Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased
They tell me something funny. We need a good coping. Can't be spontaneously funny like that I'm not a comedian we got. That's that's a cold open. We'd actually like. Hello and welcome to the fivethirtyeight politics podcast I'm Galen Droop. Nate silver and this is in DHS model. All right. I don't know if we got it but we gave the effort. It's a rainy morning. We're recording this nothing but darkness on the horizon. So you know maybe a little bit lacklustre relative to some previous model talk intros. Why was going to say we have eighteen days until election day? How're you doing? It sounds like not great don't. Okay. It's like Zina's paradox each day each step is like twice as long or something. Yeah I know there's been. On the social media and stuff like a little bit of re litigation of two, thousand, sixteen always a fun topic. You love to see it do feel like the pressure is on this time around in a way that any different because people had doubts about the forecast in two thousand sixteen whether legitimate or illegitimate. I think and you can go ahead and. Listen like Zach Lowe podcasts like right like the aggregate. There's so if you're an aggregate I think fivethirtyeight not on the we have been blamed I think we should have gotten a lot of credit for two thousand sixteen for being prescient and for giving trump a pretty good shot when other people didn't we'll right. But anybody who listens to this podcast knows that. So I guess I'm curious. Does the pressure feel any different this time around because whether or not? Those criticisms are legitimate. We've said they aren't, but because of the popular perception of forecasting and polling and things like that I mean it's it's all a stupid all these models I mean they used to be bigger differences. Now, all these models have biden it about the same number now at eighty seven percent economists is ninety one percent. One eight percent eighty, four percent they're all saying, okay, look. We're now at the point where you can go back and examine how big is this lead how off would have to be for trump to win right and we're just handicapping services. That's the correct number that trump is giving the rain somewhere the range of five percent to twenty percent depending on different assumptions given how far behind he is in the polls and given that we have two and a half weeks to go and accounting for the fact that Ariza correlated in different states and. Like we are setting those odds correctly we did not determine if we're in the one in eight world where he wins the one in eight or one and seven chance that's not up to us, it's up to voters. It's up to the candidates up to the world right up to the pollsters. I guess to some extent but we're setting proper odds and in a world where people are more rational than I don't really care if the one eight comes up or the Senate comes up now realistically will I be of well the whole polling we`ll Probably, but I, know. because. Like I can't do anything about it, and all I can do is give you an honest answer and give you the best forecasts that I can. So I can't do anything about it. I'd much rather be on the side where eighty seven percent of the time we'll look at least somewhat smart instead of seventy percent giving that we get on even if like we have a narrow favourite who loses I'd much rather that some heavier favorite but beyond that, I can't do anything about it. All right. You heard it here first folks according to five thirty, eight, nate silver has exactly zero to give if you don't like our. I mean, what can I could I do? We spend so much time with these models thinking carefully about different sources of uncertainty and making conservative choices. We think not unduly conservative but understanding that usually when you're back testing a model you tend to make. Choices. So we kind of making delivered choices than we air on the conservative side. Right Donald Trump is ten and a half points behind in national polls probably seven seven and a half points behind the tipping point states. Biden's fifty two or three percent of the vote they're not around decided voters left twenty million people have already voted as the time we were recording this right. The race has been pretty stable. Trump is trying to same lines that he has for the whole campaign that have him ten points down. Right there's a pandemic it's killed how many people now wanted Fifteen thousand plots and it's getting worse again in the US were not going on a limb out on a limb. But with a model that says, Biden is the heavy favorite to me that trump's still has a one in seven or a one in eight chance or whatever is actually kind of high given. All things are going wrong for him. All right. So I think it's fair to say that how the public views are work to some out of our control. At this point, we try to be really diligent. We try to show our work and explain where we're coming. From and we hope that people appreciate that. But let's check in on specifically where our forecast stand for the Presidency Senate House Etcetera, and then we'll get into some more specific questions. So as of the time of this recording, which is Friday morning as you already mentioned, Joe Biden has an eighty seven percent chance of winning Democrats have a seventy-three percent chance of winning the Senate and ninety six percent chance of keeping the house, and I also looked this up before we recorded it's not listed on the forecast but Democrats have a combined seventy percent chance of winning all three. So, there's a slim chance that Democrats would win the Senate but not the presidency, but in large part that trifecta hinges on the Senate or vice versa. So let's start by talking about the Senate which has the most uncertainty involved in the forecast at this point and Democrats chances of winning that chamber have gone up by about ten percentage points in the past ten days and they've gone up from about fifty eight percent when we launched. So what's responsible for the changes that we're seeing it in the Senate? So one thing to keep in mind with all these forecasts is that. Democrats are ahead and so if time runs off the clock, the situation stays as it was before and they gained ground because there's less time for Republicans. To have something shift that brings the race back toward them. Yeah. With the Senate, it's just a lot of like drip drip drip of individual polls and individual states tend to be fairly good for Democrats. There's been a bunch of pulling in north. Carolina. That tends to show cal Cunningham, the Democrats still ahead despite sexting accusations. Gideon in Maine Democrat is up to sixty three percent to win kind of a little bit out of the Tossup Zone until leaned democratic in Maine in Georgia quite a bit of polling they're in both those races remember there's a special election race in Georgia that has multiple candidates on the ballot for both parties. What's happened there is that you have to Republicans Kelly, loftier, and Collins who are kind of trying to outflank another and be kind of crazy far right I mean Kelly. Waffler like was endorsed by Cunanan support the other day and proudly Brag about it whereas when Democrat Raphael warnock has locked up almost all the. Democratic vote. So that's all of a sudden very competitive race when we play out both the primary and the runoff yeah I'll say, George, we did have several listeners send US questions about that folks noticed that in one day. Republicans went from seventy two percent chance of holding that seat in the special election to a fifty one percent chance. was there something specific that happened on that one day? So it is pretty unusual if you track are models for us to have that sharpest shift, the recent happened there is that you have all these pollsters that have been conducting polls of Georgia, but they haven't been testing potential runoff matchups. Quinnipiac finally tested warnock versus lafler and Collins one and they had worn off the Democrat way ahead. So finally, getting a runoff polls basically were flying blind. May the model more competent that Democrats potentially win a runoff there, and since that race is very very likely to go to a runoff than that was important to the model when considering the likelihood of the Democrat or Republican winning that runoff election. In Georgia, it's going to happen in January and we're already getting to know the results of the election. So does that change the probabilities at all once that happens there are different electorate say in a special election runoff. November. So currently, the Democrats have an edge in the generic ballot there six points ahead. That's kind of the national environment is Pro Democratic for racist Congress by six points I'm believe the model assumes that for the runoff then it goes back to a neutral environment earliest and uncertain environment. So it does assume that things are worse for Democrats, and they would be if you had that run immediately. So it's like warlock is ahead in the polls and the runoff. Our models prior is probably the Republicans would win the runoff and it's balancing those two kind of coming up with fifty fifty in Georgia now. All right. So we were focusing in on the Senate. We've talked about North Carolina and Georgia. Are we seeing any other? Significant polls coming in giving us a better picture of how the races are playing out and maybe starting with Alaska with plenty of people have asked about and has become somewhat of a meme on twitter. What's the expression don't sleep? Which I think that election twitter has been like crowdfunding even polls of Alaska I don't know what exactly is so exciting about last I. Am sure that it's lovely and obviously it's the largest state in the union. So there's lots to love but. What do we know about the actual Senate race? There were presidential not matter. So we will moore after we finish according to Say New York Times CNN college upshot poll will be available in Alaska. We don't have the inside scoop. Alien Science could ask but. There hasn't been a lot of high quality pulling Alaskan number one, the polling Alaska's always kind of mess. UPS and partisan polling suggesting that the race is very close Senate race there a cure. See what that you're at times poll shows, but you have to remember in two thousand eight. A similar year for the top of the ticket presidentially Democrat Mark Baggage One Senate race in Alaska inner minds just a little bit of this year outgrowths him credit candidate in the polls kind of tied. Now, those mostly partisan polls right kind of tied. Now, maybe a couple of points behind Dan Sullivan. Incumbent non-person Pub Alaska had Sullivan up four, and if the person polls tie than that also would translate into roughly Sullivan plus four. Alaska's there's a lot of uncertainty, and so it's a race to watch with about a twenty five percent chance of winning pre upshot, Sienna poll and the presidency in Alaska. For that matter I mean Biden is doing well relative speaking in a lot of these very northern states. MINNESOTA. So we also have Biden with about a twenty five percent chance of winning the presidency in Alaska. So to follow up, we're GONNA get to more or less than or questions later but we did get a lesson or question on this and it's from Dave. He says Perry wrote an article on the Senate races in Montana, Kansas and Alaska. Right now, the model is showing DEM's at thirty two, percent, twenty, six percent and twenty three percent chance of winning those states taken together. That's a sixty one percent chance dams when at least one of those three Senate seats is this the Proper way to interpret the model or should we assume they are correlated? No because they are correlated not correlated as much as presidential states are Senate races can operate somewhat independently from one another, but they are correlated for sure if you look very carefully at like our Senate Histogram, the graph is a little asymmetric meaning. There is a tale where the polls underestimate Democrats. They win all these lean Republican races, right as well as all the tossups and then all of a sudden they're fifty five or something Democratic senators, right so republicans, do need to worry about that but at the same time. It everything holds and Democrats lose all those lesnar slash tossup races. I mean Republicans have a thirty percent chance of twenty percent of keeping the Senate it's not nothing. Yeah. All right. So I do want to talk about the presidency, but are there any other Senate polls that have caught your eye since Monday before we move on not really GonNa think about Senate races to is at the polling tends to be pretty stable and our model is pretty conservative about. Shifting those races around you know you had a poll, for example in Michigan that showed the Republican John James only one point behind from a but then you've had other polls like, gosh is that race a tossup now? But since you've had the roller polls showing Gary Peters Democratic, incumbent head by. Six to nine points I should say so like people don't change their minds in these Senate races much as like for the presidency and they don't shave the presidency much either. But YOU WANNA take a pretty long term look at the polls not expect to be some type of sharp turning points necessarily. So. When it comes to the presidency last week on model talk, you said that the state polls didn't quite reflect the ten to eleven point race that we were seeing in national polls is that still the case or have we seen staples catch up to the national polling since then? A little bit I'd say, maybe there's a points worth a gap right where it's more like nine or ten points. If you extrapolate from St poll versus tenure eleven points in national polls, I think some of the higher quality state polls maybe are more in line with the larger leaves for by. There's a lot of mediocre republican-leaning Robo polls Trafalgar Cetera like kind of get thrown in the averages right and they tend to sometimes collectively knocked biden down by. PFAFF pointer point or something if there are several of them any given time. I. Don't know but also ten or eleven points is pretty Gargantuan lead at a very big win. So. There's some may be pryor by what you'd be skeptical that he's really hit by ten or eleven points. Wow. That's big. Right. But clearly trump's not increased shape exactly. Do we have any better sense at this point of what's responsible for this polling high for Biden last week we had so many things were happening at once it's hard to disentangle them I guess we're a week out from than now or should we expect that the debate is not having any impact that covid nineteen is still having any impact. Of course, Cova nineteen pandemic is, but I mean his personal diagnosis, I mean outside the range where you college abate balanced debates two and a half weeks in the past now right. So you think that if Biden has realized gains from the debate maybe now they're semi permanent especially since Biden's number has come up more than trump says, come down had some undecideds who have now locked in or decided upon Biden with code. It's a little harder to know if the president being out of the hospital will help him. Doesn't seem like it's tightening based on that but that's a little bit more uncertain. There are a couple of things number. One is at Joe Biden has a pretty big edge in advertising especially in swing states, and we think advertising's a little overrated in general if trump is really kind of running out of money then maybe that helps put some wind in Biden sales and adds so numbers and keeps that debate bounce from receiving to the mean. Also, we have a lot of people already voted how Else does handle. That is an interesting question. It's possible that pollsters some people who were deemed to be unlikely voters now have voted and when you say you've already voted you count as a likely voter who would have been excluded otherwise. So the early voting could have some effects on the polls where the pollsters are handling that correctly or not. I am not one to say or when does research it enough to know You know. But those are some alternative theories for why Biden's kind of help us lead. You wrote about this this week and it's something that some of our listeners noted as well, which is that for the first time on our winding path towards an electoral college victory. Snake on the forecast Georgia shaded blue for the first time which. is now likely to be won. By Biden, it's still essentially a toss up but that for the first time in the forecast, the. Democrat. Biden slightly slightly ahead of trump there maybe the specific question here we get from Joseph which is surprising as a that Georgia now seems likelier to go blue than Ohio I don't know I mean we have the kind of the same right we're both like close to fifty fifty as it gets I think I would bet on. Ohio if I had to pick between one of those going to buy, it's a bit more consistent with his strength elsewhere in the Midwest, there are barriers to vote in Georgia. They're might actually does try to kind of account for but. Clinton only lost Georgia by five points in twenty sixteen. If you only lose by five and election where you won the popular up by two and then by the win by ten than you might expect your to shift enough for by to win it by a couple of points. So it's not implausible by any means. Church is also pretty inelastic state. He doesn't actually swing around that much in part because you have like a very solid base of Republican conservative. Evangelical. White voters you the very solid democratic base of black voters plus Atlanta area multicultural younger voters but the GOP based just slightly larger but they're probably are enough swing voters in the Atlanta suburbs to hand Democrats. Narrow Victories if Democrats are at the top of the range with those voters. So it's plausible and saying that trump won Ohio by eight points in two thousand and sixteen. So actually trump did better in Ohio than he did in Georgia maybe these are two good states to watch in terms of how Biden and trump are performing in your perhaps standard rustbelt versus standard sunbelt state on election day and it also worth noting that Democrats don't actually have to win either Georgia or Ohio to win the presidency and all right. They do not have to win either state. No, and it's pretty unlikely that either state would be the tipping point you have to get in some weird maps. If Biden loses. Nevada and Arizona and Florida and North Carolina. then. You have some apps were by a with need Ohio is part of strengthening West to overcome losing Nevada and other stuff like that and similar like if Biden decimated the midwest and lost Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, then you could make up for that if you one Florida and Georgia and North Carolina. So we're talking about some pretty far fetched possibilities keep in mind that like you know to some extent now, if trump is down to thirteen, whatever percent chance of winning. Than than weird things would have to happen for trump to win. You would have to see some big shifts or for the polls to be we offer trump to win, and if there are chefs or there's a pulling error, it may not be uniform and maybe that in certain states, something happens to bides numbers although would say by the way like probably the state, it's like the worst affected by code right now or one of the states, Wisconsin, which is not good timing for the president. Yeah, which was actually a lesson. No question that we got. So let's dig into a bunch of our listener questions. We got a question from Sam and how the recent rises in Corona virus cases affected the models Cova adjustments I, know that there are not big adjustments Kovin forecast, but to what extent are there how they changed anything, and then also are we seeing in the polling? I. Guess if it's not in the forecast. So the models doing some work in the background to try to figure out. If, you put an index of covid severity in regression analysis does it give you additional power to explain what the polling says, but do we see polling chefs in the immediate aftermath of a hotspot in a particular state? I have not looked at that detail I mean the best example might be something like Florida where Biden was polling very well in June in the midst of covid peak and the race tightened a bit after their peak declined. So there, there's probably some anecdotal evidence for talking maybe a point or something I mean look I would say. The voters are not inclined to vote for president trump as a result of his Kobe handling. There's GonNa be a lot of. Conversations about rising case counts about lockdowns. We learned this morning that it's very unlikely that a major US company will seek to get FDA approval for emergency use before the election Pfizer said today, we're GonNa wait until mid-november other companies have said that to or their trials are buying scheduler on pause temporarily. Anyway. So the fact that like we're not in an EB in cases heading into, November third is not for the president and it was saying we actually have the numbers still were aggregating all of the polling on approval of President, trump's response to the coronavirus crisis and he's out about negative eighteen net. Approval, right now I think the worst he got was negative twenty. The best he got was negative sixteen over the past several months. So across the board Americans are happy. The next question we got is originally from a lot of people and is also something that the media has been trying to explain recently, the question is what's behind the GOP's recent new voter registration advantage and what should we make of it for the election? I think there are a few things. One is that the GOP has been doing more in person voter registration efforts, door knocking and whatnot that Democrats had not done until recently. Too is that Democrats have headed primary. So they registered voters late last year or earlier this year three is that a lot of younger voters tend not to want to affiliate themselves with the Party. So the registers independence, but they probably profile as likely Democratic voters they might be younger Hispanics for example, might tend to registered independent they probably will not vote for trump at least. Most of the moment. So it's not clear that this gop advantage in party ID necessarily translates to one to one into actually having more trump voters especially because we know that the pool of independent voters by winning among independence by like twenty points in some polls to really big edge and the whole shy trump voter theory that polls are I mean there are various versions that are. More less sophisticated but one version is that polls under sample Republicans. And, therefore, they underestimate trump. In fact, a lot of quality polls show Republicans in a good position in party identification where they're almost tied with Democrats or have closed the gap and despite that trump is losing by ten points because binds winning independence by twenty points. So that really tells it Persuasion Story Elsa when you ask people who vote for in two thousand, sixteen, the upshot holes do this they will find people that say I voted for. In Twenty Sixteen this year I'm voting for Joe by you're not a trump voter if you say I voted for trump tweets team but not this year or to say about Gary Johnson and two thousand, sixteen voting for binding this year her Jill Stein even. So there's all types of evidence that like Biden is about persuasion and not turn out which to me is actually like A bit more robust to avoid polling error because turnout can be hard to estimate you know what I mean. But if you have evidence of votes, Switzer's then that's usually pretty solid. Our next question is more of a process question and it is is new polling data manually input into the model or does the system automatically poll data released. There are a handful of scrapers for samples, but generally speaking we we enter stuff in manually which shot to our colleagues who do a hell of a job. It's a lot of work in you know we're kind of now the de facto polling collector for the whole industry, and we try to be the most comprehensive of anybody. You know if you're curious, it currently takes about ten minutes to run forty thousand simulations of the presidential model and about seventeen minutes to run forty thousand simulations in the midterm model or the congressional model commercial actually is more code is more complicated does more things. So. When you see a new poll pop up in our list of polls at one pm say then you'd expect it about one ten or one fifteen the presidential model would update and then went fifteen or one twenty, the congressional model would update. Next question while early voting is an indicator of final results will late breaking. Like a Komi letter have less impact than they would in a normal pandemic voting environment because so many voters are getting baked in early I mean a bit right. The question is how much because usually people who early are weighted toward people who are pretty firm partisans in have kind of decide who they're gonNA vote on. So let's say that forty percent of people have already voted than big event happens that back trump would that mean only has sixty percent of the impact I'd say probably not but maybe would only have eighty percent as much impact and so it does provide. Some installation to bite. There is no world in which it's good for trump that biden is banking much votes wins ahead ten points. There's world which that's good for trump unless there's some huge rejection rate among these ballots, it may not be that bad for him though but you know I mean they come your letter I mean maybe because that was trump went by such a narrow margin swing states. Maybe, call me letter in twenty twenty. If that comes into play when four people voted maybe a third of the overall turnout, right? Maybe they'll be just enough to have saved Clinton in two thousand sixteen maybe. Katie asks you've mentioned numerous times that the model assumes tightening in the polls. When does that assumption go away and the model just uses the polls? Is that only on election day or someday prior to that? I think it's actually the day before the election the economic weight goes to zero. Let me look for people kind of where we have this. Now it's early ninety one percent poles and nine percent prior. So the prior doesn't play a huge role, but it does a little bit so it means that. As of the recording, we have biden projected to win by. Eight point three points. So note that that assumes some tightening without the prior he had by nine point one point. So why nine point one? And not ten and a half or whatever. He is a national polls while again naked back to that St Paul's national poll gap. Our forecast of the popular vote is mostly based on state polls and they're more consistent with like a nine and a half point Biden lead. We ought question from aerial who says, what are the percentage point ranges us for the different levels of certainty on the website and aerials referring to the favorite slightly favored clearly favored demarcation that we assigned to certain percent chances actually have the list in front of me so I can clarify that for aerial. So from fifty to fifty percent chance, we say it's a toss up from fifty five to sixty nine say slightly favored from seventy to eighty nine percent chance we say favored. So that's where we are. Right. Now, for Joe Biden for clearly favored the next indication that we have not actually gotten to, yet it's ninety percent to ninety, seven percent and the ninety eight or above is very likely to win the election. So do you think we're going to get to either clearly favored or very likely to win the election in the next two and a half weeks? I. Mean. So Biden will keep gaining if the polls hold steady in the percentage terms, right? Because it means less time for trump to make up ground. Yeah, I don't know I mean in theory and a well calibrated forecast than the percentage that you haven't any given day is also the best prediction of the percentage that you have. The next day. So in theory would predict that bind will say eighty seven percent because the race would tighten. A little bit. You know in practice I don't know mean in practice we get the questions of what could trump do to help sultana comeback again that I, get back like. Ten and a half points is such a big lead relative to even wear. This campaign has been even relative to two thousand eight with Obama won by seven, ten f such a big lead that like I don't know if that's easy to sustain although who knows you know maybe trump is in a proverbial downward spiral no plausible to but the model we go with our forecast says that. BINDS GONNA win the popular vote by eight and a half points not ten and a half points. So it does kind of seem the race would tighten a bit. We've got this question a couple times, and it's which party is favored to control the most state delegations in the house were asking this question because if there's a tie in the electoral college, it goes to the. House and then the votes are cast according to state delegation majority not based on Individual House members. So essentially, the question is are Democrats or Republicans controlling six plus state delegations, and I should say there is a less than one percent chance of a tie in the electoral college according to our forecast right now. But do we have an answer to this question regardless eight? We do so. We currently show a twenty five percent chance that Democrats control the must allegations. A twenty percent chance of Republicans control the most allegations. Any fifty percents chance at the majority anyone has twenty six. It's actually gone up for Democrats. So right now I think Democrats Rogan's twenty-six right. So Democrats have to win back some delegations. The easiest way to do that would be to win the Senate Races House. Races in Alaska or Montana which are competitive and with his just one seat. So. Democrats have gained in this calculation it looks like a bit. But keep in mind that like this is conditional in a world where purposing really bad night and lose the popular vote by eight or nine points right and whatnot if the race titans. which is a scenario under which the delegations becomes relevant right? If you have an electoral college deadlock. And you the House to break a tie or interpret competing slates of electors. Then you have vote by delegations. If, we tied it probably means we've ended up having much Republican night. Than we expected going in. So conditional this near with delegations matter that Republicans would probably still have an edge, but you know but it's a reason to watch Alaska and Montana and if you go to download the data if you go to the House national top lines file, it now contains data on the projected delegations per party. All right. We just got a couple more questions that we got again hundreds of listener questions. So thanks to everyone who sent them in we try to get to. As many as possible, a lot of these have longer answers. The question is what impact does mean adopting ranked choice voting have on the model both for the presidency and for Congress. So it doesn't much effect. A lot of polls main will use a version where they kind of simulate the ranked choice themselves or just ask people who they vote for in a two way race. So we use that version of questions in Maine, where testing basically to a matchup instead of with third parties included. We have some code if you had a case where like it was actually unclear who the top two candidates would be like an independent it was a true three way race, right? We have some code to handle those things, but it's very, very unlikely that you're going to have a third party actually in the top two in any of the main races. So therefore, we basically just use kind of head to head polls a main to simulate the effect of a reallocation of votes. All right. Sam Asks have you ever considered trying to model how soon we will know the winner of the election. There are so many variables in that question that I can't even imagine trying to begin forecasting it. We thought about you know there are certain states area thought to be kind of quick counting states. You know Florida Arizona North Carolina Right. We thought about like can you designate a set of quick counting states and we might add something on that? I'm not sure they're gonNA quite as many bright lines the -SSARILY BETWEEN FAST and slow states people would want but we're thinking about trying to have versions of that calculation. All right. Last question bonus question. Do you have a drink of choice for getting through election? Through election-night itself, well, I have to work. So I can't be drinking the booze that I would want why feel like it's getting through election night it's like coffee or read bowl getting to sleep on election night. It's like whiskey vodka are you a beer guy wind guy or a liquor guy getting to sleep after a wild election night? Usually, a beer debit card election I probably whiskey or something. Yeah. All right that's a good note to end on. Thanks nate. Thank you Dylan and I should also mention big news. We are going to be doing daily podcasts basically from here on out excluding the weekends for the most part may be something happens. We'll have a weekend podcast but essentially. From next Monday. When we have our regular Monday podcast through the day, you're going to be getting podcasts every weekday, and then of course, perhaps some on the weekends we'll see hopefully not but get ready for daily podcasts, lots of lots of content daily press folks suffering through these final weeks with us. There we go. My name is Jalen drew Tony. Chow is in the Virtual Control Room Claire Bitter Gary Curtis on audio editing. You can get in touch with us by emailing US at podcast at five, thirty, eight, DOT COM. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments if you're a fan of the show leaves a rating or review in the Apple podcasts store or tell someone about us make sure to subscribe on Youtube as well as you may know, this episode of model top along with most of the House we do are also on youtube if you'd like to watch us from I, guess for me, it's my bedroom nate for you. It's your library talk about all this fun stuff. Anyway, thanks for listening.