Iowhaaaaat?!

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The film is a New New York Times critic's pick that. They hailed as mesmerizing and tender. The disappearance of my mother is available on all major digital platforms including breaker dot IL. Can you explain Zack. Each inbox. We were all sitting here in the newsroom last night expecting some results from Iowa was that our first mistake. I think we're being pretty reasonable last night when we were all yelling at the television in some cases quite literally cough cough negotiates cough cough. We had expected results at that point reasonably based on every prior Iowa Caucus. Right right you don't normally take until well into the next day to count and at the time we're taping this we I still don't have a result and this is like Tuesday afternoon. Yeah so like by all precedent. This makes no sense so what went wrong last night when it comes to the actual source of the errors. It's actually not fully clear. What went wrong so I will give you two theories one of which seems obviously true but disputed by the Iowa Democratic Party and the other one is with the Iowa? Democratic Party's official line is but we're not sure if it's true so the disputed version is that there was a problem with the APP itself basic functionality. The APP is a new thing. The Iowa Democratic Party was using to calculate and send in results and it was developed by this firm called and I am not making this stop it called shadow perfect And nobody had heard of it before in major public life but is very new APP. Development started around two months ago and and there are lots of reports from people on the ground in Iowa including precinct captains. Who are in charge of doing this reporting that? They couldn't download the APP that they couldn't get it to work. Couldn't get it open can get to send results. The backup plan was to just call in the results. Manually Sean Sebastian's joining us right now. From Story County is a precinct secretary out there. What can you tell us about this delay in getting any results show wolf? I have been on hold for over an hour with the Iowa. The Democratic Party The captain got held up for an hour on hold and then he was talking to CNN when he got off hold and when he tried to switch they hung up on empire. What are you hearing? I know you're listening to conversation from the Iowa Democratic Party. This is a real coincidence. Incidence Wolf I just got off hold just now so I've got to get off the phone to report the results. Go ahead report. Can we listened in as your report. Them Sean Yup. Yep Okay Hi Hello. They hung up on me. They hung up on me okay. The Democratic Party says that the APPS basic functionality was not the problem they say the problem is that some combination of the APP and the precinct captains themselves were not doing the calculation of the final vote tally correctly. And this is a little bit complicated right so so there were some rule changes that were kind of confusing people last night. What exactly changed? Basically the Iowa Democratic Party for the first time said they'd be sending out three different results of the caucus and releasing them publicly. The first one is is the first alignment sort of where people were standing who they wanted to vote for it I in the little physical caucus room. Okay second result is the second alignment which is what happens after people get to choose based on who got eliminated the first time around. Because they're coming into their conversing so their their minds are going to change right. Okay and they're also can get eliminated inbetween alignments. If they didn't in their area get get over fifteen percent. Okay so if I went into caucus for Joe Biden Biden only got thirteen percent. Then I would be free to go pick. I don't know whoever else I wanted Ed. So that was the second thing. But then there's the third and I think most important result which is the delegate hall And there's a formula that converts verts in different precincts. The second alignment into this Delegate Count How many delegates you get from winning this particular area. This is all math. Laugh yes it's all. It's all math. Big Cuba Yang hat according to the Democratic Party there were some weird discrepancies in these three. The numbers they just weren't matching up in the way they were supposed to okay and so they some statement suggested that this was user error. Some statements suggested that this was like a problem with the APPs tabulation. It's still Kinda Paik. Okay two theories one. The new APP was crap. The Iowa Democratic Party certainly isn't co-signing that theory too that I will like people couldn't handle the new rules correct but either way the combination. The APP and the rule changes really spell disaster here. Did anyone see this coming. There were reports coming up in the weeks and day before saying that the APP was experiencing some problems but a lot of them were focused on cybersecurity that the APP was not well vetted or tested by cybersecurity security experts and that they're vulnerable to a hack okay but nobody had any idea that it would be this bad also. Nobody had any idea That their backup plan of these phone lines would be so broken. You'd think it would be really easy to just call and be like hey in my precinct here are the three different numbers like a good good back-up plan. Yeah but for whatever reason I would democratic party completely screwed it up and the calls weren't coming ineffectively and so in the absence of an effective APP and effective backup system. We just have complete chaos. Why we're all these changes implemented in the first place? Did something go so badly wrong long in two thousand sixteen that they needed an APP plus a bunch of rule changes not so badly wrong with there've been longstanding complaints about inefficiency in an unfairness of the caucus is for a lot of reason and last time around the sanders campaign in particular was unhappy with the way that the process treated them and they had long been arguing that the process us was was sort of unfairly stacked in Hillary Clinton's favor and so these transparency efforts. I think we're in part a response to that critique. So what is the latest from the Iowa Democratic Party. Everyone thinks the Iowa Democratic Party screwed up royally except according to their own press statements. The Iowa Democratic Party Classic this is from the Democratic Party. Communications Director Mandy McCloy already. This is our first official explanation from the reading. The integrity of the the results is paramount. We have experienced a delay in results due to quality checks and the fact that the Democratic Party is reporting three data sets. It's for the first time what we know right now. Is that around twenty five percent of precincts have reported and early data indicates turn out is on pace for twenty twenty sixteen. Where did this mess leave the candidates in this race? It left the candidates trying to spin whatever happened in their favor based on the preliminary results of their campaign has been able to tabulate and they've been able to get access to and so what you've got. Is Buddha judge declaring victory. We know by the time it's all said None Iowa you have shock in the nation you have the Biden campaign saying that this was an absurd outcome because it seemed like they did relatively poorly credit forties. He's working and get this results getting string. And I WANNA make sure they're very carefully deliberations you have the Sanders Campaign Billing this as going well for them but not being as definitive. Have a good feeling. We're going to be doing very very well and the Warren campaign taking more neutral line is tell cost to call so. I'm just going to tell you what I do. Know you are the Horn a minute Zach unto they explained There's really no middle ground. When it comes to flowers on Valentine's Day either the bouquet ordered? I Lucky Valentine is great with large vibrant roses. or it's just don't get stuck with man this Valentine's Day trust the experts at one eight hundred flowers dot com. They're affordable rose bouquets. Have the biggest and brightest flowers. You'll find anywhere and right now. They've got an amazing deal. Going on you can get there. Eighteen stem enchanted rose medley for just twenty nine ninety nine. And if you really WANNA throw down for just twenty dollars more. They'll double the roses. Don't miss out get your order. In February fifth to get that eighteen stem enchanted rose madly for just twenty nine ninety nine or pay the extra twenty dollars to double the Rosa's go to one eight hundred flowers dot com click the radio icon and enter Code Romance. Pick your delivery date and one eight hundred flowers will handle the rest quarter today and save at one eight hundred flowers dot com code romance. This podcast is brought to you by the new award. Winning documentary honoree the disappearance of my mother from Italian director. Benjamin O body say a portrait of the filmmakers mother Benedetta Zini a rebellious sixties fashion model. Who became matt dedicated activists feminist scholar who challenged the male gaze of the fashion industry? The film is a New York Times critic's pick that they hailed as mesmerizing and and tender the disappearance of my mother is available on all major digital platforms including breaker dot. Co Hello Pete was the only candidate to really come out and declare victory last night but everyone was trying to sort of spin the results in their favor. Who did this delay in Iowa really benefit? And who did it really hurt. We've been talking about the four leading candidates Right Buddha Judge Biden Warren Sanders I o all of a significant. All of them it was. I would say most significant to Buddha judge who really invested in the state and had not been doing well in the not especially white states aides later down the calendar and needed to do well in the state was demographically very favourable for him so it really mattered for him and unsurprisingly he was the one who came out and declared A. Ah shocker there Sanders also wants to win early because he needs to develop a sense of momentum to fully displace Biden because like Buddha judge. He's not doing as well in Nevada and South Carolina as he has in New Hampshire and Iowa. The two earlier states wore needed a strong showing to show she has an out of it and for Biden. It was the least important because he's been doing well in these later states but a really really bad showing crater his support which people have been warning has been soft the whole time. It has not seemed true. Because he's been leading the polls for so long but if he really cratered in Iowa. It's possible this could become a self-fulfilling l.. Fulfilling prophecy so those are the four people. It's all important to them to varying degrees and now everyone's off to the next one. Their fight right. Now is New Hampshire and New Hampshire. Now is much more important than it was previously. which kinda crazy thing to say because it was already very important? Iowa matters a lot not because of its delegate count which is pretty low but because of its role in setting media and donor expectations. If you do well in Leioa you can sort of start bandwagon and people get to support you and other places because you look plausible likewise you get a lot of favorable media coverage which gets you more attention more donors owners Cetera but in the absence of declared results in Iowa. Nobody's getting these benefits. Nobody's getting this narrative momentum that they wanted to get the night of and plus we have a bunch of news this week coming up including The state of the Union Democratic debate which could end up overshadowing feeling. We're at least somewhat displacing. The Iowa results which means the New Hampshire campaign will kind of become the first meaningful media narrative primary. Not entirely again. 'cause I will result will come out at one point and those will matter. The delay has has sort of screwed up the timeframe that the media needed. He did and that candidates needed to take advantage of whatever happened in Iowa. Is there any chance of something like what happened in Iowa could happen in New Hampshire. Did they just change you. Bunch rules and introduce a funky APP. Not that I'm aware of And it's a primary not a caucus so it's relatively straightforward. It's standard electoral counting. Right people vote and then the vote tallies go in and then that determines who gets what is anyone going to trust. Trust Iowa to lead the pack. I mean we talked to our colleague Lezo on the show on Monday about how there's already this momentum behind changing the primary reprocess not letting Iowa go first because it's not really representative of the rest of the country now that everyone saw them flipping coins and punting the results and having this APP APPs. SNAFU is it all but sure that I was going to be reexamined as the leader of this process. I think the party would be Just totally irresponsible. If they didn't right there were always good reasons to move Iowa out of the slot. It's absurd that a state that has such a white electorate in the Democratic Party which is incredibly incredibly diverse nationally. That you'd go first and Lee has good piece to that effect on. Vox Dot Com. But it's not just that the caucus system itself is Biased in predictable ways. So for example You have to show I don a Monday. What if you're a working parent who can't afford childcare? What if you're you're disabled? A lot of the facilities don't have good accessibility mechanisms. There are all sorts of reasons why this system is biased us towards a very small number of people but if Iowans are stubborn about this they should not have this much influence over the national political environments beyond. Just the you know obvious inconvenience to the candidates to the Democratic Party with these delays. I wonder just how bad this looks for our our democracy right now that the very first thing in this election got bungled. I mean especially recovering from an election where we have confirmed armed Russian interference in our presidential election. Yeah can't overstate how bad it is from that point of view. The the campaigns didn't help matters so the way that that elections work the democracy at a really basic level is that you have public faith in the process and that displeases any sense that your opponents one unfairly right in other countries where they don't have faith in their democratic process. You end up getting results contested and that often leads into actual conflict because people don't don't believe that the other side has a fair claim to leadership and they're willing to dispute that claim using force. I'm not suggesting we're close to that. In the United States. I'm just using that. To underline align the theory as to why the legitimacy of elections is so important and what happens in the worst case when he gets compromised and here we not only have the legitimacy obviously compromised An official statement and a Biden spokesperson have said that there are serious questions about what's going on and that there's reasons to be concerned about the Outcome Buddha judge declaring victory created some significant conspiracy theories online and so this idea that the APP is causing problems. uh-huh Buddha judges declaring victory when nobody knows what's happening but it looks like Bernie may have. Actually one has led a lot of burning people on twitter to say this is outrageous this APP rigged it and fever of Buddha judge of evidence for that but the fact that he is so aggressively setting expectations added a lot of fuel fuel to that fire The number one hashtag nationwide in the United States on twitter was mayor cheat and it illustrated how little faith there was after the results of last night among lots of people in the outcome. And that's the kind of body blow to the democratic legitimacy of an election. That's difficult to recover from because once that trust is lost it's difficult to gain back that sort of in the nature of of trust itself. Do we have the trust. The company called Shadow. That was very dumb just just very dumb on so many levels at least change the name before we make the APP together. Can you hire early light of day INC or like we're honest. I mean there's just so many other things they could have called it trustworthy. I don't know if you call it trustworthy. I feel like it has extreme. Lots of questions that are already answered by this t shirt vibes to it. Shadow had to be amongst the the worst neighbors house. Real bad. Just real bad. Is anyone going to trust these when they actually come out whenever that is Halloween thanksgiving You know yeah. Yeah when they're released on the eve of the next Olympics. I think people will have good reason to trust them. I I really don't think that there's a all conspiracy theories aside any reason to believe that the Iowa Democratic Party is is rigging this election in one way or another or that their incompetence will like irretrievably. Screw up the basic results. I think they'll be a very long paper trail trail that one can use to confirm that the Tallis end up being accurate. I think the issue is that people will will will not believe it. It's weird you have to hold these two ideas together in your hat the same time both at the process was totally mismanaged. And also no that the end result of it though it's delayed and though there were lots of regularities has really good reasons to be seen as trustworthy but we do need to hold both of those ideas in our head at the same time one thing seems sure to me that this probably helped donald trump more than anyone else. Oh Yeah. Trump campaign is loving us. Both of the president's this large adult sons Donald trump junior and eric have tweeted that the processes rigged his campaign manager. Brad parcel also suggested it was rigged first of all. They're trying to obviously stoke divisions inside the Democratic Party trump has done this before he thinks he can weaponize the team Bernie anti-establishment sentiment against the party itself off. I don't think Bernie fans really take trump seriously on this point but he's certainly trying to make these things worse seconds. You know the more infighting there is among Democrats rats. Even if trump isn't stoking it the better things are for the trump campaign and today they got their best Gallup result in some time if he was like a forty nine percent approval rating. Is there anything the Democrats can do in the coming weeks to sort of band together and support each other through this mess or is that unlikely. Considering that the competition's getting you know as as thick as it's been the best thing Democrats can. Do going through is a hold elections. They don't do this have fair. Transparent open non irregular processes and conventionally the Iowa staff will will be displaced by a narrative of an actual real campaign. But that's the best thing that they can do is make sure that everything's airtight. Your type in the upcoming states. Another screw up like this. I don't even want to speculate just happened. That could be ZAC. Beecham is a senior correspondent at Vox. He also so is one of the hosts of our worldly podcast. I'm Sean Rotherham. This is today explained

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