Nina Fefferman

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

You walk made it weird with me. Homesick happening where does this is a recommendation from our dear friend? Shane Moss? Who's recorded? I think four four of my favorite episodes of this podcast Shane has his own podcast. Which is called Here we are. You can learn more about that here. We are PODCAST DOT com. He interviews regularly The top scientists from all sorts of different fields and this is Nina Pfefferman. Who is a mathematical Wait I don't know how to say that. She studies mathematical models of pandemics. That's that she studies mathematical models of pandemics. So she is. One of the people currently working on The cove it nineteen pandemic. She's a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and professor of mathematics at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville. She's the associate director of the one health initiative and she is the director of Matt of the Mathematical Modeling Center. Well that was a lot. There's a lot for me to say I'M SO TIRED. Leila just went down So forgive me if I sound a little beat. I hope you guys are doing okay. By the way I was going to alternate do a pandemic episode over skype and then release something from the back catalogue but Honestly Shane called me. And we sort of commiserated. About how many people? Spring breakers aside but then included Seem to be uninformed or misinformed about what's going on and obviously this is very very important and he said that he had talked with. Nina and was like I think you're GonNa really love her and I did. I spoke to her today. It's only an hour. So this is not really a typical. You made it weird in the sense that it's short and we don't really talk about Art Or God. This is a science heavy and a fact heavy episode more of an interview obviously still a very special An important conversation that I was so happy to have so I do want to get to it as quickly as possible. No tour dates to plug. Obviously we are doing another best of you made it weird episode if you want to contribute You can either go on our facebook on the facebook page. The most recent post is asking for suggestions. For what you want included in the third you made it weird best of episode. I realize it's been a couple of years since we did one. I figured we could all use a laugh. Laugh right now so. Please vote for your favorite moments On our facebook page you can also tweet. At Katie Levine Some of the at me At Pete Holmes on twitter. I'm pretty sure Katya Katya money on twitter. I also WANNA give a shout out ticket. Java which honest to goodness has been my source of nutrition during all of this Haven't been making too many trips to the store trying to stay in as much as possible which is balanced which is actually been great. Yesterday was my birthday party. Why I'm tired. It was a wonderful birthday Believe it or not I keep having to say that to people. I'm like it was a perfect day. Vow woke me up with pancakes That she made with Lee and Crayon drives. It was adorable that Leela helped with and then she made a cake so I had pancakes and cake cake. Some kicked out and I loved it. It was so special and we just hung out and It was wonderful. I really do hope everybody listening is doing well in staying saying we. Sorta talk about that a little episode but the way that I'm getting nutrition does eating kinds of cake in one day is catava. That's straight up one hundred percent real. I plant based superfood nutrition in my life just to feel the level of healthy that I'm used to feeling that I am addicted to feeling that is a wonderful feeling and catava especially in a time. When I'm not going out is a wonderful superfood plant ally for everybody that I talked to his curious about how to eat more plant based I always hear them take a Java. It is a SUPERFOOD DRINK. Mix made with the most exotic nutrient rich superfoods that have been revered by tribal cultures for centuries it's one hundred percent plant based you get. Omega threes from Chia seed and flaxseed. There's eight super fruits in the bag. Seventeen Greens and veggies in the bag. Really hard and you know. Questionable SORTA get raw stuff. I love that. I know that Java is getting me the green and veggies that I need every morning gluten. Free Soy free. No artificial sweeteners or preservatives. Stage support built in a thousand milligrams of adapted built-in twenty four grams of protein. People are always asking where vegans get their protein. Booms RIGHT THERE. And it's in a liquid form so gets into your cells more quickly makes you feel full for hours. Makes you feel fantastic. Gives you nutrition high? A lot of people use it as a meal. Replacement is certainly good for is as close as I've come to a meal in a pill you can make it with one hand while I'm holding early in the morning just put in with water. Shake it up. It's got powdered coconut milk in there so becomes milky and chocolate and delicious or it can ask you can make it with something. Like almond milk and frozen. Strawberries tastes like chocolate strawberry ice cream. It's fantastic I'm living on it. I love it. I'm so grateful I have it. It's Catava K. A. C. H. A. dot com slash weird. We'll give you twenty percent off twenty percent off and you'll show your support of this podcast which I always appreciate all right guys. Enjoy my chat with Nina. Please vote for your favorite moments for the next Best DUB and next week. We will will really something from the back catalogue. But now while time is of the essence I wanted to get as much info as we can so thank you out there. So thank you to Shane for introducing me to her. And thank you to Nina for this wonderful chat. I hope you guys enjoy it. Get into it weird us. I have to imagine you are very tired. Thank you so much for doing this. I know thank you I appreciate. I think we're in a phase where no matter what I do is GonNa be useless if you'll get the word out to more people. So yeah yeah well. Hopefully this is an interesting intersection. I know you did Shane's podcasts so people that are scientifically minded Would find you but I think this might be a different cross section. This is this is A. I don't know that's what whenever I'm trying to get people to do the podcast. I'm like this might be an audience that you don't normally reach so I'm happy to have was. I'm very grateful. Certainly my my normal audiences academicians and ivory tower navel gazers so we do a Lotta navel-gazing so you're you're in good company. But I'm I'm I'm so happy that you're that you're doing it. I know that you're tired. You must be saying this over and over and over and over so at the at the very least usually this is very conversational. I thought we could do this. More like a traditional interview just to get the information out there Halloween thing I get. Just get you out of here. I don't usually the show is like two or three hours will only talk at most an hour And let's just get some of that stuff out there before you came on. Katie and I were expressing some of our fear that we both well. I don't WanNa bring you into this. Katie that's your business but my parents are sort of their seventy nine seventy six. I don't know we're not. We're not that kind of family. They're in their late seventies. And my dad is just sort of one of those people here in California. Everybody's locked down. We're we're we're taking it super seriously. I mean my wife and I are spraying the groceries and the takeout and all the things going real real real or and then. My Dad is like why? Why at Dunkin donuts like that? Why are you at Dunkin donuts? So can you please help us understand? How serious What would you say to my dad? Who is just a stubborn? I'm going to say there's there's a lot of high I'm GONNA say hyper not toxic butts hyper masculinity who cares. This is just a flu. They're just trying to scare us. It's a hoax. How would you respond to that Nina? And maybe a little bit about who you are and what you do sure. Sure so. I'll set the order just saying I'm Nina Pfefferman and I'm a mathematical model who studies pandemic preparedness The interactions between behavior and disease outbreaks of University of Tennessee. And I've done this for a bunch of different potential pandemics of the first one fails enough that it's actually a pandemic and we're all really sorry. So okay so what I would say to your your dad and all of all in my friends in that category so I think it's. It's really hard to acknowledge that things that are truly beyond our control are also threatening as Americans also. Were not used to that. We liked rugged individualism. We like being able to say. Well if I if it's dangerous I'm just GONNA put it out of my mind forged through and stoicism defines by character and my strength or you've met my dad that's my that's my dad. I need I would. Yeah there's there's an ability to that I I don't want to. I wouldn't tell anybody to get rid of that but what I would say is that there is a lot of room next to that stoicism to say that that seems to assume that had people plant victory gardens during world during world. Wars is was not responsible but it also was ruined. That said stewardess shouldn't ignore the fact that there's food scarcity right and you can be proudly sto again not panic but still take responsible actions given known risk but there is also a nobility in safeguarding and even reassuring. Even if you personally decide that mean affirmative I am full of Shit and you don't believe anything else that I say there are people you probably love who are scared for you and there is no nobility in getting a donut at the expense of the comfort of your loved ones. Yeah and that's just psychological security. If that's just reduction in the Zaidi your loved ones have for you. It is a noble and responsible thing. Even given a the conscience of a patriarch to give comfort to your loved ones that you are willing to sacrifice getting that doughnut right now. Your show some some strength in perceived weakness. It's a way to be strong. That might be not traditionally Norman Rockwell. Strong it's like stay home strong. Although I do think Norman Rockwell would make a hell of a painting at it as I'm not just saying Oh yeah I actually think we there is a story of Norman Rockwell. Strength in being the support of core of family. Even if you're if you if you look at really Norman Rockwell. Strength Comforts children having nightmares. And so even. If you believe that what we are all doing is having a collective illu story nightmare. I don't believe that that is not true right. We'll get to that. Let's get to that because I was trying to think. I texted my dad again. Let's not make it all about my dad. But I was like. Please practice social distancing. We're worrying about you. I was just trying to keep it simple because if you try and bring in like listen to this or we decided we were just worried about you. I'm worried about you. I'm worried about mom. Can you please do this? I'm trying to think I WANNA be like you think. You're smarter than Bill Gates. You know what I mean like. I need like the Einstein's he he might. He doesn't know Nina Federal. Msa Jefferson who Nina. Pfefferman is put us. But I'm trying to get that. Let's lay it out. What is going on here? What do people need to be doing? And why do people need to be doing okay? So what's what's going on is that we have an outbreak of a really infectious highly transmissible and quite deadly respiratory disease so yes the flu is also a respiratory disease that occasionally kills people. This is not that this is a disease. No one has immunity to nobody has has gotten it before. has partial unity outcome survivor This is a disease that at its worst for older people for people who have real medical conditions that compromise their their cardiac or lung function is killing one out of every six patients. Who Catch it. That's not an acceptable rate of loss for anything. That is definitely not the flu. So the the thing it has in common with the flu is it isn't infectious diseases of the respiratory system. That kind of like saying All cancer is equally dangerous right. It's all cancer so if you have you know a little skinned have removed in your doctor. Says don't worry about it again or instead. You have pancreatic cancer. That's kind of the same person broad rushing and being like cancer is fine. I had to have removed last week. No no this is different We are on a global pandemic. What that means is that there is active local transmission on multiple continents at the same time We don't have this under control. Globally there are particular regions that have under control at the moment. They are still in danger because the rest of us don't and that and people are still traveling back into those regions of China Right. Now did a really great job of shutting down its outbreak. It's having new cases imported from outside in China. We're going to continue that dynamic. There is no such thing at the moment. The world is a global place. There is no such thing as a nation or a city or a state or an island that can operate by itself. Right now we are now a glow facing a pandemic together as humans. And so doing this. Well is something we all need to do as humans and and we are trying the best we can with all of the techniques we have available and we we are working to develop an understanding of whether or not have medicines. That can help. We don't know yet. We have some ideas of what might help. And we're trying them to see but we don't know if they help. We have some supportive therapies. That can keep you alive. Even if you're getting sick including things like ventilators that help you breathe. Your lungs aren't strong enough to intake air on your own. We don't have enough of them. We won't have enough hospital beds and medical staff of for a lot of the world so a lot of what we're trying to do is keep enough people healthy for the time being that we can develop the tools to fight this better in the people who do catch up and put off is going to catch it so that people who have heart attacks and still need to get into emergency rooms can see cardiologists instead of have the door. Crowded through with people who can't breathe right. I've had so many friends or that means to that are having babies right now. It's just such a wild time to to remember at hospitals aren't just cove in nineteen centers places that we need every single day for the multitude of reasons. So what what does it look like? What should we be doing? I was just eating something from the fridge and I think one of the paranoia. Is that a valid. I have is like when we buy groceries. We watch video. That was like spray down. Your groceries disinfecting. Is that too far or are we doing? The right thing will also so the video is he's been a bunch of videos circulating and some of them are absolutely wrong. Not just kill about wrong and some of them are just kind of crazy and some of them are really good so the best information we have right now and it is all changing mealtime. Was We learn about viruses? What it's doing but the best of me right now for things like bringing in groceries bringing in delivery food things like that is washed the pat linked spray the packaging that is in or wash the packaging or transfer it to something else when you get there and then clean everything the packaging touched and wash your hands it. This is not a foodborne disease to the best of our understanding. We have some pretty good evidence. That food itself is not going to get you sick with this but it is true the touching things and then the virus into your respiratory system like your eyes rubbing your eyes touching your nose touching your face in a way that you lick your lips later. That's really how we think. The surfaces of contaminated injured bringing in your home would You're not going to bring those. You don't quit your face right up against plastic bagging brought in from the grocery store and trying to hail it But you're touching it and then you're probably touching surfaces in your home and touching your face without worrying in your own so we are advising that there's some processing you do. Is You bring anything in from outside of your home to ensure that all of the outside contamination of surface doesn't become a source where you keep touching it. And then touch your countertops touched it and end at your face because you're at home and you're not worrying so much about. I'm when I'm at home right now even though we should all be not touching her face when I'm at home and I haven't brought anything in recently. I'm not worrying about things like scratching my cheek. Where am I did? I rub my eyes and I shouldn't do it anyway but I'm going to forgot human So what we're trying to do when we say clean and process the things you bring in is keep the environment of your home relatively unlikely to be able to to spread the germs by contact. So that when you forget and Rub your eye in your home your home uncomfortable. There's no contaminated surface that you're accidentally transferred right and what about aging packages? What am I? Good Friends Kumail. Who Lives in my neighborhood? He's been tweeting a lot. And and we've been talking a lot and we sort of joke that I think we're both on the higher end of the carefulness. I have baby there. Sort of. That's their business but We age packages package comes in. We just leave it on our porch for two three days. That's something somebody told us to do again. They now. I'm in the dark. We don't know are we. Just being Californian like seems so like of course L. A. Would be like this is what we do. We're doing not all of La. But like and then my dad. I not the Boston is one of the Earth as well. But there's something I don't know if I'm just being a California cliche. Being so vigilant is adequate thing to do yes. Oh against some of this is information that we're getting in real time so it got best guesses right now. For how long the virus on surfaces our best guess right now is that it lives on cardboard. Which is what most package is arriving for about twenty four hours so I it's honestly though howling. It's obviously though if you there are things inside your baggage. Also that might have been touched when it was wrapped. We think that the virus lives on plastic for about seventy two hours of these. Your best guesses of the moment. So so it. If there's if you order something that is not incredibly important to have right now. Then there's no downside really to letting it just be for a while but there's also. I would argue very little downside if you take proper precautions of bringing it in. Where did I put yourself a processing space in your home? It's easy to disinfect. You can take a clorox wipe to or or wash with soap and water game easily So so a washroom is a great idea for this a laundry room. If you've got something that doesn't have a lot of clutter about something without charge case but like a good surface you you can open something up. Take the thing out. Remove all of the packaging if the thing itself is not packaged on and you're not removing packaging. Lysol is a great thing to spray over something But then throw out the packaging. Wash the surface washer hands. Go about your life. Here's the question I had for you. That Kumail and I were just yesterday saying we have no idea. So we've been on lockdown for awhile. I don't even know how long it's been. It's been whatever it's been. It's been as long as it's been for every like whoever the people two weeks. I really have no set time. Yeah so instructor. Yeah you say three or two almost three. We're over we're overdue for most of California at this point. Yeah okay so valley-sinai every morning when we wake up feeling well we count that as a wonderful thing and and even if we kind of go like Oh man it's another day of this or that or whatever we always take comfort and going like we're healthy and this is important for the family like I said we have a baby and that's not for us Then thou it was my birthday yesterday and she went to the store and thank you very much. It was actually a wonderful birthday and she. She had a mask and gloves and she got some cake. It was very sweet. She's making cakes and believe me. She did everything then. We're like she did go out again. I don't know this is like pizza anxieties. He's if he's being hyper vigilant and I want people to know what they should be doing. Do We then restart the counter? Do we go like we've been in quarantine for three weeks or do we go like well. Then Val went out. And I've not out to the girls. Do you start the class. Over re time you go on a walk and somebody jogs by you. And you're like dude. Why were you close to me? I don't understand okay so so really great question also so I think the first important thing to tell everybody is that there are two different things that we are trying to accomplish with social distancing and one that is yes personal isolation for the entirety of an incubation period. And that's the fourteen days that's the idea. That's what we think is a is really going to be about the longest between when you personally could be exposed to disease and when you could start to develop symptoms yourself and then there's again another fourteen days on that if you develop symptoms of after that we think your problem. And you're not if you're not dramatic anymore. We think after fourteen days. If you haven't been symptomatic seventy two hours you're no longer infectious. So those are two very personal clocks about this but social distancing is also not so much about your personal clock of of time since exposure and I would say it's a good way to drive yourself crazy to keep worrying about. What was the last time you were possibly infected? So that's I think that's that way madness lies. Don't don't do that. It's technically true but I don't think it's useful because you also can't affect anything for that that would be well. I've just dumb this thing that could expose me now. I have fourteen days to worry. But can't change anything retrofitted so so I would encourage people not to focus so much on those personal time clocks at exposure unless literally. What you're doing is waiting to come out of a household where someone had diagnose corona virus. So that's a really good thing to do because otherwise you are in. Danger actively transmitting grown of two other people. But if you are if you've all been healthy and you're just worried. Did I get it from going outside? I would say. Please don't focus on that you'll drive yourself crazy and there's no benefit. I'm happy as a bed. That's I think that's the game. We're all playing myself. I think the human brain. I don't know what it is. We like analyzing we like looking for patterns and it latches to things like this and I don't consider myself a very compulsive person in that regard but I've caught myself being like well if that had it and then there's a certain circling back to my dad. This is where some of that stoicism can be. Good and like look. I'm doing as good as I. Can that Napkin might have been on a thing like like over? My daughter will touch something on a walk and I just immediately picture. Someone infected sneezing on it. Or you get your brain is so stupid. I'll see somebody with a hat and I'm like I don't know about this guy with that hat. That looks like a guy who doesn't take this very seriously that the brain is stupid and it gets paranoid so. I'm very happy with your with your pedigree for lack of a better term. Say Will you please relax? Let's not get carried away control. You can control don't get paranoid Your guest yeah absolutely but there is also the flip side. So that's the personal side where we're I don't think that kind of counting and again. That's all about catching it. It is different if you have someone in the House who's had that's a whole different thing. Please do the personal counting. But then the flip side of this is what we're trying to accomplish with these social distancing shelter in place ordinances recommendations requests depending on where you live. What level of legality involved but but nationwide when we saved these shelter place while we're actually trying to do is not. I mean if we could have if we could tell everybody to stand six feet apart from each other in complete isolation not touch each other for two weeks. All outbreak would be done. Yeah I mean we. There would be a couple of sick. People still recovering. We'll be able to medically isolate them and care for them. We would be. We would be able to handle everything else that happened but that's not realistic thing that we could ever do. Families live together humans. Don't stand six feet apart from things. We kept practically do that. So we don't have an ideal world for that because also it to be global. It's impossible right. So what we're trying to do with these social distancing metrics in the real world these recommendations is actually not about your personal counter. It's about reducing the number of people each infected person is likely to infect next so if you think about Think about a a a cell dividing so so are And if you're not used to thinking about sows in biology just think about like a balloon that manages to split into two balloons and then each of those balloons listen to you. It has two balloons. Each of those listen to you and has to who has in very quickly you're going to be overrun with balloons right. Because I you have one menu to than you have four eight sixteen right in each time you get another one is going to be two and getting a minute. If you're old enough to remember star trek this triples right triples or on your space station any minute of so. It really startled me the Trivialized that not only by students never seen star Trek but culturally. They no longer knew what troubles are. Even I haven't seen that episode but I know the trouble with troubles little furry things that overwhelmed Kirk. I know that I'll see you really should. It's the campus of the University Cultural Literacy. We need to know what board is. We need to know who data as we need to know. What rebels are exactly? It's it's just how we would understand pandemics now. I agree seriously. We have these things that are literally splitting into As this example so this is not. How Corona virus itself replicates in the body but it is how diseases transmits right. I have a disease and I give it to you and then you give it to someone and if you give it each of us gives it to more than one person. The epidemic is growing at as though. We're splitting off like balloons. I realized the other day. This is a pyramid scheme. You realize virus impairments Ingram and I southbound to you I give you the tools to sell it to your grandma and and we all get rich but instead of getting rich people are getting sick and dying which ager and and and that is a beautiful analogy for that. That is exactly what this is. It's a pyramid scheme and so imagine lives. We've all been on shame letters. Write imagine that you get a chain letter that says do this thing and pass it along to people or instead you get a chain letter that says do this thing and pass it along to ten people if everybody is actually doing the thing and passing it along to the number of people it says in the email or it says a whoever the pass along to ten people is rapidly going to get everybody and it's GonNa be that's why it's more You know elderly. People are more susceptible to this because they love forwarding chain letter. I think that's what it is. My mom loves for me those things and that's why I'm actually worried about her. It's the same thing with your body worried about her. Okay so you were saying sorry. No but you're right. I mean in this case there are actually in the way that there are people who we all know like. Oh those people chain letters. We don't know why we have. Look there are people who are not social distancing. They're the people were forwarding. The chain letters your shelter in place orders that we've got is basically everyone saying. Try to send the chain letter. Everyone's going to send a chain letter. We don't have control over at our email is just gonNa send letters for us. Try and do what you can only send the letter to two people instead of ten and if we do that batskin drastically slow down. Who gets the chain letter at the same time so that it can be dealt with in a in a efficient way in a realistic way? So it can be dealt with here exactly excited. There are two things slowing down. Give us and they're both really important. And we've sort of touched on both of them but I'm going to save it again because they're so important slowing this down to so important. The first one is that that fewer people ever catch this at the same time. The less our healthcare system is over. Well and the more we can help people the more we can make sure that you survive being infected by this and the more we can make sure that people who don't have the survive infected cuts in heart attacks and cancer and childbirth and all of the other things that we want people to survive and especially in the developed world. We'd take medical care for granted so easily We we just say like. Oh well it's something goes wrong. I can just go see a doctor about that. And my two is not going to become an abscess that he's into my brain right. Nice thing that's right so so all of those nice things. We take for granted suddenly stopped being able to be taken for granted if we overwhelm. Healthcare and overwhelming healthcare is also not just during the peak of the. It's not the overwhelm healthcare for three weeks. It when those three weeks are over health care is on again. And we can all go that simply. When we've exceeded capacity but exceeding capacity is going to have a health toll on healthcare professionals. It's going to deplete our resources and supplies in support of that. This is not a case of. We exceed impassively for three days and so we have three days of trouble in. Go back to being okay. We're GONNA have an aftermath. The more the worst the excess is the longer the aftermath is gonNA take to recover our healthcare system and infrastructure. So anything that we can do to decrease how much we overwhelming healthcare system is good for all of us on that so slowing down decreases how much we exceed healthcare capacity and then also slowing down buys us time to figure out which medicines we already have my be effective people. Fight this off to develop a vaccine to figure out which supportive therapies are best given which pre-existing medical conditions if you go in and you're diabetic and have COPD as opposed to heart failure. Which things should people do to support you? Even if we don't have a cure for the disease that will help you live right now. We've got lots of parallel experiments being done in hospitals in mealtime amazing physicians and nurses who are making judgment calls based on their experience and expertise. But that is incredibly different from bone. Best Practices that come out of science. So we're doing those trials now to get the science to know what to advise doctors and nurses to do. We don't know yet. Fewer people get sick before we have answers. The more people might get sick later but when we have the answers to keep them alive and okay well I guess I. Everyone must be asking this and I don't I won't burden you with having the answer but I'm sure everyone's wondering how long will be doing this at 'cause you're saying you're only reinvigorating my commitment to doing this. Yeah that's and that's what I want to share with. The listeners is that this is something that we're doing not just to not get it ourselves. But we're doing something collective which is very sort of against the American mythology. Were sort of back to where we began about like. It's about me about capitalism. It's about my happy life. It's about my achievement and now we're being forced to think globally. That's actually when the the lovely things about it we've talked about is. It's really every meal. Every Uber driver every package we are interconnected species. And we've done our best especially in the West to really deny that and there is a silver lining to this. Of course I wanted to end and I don't want anyone to suffer. There's a silver lining that we're all sort of waking up to our inner connectivity. I don't think we'll ever be the same as an entertainer and you talk to Shane as well. We're like the next time we're in front of a crowd. It's just going to have this magic to it that I can't imagine when when do you think that'll be because valid? Were saying it's like it's like it's just going to go away. We have to be a year away from a vaccine. I've heard yet then like when are they going a bit like am? I going to have to make a choice at a certain point where it's like. Well we're in a gray area and you could do shows and I'm like I. I think I think it's going to be like the war is over. We won and we can all go out and the sailor kisses the girl in the street. But I don't is that going to happen or are we just GONNA be like well? It's kind of okay out there like what's what's next so on in the most realistic estimate of how would work what we will do is a gradual progress on many fronts so we will come up with some better recommendations for how drugs will help us. We will come up. With more ventilators we will have some. We'll have a cohort of doctors who have realistically a depressingly been infected but survived and are showing backup to work because they are heroes. We will develop the infrastructure to do better at handling the infection that we are likely. So you're right. There isn't going to be a moment of it's done. We're all back to being fine now even if we do develop a backseat in a vaccine will take at least here. It's more like a year and a half really because it takes time. Human bodies are themselves complicated. We have long term reactions to things. And we don't want to accidently inject something into someone that six months later is going to kill them That's not a good wide. That's not a good rollout plan. So the vaccine development takes a long time. And I've heard I personally have heard from a lot of my friends in the general public. The district chomping at the bit of all if if crossover so dangerous. Why don't we just all accept the risks and take a a trial vaccine now and the answer is because sometimes the history of medicine we have meant well but we have developed very dangerous. Backseat or medicines. That have ended up doing a lot more harm than good and so we don't let that happen. This is why we get to push back against the Anti Vaccine Movement. The answer is we have figured out how to keep vaccine safe ended in save trials to figure out when they are effective and safe to take a and it's important to do that. We don't want to rush aimlessly ahead with medical interventions that may not be either effective or safe So I think you're right. We're not gonNA have a like welcome home parade we're done. We'll have a moment. We will probably have a moment. Relief feels normal enough that we do decide. This should be memorialized celebration. We are all going to go. Thank God and that will be a wonderful celebratory day but but it's not going to be a moment of declaring over because infectious diseases really aren't over and honestly even this one. We always GONNA BE CORONA virus. But all the UPPITY meow infects these deputy Miala just in the world have been telling everybody. A pandemic is dangerous. We're likely to have a pandemic 'em even sort of said it's likely to be respiratory infection. There that's going to be the next big one So once this is done we're not done with panics. Hopefully what we'll learn actually as much better infrastructure. But here's the optimistic part. So that's the pessimistic part. Were not likely to have like Oma. God's done and it is sees all of your listeners and you and me as humans. This is hard to hear but we should. We should be prepared to be heroic about how long it's GonNa take to do the social distancing to get to a point where we can safely go back to sort of life as we normally know it. That's going to the thing honestly is going to get us through the fastest better and more comprehensive testing for a symptomatic people if we could one hundred percent tell you in fifteen minutes we could have. Every household have attested everyone in household takes every morning and says you're going to transmit corona virus if you go out today and you're not even if you never catch the interview. Never get the disease symptoms if we could just do that and we could tell people responsibly. Please isolate you are actually infectious right. Now that's right that that's what makes it so infuriating about the like. I don't care I'll go out and we saw that with the spring breakers like again it goes back to the the the message is like it's not you. You are not the center of the universe. And that's that's what. I want to communicate as much as I can. So here's here's how I have been trying to communicate this. I don't know if it's a good idea. But I think it nells the idea of a true American heroism which is normally pitched as individual right with a communal good. I really love old school westerns. And if you think an fundamental core about what a Western is and so there's been some great onerous switching of Western so like firefly is a fantastic western even though it's the Scifi Space Common. It's a wet. The what makes a Western what makes a compelling Western. What makes a real American John Wayne or or You know going back even further like high new but what makes a Western? Is that idea that you are willing to put yourself in bodily harm? In the defense of the powerless unity. There is A. There's a community of poor farmers or women and children and they are being threatened by the outlaws. And you personally. The hero are going ride out to meet the outlaws on your horse and shoot the bad guy and protect village and right. The magnificent seven right is such an amazing because it humanizes the aspects of heroism right. There's the fellow WHO's worried. He's lost and Actively scared but doing it anyway and the stimulus is going to ride into battle. Just because it's the right thing to do and the guy who is purely motivated by greed and wants to believe that there is treasure they defending not just the poor the community right to all of the all of those are different acids of the nobility of that rugged individualism of the true story of American heroism. Those are rose. Go protect the powerless right. In this case we can do that by staying home right and that is sort of an opportunity we can all sort of feel listless if feels very fight club to be like we have no. Great War. We nothing was really called on on my generation is typically this. This is the year being asked to stay home. Which is no joke. I know people are GonNa frame it as like all you're being asked to do is stay home and I'm like that's a tricky game for some people. My heart goes out to the listeners. That don't that don't have anybody in their immediate life. It's harder to do it. Not Everybody's designed to be a hermit. I understand But this is that opportunity to hero for a greater good and when we look back. I think we'll be proud that we did what we could to help. Because even if you're like I can get it and survive. That's what I would want to say to somebody like spring. Breaker is like dude. You're in Florida you know. How many old and at risk people are in Florida? Like get over yourself. This is absent. Yeah Yeah we gonNA Badge of of messaging. This is also making young people. Seriously ill. It's just not doing it at the rate at which it makes people seriously ill but I actually. I just gave up a a scientific webinar for lay audience on the mathematics of how individual behaviors handwashing and social distancing. Do Change the course of epidemic and so it sounds. It does from a policy perspective when we hear our leaders scientists as humans when they say what what is your heroism and the answer is on your couch and wash your hands. It doesn't feel satisfying. But if you're if you're listeners. Curious they're easy ways to explain why it works I'm not the only person who's tried to explain this on the web now but there is my my own. Explanation will be on the website at the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis. There are a bunch of other great videos on Youtube. We can slain works. They don't care why works as a black box. It is not nothing that is not saying to you. We don't know what else to tell you so just do this. Nothing thing. This is everything right is writing out to meet the bad guy on a horse. It's funny that you mentioned cells dividing because I find that to be helpful image when I think of humanity as one body and bodies being made of cells and when you look at when you look at it under a microscope a bunch of cells. It's so clear to us that that's one thing we call that one habitat but we get stock and this is very sort of my specialty. I love we sort of New agey stuff like just all that aside literally we are one. This is the movie Bio Dome Basically. We're we're realizing that everything you do affects everything else and that can be we can infect each other with paranoia we can infect each other with truth we can infect each other with kindness. I resisted but I wanted to tweet many times. A friendly reminder people in my neighborhood corona viruses not transmitted with smiles so many people liked voiding eye contact. Like are you fucking crazy like I'm holding my daughter you're across the street? Let her wave at you. Let's let's get it. Open the windows of an ISO honestly. No I have empathy for that reaction because I understand because because we're social creatures normally what we're being asked to do right now and this is also why I think it's such a H- It's not it's not mischaracterization to call this difficult into Roic we're so normally social that by cooling back even in the way of not not coming across the street to say hi to each other right violating social norms in ways. That means that we don't know anymore exactly how to interact with each other. Like isn't route to make contact not meet my neighbor doorstep. And that I don't go over and say hi M. I. INSERTING IF I suppose you're right I don't. You emanate versus back to the Laurie. I feel fine about infectious and I go. You don't know that. Stay away from me so I actually have a lot of empathy. And that's also. Why is this so difficult and heroic that we can do this to try you out with? Our new protocols are for being considerate of each other and social. And I love it. Thank your governor. You're actually going to California. Has made a beautiful transition language as some other governors from social distinctive physical distance right. We don't have to be socially like that but we'd is GonNa take some effort on behalf of all of us to figure out some new good protocols Elbows with people in greeting. That's not gonNA work like all like elbows are not the most natural part of our body to extend on the other hand is a very natural breeding navy. We all just start with figuring that out is going to take some real cultural innovation and collaboration. It's not the sort of thing but one person suggested it'd be sort of thing where we as a community of humans across the globe converge on things that work for us in. Don't but I understand but people who don't wave and don't make eye contact because it's such a compromise of fundamentally social nature not know which when we're insulting people we don't want to insult and right for holding you baby. Nobody wants to make a cute baby upset. What if you maybe? What's to come and hug this stranger? Because she feels like babies do right know strange trial lawyer. So you're still right on. I actually I only wore a mask one day on its because I had to fly and it was after I was flying home after everything happened so I wore a mask and now I try my best smile. Extra people wearing masks. 'cause I noticed when I was wearing a mask you become a nonperson you're like you're not in the mix at all. No one look at them. It looks like you're in Cobra from Gi. Joe You look like a bad guy or something. Obviously a doctor is a different situation in knowing is still in its cage. It's quite a bit more than half also for your initiative to make this more romantic. We are trying to slay the dragons of of being alone and those are serious young. Un archetypes of like. What's it like to wake up with yourself and be with yourself every day and again I love the spiritual side of things? It's a serious or street tree on on a culture that has no value for turning things off so again I hate the fear. I hate the pain. I hate the suffering. I wanted to and I'm working to end it and sometimes I go like. Oh Wow I never would have done this for myself. I never would have just now aken all of this time off from stand up all of this time with my family and after a while and I were like this is so normal whereas before all of this if we didn't have a nanny nanny doesn't come Saturday Sunday Monday and I remember saying I was like that's insane. We needed to come on Monday. At least and now we're like. Why did we ever even need that? Because life is so different and so much more little house. Now Yeah so I think it is true people are are. I find it comforting. That people attacked rather quickly to different circumstances. And then find that new normal to be. Okay so I I actually don't see anything wrong with either way of life with either. The really rapid fire is externally driven. We're all going to be out in the community or the meal. I think most people that I talked to who are really happy. When we don't have a pandemic have a good balance of what they're gonNA turn off and just be peaceful in themselves and when installed Really outward focused but right now there's there's an added layer of difficulty in that introspection and living with yourself because no matter who you are in. It's I think it's it's got to be so much worse. Your personal struggles with with true clinical anxiety right now but all of us have a little voice in the back of our heads right now saying the world is dangerous. And if there's not a lot to distract you from that bat voice can get overwhelming and so there's also there's not just living with your cells than a way of the row and going off into the Wilderness and confronting yourself and figuring out how to live peacefully with person that you are an innate even be a better better hugh there is also the outer withstand that constant barrage of anytime. You talk to anyone else. Are you okay anytime that you think about your loved ones? Are they okay? Anytime you get groceries. Do I have to disinfect? This bag anytime you look at the news. Is there a new discount? That's that's something really hard to to deal with the best of times and now there's also this added silence to fell. But I think that worrying can can overwhelm. And so I think. Also yes again. physical distancing. But this also. Yes we're retreating to our homes but that doesn't mean we're doing it alone. Thank God we are doing the technological age where where this nurse can listen to. Your podcast and people can skype with each other and might research. Group has been having Friday afternoon. Happy hours by zoom. Were literally we're not talking research? We're all we're all working so hard on this the rest of the week but an hour on Friday night. We're literally each of us is getting some form of beverage alcoholic beverages but even the ones you don't drink alcohol like I'm getting ravine together and we're shutting off the voice and that that is wonderful also about collective sociality of humans. We can support each other not just in being alone in our houses but not being alone in our souls. But that's the thing is knowing I don't know why. Have a joke about owning the movie diehard and then it would come on. Tv Like Network TV. And I would watch it and I. I was always fascinated with why I would watch a movie that I own and then somebody I forget who they sent me there were like I think subconsciously you like knowing that millions of other people are watching it. And there's something going on here with that. So if I just took time off I said devout I would always feel a little bit like itchy. That other people were out there doing other stuff. We're doing this together if it helps to imagine yourself as a cowboy or a night or a boxer or whatever you want to see your fighting some serious doubts in real foes and we're doing it together and we're doing okay and that's super super important and you're doing it for the collective which as you said. I love what you said about Not Seven summarize about the also sent a yeah right right but they all had pants in the magnificent seven also had even in the seven Samurai right. That movie begins with the Summer. I- shaving his talk not to masquerade as a monk image of sacrifice that is his staff and his power. He just knows that the best way to protect people the best way to be a Samurai right then is to masquerade as among into shave is top notch and the the cultural weight of that action is so beautiful at the beginning of that movie right. That's what they used to do when they captured. Samurai it was the most degrading thing you could do to cut off. Its top not so do at for the greater good. I mean chills. I have chills just thinking about it. This is one of my favorites. I do love seven sunrise so much. Yeah well I mean this is in our DNA in those stories. I take some some solidarity in fact that even though we haven't faced this specifically there's notes of this type of awakening that we realized that we're in this together and that we have to do something for one another. I don't know I keep going back to my dad but I was wondering. Do you guys have a term for that? Isn't it like when I when you shoot a movie right and you're on the streets of Manhattan and somebody has walks through the frame. We call that a bogey. So when you guys are mapping out like okay we can predict that seventy percent of this group will stay. 'em when are you like thirty percent are going to be bogies like you have a? Is there a scientific term for my father? That's what I'm asking. Yeah so back from his desk shifted over the decades so so in the fifties or so through maybe the eighty S. Maybe early nineties if you look in the scientific literature it's called non compliant okay. Are we shifting away from that because it felt really paternalistic to be like you just have to comply with our orders? So apparently called adherence or non adherence okay so do you adhere to the recommendation or or or do not adhere. And it's not really. Are you coops lying? In the sense of seating your will on its aligning your real with the recommendation. While that's that's I mean. We're we're running out of time here. But I could talk to you for such a long time about the misappropriation of virtuous things in the human spirit that you see happening here because we know there's nothing to fear but fear itself there is something again mythic about like Hawk off. I'm going out. Nobody stops. Nobody tells me what to do and even the conspiratorial like Yaba. Why would they say that like it was like second? I'd say the same thing about flatter there's not a flatter I'm just saying it's the misappropriation of a natural. Yes instincts to question what you've been told but when it starts jeopardizing other people's lives you're like guys do it for flatter killing everybody like. I should tell my dad. Dad Go believe there at this flat. At least that would keep you safer by the way I am going to keep bothering him physically physically distant. So I'm not giving up but Yeah there's there's the way that our brains can take good instincts. Misuse them well. But it's also it's not just it's not just a misappropriation of instincts right that the most logical intelligent responsible thing than anyone can do is to realize the limitations of their own knowledge and understanding and then rely on expert advice from others in that context and so yes we should all question things but then none of us can know enough of anything. I I am an expert in epidemics and I am an expert in by Maddox and if I have a question about finance I go ask someone else and then they told me something at because I I like to question stuff. I like it if they explain why to me but if I don't get it at some level new responsible intelligent thing to do is to go. I'm not getting this but you are an expert in this and I'm not it's It's great so so on some level I I have a huge respect on also flatter. There's complicated because we can't explain trigonometry and there with gliders I but yes look when this is over. We'll talk again. We'll have you WANNA drop for episode. When you're rescued in less burden will talk just about those fun things always but but I but I respect greatly the people who were suspicious even of of people of me like people who say but what the Hell do you know. I want to evaluate this for myself. I respect the hell out of that but there are times where you have to understand the limitations of your own knowledge. Yeah the APP. Yeah if you wanted to try stand up. You should listen to somebody who's done. Stand up for twenty years. Anybody would get that. And if you're like look I just want to try it. I'd be like go ahead because I know the process itself will teach you just as you know. Mathematics will teach you as well. You'll be at least humiliated by the by the breath of the year undertaking. I if I could ask you. We're almost out of here. My wife has Ballot has therapy three. So I'm going to take over with. So that gives us eight minutes so one question and then and then we'll wrap up with Something about that because that's what we're talking about. Sure I haven't had somebody who Applied Mathematics. I don't even know what that means. I just know that means addicts and that you apply. This is this is more of a personal philosophical question. What do you make of the of the fact that math exists that we didn't invent math but that we discovered man how? How do you reconcile that? As a universe operates and I'm not trying to trap you into believe I'm curious. Just what what is the story you tell yourself a world you can map the trajectory of Venus and know where it's going to go and you get. What math is. What do you make of that? What story does that tell you? Oh that's such a great question. It's not an eight-minute question. Oh I'm so sorry I'm going to try and do the very tiny version but seriously I love this. I actually have a good friend. Who's of Lhasa Her tells with your mind talk about exactly this a lot So so there are two. There are two separate parts of your question and one is about the internal discovery. Mathematics itself is pure object pure language pure construct and the other is about what it can tell us about the external world and that's also that is the difference between pure and applied mathematics. Actually so in pure maths and I started out life in your math and wound up in a repetition and all of Disclaimer a lot of my family going back generations on both sides. Our pure mathematicians. So I'm definitely the black sheep of the family with the pure math is the idea of just taking an logical core a set of assumptions or statements and going what are all the logical implications of that thing that I just sad and what are all the complexities can i. If I turn it this way and look at it too I noticed something different by restated that way does it also mean other things that I didn't know I'd already sat. And that's jewel process of discovery of the richness of the statement. You already made and that. The is so complicated that basically thousands of years of pure mathematics and millions really of not. Titians HAVE BEEN INVOLVED. Basically just examining the implications of an initial set of five accepted. Statements made five axiomatic statements and it has taken thousands of years millions of people to still now be discovering just the implications of those things and it is beautiful. I think the internal rigor and and beauty of that is is part of why mathematician. Because I can think of no more compelling thing to do with with the gift that is a human mind then to spend it cognitive league on logic itself. Yeah on understands what is yes. Yeah but that is a separate question from. How can we use mass to predict trajectories planets? It's related because the same rules of logic and construct than perspective are brought to bear about the external world and says separately. There is beauty to the fact that there are physical laws and natural laws of the universe. And that however they came about if your spiritual and believes that they were created. If you're a completely neutral atheist believes that they were they were somehow aligned out of chaos by random chance. It doesn't matter. There is a beauty to the the existence of those laws and the discovery of them by that process of logical abstraction and then being able to predict the by going did we got the logic riot it it works. We were able to to think. Wait a minute if we accept gravity which we don't understand at all what how. Gravity is free except gravity and we can calculate things with Calculus and physics and then Venus should be there and then it's there that's also satisfies a different part of my soul from the pure idea. No such an amazing thing to be able to go. Humans can understand enough to predict the natural world so that we can predict the orbit of planets and we can hopefully stem the tide of pandemics. Does that make you feel less alone when you see? I don't WanNa call order because I know there's still a lot of mystery and science and math. Maybe not so much math but you could tell me that is it make you. How does it make you feel emotionally? You get the rapture. Your brain can understand things that I can't understand. I'm not saying that to be falsely humble. I'm just saying that's your field. Do you have those quiet moments of like an ecstatic? Oli shed. I'm a part of a system. That is so elegant your note in a symphony. You ever feel that way I so I I there moments but I think more often for me I am simply so beautifully awestruck by that. It's less about my part of it and of course I mean yes of course it's biological organisms all part of it but the moments where. I truly feel that I've figured out or I've understood something beautiful and true about the world in the way because of the way that humans have constructed science and logic and math and allowed me to think and to train myself to be able to go. That's why this guy's blue. I can explain why I perceive the sky as blue and why someone else does also and why we have that commonality. So I think that's where I feel the commonality under kinship with everybody else that these rules applied to alter not so much mind as my personal of re and understanding of the those are moments. Ryan simply awestruck by the universe. We need more people like you. I always trying to know and understand myself. I'm just so appreciative. That there are people like you because a p being the penis that he is is is thinking about. How would it feel for me to get a charge out of that? I'm glad I exist. I create the things that I create. What? I'm so grateful that people like you exist. Because you're not like me. Your brain works differently and especially at a time like this when we need to be so much more collective. It feels like we changed obvious but we didn't think you're selling yourself short because you're quite seriously my husband laughs at me because I get. I get shocked up at this point talking about our our Comedians as our nation's heroes because of that it will take you might shortlist of euros right now or maybe Anthony Fauci and John Oliver Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart for having birth degenerate Be just the people are are allowing us to have that collective experience of being emotionally capable of dealing with all of this. I don't think I'd be able to do my research right now. We know people like you helping us very well. You know while except that because the theme of our entire conversation was that we're in this together and yet really beautiful. I'm feeling deep appreciation for you and thank you for everything that you're doing and it feels very nice to be appreciated as well and I hope people got some value out of this and I really would love to have you on again. Dallas here for her therapy What we can just talk. Even more about. Peer math applied math. That's so interesting too. I mean I'm an academician. I will always love to talk about the things that I find. Beautiful it's me out so so yes these me back. Thank you for joining us. Let's end on everybody. Fill in the blank. Everybody should be blank and then we will be blank. I would I think everyone should be Kind and then we will be okay and I think large will let us realize the heroism social distancing and let us live with ourselves while is difficult and let us rely on each other in the ways that we need so everyone should be kind and then you're the best I can say. Wash your hands and hit me with the face of the Buddha. Thank you need to divide. I appreciate you. It's it's silly but we have the guests they keep it crispy. That's how we sign off if you wouldn't mind keeping crispy. I've never had such a dense mine. Say That thank you very much. I appreciate you thank you so much. Pc Way safe. Yes get some rest be well. Thank you Chris Abated.

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