gruden is one of the most dishonest coaches with players. They've ever seen and another agent was quoted as saying it's a disaster. The games passed him by and giving him full control as problematic. And so it's spot on right like you're now in year. Four of this rebuild. An oddsmakers peg you as a seven team your division and when you kind of look at this team the offensive line question marks. I think the most steady name along line is routine cognitive. Nidoish thirty eight and coming off a series achilles injury. Andre james is the projected starting center here but a hundred and sixteen snaps as a rookie in two thousand nineteen graded out the worst center in the league. He was two times worst in the second worst. Qualifying senators played one. Snap last season even if you look at his preseason work. He hasn't graded out a plus center against second and third stringers. Now i do think there could be hope for and pass protection. But i'm not comfortable on j james as my starting center denzel. Good is now the starting right guard. He's been reliable backup for years but he finally saw an expanded role last year. Almost a thousand snaps motions career. He's below average in both run in pass. Blocking colton. miller is solid. He's definitely improving his coming off as best season. But you know. His best season is the thirty six best tackle in the league last year. The raiders clearly reached on alex. Leatherwood what i do think especially in run blocking maybe rejuvenates. The raiders outside zone runs. But there's they're serious question. Marks here and the raiders project to face a top five schedule pass rushing defensive lines. Nobody truly knows what's going on. With the receiving core past darren waller and hunter renfro. What are you getting outside with brian. Words and henry rocks. And you follow this team closer than i do. Because they're in your backyard todd but for two years. All the hype in camp in practice has been brian. Edwards highlight type catches comparisons to moss. And terrell owens. Let's see translates when the lights are on. I mean he played in eleven games. Last year only had eleven catches we know henry. Rugs has an elite trait. The speed is undeniable. Kenny actually turn into a real receiver in year. Two of the full offseason. It's extremely difficult. I was looking at these numbers this morning to have a seventeen point three yard aid dot but only register one point three yards per outrun. It's it's lots of wind. Sprints and aimless running going on there from henry rug so far and so what we saw last year gruden basically went out and signed john brown as well and it's his insurance policy. Frogs can't do it. John brown basically becomes this year's nelson aguilar gruden's mind play calling in the red zone is an area that needs to improve when space shrunk gruden. Hasn't really done nearly the the same work that he was able to do. Between the twenty s. That's the one area. Where xs and os gruden's struggled a little bit raiders. Were the only top ten offense overall to finish bottom ten in the red zone. And we project the raiders to face a top three schedule of red zone. Defenses this season and it really doesn't stop there. Tie the raiders. Offense projects the phases schedule defense's top ten and overall efficiency passing defense. Pass rush defense and third down defense this year. Well i mean it's a good thing pain when you talk about the raiders. And what they did it off this off season completely retooled offensive line as you mentioned trading three extremely valuable pieces spending five and a half million dollars a year on a backup running back although everyone may or may not love the drake at this point knowing josh jacobs's trend it down. You mentioned john brown. You bring in willie snead just as though this team you know wants to try and go after certain pieces that may not fit into the greater overall agenda of what they want to accomplish. One player that. I don't think we touch and if we did. I apologize because i overlooked at their best player on the offense. Darren waller joined an elite class. A tight ends with one hundred catches and over eleven hundred yards one hundred seven catches last year third. Most in a season and nfl tight hissed at nfl. History amongst tight ends clearly. This offense has not been the issue pain because they have a defense. That's downright pathetic ranking thirtieth in the league last year in points per game allowed. And i was blown away. That the raiders have ranked in the bottom half and scoring defenses over the last eighteen seasons. Even a blind squirrel can find a nut from time to time and crack into the top fifteen. But that hasn't been the case. For the raiders. Gus bradley comes in and replace paul gunter. Who was fired week. Fourteen last year. The raiders gave a franchise worst four hundred seventy eight points last season. They allow thirty plus points in ten out of sixteen games dubious distinction that tied them with the detroit. Lions macro max crosby. That's been one of the fines that this team can hang. Its hat on defensively. But you mentioned draft capital. Jonathan abram graded out is one of the league's worst safeties damon net towards the bottom of the barrel as far as defensive backs are concerned cleland. Feral don't get me started there. But you do bring in a number of guys yawning gakugei. Hopefully he can help to passers. Casey hayward might have been one of the more unheralded off season signings at two and a half million dollars a year. A guy that. I think both of us high on for what we'd seen in for all the criticism about alex leatherwood being reached the first round. Maybe the raiders were able to write to ship a little bit taking trevon out. Tcu in the second round with some good roi. Potentially there but raiders defensively pain. They're not even going to be average. Can they get inside the top twenty five. This season for points per game point a blind squirrel. Finding a nut is a very good analogy for what transpired this weekend. By the way we can get into that at the end and then you can take your shot's no no it's fine. No hey defense for the rangers. This is our running running. I'm gonna let you take your shot at the end so you're gonna lose your opportunity but you can take the shots at the end. If you're if you so choose that was it. It was an inside joke that no one needed to know by. May i may share that info with sharon. Today you're sharing today. Sharing is caring. Twenty twenty one. So gus bradley. You know reunites with gruden. They spent the last few years of green stint and tampa together. I believe gus was the linebackers coach towards the end. There in two thousand six seven and eight before gruden got shit canned. You're looking at gus bradley's history here and to me it's not great. He was obviously credited. With devising the the cover three defense that seattle used all those years. And i think we've hit on that and how it doesn't really work unless you have an elite secondary that multiple and when you have the legion of boom great bought that talent level isn't commonplace for ninety nine point nine. Nine percent of secondaries both past and present and seattle didn't actually win a super bowl until after gus bradley left and then we saw bradley. Get hired in jacksonville. As the head coach he was there for four years from two thousand thirteen to two thousand. Sixteen his defenses finished. Thirtieth twenty-first twenty fifth and fifteenth and efficiency. The year after bradley got fired jackson. Shot the second and defensive efficiency and the following years when jaguars made the afc championship and then he gets a job with the chargers as their dc in two thousand seventeen and he inherited a unit that finished top ten inefficiency the year before he got there and he did a good job maintaining that level the next two years under his watch. Top ten and defensive efficiency believe tenth both years year one and year two then there was this massive drop off just fell off a cliff twenty fifth and defensive efficiency year three and twentieth in year four with the chargers defense. And obviously let go again. Now i do think there's likely year one boost here front for her. Gus in the raiders. Defense and it's not really hard to improve a unit that was twenty eighth in overall efficiency. Twenty six than early down defense. Twenty ninth in red zone defense. And they allowed a third down conversion rate. Eleven percent over expectation. Which is the worst in the lake. Sometimes a new voice is all it takes to improve horrific defense and make them below average. Todd now you start to get into some of the the players. It's you know. The raiders basically overspent on gok way to play the same position. They overspent thumb last off. Season carlin sleep and maybe one of those guys can generate a pass rush clown. Feral in year three has to improve as a pressure. Guy finished forty ninth in. Prp among qualifying edge rushers. That's basically a metric that factors in sacks hits hurries relative to how many times he rush the passer now for a regime. That stinks kind of piecing talent together and doesn't understand the word value when it comes to what they pay players are where they select players in the draft. I really do like the quinton. Jefferson signing at three and a half million finish top ten in pass west run rate among interior. Linemen back to back. Seasons you get salman thomas cheap. Because he's coming off the acl tear. I know casey hayward turns thirty two in. He's coming off his worse season as a pro but for two and a half million at premium position like corner. I think it's well we're taking a flyer to see if a word can return to his two thousand nineteen former graded up the fifth. Best corner among qualifiers only allowed fifty six percent targets to be caught. So i think that's interesting. You did see some growth from trayvon mullin in year two which is a good sign. Damon are net cannot play any worse than last year. He finished a hundred and thirty fifth out of one hundred and forty eight corners and adjusted yards allowed per covered snap. He was dealing with a hand injury. Dealt with a weird off season as a rookie. Even if he's bad. It's an upgrade. The other easy fix here is learn how to tackle right like be like stick somebody. The raiders were dead last allowing opponents to break. A hundred and forty nine tackles last season. Just learn how to tackle. And i think you improve defensively but really why. I think there's going to be some defensive improvement. Here is the schedule last year. The raiders played a top ten schedule of offenses. A top five schedule of passing a top five schedule of third-down offenses that all changes this season. We're projecting a bottom ten schedule of offenses passing offenses red zone offense and third down offense as todd. So i i do see a boost in defense of production here just from some of the names brought in a new voice and there is some. There is some talented pieces here. Hey let's see what the raiders can do. I mean this city would love a winner and they'll get behind him. I'm very curious what the atmosphere is like when they play their first ever home game regular season home game. That is with the legion stadium packed to the brim. That monday night against the baltimore ravens so be very interesting in terms of trying to monitor where they can't get lucky right. What sayings out you get. Lucky there for the raiders. Dob allowed bateman. Probably out. i mean you're getting baltimore's offense at rock-bottom let let's not sugarcoat it by any stretch of the imagination. Will it be enough for the raiders to get the win. Well that remains to be seen as they sit as four four and a half point dogs right now with that game. But for a raiders team. That may be trying to figure out exactly what they're gonna do going forward the quarterback position to a team. That's very much settled there with question marks everywhere else on the roster that would be the los angeles chargers arguably the most talked about team in this division not in the kansas city chiefs. They're priced at plus four ninety to win the division their win total sits at nine and a half. You do have to lay a buck thirty five to go under it. Fan duel sportsbook brands daily steps in replace anthony lynn. We make will get to your grade of that. Hire a minute but this is still a head coach. That five years ago was an assistant coach at john. Carroll not exactly alabama miami or anywhere else. We're all about taking large swings. Though when we talked about the rams you highlighted the fact that they didn't exactly play the most daunting schedule of opposing offenses. When you look at the chargers overall back to back losing records after compile a twelve and four record back in two thousand eighteen. They did close last season on fire winning their final four games. Twelve of sixteen games. They played a season ago. Decided by just one score and when you look at the chargers not coincidence that they've lost thirty one games by eight points or fewer over the last five seasons they will continue to chase after their first division title since two thousand nine and the reason for optimism of course starts at the quarterback position. We're just in. Herbert will enter his sophomore campaign. Optimism and hype are probably the two best describing words for the chargers right now and it kind of feels like an annual tradition and maybe this year i it comes to fruition brand new head coach brand new. Oh and joe lombardi. I think the hope is that those two guys along with justin. Herbert helped turn around some of the horrific coaching which led to horrible one. Score game results. I mean sixteen losses. The past two seasons by one score. A lot of that is coaching. Now there is some some poor luck sprinkled in there. Because you've had some bad injury luck you've had some bad turnover. Luck had bad field goal. Look i think that part of of the chargers improves joe. Lombardi is interesting as he's actually the nephew of vince. Lombardi and i think just about any coaches and upgrade over anthony lynn and we we know lombardi has some nice lineage. Not just the name. But he's not in this league for two years before both were in detroit. And in two thousand fifteen lombardi's final season he led the thirteenth most efficient offense. He had to one thousand yard receivers that year. He's also spent the last five years. Working under sean payton whose you know brilliant offensive line so i think there's going to be a boost to the chargers offense schematically and then if justin herbert can give you that year to bump. That we've seen from other quarterbacks like watson or mahomes even winston goff had some year to leaves than anything. The chargers have jane smith playoffs and we know her broke. Just about every rookie record completions touchdowns you just look at them. Obviously the size the mobility the arm strength. I think all kinds of lead us to believe that he's going to be a franchise type quarterback and maybe like the next young it guy and you love to see some of the underlying metrics digging into this. I mean herbert was electric last year. In situations where you wouldn't expect a rookie thrown in the fire to be really good. But he was also on third downs in terms of efficiency. Only brady rodgers. Mahomes josh allen and car were better on third down. He was an animal under pressure. So it kind of shows. This young kid was able to handle adversity and he delivered the fourth best efficiency. When pressured ninety nine passer rating seventy one percent adjusted completion percentage. Seven point six yards per. Pass attempt thirteen touchdowns two picks all under pressure. So that was awesome. What you also love to see from some of the underlying metrics is even though justin. Herbert is extremely mobile. He didn't really cheat the pocket and dump out early like we see. From a lot of quarterbacks he showed a willingness despite a poor offensive line that adam pressured on thirty seven percent of dropbox to kind of hang in the pocket and deliver from there his passing efficiency on throws made from within the pocket. It was six best among qualifying quarterbacks. Now that kind of leads me to. I don't wanna be negative here but you do wonder how much herbert can improve. Because you're going from a really good quarterback and you're one to like does improve like incrementally what is that even look like. I know there's probably going to be a lot of variants in some of those metrics. Right like when you're great on third downs you're great on fourth down degrade under pressure. Those are all typically areas that can regress. You're basically relying on joe lombardi to be dramatically better in scheme in play calling which can happen to help an offense that was twenty fourth in early down success rate under herbert. You know you need herbert to be better and make that year to leap. In situations that he'll probably be in most often which is throwing from clean pockets whereas passer rating was ninety. Seven in his overall efficiency was just about league average when he was kept clean so that was something that was a little concerning to me. And you know with this offensive line. I think you probably see a boost in herbert throwing from clean pockets. And that's probably a good area to address a little bit here for five new projected starters. They went out and spent on the best center in football on corey. Linzie it's possible. Rashawn slater's the next first round all world tackle that we see play for over a decade. He strong he runs like a tight. End is great and pass protection and get to the second level with ease in the run game brian. baga he's old but only played ten games last season. Let's see if he can stay healthy. Matt filer comes over from the steelers play left guard. He's been a plus left guard every single season of his career. He's better as a pass. Protector than run blocker. Right guard is a question. Mark with o'day there you know that's that's the question with the line is if blogging can't stay healthy and you have o'day there at at right guard then you'll probably have some issues on the right side but i think we're talking about you. Know chargers align that was thirty first in block win rate last year. Twenty nine then lying yards yards. This could be probably one of the most improved units in the nfl. You sprinkle in jared cook who is a fringe top. Ten tight end. I would say he was last year in yards per outrun news number two in eight dot among qualifying tight ends cooks. Has some nice versatility where you can kind of you know. Line him up inside in the slot or outside can do both those things. The schedule isn't really daunting. Either projecting a bottom five schedule of defenses. The easiest schedule of run defenses a below average schedule of past defenses. Third down defense in red zone. Defenses so in my mind. I'm thinking upgrade in scheming playcalling. Probably a tiny boost in cuba play huge upgrade. Eto line in a very manageable schedule of defenses. It's possible if all those things come to. Fruition todd the chargers kind of surge into that like four to eight range and overall efficiency when when the dust settles on the season. Can i play devil's advocate on one point some of these things when you look at the chargers and i'm sure over the course of seventeen games. Everything will be just fine. Are you surprised that they didn't play their entire. Starting offense at least for a series in preseason games. I know a lot of people out. There will look at the injury to j. k. Dobbins look at some of these other teams have gone through. And i know the emphasis has been placed on more of those you controlled practice environments but for me. It's still not a game situation when you talk about the offensive line and continuity familiarity a new scheme a quarterback that hasn't worked with these guys. I always feel like it's important to get some live reps in that game situation. Especially knowing who their week one opponent is facing arguably the best defensive line and all of football going across the country. I certainly think that's a question when you're talking about new head coach new. Oc a young quarterback learning a new system. But you gotta remember where brandon staley comes from. Right it's a good point. I mentioned i kind of mentioned when we did the. Nfc west podcast last week about this hiring process that mcveigh had with brennan. Staley last journey basically picked him up from the airport at four. Am in that meeting lasted twelve hours. And it's just too young innovative guys that hit it off and love each other and so he's seen what mcveigh's done for the last couple of seasons not playing any guys coming out like a house on fire offensively like the rams did last year so i'm sure that is what he is thinking about is also in year one. And you don't wanna get your franchise quarterback killed now. I also backup quarterback betting my starting quarter one hundred bucks and crypto tech field goals pull a joiner daniel sneaky sneaky guy looking for live reps out there. He saw austin stick kind of leading the charge for. Qb to and he's like well. How am i gonna make this roster. Maybe maybe if. I can get herbert to have an early season. Hamstring injury launching fifty yard field goals. That's that's going to be the way. I just wanna know honestly and i think about the movie war dogs that comes to mind where the to i mean Where they share. Jonah hill's character and i'm forgetting the other that's going to drive me nuts. They share an office. Do you think sean. Mcvay and brandon staley sharing stadium. We need to share an office and we need to keep the same office hours so we can compare notes because we're not in the same conference and at least continue to build that camaraderie between the two of us staying in one another's backyard. How dare you forget. Aaron rodgers running-mate miles teller teller. That's what it is there you go. I'm also a big fan of annandale armistice when she says pilose in that movie i think i fell in love and i believe my my ben affleck has at. Some point was was mingling with her. Which is he was in gambling news today. So there's lots of seven degrees of separation with kevin bacon going on here. There is a ton of interconnectedness in our sports betting community. That is for sure as you mentioned. Ben affleck being announced to headline a marketing campaign. We'll see how that particular campaign goes but differ discussion for a different day. We haven't addressed the chargers on the defensive side of the ball. This is a team. That loses some veterans in the form of casey hayward denzel perryman. Melvin ingram sean jenkins. I don't really think there's anybody that creates sleepless nights there knowing that you go out and you draft asante samuel junior to help fortify the secondary but more importantly the biggest addition will be hopefully be a healthy return of one of your beloved florida state. Seminoles enduro james who has missed twenty seven of a possible thirty two games but when he was out there first rookie season he was dynamic as anybody. And this is the chargers. Defense that allow twenty six point six points per game the most by the franchise since two thousand three they allowed a full touchdown or less though during their four game win streak to close things out problem for the chargers. Defense lately has been they just don't create takeaways. They have to be better in that particular department but when you look at the chargers on this side of the ball do they have stop unit. That's going to provide healthy complement to an offense with high ceiling. This is obviously the part of the team that everyone just assumes gonna be elite a higher brandon stale staley's kind of the the it defensive mind that's innovative and churned out. The fourth most efficient defense last year and it was a balanced defense top foreign efficiency against the run and pass and we saw the rams as those players kind of got familiar with the new system. They improve down the while. They waited out as the most efficient defense over the final sector of the season. And you do kind of have comparable talent in the sense that you know the chargers and rams have an elite presence along the defensive line in joey bosa and you have this elite versatile athlete in the secondary endure when james. And you're kind of making those comparisons to some of the guys. The rams have but i have questions and i'm kind of at that. Need to see it to believe it kind of thing. i know. Brennan staley's innovative. But nobody knows if he can lead the team and you mentioned. Some of his past ops outside linebackers coach two seasons ago. Nobody knows if staley is going to be willing to do things that are best for the team and not just as defense. That's something we talk about the time can we. Can we find a way when you talk about rapid career sense pain like a five year timeline for you and take you from podcast analyst extraordinary head coach of a national football league team. Do you think we can create that. Pathway i'm not even in the space. I wholeheartedly believe that i just decided to fly to vegas. Pitchy podcast and here we are. I'm i don't even consider myself in this space. So when i look at it staling. You're trying to like project ahead some of these things and it's we know these defensive-minded guys kind of are always like what makes my defense look best in. Maybe not what is best for the team. And you know you're gonna have these situations where it's like on fourth to from the opponents forty seven is staley gonna go for it because that's what's best for the team or is he going to punt because as his best for his defense. Nobody knows that. And you know we've kind of seen this even in the preseason like robert salah awesome really great guy. Preseason game against the packers. it's like. Hey we're gonna attempt a fifty five yard field goal outdoors instead of gopher and plus territory on fourth into we're gonna punt in a preseason game when we're trying to get zach wilson reps on fourth in an inch from midfield it's like it's all about events right so nobody truly knows what brennan stale is going to do in some of these situations. We don't know of opposing offenses are going to adapt to what's daily showed defensively for one season right when we broke down the rams defense last thursday we told you what brands daily defense faced. It was a shit sandwich at quarterback. I mean alex. Smith in wentz daniel jones and foles and kyle and nick mullins. How dare you. How dare you question the pedigree of that quarterback list. You just rattled off. I mean you still have sam darnold. it's it's too in his first career star and then we even kind of identified some of the positive situations on when the rams offense actually faced good. Or i'm sorry the when the rams defense faced good offense is on their schedule. It was at really poor times. I mean both seattle games that was after pete carroll basically just stripped the offense you had tampa before the bye week when motion and action. Rents were super low. And then you had kyle cuyler murray shoulder injury and the they face those. They faced the cardinals offense both after that injury. So i don't really. I don't really know what he did last year. In terms of. Like if this is sustainable. Now when you look at some of the jimmy's joe's past boatswain derwin james and you kind of mentioned even those guys have questions. I mean darwin's played five games. The last two seasons two of the last three seasons boasts started ten or less games now. What's what's past those two. You mentioned asante samuel. He's going to have to be a day. One impact starter to replace. Casey hayward kenneth murray has to make a year to leap. The talent for him is is off. The charges physical freak. He was twelfth among linebackers and tackles before the first down marker but he couldn't spell coverage he was targeted fifty two times last year gave up an eighty seven percent catch rate murray hill out a one thirteen passer rating coverage who's also the fourth worst linebacker in yards allowed per target in coverage among fifty. Nine qualifiers so hopefully the game slows down for him in year. Two with a full offseason. Chris harris junior probably should be chomping at the bit to plan. Brennan's staley's defense has a slot corner when you see the success. Slot corners have had with brandon staley and his mentor vic fangio harris thirty two but if he can return to two thousand eighteen forms only the chargers secondary doesn't have as many questions but aside from like boasts endure win and asante and murray and chris harris and maybe even lindahl joseph. You wonder where the rest of the help comes from year. Adderley hasn't proven to be an nfl starter. He wasn't good coverage last season. He had a nineteen percent. Ms tackle rate who's going to provide pass rush l. After bosa the word is no oh soo is projected starter opposite bosa. The only played thirty. Four percents naps last season. Let's see when his role gets expanded if he can keep up similar pressure rate. Michael davis as starting corner in this league scares me jerry tillery through two seasons. He's been a flat out bossed. Let's see if you're three. Different voice was staley. Maybe that gets him close to playing like a first round. Pick if the chargers are going to improve this year. It's going to be because their health. It's going to be because a couple of guys have bounced back years. It's going to be because you know brands. Daily proves that he is a whiz kid. Defensively and all of the people that believe in him margaret abi right. And you've got a couple of those three things with the schedule of opposing offenses that projects to be bottom five overall and against the pass. And if you can get those three things plus the poor schedule than i think. The chargers defense is inevitably going to improve here. This is the closest. I've been to a win. Total that. I haven't pull the trigger on all of this buzz. This momentum the energy and optimism around the chargers with somehow we're gonna push this thing to ten obviously didn't get there at nine and a half sheet under. I'm not quite sure. I'm gonna get myself to the window. But it's a team that. I clearly wanna watch. And i think there's gonna be some opportunity whether to bet on or against week to week and you highlighting some of those defensive issues if the offense continues to trend up. We'll make things interesting to see how they're priced accordingly. So i will say you're getting nine and a half now because the wise guys favorite team was hit and we saw chargers over nine money come into the market. It's very sharp and it feels like every time this year right around this time over the summer. All the wise guys are really high. On the chargers just hasn't come to fruition yet but you would be bucking some some very sharp money if you're looking to go under here it's why it's out to nine and a half now for sure and there's a lot of things i am asshole being one of them stubborn typically something that i try not to your to in this particular space for those folks that have more clout more dollars and more intel than i do. Perfect time to remind all of you. Our loyal listeners to follow on twitter at paine insider. I'm todd firm and you of course can follow me there as well. Most importantly follow the podcast at the board pod. All of the information you'll need to enter the bet. The board football available there follow the rules. Go ahead and sign up. We're inching ever so close to the two thousand mark. Wanna get to even double. That's tell your friends tell your family get everybody involved. It's our way of saying thank you for all the contributions you guys have made to the podcast over the years and can give back allowing you to match wits against one another vying for a season-long prize were weekly. Swag you wear with pride. No matter what fan do a sportsbook you choose to frequent during the course of the football season and pain. This is the point the show and it is the final preseason preview where we talk best bats and potential investments. That may not be out there. We've produced more than to be quite honest. I thought we were going to have going into the season. But i like the portfolio. We've been able to build for our listeners. Is there any others that you see that are worth at dabble before we get to talk about regular season games and those weekly investments more so than something that may take three to four months to try and pay dividends. let's go with a player. Prop the first one that we have given out. There was some things that i needed to see gets settled and ultimately that came to for wish in this week with the trade of gardner men shoe to the eagles. And based upon how urban meyer's offense is operated. Based upon how. Trevor lawrence has operated the clemson offense his legs. I would think are going to be a vital part to this offense. Let's go with his player. Prop over three and a half rushing touchdowns it's plus a dollar twenty five. I think also when you see. Ntn go down. We're going to need to see more from trevor lawrence's legs as a rookie. He will probably rely on those a little bit more than he should past the design stuff so i really liked that prop Trevor lawrence over three and a half rushing touchdowns plus twenty five especially behind that offensive line. He may be running for his life amongst other things but we do trust this offense scheme things up especially when they get in tight to try and take advantage of that skill set. Want to thank everybody. Who's been with us through the early portion of the season we know it is a labor of love beginning in early july. Encourage you guys again to go back and listen to the five power. five college. Football conference previews try and listen to those spat. Some numbers may be available. But i think a lot of those may be cooked but the information still perfect way to get you ready for the season. all eight. Divisional previews also was remiss earlier in the show wanted to announce the addition of a guest columnist. Who's going to be joining us for college. Football season support source analytics. You can read his debut article about coaches against the spread trends and some of the thought process. That goes behind that. We're going to try and take the discussion even further every week during college. Football season as we said a great opportunity to continue expanding this product. Line the content we create so any feedback. You guys can offer up is always welcome as we cater things accordingly. So pain college football week one on wednesday. You getting excited buddy amped for wednesday forty eight hours away. We will be back with week. One college football sound like faint enthusiasm but we'll take it nonetheless encourage. Everyone like always go. Fan duel dot com backslash. Bet the board great sign up. Bonuses in states where applicable arizona sports betting of the legal variety will be arriving for you just in time for football season and fan duel wants to be your preferred book. So please go there. Use our code and put yourself in a good spot to have the most profitable. Football season in recent memory for pain insider taught furman with a trevor lawrence over three and a half touchdown ticket in your pocket. We'll see you at the window. Thanks for listening to bet the board. You can catch todd and pain every monday. Wednesday and thursday during football season. Breaking down the biggest. Nfl band college football games and to make sure you don't miss penny free. Best bets. Subscribe to bet the board on itunes. Google play spotify or wherever. You listen to podcasts.