260 - Wonk The Pain Away: An Election Special feat. Will Sommer (11/4/18)

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Hello there pretty babies. It's me woman occur, and it's your troppo in just a little bit. We are bringing you our official oh twenty eighteen election preview. Courtesy of our very own walk spurt Virgil, Texas. We're going to break down all the hot races. All the predictions, all the personalities all the gold. We're gonna walk off to go where we're gonna be walking real hard this episode before that, and I know it's because you guys are begging for it. You were demanding it I've heard you the people they can't get enough. I've heard you, and we are your voice we'll be talking to the Daily Beast. We'll summer about our favorite press conference of all time Jacob wall and Jack Berkman live from the Holiday Inn directed by the Coen brothers burn after tweeting start. Start this this. This story has every conceivable level of internet Griff for and pathological personality. It has a dachshund named Jack junior and a shooting. Oh. Coming. It has a make believe pretend intelligence agency called Shir fire intelligence staffed by the cast of inglorious bastards. Yeah. We were just laughing about like, okay? So Jacob walls made up intelligence private intelligence firm called Shir fire intelligence like that's like calling your company, very good company, not a scam and that skin the totally legal not at all criminal enterprise. When I really like about this is that his whole thing. And we'll talk about exactly what it wasn't a moment. His entire plan was basically the upper class internet Griffith version of the maga- bombing of a real big Trump fan who saw his president being attacked and decided I'm going to help and instead of mailing bombs Robert deniro, he decided to try to create a fake sex scandal for Robert Muller. Amazing. He had that he had documents though, the real shit. He's got the real shit. She's got the raw ship. I'm just imagining Jacob wall. Just like in a closet smile. And I'm imagining. Or sitting on um grin, and then or sitting on that a hobby horse thing and the base. Oh, yeah. George Clooney's house. So. Yeah. Just in a second. You'll be hearing about will be our wall to wall. Jacob all coverage. There will be breaking down the midterm elections. But most importantly, Tuesday coming up the most important election of your lifetime of any lifetime. Most recent important most important election, if your life, you know, will there be we'll there'd be a Blue Wave or red tide who can tell no matter what happens on Tuesday night, though, the real story, and the real thing that you do not wanna miss is the debut debut debut of me, Matt and Virgils chop. Oh election night. Live twitch stream over in the whole thing baby from eight till question mar ASU now, and there's going to be guests both in studio and on the phone. This is a highly ambitious project, you know, Felix's staked out his claim in the Twitter. Verse time has come for us to put our marker down. Yeah. We're. Panting up and kicking in where we're going to. We're gonna we're gonna do the most important game of all democracy. Stay tune just be on the lookout for the the twitch link that will have up on for Tuesday. It will not not be on the chop. Oh, FYI twitch stream because you know, we don't wanna step it in anyone's toes, or if we get taken down because of the various, libels and copyright infringements. We do I don't want Felix not to have games available to him. No. Of course, not so Tuesday night. Matt Virgil and myself, we'll be live on twitch bringing you the real raw raw shit, the real shit of the results. And then the takes you need now is always you to talk to your friends about and pretend to have ideas from last time, we didn't election show when it went fantastic cute excess. We've got xactly what everyone wanted and it was a wonderful. Okay. Without further ado will some. All right. People have been Niang for this one. You've been requesting demanding wall wall Jacob wall of ridge. And joining us now is a man who is better equipped to do that than anyone else. You know, the only other will that I recognize that I will not demand that they changed their name if they appear on the show will summer of the Daily Beast. How's it going? Well, hey, good to be back. Okay. So you wrote an article this this week about this utterly hilarious press conference that place in Washington DC involving. You know, internet Trump, you can rind Jacob wall. This weirdo. Jack Berkman and their allegations about like to publicize their ellegation that Robert Muller raped or woman. But before we get into the specifics of that press conference, and the hilarious charades that went down during it. Let's talk a bit about the characters of Jacob all Jack Berkman, let's start with Jack Berkman because he's like sort of the other figure that I wasn't really familiar with who is Jack Berkman. So Jack Rakhmon doesn't really have Jacobs national profile. He's sort of a notorious DC lobbyists in this area. And he's kind of a well known. I don't know if laughing stock is too hard of a word, but his thing is he'll just do anything for publicity. And so he had this event where he was trying to get gay people banned from the NFL. And then. Is a real nice guy. And then after a Seth rich was murdered. He's sort of attached himself to that case. It was initially sorta like posing up to the family, but then when people were losing interest in the case, he started really going wild. And he would have this press conference where he's like, okay. I'm going to reveal this deep state whistle blower who said that the ATF murdered Seth rich. And then I said this guy really gonna come in. And he's like, oh, he's gonna come in wearing a mask like like Luce. Lebron mask or something? And then, you know, the guy ends up not showing it's a classic Jack move. He makes these big promises never delivers. But the other notable thing about him is he actually has been involved in some intrigue one of his sort of minions in this in the fake Seth rich investigation. Ended up getting mad that he was getting all the credit and attempted to murder him. And so there's this whole there's the scene where Jack is walkie hears a noise in his yard or something and he walks out with his dachshund, Jack junior and get. Gets shot twice on. The. Fortunately, fortunately, Jack, Jack has since recovered from that. But but but he's real like kind of colorful local character. And the other thing is this is not far from the first press conference. He's had at this Holiday Inn. In suburban Virginia. He is very into this holiday, the LASSO tell that will happen. Well, I mean, they're continental breakfast is unbeatable. You know, they had they had those waffle makers you pour the batter in. Yeah. Okay. So that's that's Jack Berkman who has a apparently has a dachshund named Jack junior and was shot by a former source of his suppose. But this is really the man of the hour. This is this is what everyone's going crazy for on Twitter. Jacob wall who is Jacob wall outside of his sort of. I mean, we know him mainly as a sort of annoying Twitter guy, who's mainly well known for embarrassing himself, and these snivelling Trump reply. Always there. Mr president. I support you deport column camper, Nick, I'll have shift, but like, but this guy comes from sort of a family of like, you sort of grown in a test tube to be like the perfect snot nose Republican teenager, right? Yeah. That's exactly right. I mean Jacob is a sort of kind of a as you mentioned his dad is a big Republican. That's on Fox News decent amount, and Jacob has this kind of very like pug nationless, but at the same time, as as you mentioned sort of a boot Liqi attitude on Twitter, he's always getting in fights with people and stuff like that. But Jacob sort of original claim to fame was that. He was a the the world's youngest edge fund operator, supposedly. And when he was seventeen he read I, you know, I don't know if this is Bill hedge fund, but he had some sort of investment operation, and I. They don't let seventeen year olds run hedge funds normally because Jacob ran afoul of the regulators and essentially refused to cooperate with the investigation, and he has been banned from wife for from trading futures who could have seen that coming anyone who gave money to this fucking child should have it all confiscated. I'm making a big short on curfews. Homework homework, and that's a bear market. I'll tell you right now. So and then like, you know, the running joke with with Jacob wall is his his sort of patented catchphrase on Twitter is the a hipster coffee shop in LA and blank. You know, that's his go to move when he wants to say like all the hipsters. I know a are all secretly like Trump, or they're all talking about how they're gonna vote ten times in the upcoming election for Democrats that are being paid by George Soros to do. So he's always making these weird tweets most of them as you mentioned from hipster coffee shops, and it's like, the hipster I met the hipster coffee shop, and they're also glad Trump is sending troops to the border. But like, he he he mixes it up sometimes. And so he had one that said, I'm at an urban coffee shop. These these black guys are saying how excited they are avenue. Yeah. But Jacob, you know, he he's really come out of his shell this week from obnoxious Twitter personality to now national news story and always like when these two worlds crossover, and it was really the this press conference. And it was like gateway pundit ran with this story that he was he was you know, intimating that he had something big about Robert bowler. What actually was his claims? And like, I guess like the the Genesis of this ridiculous press conference. Exactly. So there's a couple of like weird tracks. And and as you mentioned a lot of kinda like huckster floating on the edges of this. The the crafts and seen brothers are involved snitched right with our personalities on the left. So this all sort of came to a lot of reporters attention with this. Anonymous, Email from this woman who may or may not exist claiming that Jack Berkman it is associates where offering her tens of thousands of dollars to accuse Mahler of raping her. And so then the crafts and Steen's, I they spilled this open, but Jack Berkman has been claiming for a couple of weeks. Now, it'd be house just t- numbers of women who are gonna accuse Muller of sexually assaulting them. And so there's all kind of came to a head on Tuesday when Jack revealed that he had worked with this intelligence firm called Scherf fire intelligence to find legitimate. If you believe they're online documents they hold out as like a bunch of like X massad guys who like like just are are real lethal like maybe they do like hits. And you can also hire them to like track. Your your daughter's boyfriend or something it's basically a Sasha Cohen character from his latest show. Colonel arrived Murad that guy. Exactly, exactly. So Jacob was weirdly involved in this, and he's kind of tweeting about it. And so then one of our reporters the Daily Beast said we'll Jacob are you involved with surefire intelligence. He's like, no, I'm just like a. Hitter. Dude. Like, I couldn't handle anything that. And and it's true because Jacob turns out to actually be apparently sole employee fired jen's this was revealed in comical fashion. He who is registered for the domain of sure intelligence was registered to Jacob will hit the phone number on the site went to his mom's voice. Now that is top level upset, you know. Yeah. Yeah. A real Jacob Jacobs offset. I is not up to par. The the pictures of his supposed employee's turned out to be pictures of model bar Raphaeli and actor Christoph waltz glories asteroids. So it was real a house the car is that did not did not take much to fall down the flu sleeping the chew in massad is through use your mother's home address number with create your cover. Exactly. Well, I mean, that's really what Jacob said. He said he's been pressed on. Why he lied to everyone? Why you had this fake company said he's like these are investigative techniques. You know, I had to stay low profile. He has this this this fucking completely fraudulent made up intelligent private intelligence agency called surefire intelligence. But I'm like, what are you gonna? What is the connection with Berkman? And these like this AKIs ation of Robert Muller were they were they the people with fire the intelligence the outfit that was trying to track down these claims or pay women to make them. Yeah. So that essentially is how it appears to be. There is a woman on the record law. Professor who says she got an Email from surefire intelligence, offering her money to accuse Muller? It seems as though it's not clear sort of who came up with this idea originally. But basically, they Jack Berkman and contracting fire. He seems to pay them four thousand dollars according to an invoice. And I think I had this in front of me. But I think it had like one of those like operation names. I think it was operation hellfire. So bad in the end Jacob eventually did find this woman who is like a very mysterious character herself. She is not spoken herself. But Jacob claims to have met her through some state work. He did for her. It's not clear whether any of that Israel, and they had this affidavit, basically, we're she alleges Robert Muller raped her in August, two thousand ten in a New York hotel room and Jacob. But so they put this up on gateway pundit where Jacob works in the gateway pundit panics when no one else gets onto it gateway pundit pulls it down. And then they're like we're going to investigate Jacob oil. You know without saying like breadth Aziz our own employees. And so I mean, it's become a real mess. Will I saw on gateway pundit like a when they if they're original article they posted like the the mod in the comments who's definitely not Jim Hoffa was having to be like just want to say here that Jim Hoff had absolutely nothing to do with this story. This is entirely Jakup. And we have since pulled just really a running sideways from this as fast as possible. Also has contracted leprosy. Left pinkie finger just fell off, Jim. Jim's gout was acting up. He had was not aware of this story. His sleep apnea and gout have been bothering him as of lately he's been struggling with drop. See for a long time. It's inhibited his faculties. And they've since let Jacob go from gateway pundit, right? Yeah. Well, they've suspended their relationship. Thing. Clear like, you know, how much of this Jacob walls actual doing. How much Jim Hoff trying to pin it on all that kind of stuff. I mean, this is all abetted by the the gateway pundit tradition of like having bylines on only half of your articles. Okay. So that's that's the background to this this incredible show that was put on at the Holiday Inn suburban DC. So you actually, you attended this press conference, featuring a Jakup and Jack JJ, and you know, as you said, Jack Berkman has done this before promising that, you know, the government, you know, what worker who ice threat would appear in mask and confessed his crimes and then never showed. They were going to bring this woman when this accuser to this press conference, and that was also a no show. They said he landed in DC, and then got very afraid and went home, but they instead they presented a assigned affidavit that like spelled her name wrong or something like that. Yeah. So they had this affidavit and her name is Caroline with an e in in reality. But throughout the affidavit, which incidentally, you know Jacob. Claims as the product of just epic amounts of research. He claims they joined historical societies documents for this. So but this woman's name is misspelled repeatedly. And people said to Jack Berkman said, you know, how do you spell this lady's name and he gives the wrong answer. And they're like well. Geez. You know, she signed it this way because nodoze she's she's got it all wrong. And yeah. So it was real bumbling operation. But but Jakup like his time to shine. Is you know, when he was asked questions are slightly pressed on any of this just I mean, already one of the most uncanny looking of these these Trump, you can rind like just a featureless just sort of fetus face booking PS one character like a very odd. The my favorite take away from this is that he kept Harpen both online, and at this press conference about people comparing him to a corncob or sending him photos of him turning into a corncob. He's very disturbed by that. Yes. So this is a reference to of course, the classic drill. Tweeden witch guys getting owned online and shrinks into a corncob. And so on Tuesday when all this kicked off people were tweeting pictures of Jacob as a corncob the best one. I saw was now that especially now that the FBI is investigating this Jacob as a corncob. And then a giant corn thresher with Muller's faces going by Jacobs gonna hide. So so yeah, so Jacobson very upset about that. He said this in this video, and then at the press conference, he said, you know, people have been very unfair to me, they Photoshop these pictures of me, one of them was a piece of corn. Jacob someone asked him like what is your investigative experience. And he said I've worked on various matters. Yeah. Exactly. I mean, it's all like a I mean. I mean, obviously, it's all extremely fake. I mean Jacob is acting like like once again like with the hedge fund thing Jacob is kind of like reaching for this. This kind of like wonder can status that you doesn't really appear to have earned it all so in this case yacky claims investigative experience Jack was defending him. 'cause people were saying, you know, Jacobs twenty there's no way he can be doing all this research that he's already clearly messed up many different ways. And Jack Berkman goes on this whole thing. And he's like look Jacob is way smarter than me, you know, which is kind of a backhanded compliment. And then he's saying, you know, Jacob is a child prodigy and Jacob has surpassed Mozart in his achievements. Like if you want to say Jacobs, bright kid, he's good at what he does his his age fool, you that's one thing. But to immediately reach for Mozart not to say that his Mozart's equal. But that Jacob has already surpassed Wolfgang Amadeus. Mozart is I don't know. It's just. Why why reach for something? So obviously untrue. I don't know. It seems pretty appropriate to me. Don't you? Remember when a young Mozart was banned from writing symphonies by the Holy Roman Emperor. Will that make you like you and all of the other libero biased fake news? Journalists would you you that make you guys sort of the cell Yere to Jacob walls? Mozart drives us so crazy. And he's so effortless with it. You know, he's just having a good time. Are you poisoning him right now, tell us if you're sleek really giving him arsenic, my other you can't handle his brilliance other. The other amazing fact or feature of this press conference was apparently Jack Berkman fly was down the entire time. Yeah. So this is a an unfortunate seat. Yeah. So he had a slide down the whole time. It was very obvious. There was one point where you got got. But he he's sort of ducked away. And I thought he realized it, but know that he came back, and it was still down. Yeah. It was a real debacle. I should say. So they said the witness was gonna show and then as that morning there was opposed on gateway pundit saying, no, she's not gonna show. But there was a picture a selfie of her and Jacob and her face was like almost like scratched out with like MS paint spray paint. Yeah. Yeah. And then Jacob claims she landed in DC freaked out, and then immediately hopped another flight like it's like like you're at a bus terminal like she was just like, no, no, no. So so yeah. I mean, the whole thing is a big mess. So I mean like what are the questions? Jacob and Jack rast was are you both prepared for federal prison. And they said, no, we are not. But like what kind of like, you know, serious. I mean legal trouble could young Jakup be looking at here with this. You know? I mean, it it looks pretty grim. So the gateway pundit has been getting very defensive about the fact that this case has been referred to the F B I. I mean, their their defense literally is going to be like who made Robert Muller the king of the world. Like like, okay. So we tried to liable. The guy said he the rapist may be committed wire fraud like what's wrong with that. So gateway pundit though, I think we'll probably skate on first amendment grounds. But Jacob Jack. Maybe it a little more trouble. If this stuff about them offering people money to accuse Muller is true. You start getting into obstruction of Justice wire fraud, you know, if there's any destruction of evidence lying to the FBI that kind of stuff. I mean, they say they haven't been contacted by the FBI, but we'll see. And you know, speaking of you mentioned the people ask that they were ready to go to prison. There were a decent number of hecklers at this event. And at one point after Jack compare Jacob to Mozart and said he had surpassed most art somebody else. He can't even open an e trade account. Just another fucking salary. I will say though, the throughout all of this. I give young young Mr. wall credit for just absolutely tweeting through it not backing down in the slightest. Just just going straight through still saying this is going to happen Muller's going down. These women are going to come forward. Even though apparently he had some sort of document that made a claim about a rape accusation that happened on a day when Robert Muller is in the Washington Post having been in fucking jury duty in a different city. Yeah. I was actually a great moment in the sorry. Well, that was a great moment in the press conference or someone asks them like we'll like this date that you're claiming he's in New York. Raping a woman he has jury duty in DC, which is like one of the most bulletproof alibis. You can have is being in a courthouse in another state. And he just goes, well, you know, people go to jury duty, then they're out of jury duty. You know, we don't know what they're doing. You know, like like he was just basically saying like, you know, he could have gone to New York directly after the jury duty. Not all day uses the subterranean tunnels underneath the FBI building. Yes. According to the affidavit, they said Jacob as unit they said Muller, you know, committed this crime on August, second twenty ten and then Jacobs proof that Muller New York that day is that he was giving a speech in New York on August fifth now as you're not the same day. As jake. He it was kind of very metaphysical thing. He said you can be doing jury duty and be in another location to. You can Skype in. Teleconferencing Ella presence. Yeah. Man. That is great. And then I think like the day of the press conference again turns of just tweeting through it a Jacob pedigree tweet. It was like a photo taken from. I think maybe his hotel room at the Holiday Inn. And it was just a photo of an empty street with a bus parked on it. And he was like this is the bus that's bringing in the mob. All it was just like just a bus lie. Yeah. I mean in DC, it's not unheard of to have a tourist. But you know. David was claiming. Yeah. When I got there, Jack and David were saying or excuse me Jacob. We're saying, yeah. You know, this is antifa here. And instead, it was just a true fact stated himself clot, right? Yes. You and I brought John inflatable rat. And there was a great photo of all three of them in an elevator together. Looking like just the absolute this really is. It's a mad mad mad mad world of fish Twitter. Scam artists, the crass true facts stated Jacob wall. Where's Bill Mitchell? When you fuck it need him to just parachute in like the fan, man. That's going to happen. Well, we'll before we let you go. I did just see that. You know, you have a little bit of a late-breaking wall news. Would you like to share that with us that this is just up now is the Daily Beast exclusive from our reporters, atom Rawnsley and Lachlan Marquette? It is they've talked to a woman who says she was ripped off by Jacobs fake intelligence firm, surefire intelligence, basically, she was trying to recover a Hummer that was seemingly stolen from her. And she hired Jacobs firm thinking we're going to be a bunch of ex massad kick ask is. And instead she got Jacob who took twelve hundred dollars from her and disappeared. And so so the morning of this press conference, our reporters were talking to that this woman, and she was saying, you know, okay, I'm going back and forth with Jacob. And I'm saying, hey, like, you need to pay me back or whatever. And Jacob is just freaking out because he's terrified this story is going to break before the press conference. And he's saying he's like, look look. I'll get you like a twenty thousand dollars settlements was calm down. So funny. So pretty funny. I love the idea of like hiring a just like fried intelligence agency to find your missing car. You know, like, I need I need X massad commandos. Yeah. That's kind of like like a like your subtly saying like, by the way, like shoot the guy. Yeah. Exactly. I just the idea of like higher thinking, you're hiring this X massad. And then you get this kind of like off brand encyclopedia Brown. We have ser coffee shop. Well. Must've looked to Jacob wall. I mean, honestly, I may be hiring sure-fire intelligence for my own purposes. Yeah. That'd be interested in looking into that, you know, honestly, I would just like them to come to my birthday party just mingle like just say things. It'd be hilarious. There'd be make amazing party favors. I should say Jacob does not have a private investigator license something that it is kinda legally dicey. And so, you know, we'll have to see he may also have some exposure on that did Veronica Mars have providence PI's listening. Actually, I think she probably did her dad did. Yeah. Okay. Well, one thing is sure fire. And that's that will summer is intelligence, and one of our favorite guests will thank you so much for giving us this wall to wall. Jacob wall coverage. Thank you for hitting our wall. Thanks for having cheers will buy. Okay. Once again, big thanks to we'll summer of the Daily Beast. All right. So we tease it in the opening hope you're ready for it. Hope you ready for Tuesday for the democracy that is coming. You can't stop what's coming. It's a cocky of electoral voting, you can't stop. What's coming in Tuesday is election day will the Democrats take back the house and Senate or will they be stymied in their efforts to hold our torrential orange. Tim Nater way chimp is Bush Bush. Will they be stymied in their efforts to hold the thief in chief accountable for his many crimes against commander in Chito? Our Republic Virgil who hears God midterm mania. I I sure do. Gallup polio. This is already I already want to die. All four hundred thirty five seats in the house are up. Thirty five Senate seats are being contested thirty six governorships will be decided thousands of state and local seats will be on the ballot long with hundreds of key ballot measures on the federal level. This election could determine whether Republicans continue to legislate with unified government or whether Democrats say at least one chamber along with it. Subpoena powers on the state level this election in two twenty twenty will determine who gets the gerrymander the other party out of existence. Whether it will be minorities and young people who get disenfranchise or whether big locks are placed around white gated communities every election day Trump's approval rating, mid to low forties Democrats up on the generic ballot. And the neighborhood of eight percent, but people have a huge net. Positive view of the economy Gallup found that number to be forty three by which people approve of the economy. It's really uncharted territory that we're in isn't it? Yeah. I mean, usually you don't have a situation where the economy is doing well and the president is relatively unpopular. You really is special. Boy, wait one second. I forgot to give a disclaimer before this election special if you are a tanking enter kissed or serious, communist socialist and not a petty booze reformist turn off now. Now now, you're just gonna make yourself mad. I mean, just and also I do mostly do this fun. It's base. It's this is baseball or my two spectator sports. I don't really know. If I don't actually think it matters. Really what's going to happen here? Oh, I think it matters, buddy. We'll it matters. All right. You like both because you're so big George will head the middle of the ven diagram, George him. Just hanging out drinking camomile tea and not wearing jeans because of cultural degeneracy views. Presented in this episode about electoral do not necessarily reflect that of troppled trap house management continue for the blocks of shifting since twenty sixteen one story rustbelt white working class voters returning you saw that in Connor lambs victory. Earlier this year in the Pennsylvania special election. That's deep red terror. Tori, turning to the Democratic Party hardy. Okay. What else are you seeing suburban shitheads normally vote Republican are switching to the Democrats. You saw that in Alabama's special Senate election last year running against an actual pedophile. I mean, it was very close. It really was. And you also see a fired up democratic base everywhere on this show in the battle for the fire in the battle for the house. A lot of the places where Democrats are competing or traditionally conservative suburban districts that flipped the Clinton in two thousand sixteen in part because of changing demographics, and because of some of these aforementioned white suburbanites who voted for Romney, just don't like Trump. And that's a big reason why his approval rating is so low compared to the economic indicators. Additionally, what we've seen a lot of these special election off your election results to return to twenty sixteen presidential margins takes Georgia's sixth district. Jon Ossoff race Ossoff lost by two percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton lost my two percent of the vote. So where he was the same in Virginia state legislative races last year where the seats that Democrats won. We're seats that had pretty much gone for Hillary. So in that in that regard, a lot of these special election results were kind of a regression to the me. Meet and the real question is did 2016 represent a durable. Realignment if every district in the country merely replicated the two thousand sixteen presidential election results. Democrats would fall a bit short of winning back the house because of how gerrymandered the country is. I'm going to say it right here. I've gone back and forth. And I know I have a bet with virtual on this issue and over the months and the stuff special elections and to narrow ballots. I've sort of come around in the past and said that maybe I think I was right. And I'm gonna say it now three days before I actually do think that the house is going to stay for the Republicans by very narrow margin. Uh-huh. And the reason I say that is because I mean, I'm not obviously as into the details of this is other people will Virgil included. But I I look at I read a little bit about it. And the thing that I see a lot of people saying is a lot of a lot of an analyst saying is that the thing that is extraordinary about this race is how wide the aperture of possible outcomes is they're saying we you could see anything from a narrow House Republican majority to a huge democratic surge because so many races are within one or two points apparently. And it's all going to come down to where the late breakers switch, and if they go democrat in any kind of concerted way, then it's going to you could they could win one hundred seats if they in that same uniform way, go Republican they might hold on. Thanks gerrymandering voter suppression. And I just I don't know not really seeing. I'm not seeing what you'd need to see to indicate that there's going to be that much of a Titanic rupture with with like in terms of turnout and voting and a lot of these races to matter. And so I think they're going to hold on Matt sticking out strong position. The chalk bet, of course, is that the Democrats take back the house. The Senate is remains GOP controlled. I think so. Yes, chalk that. The chalk. On a truck. It's a gamble. The more likely over dog dog positions. Dem's the house. Famously reliable and durable material charm. It's embedding house. They would read out the lines in chalk because it would change if you're doing like markets madness. And like the chalk would be the numbers of the teams that are ranked. So if a two plays a fifteen you pick two that's picking the chalk because it's a higher. It's like the lower number. One thing is for sure though, there are three possible outcomes on Tuesday night, one Mets hell world prediction. Republicans retained control of the house and Senate the Blue Wave crashes into the levies of gerrymandering and rolls back. And let's not forget just shitty candidates because people talk about how horrified everyone is my Trump and then people get so mad at non voters. But what are they supposed to vote for in these specific races? Because that's the real issue. You can hate Trump all you want, but he's not on the ballot as much as they want to act like he is you have to actually go out and vote for these mother fuckers, and what they're a bunch of assholes, and, you know, former prosecutors and stuff. It's the same fucking scumbags. They recruited in two thousand six it's gonna just require such a break with precedent, and such a push against the the economic tides to get everyone out to vote for these stiffs that I just think they're going to come up a little short. So I mentioned the chalk bet, of course, is Democrats retake the House Republicans regain retain control of the Senate. And, you know, the, shall we say most optimistic don't get mad at me is that the Democrats take the house and Senate and Trump and the Republican party are fully repudiated in just toilet tidal wave election, if you want some evidence against how world Isa's if you want to feel counter hell world right now. Keep this in mind. Democrats need to take twenty five seats to win back the house to those special elections in deep blue districts that's already two down to twenty three Pennsylvania by court ordered had all of its districts, and that was very gerrymandered state. Redrawn. Democrats should net about three seats from that right off the bat. No questions asked that brings you down to. Just twenty seats. They have to win New Jersey. These Republicans who voted for the tax Bill, which just fucks everyone's property taxes there by ending the federal deduction for their say property taxes. They're looking at losing three to four seats there that's down to sixteen. Then you have to look at the districts where Republicans national Republicans have just pulled the plug weeks ago. Just cut off all funding that's going to what a half a dozen perhaps up to ten seats. That means that really when you're talking about the racist that will decide this thing where it is. You know, the very large number of raises. We're both parties are competitive, which is perhaps over seventy seats right now. Democrats need about five of that pool to win. So while there is a wide range of possible outcomes where you look at the races that are pretty much done for right now. It's almost certain epidemic rats take back the house. Even if there's a systemic polling error, even if all of these undecided voters break in one direction uniformly across the country, just by sheer numbers. Okay. Well, that's that's one data point to add in the data column. If you're keeping score at home, please please please have your own data notebook on hand for the election night. Livestream by the way, we giving you lots of data too much data to just you know, have unorganized out. I'm going to ask that everyone. Like you're at a baseball game. I want everyone to keep score. You have to have a nice the nice piece of graph paper you need to write the result of every race as it comes in. Because keep in mind that is fundamentally what politics is a game that we want. Is what it is in America. It is a fun distraction away to just sort of get our energy out. And then they keep running things and cooking the another thing. I also wanna point out right now is I don't know if you've been following the New York Times upshot polling have not they do real time polls where you can watch the results come in. It's it's a novelty, it's fine. But benefit here is they've been pulling a wide variety of districts in the country. And what they found is not only are Democrats doing extremely well in places where the national Republicans have caught off the money they have fighting chances in a wide array of red districts, Karen Handel who beat John Ossoff is an even bed at this point Steve king, both she in forts. Yeah. Peter King who's apparently running television ads right now. I was I just saw them on. Hasn't had the campaign in decades. And he's out there like blue-collar concerned about how about Dave brat the tea party here who took down Eric cantor now he's in trouble. And I also love with Dave brat. When he when he took down Eric cantor. Everyone was like this is the real principle debris -tarian conservative as soon as he's under any pressure. Just going full racist against his opponent. Right. Opel? Polls are finding these Republican incumbents in Republican districts that voted for Trump at forty five forty six percent, which as an incumbent. You don't wanna be fifty percent? That's true. And with their democrat opponent pulling about the same amount. Just real quick back to Peter King. I it is incredible. To me to see Peter King political ad on TV because he I mean like. Like, he said funds car his name into that fucking district. You know, like, he just, you know, Pete was here, you know, like X two X dates in the ad that is now playing on on your city, local news and television. He goes as Matt said, I consider myself a blue collar conservative, I understand people need help. Whether it's nine eleven hurricane sandy or MS thirteen. And he was like, honestly, sometimes let's say a nationalist guerrilla movement in a foreign country. Also needs help they need. Sometimes you need some Texan armalite get the Queen out of your country. Yeah. You also have a racist. Like, Chris Collins in upstate New York, congressman who was indicted. He is I think they're both going to win. I think the two indicted Republicans are both gonna win which is I think really funny dog and hundreds interesting one because he is running just an explicit white nationalist race at this point and has sent out mailers saying his opponents a Muslim g is his opponent is Arab. But he is Christian. Yeah. But he's just like look at his name come on straight up his argument, and he's running ads for your work telling you know, I mean, well, that's the other thing is a lot of these California seats Republicans have held them for a long time. But because of changing demographics the on the presidential level. They flip to Hillary Clinton and a number of the like, maybe while there's in California, especially in southern California. A number of them are probably going to flip to the Democrats say Republicans only have what? You can count them on one hand the number of how seats they ever meaning Virgil, obviously been Aurora Becker might lose. There's too too much elections. Go too many. Election when he raises her never ending so many races. What are in your opinion? What are the marquee matchups to watch? Okay. I mean, I I I I still want to come back to this point about the national house raise like there's there's too much to really get into the weeds with these house races. But I think it's hopeful if we have there's an overall theory of what it's going to be, and I think, you know, in two thousand sixteen obviously, the the Democrats Scott owned real bad. And what's different this time around is Hillary Clinton isn't on the ballot. A large number a large number third party votes, right ins and under votes. Trump got forty six percent of the popular vote Ilori only got forty eight. And I think what should give Democrats hope is that in two thousand sixteen Republican House candidates overall three percent more of the vote than the presidential nominee. So a substantial number of people voted for their Republican Gresham candidate, but refused to vote for Donald Trump. And the question I have is do these voters this time around if they're still turned off by Trump, which I think most of them are if you look at his approval rating, do they do the same thing. Do they vote for their local reasonable Republican? Or do they reject the party now and say, all right? I've got a vote for a democrat. And I have a guest there. I really think it's the ladder. There's no question after two years of unified government that the GOP is Trump's party. There's no such thing as never Trump Republican. That's bullshit ally. Hillary Clinton isn't on the ballot anymore, and she's been on television anymore. Running ads saying that Trump isn't a real Republican. That was great. Oh, don't know. You see, it's okay. That I'm going to guarantee that I have Republican congress, and I won't be able to do anything as president. But at least I'm guaranteeing that I beat Trump and remember any never any Republican who didn't hug Trump pretty much got primary doubt. Yeah. And like even the ones in swing states, even in a state that Hillary Clinton one these guys have figured out that oh, my only chance to win here is to hug Trump and get his base to turn out. No, you gotta get the base. So if House Republicans are held to this limit if they got forty six percent of the popular vote Democrats in the neighborhood of fifty four percent, which is in line with most national polling. Democrats would be the overwhelming favourite to win back the house, and I would say at this point the odds of Republicans in the house are lower than the odds of Trump winning a few days out from election day in two thousand sixteen you hear that lives don't draw that warm bath and getting sharpen those razors yet. So what is your favorite race favourite race? Yeah. I don't know if I have a favorite race. The Turks, obviously. Why the great architecture those kebabs the bread they got. Yeah. They love cats. Oh my God. Keti please see that movie. If you're into cats one thing, we can go over, and I think if you want, you know, zoom in on some of these races we go over the Senate. Yes is one of the most brutal Senate naps. Either party is facing decades. Democrats are defending twenty four seats many which are in deep red territory ten of which are in states at Donald Trump won. And this is the class that was elected in two thousand twelve when Obama walked to a convincing reelection victory. And the big story was still these tea party. Fuck up candidates like Todd akin Richard Murdoch who lost races that otherwise probably would have been won by less arrest stuff. Horribly quaint. That you lost your fucking center as for said the stuff about legitimate rape. Or whatever the body has ways at shutting that down. It's like, oh, that's so cute that anyone gave a shit about that. This is a long long ago. Here's the thing this time around Republicans don't have to worry about the tea party anymore because their entire parties consumed by the tea party and white nationalism. So it no longer matters. How insane your candidates are if anything it might be a boon to you? Oh, yeah. Yeah. You get those those Q dip shits who show a all the Trump rallies of the fucking barbecue to vote instead of just tweet. So to win back the Senate. Thanks, Doug, Jones, Democrats to net just two seats and the easiest way to do this. It's the hold all their seats and take two of the four competitive Republicans sees that was the arithmetic in January. It's the arithmetic now. So why don't we start by looking at where Democrats are on the offense? And of course, the big one. How'd y'all Texas Senate race, you'll know this one on the one side? You have beta will work tall toothy woke skateboarding number of the. Tomb gang. And on the other you have this sort of blob fish whose photo you might see an click bait gallery with the caption a housewife found one toilet. The case for Bego is he's outrace cruise by a big margin. He feels an army of canvassers over ten thousand campaign claims and that he's recognizable as a human being. And that's rapidly growing more diverse, but here's the case against and it's pretty heavy case, Texas has an elected democrat Senator thirty years Trump on the state by less than Romney. But he won convincingly nonetheless with fifty two percent of the vote cruises leading every poll since mid-september all been putting up numbers above fifty percent. Which is where he wants to be in aggregate the bull show. He has consistently the neighborhood of forty eight percent. And despite his versity, Texas, still very red state groups and beta of the unified vote of their respective parties. But guess which parties basis just bigger exercise has a lot of Latino voters. But a lot of them are basically just country club Republicans, and the sort of habitual non voters that theoretically put bait over the top are kept disenfranchised by Texas's Jim crow style laws where this real if you're a community organizer who wants to register other people. To vote you have to be deputized. And in any county that you you were telling me in Texas like you have to get state approval to raise a posse. Yes. Basically raise a vote in posse. Yes. Bam big government. But the X factor here is that there's been a surge in early voting in Texas Hispanic voters are up to one hundred percent over two thousand fourteen voters under thirty are up five hundred percent fourteen and the early vote, and this is shocking to me the early vote in Texas. Biggest counties is currently above the total vote that's election day in early vote combined in those counties in two thousand fourteen more people have voted so far with a few days out from election day, then they voted total for your conventional wisdom holds that early. Voting fate always favors. Democrats are the more. It depends on the state because in some states Republicans have more disciplined you early voting operations. Normally Democrats do well in the early. Vote in person voting but Republicans do well in the mail ballots for me personally, Beethoven versus Ted is the most exciting race. That's going on right now. It's you know. I think I mean, I think cruise is going to win. So I'm not trying to like, I really don't want to get my hopes up about this. But like again standard qualified caveat that if beta wins, he's going to be normal milk, toast, democrat, we don't you don't you don't have to expect like, you know, he's not going to build socialism in Texas. But he's. Space as gonna guillotine the people you don't like his he's he's gonna make gritty the new sheriff of Texas, the new he's going to be greedy, the head of the Texas Rangers. But honestly like for me, personally, if I lived in Texas, I I would vote for Bego, of course. Because you might get to see Ted Cruz each shit and who want to see that. He's just everything everything else way, you feel about like voting or electoralism of the Democratic Party aside as we said before when it comes to you buying our book or doing anything politically spite is a perfectly good motivation one hundred sorry someone like Ted Cruz. Like beta is the lesser evil. I'm sorry really is like the thing is he wasn't fucking born from a meteorite, even if the battle is a median candidate. I would argue that the median democratic candidate today is way better than the meeting democratic candidate four years ago or any previous cycle. I mean, I think the median candidate actually has has signed on for Medicare for all on paper. I would actually agree with that the positions of this class of candidates is is well to the left of even the most recent cycle. But I just I have very little faith that it would actually. It would actually mean anything once the rubber hits the road, and they're actually, and that's really the thing. And you know, funnily enough earlier this week, I saw a friend of the show near tannin sound off about candidates supporting Medicare for all saying, let's just see who wins and who loses like Nira tendon tendon, which you know. That's that's great that your politics is just just craven fear of. Tiny sliver of voter who probably hates you anyway. But the thing is this isn't the real Medicare for all fight. It's easy to say you support because nobody knows what that means. There isn't a fucking Bill. There's the terrorist companies haven't plowed money into this fight yet. And it's still a glimmer in Bernie's I by the way on Tuesday night on the election stream. I'm not sure about that in virtual, but I can promise anyone watching. I will be gone off that Molly off those ends feeling like white Nira. Easy enough. And I do and this is also an aside. I think we should take us little victory lap. Because I read the other week that in the in the swing districts counting up the democratic TV ads. Nearly fifty percent are about healthcare. And what percentage is about Russia? Yeah. That's true. And well that has been the achilles heel for Republicans because they could run on the economy and a lot of people are sort of baffled. Why the running on MS thirteen and hysteria when they could be running on the good economy. And it's because if it's bread and butter election, the economy is honestly, kind of an abstract concept, whereas they are literally trying to strip people with preexisting conditions of healthcare in the moment. Their healthcare votes are noxious. If people know what they are. They're against them. Fucking dumb ass. Turtle man. Mitch McConnell two weeks ago. Just says wall, which we're regarding a hell of a deficit here. All over sub. I wonder how. That happen. We're gonna have to take care of that by cutting some sort of Medicare which made it into every fucking have fucking democratic candidate. Yes. And I think I'm sorry. If Russia is this excess -sential issue for our fucking. So you'd think they'd be spending more than one percent of their adn talking about. Yeah. I think everyone God bless them. This is the thing we were saying they were going to run on Russia and just because they're not that incompetent or that delusional. They realized it wasn't a winner at some point and dropped at which is very good. But back to Texas he'd have my support to because he skateboards it's like voting for Bart Simpson. It's cool. I think the main question about Bego, crews Bego would or wouldn't. Yeah. Would would he's he's he's ready. That we never hear more than anything east hall. You know, and that's comforting. Yeah. I think honestly. And man, I saw on TV the other day. I realize if he were in like tall. Nobody would give a shit about it. It's true. If there weren't that like physical contrast between Ted Cruz American presidents almost always over six feet tall, Richard. There you go. We haven't had a man with president since Madison. That's a man Bloomberg. Is that God is Michael Bloomberg's music is that the lollipop soundtrack. I hear coming through. If he were manly. If you're built like a spark plug every nobody would care or if he was perfectly round, the one last thing, you know, those numbers are pretty shocking about the early vote here, and it still is worth noting. I'm sure the early vote is also pretty pretty strong in these white more rural in Republican areas to it's definitely going to be a base election. Republicans are going to vote because guess what they always do that. That's their fucking hobby baseball in voting just like that. So it's so there is a question is that early vote, which is demographics are very good for Democrats is that just cannibalizing their election day. See that's what I don't know. That's what I wonder is that they might have just shot. Their wa it's why you can't read that much into it because you really willing to look good for Hillary last time around true, if you wanna believe certain polls, some of them do have, you know, beta hasn't lead, but they still have them down by just three percent like forty nine forty six. That's still a ring or baby. There's enough poll to that cruise just has a lead. But just he's it's one systemic polling error from a work winning. See that's the thing is the is the stomach issue is that because we talked about this polling is dependent. It's not like you can call anybody all day. You don't have a poll until you have a likely voter screen. That's what makes legible and that is basically as much as they want to say, it's empirical a largely guess you'd guessing who the likely voter. Even the most modern polling outfits and data shops still. Have not penetrated even slightly Snapchat or fete life. I mean, I cannot take anything seriously until we get the dungeon. Daddy, swing swing or hot wife demographic keep this on my Nate Cohn. A New York Times said looking at the early voting data that he feels very very good about the likely voter screen that they've been employing at their New York Times upshot polls and the most recent road in taxes showed overall down by like eight nine ten but other polls do have it a tighter race. So what's the what do you think? Probably gonna win. Yeah. Yeah. Gotta say Cruz. I would love to be like we were so wrong about this one. You know, I feel so ashamed to predict all of these. But I mean cruises. I I think it's going to be basically Trump's margin again like you'll get fifty one fifty two percent of the vote pretty tight. We're not watching that except that victory speech, by the way, we are. It's going to be it's going to be on the Twitter stream. It's it's we're gonna play like horror video games gusting both slug man Leon Tennessee Senate race. This is an open seat currently filled by the retiring. Bob corker hashtag, resistance hero congresswoman, Marsha Blackburn is Republican nominee. She's hated by members of her own party and the way cruises corker himself, and the GOP governor has refused to say if they voted for her, but I believe they both endorse there. So it's all a sham. Former governor Phil Bredesen's the democrat. He's southern century of some sort, right? He really hates deficits. He's promise. To go to Washington to balance the budget and other classic deficit race. And that's also a good contrast because Tennessee, Texas, both red states, obviously, Tennessee, the guys tack is, you know, role of sleaze both I both sides reach across the aisle deficit shed and bagel. Roy is like no fuck it. I'm just gonna play to my base. Yeah. But you know, he feel about us in he like in terms of reaching cross the aisle. He went the extra mile here releasing a statement after the cavenaugh hearing saying he would vote to confirm amazing that you don't have to do. I don't have to do that. What he did not have to do that. He pissed off the own people volunteering for his campaign press support you anymore. I believe his fundraising just dried up after that to you like he was difficulty impacted idiot moon, devil's triangle triangle because anyone who wants Cavanaugh to be on the supreme court. We'll just vote for the party that would fucking sin firm. It might take a chance just, you know, get the person, you know, would vote for we all. At the end of casino. Why take a chance? Susan Collins saying in two thousand sixteen you know, oh, I could vote for garland. Well, it doesn't fucking matter because he's not even coming up for fucking hearing. Yeah. Trumbull in this state by two to one nearly two to one. And while the race was tight as recently, September Blackburn is open to lead in the past couple of weeks, anywhere. Four to ten percent. Yeah. I know that fucking bitch is going down. Phil Bredesen retire. Literally dig your own grave crawl into would you? Volunteer prediction for the volunteers Stein about this race. I followed. None of it at all. I was say as I was worried for a second there that Matt called Marsha Blackburn and old bitch. No, no, no. I know that. That is absolutely. I mean, I I, you know, I think this is just you know, Tennessee Republicans gonna win. Yeah. Oh, I'm going to agree with that. But here's some more fertile ground for the Democrats going into the two races that we're always going to be the ones in their narrow pilots of the majority that they would absolutely win. Arizona. Senate race another hashtag resistance hero. Jeff lake retiring Arizona would have to open seats, by the way, if the resistance Demi or John McCain had retired when he was dying of cancer when he still fucking held that seat while he was in a fucking hospital bed and could not vote. So instead is he will be held by an opponent Republican will vote for everything. Trump wants for the next two years. Hello resistance. God. It's so fucking prints the world instead. So there's one race. Martha mcsally is the Republican. She was the first female fighter pilot to fly in combat. So she has a few of the bomber pilot every pilot. She says fighter apply. But apparently it was a bomber stealing maverick valor guys with the stupid hats with all the fucking. Golden laurels all mad at her for that. Is he is she I didn't know that McGrath. I believe the first lady fighter pilot, Martha mcsally killed a bunch of hajjis, very high. Fun. Katie ratio is off the charts. Well, if you're a bomber that is. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Very high will. Mm surpassed butter opponent. Kristen cinema. Also has a high woke score, she's bisexual. She used to be a green party activists and anarchists against the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, she handed out leaflets, depicting, Uncle Sam. And a US soldier is skeletons with the caption, you can help us push back US terror in Iraq in the Middle East. In other words, she used to be cool. See Kristen cinnamon is honestly, one of the more interesting characters all politics right now because he's sort of like came out of this like occupy enter kissed where she was literally like on that like America ca K Bush hits frigging blam stir dice and like, but like since then has gotten significantly worse. She's like a huge saw all even socially conservative. But she's very considering. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I don't get mad at me. Not exactly a check in the pro column for being an anarchist or involved in Occupy Wall street. It's a mixed record at best. I think I mean, it's better than the current cinema after she was elected to the US house. She discovered something even cooler than anti-imperialism reaching across the island finding common ground reduce the deficit. We're I had was about the deficit if featured like skeletons coming out of a grave and like clawing for fresh bodies in meat, but instead of America KK soldiers, it was, you know, entitlement spending. She's a blue dog as you said, which is the thing that went under percent should no longer exists. She's a new democrat. And she's a member of some fucking thing called the problem solvers. I think which is like a bipartisan caucus, but in my mind, it's just like peop- folks who meet up and do puzzles together. Exactly. That'd be a door. Exactly as effective as when Tracy genyk chrome, the problem solvers on thirty rock and get as much done. Here's the thing. I don't really think you have to be this right wing to win a democrat in Arizona. Trump got forty nine percent of the vote there flake himself was only elected by about three percent of the votes. Most people don't care about the fucking still healing for the for the hippie shit. By MC Sally, all MC. Sally's ads are all about how she's she was America hippie. Yes. No MC Sally runs. These ads showing Krista cinema wearing a pink to to protesting the war contracting with her just showing a different kind of skeleton skeletons. She fucking racked up. So it's like she gets. So cinema gets the worst of both worlds. The progressives are fucking hater. And don't trust her. And everyone else thinks he's still the the fucking two thousand two cinema. Perfect best best way to do it. Despite that she's neck and neck with Nick Sally. She's treating leads of a few points with each polls. She probably still has the edge here. But it really depends which polls you wanna believe I think she's gonna win. Actually, I think cinema win. I mean, does this entangle two things I in this race endorse writing in two thousand and two Chris. When that would be my vote, but I also agree. I actually think she's going to edge it out just because of how poorly relatively Trump did in. This will again, I'm going to follow your guys lead on this one. I'm gonna say Chris the gets it and is worth voting for just based on bisexual awareness and visibility alone. Of course, we'll try to have it both ways. Nevada Senate race the last one probably the most vulnerable GOP held seat in a state that went for Hillary Clinton state. Obama won twice where Harry Reid masterminded his own tough reelection during the tea party wave your of twenty tax zone candidate poll showed showed he was toast. But he stuck it out and won convincingly picked his own opponent is amazing. He picked his own opponent and he built his turnout machine. Split. Here's the thing. Senator dean Heller is very much. So in this one. The polls are all over the map, but Nevada's a tough state to pull Harry Reid built that turnout machine. Getting these union workers in the hospitality industry in Clark county to the polls culinary workers. Local two to six holler back y'all delivering the state Hillary by just a couple of points. When in my mind, she otherwise would have lost if it hadn't been for that disciplined turnout operation, but these elections tend to be close in Nevada and the democrat Jackie Rosen hasn't locked up Latino voters to the extent that she probably needs to win Heller spent the past couple of years fighting for a chunk of this constituency helped by the popular Latino Republican. Governor Brian Sandoval one poll showed Heller up by like eight points. And everyone got mad at it. Other polls show Rosina up. But is that is I gotta say he when they did the woman bomber care phone. I thought Taylor was toast. And the fact that he's still in it is just proof of more proof of democratic incompetent. This was the race that he's an incumbent Senator. So they're gonna you know, stick with an incumbent and the recent everyone knew was on the table for years, if I'm going to hold true to my half troll posture that the Republicans will hold the house. I if that were to happen that in the world where that happens, then Heller wins. So I'm gonna say Heller Heller hilariously holds on in this one that you want to roll the dice. Here's what I'm going to say about this race, very tight. You know, hard to say what's going to happen. However, what I do know we'll be crucial is where the support of Las Vegas based small business. Western stage props as western stage profit goes so goes, the state of Nevada of what is what is their support? I believe President Mubarak. I'm going to say. Say democrat wins. Okay. All right. I'm going to say, I think that there's a lot of durability to Harry Reid's turnout machine. I remember him from like every right wing Meam not saying that he's stupid. But saying that he scary hilarious. So Larry read ironically, he is a piece of shit, but I miss him. I mean compared to shock Schumer give me a break. But you know, if if rows and wins, though, it'll be those fucking culinary workers. It'll be those union people doing it based on my predictions, if they win to those, and again, I think betas was very much so still in this and could really surprise people on election day, if they win three that would be enough if they can hold all the following seats. You have the deep red state senators Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly, Indiana, Claire mccaskill Missouri and Jon tester in Montana. These are all states that went for Trump by double digits. He won by over forty percent in West Virginia alone, Hillary Clinton, God something in the neighborhood of twenty six percents home. And this is a safe that Bill Clinton won. But fortunately for mansion, that's the say, we're probably probably have the weakest candidate the state attorney general whose wife is a lobbyist who promised to stop lobbying. If he wins could've been fucking Blankenship. I'm still pissed that we didn't get blankets ship in their mansion who voted for Cavin on really sucks has led in every single nonpartisan bowl in this race. And he remains personally popular, they're probably having built his reputation as governor during the sale mind is Aster, he'll win that one to me is a no-brainer mansions got that one locked up. I would say, you know, mansions in the driver's seat. But you never know his opponents get out the vote operation in which they bus potential mentioned voters to the bottom of a mine, and then blow it up you never you never know what could happen there. I just want to know who Boyd Crowder's supporting I know, he's from Kentucky. But the right next to each other interesting Blankenship has attempted to get on the ballot. But I believe. And he didn't win with his slogan. He killed my Ma he killed my pop, but I will vote for him. What the fuck I'm gonna agree mansion in Montana. Jon tester was elected in the Blue Wave of oh six he held a seat in a tough race in two thousand twelve you also then every nonpartisan bowl, but light West Virginia. Now, don't always by huge margin. He's a farmer and butcher. He brings his own meat to Washington. He lost three fingers in a meat grinder accident he wears a crew cut. And maybe it's cool off on the meat, then he costing your own crew cut and a flannel shirt that's eight a Montana's. I'm a big old flight. Tester is I just from the fact that I haven't heard a lot about the race tells me that he seems to be in the driver's seat there. I think he's gonna win and also in a red state vote against cavenaugh without very much that was pretty impressive. Like, it wasn't even really ever. Even the suspense thing. He just was like, no, I'm not voting for him. And this is as well as state where Greg Jian Ford is in trouble and truly even under fifty percent. Yeah. So I think say I would make my judgment based on my limited experience with the state of Montana. I think the crucial issue that based on the sort of straw poll of bumper stickers. I saw driving around that state. The most crucial issue in Montana is how many wolves are legally allowed to kill some people were very very angry that they're not allowed to kill more wolves some people want to say the wolves. But honestly, the kill the wolves vote is much bigger in Montana. I don't think anyone supports not killing wolves. Yeah. Now, let's run. Friend of the wolf in Montana. Oh, yeah. No. You gotta if you wanna win you gotta play the game. A child that's will get reelected, then he will not serve out his term because he will choke to death at Ruth's, Chris. I I think tester wins and a few months into his term falls into a week thrashing. Or eaten by wolves? Carried away by wolves ultimate just this. More of them say we need a new standard. When gauging these senators, and it's the rand Paul standard. Whether this center is more likely to get beat up either neighbor or more likely to just freak out and just start wailing on tester. One hundred percent would beat up his name. Oh, no. Yeah. He would like a camel clutch power bomb. He would destroy them moving on Indiana. Some polls show Donnelly up by three other show. Mike Braun up. I three there's a big vote for the libertarian candidates something that might very well and end up bailing Donnelly out the raises of all the accusations of outsourcing, both of the candidates are private businessmen. Donald calls us opponent China. Mike, the Republicans call him Mexico. Joe? God. I love him on is. We'll so hard Indiana is a is a hellish place. Oh, it's one of the worst states. We've got Donnelley's an accidental Senator he mostly sucks bad, for instance. He supports the border wall. But I think a credible argument can be made that he can stick it out. Now, I think Donald is gonna win too. It's tough for me to say. But I would I'd say Donnelly, what did you think? Well, I'm going to go the other guy just to be contrarian. What's his name? Mike Braun, a Mexico. Mike skill Mexico, China China, Mike because I like that name because it's like China white Chinatown. He's he's got that. Good ship. Yeah. China white Tom Janis going down China. Mike is gonna win this one in Missouri. Republicans got the candidate they want Josh Holly, telegenic young attorney general who led Yale's federalist society during law school sounds like a cool. Heard by all the major blocks of the GOP from Clinton growth to the maga-. I not kidding. I've seen that as a sound effect. I did just throw up. Commitment to the bit. But here's the thing about Josh. He's lazy. He pissed off members of his own party by skipping born events like the Lincoln day dinner in his own home county is fundraising as a third of mccaskill earlier this year instead of campaigning. He posted Instagram videos of himself lifting weights at the gym. He's he's got Felix vote. I assume feel experience. Ultimately praising him or criticizing his form in saying things that I just don't understand. He's also been photographed skipping work to buy why in the middle of the afternoon, he's famously a fan of wine. Well, I mean, I enjoy it as well. I you know, what he's not gonna win because this is not the kind of country that rewards untitled, titled lazy Ivy league shithead with high position of power in the government. We that is not an American tradition. No, of course, doing irony. And that's why he will win mccafe's goes cooked and good riddance. She sucks she does. I love I love mccaskill as of late was like being being interviewed. And there were like, you know. So so what do you do in this Halloween? And she was like, I don't know. Whatever Bernie Sanders and AO see isn't doing there were like, wait a second. We weren't asking about the brought up Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, I that one of them she brought up burning like an interview she brought up Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren unbidden like in response to like some fluff question about. Yeah. Yeah. Always Bernie Sanders. Dressing is a ghost while on going to be a Dracula. No, she. Yeah. She's running right hard. She's gonna eat shit, which is hilarious. Good riddance to her. She's all nonpartisan polls show. This race is a dead heat. But she is beneath the magic fifty percent Bart. Last time around though, most polls had are up by about four to six against hot ache and the run up to the election. She run that race by fifteen points. I mean, keeping on she was given the absolute gifts of Todd. And that was at a time when things didn't happen all the time. Like one thing happened to week. And the one thing was him saying that about the rape now that wouldn't make it in the morning wouldn't make it to the evening news in my mind. This is the toughest call because misery is hell world central. It is the crossroads of the hell world that is merica. Oh, no. Yeah. It's right in the middle there. Just the separating asshole throbbing hemorrhoids will but just sucking us into the inferno. It honestly could go either way. But I'm gonna give the tiebreaker to the fact that it. Is a wave year. And I'm gonna say she eats it out. Okay. She's rewarded for being absolute peace ship and then North Dakota. That's the sad. One. Republicans have Kevin Kramer, the state's congressman for few years. Now who's asking for a promotion saying he's done a good job, and he's earned it. It's not a bad pitch in this genteel state also helping him as a Republican legislators naked attempt to disenfranchise the over thirty thousand eligible native American voters in the state their new voter ID law. Requires anyone who shows up to present an ID with their home address on it. The problem is many of these reservations people don't have home addresses. They get their mail through PO boxes, which are on their ID. And explicitly cannot be used to prove your residency as many as five thousand voters. They estimate fall into this category. Last time she won by around three thousand votes, and this is the kind of shit. That's I think going to be it's going to determine more racist than you'd want. A few community groups are engaging in frankly heroin round, the clock efforts to get ID's today to voters and a big part of this is figuring out where they live in places. That have long not had house numbers. The government of the state said you can get your house number by calling the local sheriff. This is true in the end love talking to the sheriff in the end might be for nut disenfranchisement or not hiking hasn't lead in any poll for months and she's currently down in the neighborhood of ten points. Done for. I think that's it. That's the one they lose. They lose Cam for sure New Jersey, though. Second failures one five canonical. But also I will Bob Menendez. This one is so fucking good percents stem to stirred democrat fuck up coming down to the fact that Menendez only guy the Senate for being appointed to finish fucking Lautenberg stir. He never even won an election in its own, right? And yet they stuck with him this corrupt pizza gate depraved psychopath, and like, you know, stepped on actual progressive challenger, right? I mean, they didn't they never Gorgan is any kind of meaningful opposition to them, which is just more more calendar. Really take off in a big part is because. Yeah. New Jersey, the Democratic Party is very much so tightly controlled machine, and they raise you out. Candidate end as literally knows where bodies are as in actual bodies in actual holes in the ground in the pine Barrens. You know, like he's he has fucking geo location for them. And they're like, we're not we're gonna we're not. We'd rather him go down then fuck with him and have him decided to blow up our sponsor only leaving aside. His, you know, fun nece for pizza, shall we say? And the fact that I mean, the dude, you know, credibly accused of sleeping with underage prostitutes on these political junkets is leaving that aside. One of the absolute most basement dwelling shittiest Democrats in existence awful. He is one of the eight one of apex. Most reliable fucking men on the hill. Bob Menendez a piece of shit and that his unrivalled still in the Senate because he narrowly escaped conviction on a bunch of fraud charges. And it's like it might have been good enough for the fucking jury, Bob, but that's not the same as people who are just gonna. Be voting for now as of late like my favorite thing to watch on TV is local news and here in New York City. If you watch like the local or evening news, every single commercial is a political ad and half of those ads are either for Hugh, Geoghegan or form an end does and Hugh gain has been running ads on Menendez. They're going hard on this underage prostitution thing. And I think my favorite political editor the year is a Bob Hyuganada that features. It begins with a mother watching television with Harvey Weinstein on it in like grainy scary footage, and she's just like then she's reading on the ipad, like the Justice department documents that outline the allegations that Bob Menendez slept with underage prostitutes. And she's reading these lurid allegations next to a crib with an infant her infant daughter who has a little bow girl. And she she's like I can't live in my Braves my daughter in a world where Bob Menendez said like explicitly then like you can see Bob Menendez face on. On the ipad like hovering over this. This this end Djelic child. Yeah. So Bob Hubin, by the way, the response to that ad. We've also been seeing is a Senate. Hey, the Senate fifty one votes you want the Senate, you know, honestly, not a bad counterargument beyond. He might actually hilariously pull it off. The there was a poll today. He's up by eight points. He most some full show a big lead others having a bit tighter. But it's owning him. I haven't seen everyone. He's leading. Every this race is really the vote for the creep. It's important. Yeah. Now he'll win. And it'll be hilarious. Just this disgusting pond. Scum piece of ship. Just losing all over the Senate. Yeah. Menendez. Wretched institutions the United States Senate, honestly, one of the. This one more Senate MD stern scumbags. One more Senate race of note. And also in a big state that has a governor's race. I'm talking about Florida where longtime income and build that will send the only statewide democratic officeholder is being challenged by governor Rick Scott, who's more than healthcare company the frosted Medicare and had to pay settlements adding up to two billion dollars. That's another non-human looking motherfucker, very nice. That guy is just just like a grub worm with a face. Rick Scott is spending a shitload of his own money. And it is correct. His money he stole from Kate. It really does amaze me that this guy who defrauded Medicare in a state with so many fucking senior citizens managed to win. There piggies their little suckling, hog Litz. And they just love it. They love it. They love getting pissed in their mouths everything shows that this race is close. It's tighter than New Jersey's race. I think Nelson consistently has a lead of a couple points. But it's so hard to say because frankly, presidential candidates never win Florida by a big margin, as you know, and Rick Scott has never won the state by a big margin both times, very, very slim. I think Andrew gillum is going to drag Nelson's bloated corpse across the finish. That's the other race. And I actually agree with that. And I would say Nelson winds solely because of the excitement about Andrew gillum, which is hilarious. Because he's I mean, he's hilariously tack to the center after he got nominated, which is just hilarious. Like he starts talking about how we need to fight Venezuela. As governor of Florida. This is very crucial feeding stack I'm Chevy's mo-. I don't think he's tagged that far to the center, but he is very much. So talking about all the Latin American left is he doesn't like tax to the center for sure and set a bunch of incredibly embarrassing things in my opinion. However, tweeting is how center I mean is he spending ten million dollars in ads about fucking? However, what I will say about Gillam is that he has demonstrated since then in particularly in his debates with Rhonda Santa's discuss, oh, just an absolute crave. Just just pure Trump. Like, you know, Trump. Yeah. Yeah. I wanna say is like Gillam has. I think shown like the way for new democratic candidates to talk about Republicans. Yeah. Like eat like he is. He's going right at Ron Disentis. And you know, he owned him pretty hard in those debates around us and is in bed with races probably racist himself and running racist ads and running basically a racist campaign from top to bottom which in a red wave year would probably be enough to bring them over the finish line. Absolutely. He's also kind of a Radic he's doing the Trump thing. But he's not as good as Trump. Yeah. Well, that's the thing is there's all these guys trying to be they're local version of Trump, and they are world famous TV oaths there just some local car salesman shit, and they also and I forget who pointed this out a recent article that was Tom Scotia. He these guys who pretend to be Trump they freak out when they get backlash for saying Trump things, and obviously Trump has, you know, consciousness at all he has no. Inner monologue or anything. So you would never catch him apologizing for something. He only did once he's given one apology in his life. And it's because everyone told him to do it the access Hollywood tape, right? He's just like look room, talk, whatever. Yeah. Right, right. After that. If you remember that correctly like releases in the middle of the night is just him talking about looks like an empty row God, I Iran. Guy pointing a gun to his head off of screen. And then, you know, right? If this like a forced confession. And then you know, like the next day. He's just right back at a rally. So he was locker room talk. Yeah. That's it. Doesn't mean anything guy like the scientists you hit them with something. And he's like a say he's caught. But the moderating a racist Facebook page or something and he says out and says, oh, no, I don't support racists, just wetland blinks like a fucking squid monster Lou. I'm sorry this. I mean to say they said one good thing, and that was utterly humiliate. Adam Putnam who is this? Famously called Howdy Doody looking motherfucker by one of his colleagues on the house floor, and this guy who's been like, you know, definitely trying to be governor of Florida his entire life. Worked his way up became a secretary of agriculture and just totally got owned in the primary by the screaming guy who said that Trump endorsed him. That's it. Icee both gillum and Nelson win. I'm gonna go the opposite direction. Just based on my conception of Florida as probably top three. Maybe if not number one most cursed apocalyptic state in America that only nothing bad. Nothing. Good ever comes out of Florida. Except for one thing. I can think of it could be. I mean, the only thing that the thing about the Gillam race is he has led in every nonpartisan poll, but it's always been a tight margin, which makes sense because it's going to be a tight about or what? But like weeding in every poll that's by like two to four percent. I mean that's consistent enough that he has a durable lead in this race. Of course, the flip side could be true with Ted Cruz, and there's always a little bit of uncertainty there. Could there be something like a Bradley effect? Yes. We'll see. It's just before we finished with the Senate. It should be noted. The reason we're not talking about them when after Trump won. There was a mini freak out because there are a bunch of a mid western. Democrats are going to be up in two thousand eighteen in states that Trump had one and people were thinking, oh, no this like real line and all those people are clo- car Baldwin stabbing. Now cruising to reelection not into question. Yeah. No question about the Minnesota races or the Wisconsin race or the Michigan race right now. Of course, there's always an outside chance of an upset. But it looks. It looks pretty good for them. And you know, as we close the door on the sun at the one thing is this is a midterm year with an unpopular president of the other party. And it's a really tough map for the Democrats. And you kind of have to think this is this is really the only circumstance where people like mccaskill and test drive a fighting chance. Yeah. Maybe get them across the finish line. And you know, right now, we'd looks like I don't want to say Democrats have thrown thrown in the towel. I think if one race out of by predictions goes the other way, they win back the Senate. But I think they're feeling pretty good about keeping it to a fifty one forty nine margin or thereabouts going into. In the next cycle. I agree with that. Especially if they went back to the house, which is really, that's you know, that's what you need to put a check on the president. Yeah. Sort of I as you'd rather have the Senate because then you have the Senate. I mean, it's harder to to do things in the Senate by that could potentially. Stymie these judicial like when Ruth Bader Ginsburg just flows away on a on a on a on a strong gust of wind into the ocean. It'd be nice to have a democratic when when thin does gets his Infinity goblet and makes all the democratic of all the non Google votes on the supreme court, just disappear. But let's talk about the governor's racist. Then those are overweight going to garner you. So they said at the top of this you elected governor today in many of these states, they're going to have veto power over redistricting. When that happens after the twenty twenty cents is that's pretty important. And this is an interesting story with the governor's race overall. Which is that in these deep red states democratic gubernatorial nominees have real fighting chance. But on the flip side in these deep, blue states, Republican governor incumbents are sailing to reelection in Massachusetts in Maryland in Bernie's home state of Vermont. These governors who are Republicans have very high approval ratings, and you know, maybe they get washed out in a wave. Maybe these polls are kind of off. But I don't see that happening. Take a Larry HOGAN in Maryland, where polls show that likely democratic voters have a positive view of their fucking Republican governor. Well, I mean part of it is is that these are affluent states, and they don't really have an ideological opposition to quote, unquote, moderate republicanism really at all they just don't like Trump. But I think what's notable is you've got like those three blue state. Republican governors are all going to win easily. Meanwhile, Bruce Rauner in Illinois is going to get his ass kicked by a guy who might go to jail during his term because Bruce Rauner spent his term fighting. This is the tooth and nail budget battle with the democratic legislature there and just tried to do this like scorched-earth thing. Meanwhile, in in Massachusetts with with Barker and HOGAN, those guys basically kind of they play ball. And as a result, they had they get this patina of bipartisan sort of common sense across the runner. He's like a very right wing guy. And he's and Pritzker is spent the most believe out of pocket of any candidate in the country's history. Well, in excess of I want to say one hundred forty million is is governor race. And it's Felix said shittiest job looks said he spent one hundred and forty million dollars. So what he gets like a high school named after him one job? Ungovernable Felix isn't here right now. But I got to bring it up because I know this is Felix his favorite thing. Rounders? Did you see the photo of him recently? We're in the biker cut no rally with like a sons of anarchy like biker leather vests like a cut that was. Covered in patch. I did see one of the patches just said governor on it and the other patch. I swear to God look this up. Well, we are we should make this the episode art he had a bikers against child abuse. Patch? Yes. They patched him in all my fiance. John. You hear a sound of thunder in the distance. You're a child being abused? What's that? It's governor around or kicking down the door and save you here. It's okay. No. We didn't put that on. Oh, damn we should just Google bikers. Child abuse. You hear a rumble in the distance? You're abusing a state pension plan funded. You look up from what you're doing around her and Pritzker both absolute goof-balls. But these these these the trio of northeastern mid Atlantic Republican governors with high approval ratings that to be credible evidence that Trump despite you know, his popularity with the base and riling up. The hogs is fundamentally a drag on the Republican party because I think any other type of Republican based on the economic indicators would have a brute rating in excess of sixty percent right now only he didn't win Hilary lost. And that's a fundamental reality that I think a lot of people having absorbed. I do want the northeastern rubbing his win, particularly in Vermont where the first transgender major party candidate is challenging the Republican governor. Well, yeah. Well, I mean, it'd be nice. But it sounds like it's not gonna happen. But again on the flip side, you have these red states where Democrats are running Rewell and you want to talk about the Georgia. Governors decided Bego and cruise the Georgia governor's race is the one I'm most interested in closest attention to. I know you're one Matt mine won the Georgia governor's race is as I last read a dead heat bed. He absolute dead heat. And I mean to me like the most interesting thing is the fact that the Republican governor is also the secretary of state in charge of these elections and the voter suppression tactics they're doing right now in Georgia are insane. And just straight out of like, you know, the nights this Jim crow crow all over again. This is one hundred percent. I mean camp has like been on tape Rolling Stone. At this saying, you know, a big problem for us is turnout. The other side's turn out, and if everyone exercises, you know, their right to vote it'll be a problem for us. And the this is this race is one hundred percent about the suppression of the black vote in a state where it is thirty two percent African American. Yeah. And that's why I gotta say a tie goes to the guy who literally counts the votes. It doesn't matter who does the votes a matters. Who counts the votes that? He literally is the guy county without so you have that voter suppression there, but it hasn't dampened the enthusiasm of democratic odor. Was there Oprah did a whole thing for this weekend or yesterday much like you saw in Texas in Georgia? There is shocking levels of enthusiasm from traditional democratic voting. Blocks is seen footage of people waiting in the rain for hours, not just vote by too early votes. Lakes. You have to wait for hours to vote this fucking country. You couldn't I mean waiting to early vote when you buy like you like any normally you would you would go see this long line and be like fuck it. I'll just come back and election day or something and failed state as well. State abrahams. If she wins will be the first African American woman, ever elected governor in the United States. Yeah. But like I said, I just I don't think this is on the structural. I mean, again, this is like with beta like, heart and mind, like, I'm I'm rooting for Abrahams so much in this one, but it's very hard for me to like get my heart over the hurdle of just how wretched state Georgia's and the camp and the people who run it, I will with my heart. I'll say Abrahams wins. Okay. Why not? Why not in Georgia Hillary did decently in Georgia compared to to Brock Obama, which is pretty interesting. If you think about it because it has a very, you know, relatively large African American population. So I do think like the Georgia purple ink blooming thing is real and in a wave election. Sure. Why not? I mean, could it be very close to the point that Kemp just monkeys around with the fucking results yet? Good. I someone else said this on Twitter. But I think it's so awful. It's going to happen camp. Kim wins an incredibly narrow race where the results are challenged. They go into court, and then Brett cavenaugh provides the the siding vote to certify his election. But here's the x factor. Here's the extra after Georgia has runoffs if nobody gets fifty percent of the vote it goes to a runoff. That's right. If you remember happened in two thousand eight in the Senate race that actually would have given the Democrats a sixty vote supermajority in the Senate. They fucking punted. They did Barack Obama pointedly did not. Go there to candidate guy. No money. Nobody gave a shit. It was amazing because and maybe it was amazing that this guy Jim Martin got so close to winning Obama did not go there because he thought it was important to bring the country together more important than. Cluster proof majority in the United States. Kidding? Whoops. Whoops, drama Obama, ladies and gentlemen. But you wanna talk about voter suppression. Chris Kobe is running for governor of Kansas secretary of state and also pretty much just charged with for. He was his primary went to a recount, and you who was he was in charge of it loops and he decided he won. So I think that's just going to be a recount or a replay. And crisco Bach is the brains, and I'm using that in scare quotes behind every like he is like the guy who is like the Trump's pitch man on a national level for every for the just hokum utterly spurious idea that legal immigrants are voting or dead people. He is the GOP's resident voter fraud read voter suppression and odor is the Lyle landlady of voter suppression. He literally goes around to towns, and and and pitches them on passing very restrictive voting rules that he says, yes, they're going to get challenged in court. And then these towns, they passed the bills, and then they spend thousands or millions of dollars in courts defending them, then they're overturned and he's out of there. Okay. He's like selling fucking voter suppression too. Not every. By kansas. What's the matter with Kansas? Chris Kobe most recent poll from Emerson college crisco back forty four percent, lower Kelly democrat, forty three percents. It's a dead heat in that race. The x factor is Greg Orman. You remember that guy from last time around he ran for the Senate. He was an independent candidate. And the Democrats dropped out of the race. Because they thought he was the only guy who could possibly win that Senate race. Well, he lost. But now he's backed run as an independent candidates. And at least one bowl shows that if he weren't there lower Kelly would be leading the race. Yeah. I gotta go tie goes to the guy in charge of counting the votes and making the votes. Yeah. I'll flip it to and say that comeback wins. How about you will Kovac wins too much of a prick not too? But there's also surprisingly close races in places as red as fucking Oklahoma. If you remember in Oklahoma, they fucked up the budget so fucking bad that they have to eliminate one week of the fucking schooled with. Yeah, they were the one day. Oh, four day weeks. I mean also in Kansas as well. Sam Brownback absolutely just they were blue a decimated that state's budget at all it's educational institutions, and they literally had unpaved roads because they didn't have the money. Kidding when service them anymore? So they turn them into dirt roads. And what is hilarious about Kansas and Oklahoma? And this is very recently to both of those states were the labs through which like the Heritage Foundation was like this is going to be our test case for how we want every state and federal budget to run guess what it turned into Mad Max, especially you like also were they test all the new KFC and Pizza Hut. Cons concoctions, the laboratories of democracy that one surprisingly tight race, the democrat only trailing by maybe four percent, depending on who you believe. What do you think gonna lose lose? I say Republican wins. Yeah. Sure. But we'll rounding that out of the South Dakota governor's race. Which really interesting racer Kristi Nome who is their member of congress running for governor. Who said a few months after you won the primary when she actually started campaigning. I didn't realize I would have to campaign for this one. It's a tight race, and she's running against this guy named Billy Sutton, the democratic candidate who is a former rodeo star who was crippled in a rodeo accident where his I horse flipped upside down in a tube that he was in the old rodeo. But he was a really compelling story went back to law school, and then he or something like that. And then he got elected and became the legislative minority leader in the state, I for one I'm sick of these rodeo clowns in congress, and also if you look at them up, Billy son, he's a big guy so big boy, you would be a large governor of the plain states love big, boys. That's another tight race. At least one poll shows him ahead. I'm gonna go based on the tester model of large democratic candidates who have mangled themselves in some sort of rodeo or agricultural related disaster. Accident I say he wins it. I agree that logic colds. I am in agreement. Bring the election bell. We all think. Rodeo guy's gonna win. And one more red state one. And this is also just a weird one because it's a weird state and Alaska Bill Walker is the independent governor of Alaska was elected with democratic support last time around this time he's running he dropped out of the race. Because he was splitting the vote with Mark begging. Remember that guy? Oh, yeah. The one term wonder who is that guy. He won six in the in the wave. He was the Alaska Senator or no he wanted eight he eats. He eats. He beat Ted Stevens who has any. Roasted on the daily airplane accident shortly after well that's a tight race now that the independent candidate dropped out. But he's still technically on the ballot. What do you think? I don't know anything about that. Oh, is that Alaska shouldn't be a state agreed to Russia? Alaska B's, it's big, and we can keep things there. So we'll ask what would one hundred percent view. I don't know like our groceries like pantry. Canned good strategic helium reserve put the Fultz. I'm thinking might come up. It's good to have that much stuff that much. I'm going to say what the hell baggage wins. Because the guy is a right wing psycho. And it's. It's not much of a right wing say. But a weird. It's very weird state. I'd say Republicans with the with the current governor still on the ballot. Yeah. I'm gonna say he wins. We keep in Alaska. Dangerous single men who were fleeing either child support or warrants in the lower forty eight. Yes. Two more. Now California's governor's race or way. No, I'm sorry meant to spur putting this one the Senate race governor's race who gives a shit. It's done. The Senate race is of course, Dianne Feinstein against Kevin to Leon both Democrats who advanced from the first round of voting because they got the jungle primary there Feinstein is up. She's leading every poll describing you fucking morons you stupid baked idiots. You fucking avocado toast poisoned morons. You know, why she's going to win because they don't listen to our show out that absolutely not things to do. They're out in the sun on their screenplay working on the screenplay there networking. They're having a good time traffic there. Like all tanned and good looking and they're chill. Rob Google bus there coating, they're creating our future. They're creating the future that we always three. Also, they're getting trimmed up all the time. That's true. We'll things to do than be miserable and listened to an east coast. Pod. It's a good point. I know they should listen to native Californian in San Francisco guy. Jello Biafra about that farmer. Mayor of San Francisco. I am I saying fuck fuck off. Kevin de Leon does need to go to Diane Feinstein's house and mow her lawn. That would probably win it for him. But then again, I know Matt has been waiting for. This is the only other one I care about is marquee governor's race in my opinion. Wisconsin let's go come on. Do it. Do it inches grid is the thing? Grid. Thing come filled ventriloquist's dummy time linear Scott Walker three times. They tried to recall him. Fucking Jason voorhees with the fuck it, and you him sandwiches. Oh, I didn't. I don't know who's running against him. I don't need to know. I don't have to look it up. He's like if Michael Myers was scoped it out of fucking butter. Just this relentless just massacre egg piece of shit. He's trying to turn the FOX valley into fucking schenn's. Then province. He wants to put a he's putting a fucking Foxconn factory with suicide. And that's in Wisconsin. Oh, he's just the most repellent scumbag on earth, most states wouldn't be an issue, but Wisconsin does not have term limits on governors. Tommy Thompson famously was elected four times. But I think he's gonna lose. I think he's going lose. It's tight and he's running against an absolute nobody. But I think he's gonna lose only agrees with you the democratic candidate consistently up the one bowl from Marquette shows it in even raise which of course, is not good for an incumbent. Well, that's the thing. And and it's another case where the Senate race Tammy waldon's blowing away a awful troll womanly Cuckmere. And that's another thing where I think she he she might have enough coattails to pull this this fucking zero public instruction. Here's the other thing. I've only ever hang on Gorby by wrong. But at least in one of these three races where we're Walker one. Wasn't he behind in the polls like in the recall? Maybe no, it was all I don't really remember. It was frankly, it's dramatic, but I never felt good at any point in any of those races. So I highly doubt. There was any kind of consistent situation where it looked like he might lose. How you feel now? I think you know, what actually. Data point that makes me think he's gonna lose his actually less with polls then to do with the state supreme court race that happened in February. And Wisconsin is one of the states that idiotically elects supreme court members. And it it it. They're always off their they're never during like regular election day. They're always a special election. And as a result. I think basically every race of the twenty first century has been won by the right wing candidate because outside money just comes in floods. The airwaves every ad is is four this whatever fucking monkey Lous. They've got to run a run interference for their agenda. And then they win thanks to all the psychopaths in Waukesha county who vote every fucking election. And I think for the first time in a decade or so the democrat won one of these off year off election day supreme court races and buy like ten percent like she Buchan blew him away. So I think that indicates that that whatever magic whatever seek. Britt sauce of just getting out the aggrieved elderly people slowly dying of rate on poisoning in Waukesha county to put him over the top and all of these off year elections because he's never won during a an actual presidential here. I think it might do it over just thinking this applies for all the races. We've seen for these special election results results that Democrats are excited to turn out and in some of these races. I think the democ what happened was the Democrats turned out and the Republicans just didn't turn out this summer. I n -ticipant will have something that looks like a presidential election year turn out and that the Republicans are fired up, and they are gonna come show up. Absolutely. You know? Yeah. You know, what I think we should do as additive incentive to vote against Scott Walker if you're in Wisconsin, I think we should clip our reading from his book unintimidated Madison live show and released that as a bonus episode if he loses no before just the added motivate your in his own words from Scott Walker. I think that will put some fire in the belly. I thought this would be a reward that you get. If he if he loses what do you? What do you think? Why don't we flip it before? You're right. Well suit before. All right. Those are the bar. I have one final question for you about this election. As a New York state in New York City resident obviously the governor gubernatorial primary that was a hot one. There is a candidate. And a reason to vote in that one I'm obviously not gonna vote for Cuomo for governor as easily going to be this whatever Republican, he's not. Not even know his name, literally don't know his name is there anything any candidate or anything on the ballot in New York state or New York City that I should get out and vote for where where where you live in in the heart of Brooklyn park slope mansion. Yeah. just looking for a reason to get one of those I voted stickers. But like, well, you should vote. I'm gonna vote I really enjoy voted xactly. You go inside thinks you're like a God fill in the little bubble Amschel races. Like shitty. You can write in whatever you want. I wrote down. I wrote in the Combo's last time for all the judicial races. I planning on doing something similar on with it. I am going to vote on Tuesday you go to. I mean, the work. See the thing is the working families party is afraid of losing their ballot line. So they want you to show up swallow it and vote for Cuomo on their lying and each shit, the working families party sucks are. Yeah. Anything they were trying to do is. They've been absolutely hollowed out fucked them, should I write in for governor. Will you could vote for the green candidate? Oh, yeah. How Hawkins okay. How about you? Then some guy who just keeps running all the time. He's his perennial candidates. I always have a soft. Neil. There's a socialist alternative candidate on the ballot yet. Yeah. Now, I think vote for how he Hawkins. If you could give a just a good old right in for Cynthia Nixon or for Sarah. Jessica parker. Hey, we should let you know. We should try things. We experiment. Go through all four of them. I'm more of a Kim Cottrell fan. I'm going with her. That's a good idea. A trawl. Absolutely. Yeah. That's definitely Chris for discussion on another episode though, wrapping things up. I mean, we're sorry. We didn't get to get to the awful ballot measures that you should vote against. But I'm sure you've figured it out by now if you hold your hands on this one, I mean, come on rent control. Yes. Things like that obvious public Bank. Yes, fracking, no votes. Yes. Vote in Colorado vote for whatever re places greater restrictions on fracking. I don't know the letter or number it is and vote no on this fucking piece of legislation. That's just this this amendment that would just give money to fucking crackers vote. Yes. You ban fracking. Oh, yes. On measure. She in San Francisco, which is basically a tax to deal with a. To help ameliorate their homeless situation. Ja- at Jack of Twitter is come out against it. And says we didn't know that Twitter may have to leave San Francisco of some are afraid of this. So measure, see, and obviously, you know, measure measure, B Angeles. And there were a handful of great DSL candidates on the ballot that deserve your vote. I'm sure you're very local. I'm sure you were already acquainted with them. You'll Vago back in California, Akron Goldstein in Maine who is the democratic nominee for the Senate against king ended the for fucking steakhouse. Come on. I said statehouse. I'm saying don't vote for a steakhouse Angus king. Oh, he's a steakhouse. He's a steakhouse and in Pennsylvania, some great local legislative candidates, summer Lee, Sarah, Sarah in Morocco. Chris seal was with Fiedler among others. All right, folks. This is exciting. And by the way, preempting all you mother fuckers who want to try to own me. If I if my half trollers prediction is wrong. Like, oh, these not hell world. Yeah. Okay. Remember when the Republicans ran. Romped twenty two thousand ten and then two years later, they defeated Brock Obama. Remember when that happened? Yeah. Exactly. It's all hell world buddy old all the way down. Absolutely. Well, you know, at least we'll be there live stream and we've drinks on Tuesday night. We've drinks we've drinks we've whip. It's it's it's we've cut. It's going to be. Special guests. It won't just be me. Man virgil. We will have both institute in studio apartment. We will have in stream guests, and we will have call ins for many of our friends in the chop over who many of them are going to be actually out there. You know, covering the weather report, we will bring the election to you. Yeah. And what do we need to watch? The just blank faced Dullard of cable news' fucking the perfect ocular face of of Rachel Maddow, staring blankly election results. Don't worry about that. Or fucking wolf Blitzer? Trying to trying to decipher simple mathematics. Don't worry about those motherfucker. We promise that the chapel election stream will be the best online coverage of all the events is Tuesday outside of the chatter bait election stream, of course, can't be and Matt what are we calling our election coverage? It's Armenia decides twenty eighteen okay? So get out there and vote guys. You know if. It gets. It's a game. If you want to I mean, it's a game play the game. I will say it's fun to do. Yeah. I do enjoy doing it. Just as an experience. I always have fun. When I go, and yeah, we'll we'll see ya. Issues eight night. Okay. Right. Just a little John. And I'm sorry now for the legalisation of marijuana.

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