The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 677 Reviewing Arsenal Changes


Hello episode, six seventy seven of the sleeper in the buzzed. It is Wednesday April twenty fourth. I'm your host more. And I am flying solo today. My first solo cast in a little while. I think the last one might have been the call your shot. I am going to do them regularly during the season. This is just the first one where I had a topic ready to go and wanted wanted to jump into it. So what we're discussing today is arsenal changes so far. That's definitely something that I think you can look at early on and start to at least track. Right. It's something that can definitely, you know, flip quickly especially with some of the percentages that we're talking about here. You know, they throw a handful of of whatever pitch it is in their next outing. And all of a sudden it's only down two percent or it's up fifteen percents that of six percent. They're still noisy as everything is. But we gotta talk about something. Right. We got we got to see what's going on out there. We cannot and I repeat this mantra lot early on. But we cannot just sit on our hands doing nothing, and I don't wanna do that. So what I've done is. I've taken all the information of pitchers. What was my innings threshold should've remembered this? I'd made this data e yesterday the twenty third, and I didn't know if I was going to do a piece or a pod with it. And now as you're hearing, it's a pod. I think it was a they have one hundred innings last year. And then so far this year like fifteen or twenty innings, but if they didn't make the one hundred days last year that doesn't matter that that's what we're looking at here as as the important factor is the one hundred innings. Excuse me from twenty eighteen to kinda give us a base to go off of and for some reason. This. Oh, no. Oh, goodness. My spreadsheet is being wack and can't do anything with it. And that's not gonna make for quality podcasting considering the bulk of that data is on this this. There we go freak out should edit that out not gonna do it. All right. So here's what we're going to do. We're primarily looking at ten percent more or ten percent fewer. Of each particular pitch. The one exception is the very first one here where we're going to be looking at five percent or more fastballs. Because nobody's throwing ten percent. Fewer fastballs than they did last year. So let's just dive in with fastballs and talking about some guys that are making some big changes there, and we see with everyone or with the not everyone in the the general theory in the game to get away from the fast ball. We actually do see some guys leaning into there's a bit more at the very top. We have David price and Patrick Corbin there. Plus eight percent on their fastball usage. They're definitely the two highest guys right now. And of course, both and found some success to it's not necessarily because of this. But it is interesting. You know, one of the key factors that we've been seeing from so many guys when they make sweeping changes, including Corbin himself. Just last year is that they get away from the fastball. To see to see a couple of guys who are adding a little bit of fastball usage and still finding a boatload of success early. On is pretty interesting Corbin is still writing that that slider. A thirty six percent clip that is down from forty one percent. So a lot of the change has come out of that side and the curveball as well, which was kind of a show me curve. Last year was a nine percent patriots down to five percent this year. It's also slower by the way, just doesn't kind of an interesting note from seventy two and a half to sixty eight and a half but his fastball sitting at ninety one still for Patrick Corbin has amplified up to fifty six percent that is a three year high. So he's finding some success with it. I wonder if maybe something in Washington clicked, I always wondered this sort of stuff, and it's easy to speculate on it. But you never know because I have heard other players say that this isn't true that not every guys out to share. And just say, hey, I seen I've seen this or I've got this. And it might help you believe it or not, you know, not. Everyone is out there. Trying to first off some guys just aren't comfortable with planet. Simple. They don't feel. They can teach our impart anything on anybody. But others are just like no off got this. This the doggy dog world. I know we're teammates. I wish you the best. But I'm not giving you my tips and tricks. So I don't know if anything happened where somebody on the Washington staff. I on the field or in their coaching staff said, hey, Patrick, you can get a few more fastballs cook in and it's not going to take away from your business. Let's see what we got here. And it could just be early noise. You know? So it is something to monitor. I think there's going to be much bigger changes in some of these arsenal developments here as we get into the other pitches. So I'm not just going to say every time could just be noise. Could just be noise. Could just be because that's a garbage podcast. I will say it's increasing for Patrick Corbin. I start it was fifty six percents. Then it went back down to fifty percent. Fastball usage, then fifty five fifty seven sixty one. And that sixty one unsurprisingly was in Coors. So he has experience out there more. So than a lot of other guys maybe on the nets because he comes from the west with Zona, and he understands as well as anybody that you're going to win out there with the fastballs, by the way, little tangent on that. I had this wrong for years. And I I thought that the big Coors hangover effect dealt predominantly with breaking balls and how they wouldn't break much at. Home. And so, you know, you kinda hammer them lot of hanging breaking stuff, and you can just kinda beat it around the yard and drop in heads. And of course, go yard. And then when you leave when you leave Colorado go on the road, you're starting to see stuff break at a much better clip. And so that was what fueled the proverbial Coors hangover effect. That is not true. There's some of that. But the course hangover effect is fast ball related. So that is interesting to me, they are the absolute worst. And I think the last I can't remember what the data was that. I searched I think it was the last three years pull us. So it'd be from sixteen into the first month of this year, they're dead ass last in fastballs. On the road and tops at home. Which by the way, I just I found extremely interesting. I'm looking something up right now. So I apologize for the for the kind of disjointed train of thought here. But I really wanna find it. Okay. So let's see I noticed that they go from first against fastballs at home to thirtieth versus them on the road. And so I had all wrong that was a text. I I was reading there. So by the way, doesn't that run contrary to what I said about corporate using fastballs. At at course field. That's interesting. Maybe he thinks that slider wouldn't be as affective nevertheless for corporate specifically he was successful out there. He had a baseline quality start actually a little bit better than that. Because only three of the only two of the three runs were earned six strikeouts. One walk in his six innings. So anyway, that's Patrick Corbin. He's up David prices up on his fastball usage as well. You know, he's not been somebody who's been afraid to use his his fastball. It was down last year to forty seven percent. He's actually kinda see-sawed with Boston forty nine fifty nine forty seven fifty five with the fastball usage where it really has come out of has been the cutter. So he's going to be in in one of the big cutter drops by a lot. Now. I do wonder if there's some classification melding there with price because you know, maybe some of the straighter cutters. His cutters at eighty nine in his fastballs at ninety. Three on average. So those are distinctly different. But there's probably a blend point in there where maybe maybe there's a little bit of classification to. I don't know for sure. But nevertheless, he's been successful. I'm digging it as a longtime David price, backer. His velocities holding firm. It was at ninety two seven last year at ninety two five this year. It's gotta strikeouts way up with swinging strike rate. Backing it up to going from nine point six last year to thirteen percent this year on David prices. Swing strike. Great fueling a thirty two percent strikeout rate easily career-high if he can hold it. Let's see what is getting chases his chasing. It's up in imperceptible amount from thirty one to thirty two percent, not really anything that we're going to say is is crazy there. But the first pitch strike rate is up. So he's getting ahead. And then getting swings and misses and that is fueling the early strikeouts for David price. So those are two big guys up and fastballs. We also have Noah Syndergaard Trevor Bauer. Our Jacob degrom. No cigars up six. And then Trevor our Marco Estrada. Jacob degrom Jose Ranya and Cole hamels are all up five percent. I'm just going to mention them really not going to dive in on any of those five percent. I know fastball is the most used pitch. So it's it's it's something. But it's it's not really something that I think is is worth going crazy on right now because it is at the lower end of of a of a boost their now, let's go to the other end though and talk about guys who have dropped ten plus percentage points off of their fastball usage from last year. And see if we find anything interesting there. Tops right now. Our Joey Casey and Chris Stratton at minus fifteen percent. Chris straton? Sorry, justin. But who cares? But Joey Lucchessi seems to have peeled back on its fastball usage in favor of a cutter. So he would he would definitely appear on the cutter list here. But I'm going to kind of I'm gonna cover that. Now, he has plus ten percent on the on the cutters for Joey Casey. And I think it's a new pitch. I believe it's just a flat out new pitch. Yeah. He's using it ten percent on the button. And it's not something that he used last year. Now, it is the exact same speed as his fastball. So whereas I was talking about it with David price. I think even more so you can have a classification melding with Joey Lou Casey's fastball and cutter little bit of extra cut. They're, you know, making it more distinct cutter, but I'm not sure that it's all of a sudden this this this new pitch. And then of course, he has that chirp that fastball changeup hybrid as well. He's all about those hybrids. So he's got a a funder fastball cutter. And it's true love. So he's got four pitches packed into two for Joey Lucchessi. But you know, what he's been it's been pretty successful the four three era. One thirty whip doesn't scream major success. But I love the underlying skills right now. Twenty five percent strikeout rate. Eight percent walk rate twelve percent swinging strike and that all adds up to a fifth that's at two ninety three. He's curbing the homers. Remember last year, they will really high and that was the big issue with Lucchessi. He's down at point seven homers per nine and eleven percent home at a fly ball rate is is average. So if he stays down in that range and doesn't get into last year's twenty percent territory. Then I think the homerun suppression Israel and a big change has been cut down in hard contact rate for Lucchessi from forty one percent to twenty seven percent. So I think we're seeing some changes here that you can believe in and with the area whip combo not particularly sexy at four thirty three one thirty. He's someone to buy. He had a twelve run into outing. Stint there. The giants of all teams ripped him in San Francisco. One of the more maddening outings of the year. I put it on a par with like the Zach eflin in Miami. It's like when you're using these mid tier guys in their best in their best starts, and they don't take advantage. It's so frustrating because we have so many of the top guys struggling anywhere. Would you? You don't really expect? And of course, they're going to have their bad starts like anybody. But I need my top guys to go off. So that I can supplement it supplement their foundation with these mid tier guys. So when they blow a start like that it's very frustrating. And then Colorado got him at home for five runs albeit in seven innings for Lucchessi. But then he bounced back recently with five and two thirds and eight strikeouts against Cincinnati just three days ago. So that's Joey Lucchessi dropping a lot of fastball usage down. Fifteen percent. Another guy with all due respect that we're not really going to dive into is minus thirteen percent for Nova Ivan Nova of the White Sox, and I'll also kind of clear. Out. Another piece is that his slider is up the most at twenty percent because it's a new pitch. He did not have a slider last year. This year has got a eighty six mph slider. That is using a twenty percent clip. Let me see bearing any fruit got walloped by by Baltimore the other night. So I go with. No. But let's see eight forty shouldn't even spent this much time on Ivan Nova sorry about it done to other guys at minus thirteen percent on their fastball usage along with Nova are Chris sale and Trevor Richards now with Richards. It's very similar to the Lucchessi thing in that. He seems to have created a cutter here. I don't think it is a new pitch. Did you have one last year? No, he did not. So his eleven percent cutter is new for Trevor Richards. But it's where differs from Lucchessi is that it's a distinct v low level it's ninety one mile per hour fastball. Eighty six mph cutter seventy. Excuse me, eighty mile per hour curve, and then his eighty three mile per changeup. So now, he's got he's got four bands of velocity, which isn't bad when you when you top out at ninety one to still really have several different bands of is pretty good. It's probably closer to three bands. You can kind of say that the change in Qatar. They're close three to four miles per hour. It's it's in that it's in that gray area. Is it really all that different? But you go from let's just call it low nineties mid mid to low eighties to low eighties high seventies low eighties. That's three bands at least for Trevor Richards. So that's kind of intriguing of course, his strikeouts. Have continued to really be successful and made him one of the the more intriguing middle tier guys so far this year with a three seventy two area. One twenty four whip and twenty that's actually down at twenty three hundred strikeouts higher. It's swinging strike rate at fourteen percent that has folks believing that the strikeouts will still be there. A does have seven strikeouts in three of his five outings, and then just seven total in the other two. And so he does have a strikeout per inning or what he's one Gye. But it's only twenty three percent rate because he's walked so many guys in this is where you can really get into the difference between strikeout rate. And Cape or nine because eight point seven caper nine. You know, he's he's a stone's throw away from that that one printing one printing usually nets a twenty five percent strikeout rate with with everything else kind of being averaged there. But because he's walking so many guys he's facing more batters. So it's keeping the per nine up, but the rate isn't as affected so we'll see if Trevor Richards can cut into these walks and leverage that swing strike rate of fourteen percent even more and amplify the strikeout rate to something really special. But right now, we'll take a k per inning. And some useful starts Chris sale. Of course, you know, he's kind of been covered to death. But he is getting away from the fast ball a bit. He's also down two miles per hour on on his view low. So there's a lot going wrong with his fastball. Obviously that's been a big part of the problem with everything that he's doing and a lot of that thirteen percent has gone right into the cider which is up eight percent. And even in the rest goes to the change up. Up five percents the three pitches that sale has. Take a a shred of encouragement from yesterday's game against the Tigers yesterday being Tuesday in case, you're not listening to this. Right. When it came out Tuesday, the twenty third in that he got nine punch out or ten punch outs in five innings, but the Tigers worked them up to ninety seven pitches in five innings. I'm sorry. Like as a one off. Okay. You know, if Chris sale had four brilliant starts, and then the Tigers just kinda got him a little bit you Slough it off. And you say man, no big deal. He's still got his ten strikeouts and oil to runs, but when this is kind of his best start. That's gross. The Tigers oftens sucks like they found some success because of pitching their starting pitching has been has been one of the more interesting rotations to start the season. And they've got some staying power. I think with at least a couple of the guys namely Matt Boyd. And Spencer Turnbull, but their offense has not been doing anything of note. And in fact, right now among their starters. They only have two guys two guys that are above in eight. Plus in one of them is on the I L right now and Kristen Stewart, so you looking at Niko gooderham, no Cassiano, no Cabrera, they're not they're not doing anything. You know? I I definitely did not hate the Josh Harrison move at two mil to bring a main in bounce around the infield. And and maybe even play a little outfield and be all right. Probably be like a league average hitter kind of twenty four twenty four Dr WRC, actually, that's opiates. Sorry. I was looking at his be ref page. I imagine it similar WRC Twenty-three on WRC, plus one eighty babba me he's gonna come up. He hasn't. He probably deserves a better fate than he has for Josh Anderson. But the bottom line is too bad lineup and Grayson Greiner took sale yard. So you. You can take like a Amila shred a making up new word. You can take Millis read of encouragement out of that star. Because I think the V was up a bit and you did get your ten strikeouts. But you got to work over the Tigers man, you got to just pummel them actually excuse me. I thought the view compared to the last outing against the Yankees when he sat ninety five he was back down to ninety two seven. Now. It does stand as second best veal start of the year for Chris sale. But man as for me that said I'm holding. I'm holding firm. There's not a whole lot that you can do with Chris sale right now. It's tough. I understand that. But what are you gonna do? I mean. If you were hurt you gotta believe that he'd be on the I L short of just lying and in playing through something when you hear him talk is seems like sale is trying to work through it. And and knows obviously there's issues, but doesn't exactly know how to fix them yet. And so I think you just have to ride it out and China, let them fix it on the fly and keep them in your in your Rosser rotation last thing, I would do I just I do not subscribe to the sit a guy like this like Chris sale until good start. Because I I'm grinding out this garbage seven forty three hour, a I'm not pissing away seven strong innings on my bench. You're kidding me on that. I think that's a losing strategy. And then you would never never find me doing that. There's zero chance I'm sorry. All right. So some other guys that are getting away from their fastballs as well. At more than ten percent. A ten percent clip or. More. I should say Marcus, Stroman, Charlie Morton educationor Matt Harvey. Who cares? That's eleven percent for Stroman. Morton Jameson tie on minus ten percent Blake's. Now, minus ten percent Zach F one and Homer Bailey. And mine is ten percent is Homer Bailey came back to earth last last night in a big way. And for some reason, I weirdly got like. You were wrong tweets about that. Because I tweeted that he had been good for for a few starts like I did not in any way, shape or form suggests that you go out and just aggressively pick up Homer Bailey. I was disappointing out that he was finding some success. He'd had three really good starts and even in the bad start that he had were seven of his eleven runs were giving up. He had seven strikeouts against the Mariners. So I was just pointing out that the splitter was off the chain. And you know, things things were going well through four starts. It was not a Homer Bailey's. And all formats kinda guy. It was like this is interesting to note on it. So I mean, guys, I take I take my hits where deserve them. And if I recommend somebody and it goes down in flames. I gladly or you know, once gladly I'm not happy when I'm wrong, but I'll I'll own it and say, hey, got that one wrong. That was not. There was nothing that. Said go get our Bailey. Here we go. Everything's about pop off again. And we're going to get peak rents Homer Bailey. So yeah, he struggled. He didn't get onto the or he did go the first inning only against the against the RAZ yesterday for runs on four walks. Three heads just didn't have anything. Let's see. What is pitch mix? Look like. The slider was was failed. It was trying to trying to work that slider and it quickly wasn't work. And he threw it twenty four percent clip that's more than his last two starts combined. If you just added up, the percentages of those two, which you know, doesn't really mean anything. But the bottom line is a twenty four percent was a season high. He got away from the split finger a bit maybe didn't have the feel for early. So he was trying to go to the slider for Homer baleen. It just didn't work. I'm sure everyone's gonna cut bait. Now, I'm still gonna keep an eye on it though. Again, it's not an aggressive go out and get them. But particularly in deeper leagues where pitching is. So sparse. I'm gonna least keep an eye on it again. Because if I can if I can squeeze if you decent starts out of it. Okay. But I don't know he is leaning into that split finger more or last night being the exception for Homer Bailey and split fingers. They can be tough though, when you don't have the feel if you don't have to go to it can be. Trouble. But the guys that were more interesting in that group there were Stroman Morton, Tyrone and Snell Snell's putting his into his curve ball f win as well. Evans putting his into his slider tie. Also, putting his into a slider Morton spreading it around a bit with some cutter anchor curveball improvements, and then Stroman Stroman someone I wanna I wanna zero in on a bit here. He his name would pop up, and I'll mention it in passing just to kind of refresh my memory as we get onto some of the other pitches. But this is going to be the destroying section here. He's amplified strikeout rate. Now. Twenty three percent is not Godley by any stretch of the imagination particularly today's game. But for Marcus Stroman, it's a big boost. It's a substantial move up and his eleven percent swing strike rate is a career high. So there are some noteworthy things here, and it is getting away from his fastball which for him is generally a two seamer slash sinker, which can be interchangeable at times. But can also be distinct just kind of depends on the guy. I think I think he does kind of have both. In fact, you might even have all three if you really say a four seamer to seamer sinker for Marcus, Stroman, I think you could you know, if you really got down into into cost of occasions there, but really rides a two seamer for the most part. That's that's what you're looking at. That's what keeps the ball down and really fosters that heavy ground ball rate that you've seen Marcus Stroman that has fostered a sixty percent career rate, including sixty two percent each of the lab. Two seasons down to fifty six this year, though. And that is part of getting away from his fastball usage again down eleven percent. You know, what else is down big the cider usage. So he was a sinker slider. Two seam cider. However, you want to call it guy for for most of his career here with mixing in some other other things too. But when he was really going he's to seem or slide. Sliding you this year signs all but gone three percent by. It could be another classification thing because his his curve ball is is only two miles per hour different in view, but the shapes probably different enough to get it to be put into the curb ball bucket. Well, that's where things are really changing. Because the thirty nine percent fastball usage has given way to a thirty four percent. Curveball usage far higher than we've ever seen the highest. We've ever seen a curveball usage on. Stroman was sixteen percent back in his rookie year of two thousand fourteen. It was at fourteen percent last year. So he's all the way up to thirty four percent this year for Stroman. And that's no doubt fostering, this the strikeout surge, and we're seeing big results to one seventy six ERA one twenty four whip. Now, that's an ER a whip combo that simply doesn't add up and to me, it means that the area is going to go closer to match the the whip as opposed to the other way around because he has walking guys. A ten percent clip. His seven point six hits per nine is is solid. There's nothing inherently wrong with it for Marcus Stroman. But it's not something where I'm like. Oh, that's that's that's crazy one way or the other. So I think what the amount about is that he's giving up. Some of them are going to start to find the play a bit more. Seventy six percent left on base rate. We'll see he has tracked higher rates high rates before seventy eight percent for all of two thousand seventeen for Marcus Stroman with two hundred one innings, but that is a clear outlier right now in this career. In fact, he's struggled with it in other seasons. Sixty one percent left on base rate for Stroman in twenty eighteen sixty nine percent and fourteen and sixteen which you would think is nice. But actually is the one instance where the sixty nine percent Mark is nice. I mean, it's still nice. But it's not nice. If you catch my drift. So yeah, Stroman a little bit intriguing here. And I got. A little bit of pushback with my ranking on him recently updated. My starting pitcher rankings and got some pushback, you know, hey, what's up with Stroh? You know, we're where you got him ranked is too low. Did they rhyme? It like that. I don't think. So I didn't even mean to do that. I had him eighty seventh. He was in the shallow spot star category which ranges as high as fifty seven though. So again, I I always tell people don't get you hung up on the number. If you like him better, and you wanna more and that sixties range, that's acceptable. I get that. I had them write lower. 'cause I hadn't really investigated him to be honest. When I when I rank one hundred twenty guys I didn't get to do a deep dive on all one hundred twenty freely admit that. And so sometimes it's a cursory. Look, I I have a concept of how everyone's doing in in some way, shape or form. I rarely ranked somebody that I just don't know what's going on with them at all in a given year. But I hadn't deep dove on on Stroman to see these arsenal chain. Of some kind of keep an eye on them if he can add some strikeouts. Let's say gets to like a three seventy one twenty four ERA whip combo with a twenty three percent or better strikeout rate. I'm in on that. And that would facilitate a move up the rankings without a doubt. So this was interesting. He was one of the more intriguing guys Marcus Stroman was in terms of arsenal changes again peeling out of the fastball and slider both at double digit rates. Eleven percent on the fastball and thirteen percent of the cider and funneling all almo- almost all little bit into the change in cutter, but nothing really worth discussing. But a twenty one percent jump in his in his curveball usage for Marcus Stroman. So that was interesting there. Let's see I think that covers everyone in the fastballs there as far as going up and down. Now, let's move over to the sliders and looking at guys with ten percent or more ten percentage points or more. And I talked about Ivan Nova he as a new slider. It clearly hasn't helped he has eight forty seventy are a so maybe just put that back on the shelf and never look at it ever again in your wife, but we do have a handful of other guys who have all added. I'm look I'm just checking the CR or any of these new sides. No, these are all additions. So we've got a group of guys adding ten percentage points or more. And by the way, I'm gonna post the list as kind of the show, notes and. It goes, maybe I should change it. But. I'm probably not going to. I'm just going to be honest with you guys. So on the ten percent or more. It goes from highest to lowest but on the ten percent or less actually know what you know what I won't do. I'll just redo it. And I'll include the percentage changes because otherwise it's not really useful to list. So them never mind. What I was gonna say there. Anyway, you've got ten Roark Jamison tie on both. Plus sixteen percent Zach Efren Carl's Don both plus thirteen percent. Joe must grove Chris Stratton, plus twelve percent. I mentioned that Stratton was one of the fastball droppers he's putting in mostly into his slider. I don't think it's delivering any sorta results kind of Nova ask this year. So nothing really to care about their Herrmann. Marquez Brad Keller. Derek holland. And Robbie Ray are all plus ten percent. So let's focus in on a few of these guys. Now, I mentioned Jamison Tyrone as a fastball guy. Kind of glossed over him dropping his fastball usage enhancing that slider. There was some surprise that. I kept him ranked so high based on his start, but I don't really see any reason to back off right now the strikeouts. Haven't been there yet. In fact, is eighteen percent clip is is lower than ever before. It's the lowest of his career, but his eleven percents when you strike rate is a career high, and he is putting more into that slider. So for me, I see strikeouts coming. I I would think so they really haven't been there yet four five four four three. That's that's pretty bland. But the results have been great nonetheless, he has three twelve ERA and a one twelve whip for Jameson Tyrone, not walking anybody who's not really allowing many hits homers. Everything's there. In fact, he only has a fifty five percent left on base. Imagine if he was stranding runners at at his seventy five percent career. Clint then all of a sudden we're talking about. And even lower Yarra perhaps. And so I think they're still subside here, and I'm not I'm not getting away from Jameson Thanh at all. And he did jump. He is jumping deeper into that slider now at thirty four percent usage. So as he kinda continues to really refine that and turn it into a hopefully premium pitch. I think we'll see the strikeouts start to come forward. So I'm still in on Jameson town easily. It's not even really a question for me colonels dawn didn't quite make the fastball droppers list because he was only minus nine percentage points. But we do see his slider usage tricking up. Tricking up. What the hell trickling up? I was gonna say, but it's not really tricky. It's kind of surging up. So I don't know where I came up with tricking. But it's plus thirteen percentage points to a career high thirty nine percent. And this is something I've been wanting to see Karl show, Don, he somebody. I've always liked and I've repeated this a few times on the show last year. I was I was in on him from a far I like the idea of him. I want to see Karl on be successful. But I wasn't really investing because of the volatile nature of it because you weren't really getting a whole lot. The strike outs were down because I saw a guy who's just still kind of figuring it out. And so I kind of wanted him to figure it out on on other clubs, and then jumping well, maybe I should have jumped into draft season this year. He might he might be actually figuring it out. He's off to a really fast start with the two eighty ninety or a and a one eleven whip Twenty-nine percent strikeout rate no-doubt tied to that. Enhanced slider usage, which is has been great for mardi. Delivering a seven point zero pitch value, which doesn't necessarily mean it's going to hold that way. Just tells you the results with the side of this far have been strong for Karlskrona on. We've seen him, you know, work different bits of his game recently as he kind of figures out what to do against righties work, some up in fastballs and get pop ups and really keep them off balance. Maybe don't get as many strikeouts. As we saw. The strike outs were taken away last year down to a career-low eighteen percent. But then this year, we're seeing that he is still getting righties out at a very strong clip but also getting strikeouts against them. It's up to twenty nine percent against them as well that he hasn't even face that many lefties so the bulk of this surge he only has sixteen plate appearances against lefties calls or not. So this is this is defeating righties. This is what sustaining his success, which makes it more encouraging than anything else to be quite honest. Because if it was just, you know, he'd happened to run into a bunch of teams that had no choice, but to use a below. Lefties. Would it would it would take it would take a little bit of steam out of the five stars for road on? And yet here we are. We're putting up a one ninety six to eighty to seventy two against righties with thirty strikeouts. One hundred three plate appearances. I'm really liking. What I'm seeing here. He still walks guys. But part of that is by design. It's it's it's more of an extreme example. But it's what we talk about what we want Shane Bieber to do which is not be afraid to just walk a guy and continue to throw competitive pitches on the corners and not just lay something fat in the middle of the zone that can get tattooed when you're in a bad count for yourself re rack and trying to get the next guy out. And he's absolutely have been doing that Carl's Don has and in addition to that, I can definitely take these walks when he's not allowing homers. That was part of the problem was he would allow the walks, but then maybe the rack wouldn't work the next guy went into run home or maybe even three run Homer. And so with homers up at a. One point one clipper higher each of the last three seasons for crossroad on. It was it was tough. And that's what kind of kept him in the low force. Which by the way, speaks to the fact that. In a weird way. The fact that he was at four oh four four one five and four eighteen year as was kind of impressive to me for calls on because he had metrics of somebody who could have been much worse. Like things had a chance to go sideways when you're allowing that many homers, and that many walks, but it just shows that he did get out of some jams, and then he could be difficult to hit at times, and that his stuff was still peeking through at premium level here, and they're just not at a sustained level. We may be getting that sustained level this year out of Carlos ro Don, I'm very intrigued early on. And he's definitely somebody who took a nice little jump in my rankings. In fact, I had him up to the usually start category. So he only moved up nine spots for March, which by the way, a lot of folks. And I almost did I don't know why didn't just go through with it. I was going to post a difference from March thing in the chart, so you could've seen where they or they moved and I didn't do it. And now I've made chain. Changes since that ranking. So here's the thing. Do I go update that post with with the updated or with the sense, March changes and then? You end up seeing some different rankings. And I have to explain that all again or do. I just hold off maybe another week and do a completely new post. I'm feeling like the ladder is the right move there. And I will have it should dang it. I need to make sure that I have it since April now too. So you can see how they've changed since this. Most recent ranking update part of the reason though that I would like to keep it separate from margin. The reason I ended up not doing that. With the with the chart was the preseason rankings are a little bit different than once you get into season. I was kind of looking at the grand scale of things and ranking that way, and you you have some guys that you don't know if they're going to get in the rotation. So they're ranked like one forty but once they're in a rotation, they shoot all the way up to seventy just on the fact that they got the spot, you know. And so I don't know that showing that difference is is as useful. As some might think. It's however going forward now from April Demet for May June etcetera etcetera, I do think that a column with with difference from the last ranking would be useful. So I think that's what I'm going to do. Let me know either on Twitter or in the comments of this podcast post. How you feel about that? If you agree with it. If you think it's ridiculous or or what have you? But I think that's what we're going to do. But anyway, the point there was that Rodion did move a tear. Oh, by the way, one of the thing I wanted to point out because I was talking about with regards to the margarines the NC's rankings aren't necessarily rest of season because I'm going to do another ranking. And I think trying to think that term is pointless. What is the point of that so much is going to change? So we're talking about kind of the here. And now these are four to six week rankings because we're going to get more data guys are gonna get hurt. Guys are gonna have role changes guys are gonna have arsenal changes velocity. Changes. So what really is the point of being so rest of season focused, obviously at the top end. You know, you're still really focusing on the long term because you're not going to make stark changes on. You know, like a like a Chris sale you're going to trust that track record in the elite guys. But once you get into like, I don't know twenty five thirty it starts early this year. All. What does it? Why do we really wanna be so rest of season focused, go her mind somebody in love, and the only thing that really was standing between him and and and me drafted him in every single league was a rotation spot. Then of course, every Yankee ever gotten hurt. And now he has a spot and some leeway on a spot to like some some runway to really get going and establish himself. So he shot all the way up to forty four. But of course, say okay, what was the season is forty four. And you treat them as that now here on April twenty fourth. Everyone comes back her mom falls on hard times. And all of a sudden he's out of the rotation. Like, I just don't know if I see the value. So I look at these really as four to six week rankings as opposed to getting so rest of season focused. If you disagree with that notion, I'm open to a debate on it to really kind of talk through it. But I think we should be a little bit more focused on on chunks of time. Again, not. Next seven day rankings. We're not gonna go that volatile with everything. But schedule matters to, you know, sofa guys got a friendly scheduled coming up or a team does because you can never really know for sure how a guy's gonna have. But if a team has, you know, a bunch of games in the AL central coming up and their guys are likely going to get a bunch of starts there. Well, they might move up the rankings because of that for that time period. But that doesn't mean that the rest of the season they're there. And so yeah, anyway, I just wanted to get that point in that these aren't necessarily something that you should really be looking at as you know, I'm committed to these through September. Because in that case, I wouldn't update them like what would be the point of updating them so four to six weeks anyway, pardon the tangent. Their bottom line is Carl done doing well backing it with some real changes. And giving me something to believe in that. I think he'll move up even again within the usually start here at the next update. All right. So moving on then sticking here with the sliders. Let's talk a little bit about Joe moss growth. He's up twelve percent on slider usage, and it's really come pretty much from cutters and fastballs now, I think they're. Again, this is become a popular refrain here. But it's you know, we're we're gonna we're gonna note it when it when it could be there. But I think that there was some melding of cutters sliders in his classifications over the years as well. Now, very distinct velocities eighty four for the signer eighty nine last year for the cutter, it's an eighty two and eighty seven this year. So putting them together they're not just in one bucket. Like, it's not that close. But again there can be some overlap on the fastest sliders in the slowest cutters. That said I do think we're seeing a true change here for Joe must grove. Because he's at twenty eight percent on the side or usage of this year. And just six percent on the cutter. And like, I said the cutters down to two miles per hour on v low, and so I think we are really seeing a change here to highlight what he wants to do with that slide piece, and it's bearing some very nice fruit. You know, his swing strike great sat at eleven twelve percent. The last two years for Jonas grove suggesting that there could be some strikeout upside. Well, he's able to find another jump to thirteen percent this year and he's got a career best twenty four percent strikeout rate. He's still not walking guys and this year, so far he's not allowing hits at much very high five point seven hits. And he was a bit hidden -able throughout his career thus far allowing about a hit parenting for Jonas. Now, he doesn't have to thirty three Bab that you know, we should feel definitely gonna go up a bit. Although I do really like the addition of coal Tucker to the. To the defense arrogance Alice's pretty much I go too. So it's not necessarily an addition in terms of pure pure defense. It added from Gonzales to Tucker, but I liked that Tucker's glove is premium. So is either as good or better than dolls and Tucker can add a little bit of offense to help support not just Moscow, but the other pitchers on that ball club as well. So yeah, he's not going to continue to allow it to thirty three Babbitt. I definitely think we'll see that trickle backup. But hopefully, it can can have a new career high or career-best I should say because he's been at twenty nine three fifteen to ninety four the last three years for Joe Moscovici can put up like a two seventy something like that. Then he really is going to keep the hits down. The homers are way down to four percent Homer to five all rain is definitely helping that. I would expect that to move back toward toward his average. In the last year was at ten percent home to fly ball and point nine homers per nine. That's fine. That's workable. And if he's not allowing hits or walks than he's going to be fine. Anyway, those aren't going to be damaging home runs more often than not for Joe grow. So I like what he's doing a lot. I'm really big on him. He was somebody that I was trying to scoop in as many spots as I could and got him all the way up and. Like thirty something I think pardon me, twenty nine how dare besmirched the great Joe Moscow. But you are by what he's doing. This is somebody I really thought could be a breakout. And I really dig what's going on with him. All right. As far as these other slider movers. I think I think we've well, okay. Actually couple others. I do want to touch on here Herrmann. Marquez is a ten percent on hit percentage points on the his. And it's really come out of what's see the change of and the fastball about five percent in each. Does. He won what kind of chained up? Does. He really have by the way, her mom Marquez's. Throwing right now. He's a lot three runs and three and two thirds against the nets in Colorado. We'll see how the rest of that start pans out. But you know, he's pretty much been as expand. Yeah. Okay. I thought it doesn't really throw much of a change up. It was it was it was like show me pitch. Anyway last year at six percent now it's down to two and a half percent. But it just funneled the rest of those back into the slider and also taking a little bit of a little chunk out of his fastball in popped more ciders. He's obviously been amazing on the road and sputtered a bit at home. Gee could have never. Seen that. That's that's wild. You don't usually sit only one of the runs has been earned so far in in those three runs, by the way in today's start. But you know. I. I get I get every time. He beasts on the road to like. God him. Digit because I didn't say that. He couldn't be great on the road. He's been fantastic on the road. That's awesome. It's all about what he can do at home, and he's gone five innings both times at home allowing seventeen hits and seven runs. So sweet. And you know, we'll see again, we'll see what he does today. And he's going to have good starts at home to like there's going to be some good starts. I don't think he's going to get pummeled every time. But my point was. Guys, don't really defeat course. And I haven't really seen him defeating course so far at any sort of sustain level nevertheless, throwing more ciders. I think that's a positive from our Cassie does have to breakers, and he can really rely on. And when you have the two breakers like that you don't really need a change up. And so that's why that really isn't a problem that he doesn't have the change up. Let's see Derek, Holland is throwing more sliders, and that's coming out of his curve and change and Brad Keller leaning into his slider. He's a sinker slider guy for sure, but he is taking some those sliders putting them into the sinker. Although we're not really seeing anything to different outta bed Callard than what we saw last year, which it's still a little flimsy in terms of having the solid are a this year is at three forty one from three. Oh eight and the whips down a little bit from one thirty to one twenty four, but he's walking more guys. So it's it's it's a six percent strikeout might just walk rate. In fact, his strikeout rate at nineteen percent is completely completely completely completely fueled by attend strikeout outing against Cleveland like that is the driving force behind his. In fact, it's worth thirty five percent of the strikeouts. He's had already this year. He's gone five five three three three in his other five start. So I don't buy that. At all, you know, he's ground ball guy strand runners, but a to Twenty-eight Bab isn't gonna last I'm selling the hell out of Brad Keller right now, you are you are playing with fire. Good good, folks. If you still have him, and you're starting in with any confidence brand Keller and be very careful. Derek Colin was somebody that I guess questions about with my ranking on him, and it was just a miss, and I'm frustrated by it because I consider myself. A Holland believer really liked what he did down the stretch last year. I was using them in some leagues. Now, he is in the in the spot starts here. So it's not like he would necessarily move way up from that. It's just that. I wanted to highlight him a bit more see where I had him ranked. Let me pull that up very quickly because I think I've already made a change on my main page, so I have to go. Back to the. He was ninety three. No, he was in the and that was the problem. He was in the deeply spot start here at ninety three. He was someone. And I mentioned this earlier about how I can't dive just didn't get to. That's just on me. My my failing there on on not getting Derek Holland up to where he belongs. I've got him. Now at seventy something hang on finding again, I've got him at seventy on the button right now. And so, you know, he's going he's going to stay there. Maybe even trickle up a little bit more keep saying trick said tricked earlier, and I keep wanting to say that I don't know why I don't know why that's become my my crutch phrase of this episode at any rate. I've got Holland at seventy I like what he's doing he solid. He's got a great home part to lean on you should be using them in a lot of leagues. And just kind of, you know, getting quality quality work on on of him. He's not going to change your your rotation. Like crazy and be like, holy crab. Derek Collins, really. Staining me, but the four thirty-three as obviously pretty high but at one twenty two wimp and thirty one percent strikeout rate. I think he's got one or two stars that are really pushing things up as far as his home run rate actually the home run race, pretty consistent. But he has six in his five starts. That's a two point. Oh Homer night. Like, that's not even crazy though. It's just that. That's how noisy things can be right now is that we can still have a situation where it's getting absolutely trounced, but six homers and twenty seven innings that's a lot. But then all of a sudden you go one outing where you only allow you don't allow a single Homer in seven innings and you're down to one five. And so, you know, that's still going to move quite a bit. I don't think he's gonna continue awhile homers and a two point oh clip for Derrick hall and a twenty one percent home in a fly ball. I do like the strikeouts. I love him at home on start there. And then kind of played by year on the road with. With Holland Robbie Ray, adding more sliders coming out of his curve ball. He kinda is when he is. I'm not really anything on that. All right. This is going to be like a ten hour pod. If I keep going at this pace. So cutters is pretty quick one. Here. There are only three guys that are up ten ten percentage points or more in only two that are down ten percentage points or more the three up our Trevor Richards Tyson Ross, Joey Casey, we already talked about Casey adding that new cutter and trim, Richard. So and sorry Tyson Ross, I'm not sure that you married a real deep dive here right now. And then as far as those who are down on their usage, we have Jonas grove David price, and we already talked about them. So that knocks out a pitch really quick. I will say this. I will actually give a little a little bit of love to Tyson. Ross doesn't have a three thirty eight era and a one twenty five whip isn't he on the I'll right now though or my tripping on that let me see. Are you held good, sir? Matt Moore, pardon me, pardon me. But yeah, ease. The those those ratios are good. But can you really believe in them? When you're looking at a seventeen percents strikeout rate nine percent walk rate. Eight percent swinging triggering the last three years it's been six nine eight for the swinging strike rate for Tyson Ross, he just doesn't miss bats anymore. And he is allowing too many homers. It should come back down a bit with a twenty one percent of fly ball rate. But I don't buy that at all. So peace out on on Tyson. Ross foreshore let's move over to curve balls. We aren't talking about Marcus Stroman doing what he's doing with his curve ball. He's up. What did I say? Like twenty percent yet twenty one points Tyson. Tyler Molly is up twenty one points. I believe that's a pretty new curb? Yeah, he threw it one one percent of the time last year. So he threw a couple. So it's up twenty points. I guess, but it's basically a new curve that he's brought in in lieu of his change. In fact, he's really he's really changed things. Let's talk about Tyson Tyler Molly sorry, I keep calling Tyson because on Tyson Ross's page Tyler Molly of the reds. Let's talk a bit about him. He's got a twenty five twenty six percent strikeout rate. Four percent walk right? Those are fantastic. Don't really have the underlying support for the strikeouts though with just ten percent swinging strike rate and is chase rates down to. So I'm like, how are you really doing this? His his first pitch strike rate is up a little, but there's nothing here that really supports that kind of strikeout surge. So I would call that flimsy and a nine strikeout outing when you only have four starts can really help that. In fact, he's got five seven three and nine so two really good and to pretty mediocre. They're the eight strikeouts. The five in the three are in twelve innings combined. So that's that's bland is how that's not that's not worthwhile. But then the sixteen in eleven innings so do not buy into that strikeout rate right now out of tower, Molly. But let's talk about what he's doing with his pitch mix. Okay. So he's a shoot. His slider for curve ball. I I would not think that this is a total. Total cost of -cation thing. Because the view is different. We're talking three miles different. And there's been no sliders logged. So it would be kind of weird to say that it's just a cost of -cation thing if there's literally no sliders logged by the by the systems here. Let's see we go to another system just to check. Yeah. They're not showing anything with sliders. Let me go down to pitch info. No. They were used pinch of pitch FX. Okay. So here we go pitch. X actually says it's still a slider. But Brooks and pitch info say it's a curve. So I don't know. I actually I don't know now Tyler Molly, whether he has switched breaking balls from the side or to the curve, but I do know that he has moved from straight change to a split finger. It's up four miles per hour. Still an eleven percent pitch. It's not something to use his crazily. But if it is a new curveball, there's at least some sort of shape difference. There has to be for what has always been a slider for him to be classified as a curveball. So I definitely think that there's something different with the breaking ball on Tyler, Molly. And then, of course, the change up being being classified as more of a split change. Now is interesting too. There's there's something to keep an eye on remember being intrigued by him. I have to talk with Iino. We know about him a few years back, and we kind of kept an eye on. And nothing really came of it particularly last year when you had a four ninety eight era in one fifty nine whip things were really problematic this year. It's at three fifty to one twenty six I could buy those those ratios potentially being what he does whether or not he can maintain anything close to the strike rate is my question Mark on on Tyler, Molly. Oh, hey, shar dog Charlotte here to check out the pod what's going on? What are you doing? She's just trying to climb into my lap. Here. I want to be on the show. You just hit the space bar? Putting up to the money breathe into the Mike. Let them know you're here. Those were her nails. Really works to bring your dog onto an audio podcast really really getting the full full deal here. Anyway, chard did you have any thoughts on these pitch arsenal changes? No. Okay. Cool. Anyway, sorry about that little interruption from the pup that's Tyler Molly may have some major changes or maybe just be a little bit of noise sticking with the curve balls though. We also have Tyler glass now bumping his up fifteen percentage points from last year, and that's come out of his slider and fastball. He's only down five percentage points in the fastball. But this slot excuse me in the fastball down five but down eleven in the signer. So he's really kind of moved more to occur from his slider. Let's take look at glass. Now, this is one I've had my concerns with glass now. But I've I've always maintained to that. If I do see some changes to believe in I'm going to adjust with those changes, I have no reason to be hard lined here. And just dig in my heels, it's can I never can see Pat. Success for Tara glass. Now, I've been concerned that he can't maintain his mechanics because of the a lot of due to the height being difficult to keep your height in line, and to repeat your mechanics often we've seen it with a lot of pictures that doesn't mean that no tall pitchers have ever succeeded. However, when you name when the first thing, you go to when I say that is Randy Johnson, you do sound very stupid. Just so, you know, when you when you name one of the very best pitchers ever as like, whoa. Yeah. What about Randy Johnson? I don't take you seriously at that point. I say, wow. That was a very stupid take you shouldn't have said that you should say better things. But there are plenty of other guys who have found success. And so again, I don't rule it out for glass now. And I have been very intrigued by the fact that he has just a five percent walk rate. So far backed by sixty eight percent first pitch strike rate than he's getting in the zone more. So than we have seen early on just through five starts, a LA. Lot of changes that would foster control gains that are believable while still maintaining his ability to miss bats, and very electric clip. Yielding twenty six percent strikeout rate. So I moved glass now up again, I'm not gonna hardline here. It makes no sense. It just makes no sense. I'm not going to do it. So we're seeing changes here. I buy it those that bought in on spec. Congratulations so far because this is going very well for you. Now for me, we've seen three four five starts of goodness before what I'm really looking for on a next level situation is where we will month from now when we're another five six seven starts deep is he still holding it? And then then you're going to see me moved. How a glass now, you know, it doesn't have to be at this clip. A one fifty three point ninety two ERA whip combo, obviously, I'm not holding them to that standard. But if the walkway continues to be impressive for glass now and his first pitch strike and his. Zone rate, and he's still getting chases. And all that even as the moves up. Then you're going to see me putting him in the top twenty top twenty five again, I'm going to be open to doing that. And so I thought that the speculation was a little bit aggressive because I just wasn't really seeing it. I'm eager to see where we go from here. You know, he did he even when he started well last year with Tampa Bay when he got after the trade, it wasn't it wasn't like this because even after one walk in his first seven innings with them. He was at two three and three so just just right away. Then after his first two starts he had a twelve percent walk right in his next three. So this is a five percent walk right over five start small sample. But I'm intrigued by Glaus now. And we are seeing more curves in the mix in lieu of a slider, which is more or less shelved. And he's really going fastball. Curveball now if you aren't going to have a change up or third pitch to really work against opposite. Handers a curve ball is the right pitch to have to kind of keep them off balance. But it is a two pitch pitcher right now. So keep an eye on that. But I was what I've seen glass now so far and he's made me look foolish. But I'm here. I'm here for a new ways I'm here for and if it sticks. Let's keep a close eye on it. Let's see on the down curve balls. Actually, two others that are just to mention them real quick Jay code plus twelve percent. That's come out about this lider and cutter and Blake snow. The ten percent drop in his fastball rate has gone right into the curve, and he was a little bit wobbly today coming back from that toe injury. I do have to wonder if the toe impacted him at all and Casey got to him a little bit. But not really concerned about it. We'll just see if maybe needs more time with the toe, and maybe the five days, we'll do it. Or is it something more? You know, you're going to require a bit more than that. I don't know. But I do I do love what we've seen outta Blake Snell backing up his sei-yung from last year. All right, only one big drop in curveball usage. And that's actually Trevor Bauer who's down fourteen clicks from what he did last year, and he's really sprinted out plus five on his fastball. Plus four on his cutter, plus eight on that change up that he really talked about developing in the off season. That's really kind of set him off to he's. I mean, he's picking up right where last year left off in speaking of Blake's now hito really been given a run for his money with that Cy Young had Trevor Bauer state healthy and Bowers damn near emulating everything he did last year with two twenty eight point ninety eight whip combo after last year's to twenty one one nine thirty three percent strikeout rate. So yeah, he's walking guys at a ten percent clip. I don't even care when when you're striking out like that. And you're this on hid -able, it does not matter. And so now he's got four secondary pitches that he can throw at least twelve percent of the time that is devastating including fifteen percent on that change up. Then he really honed last year was total show me throw a couple here. And there seven percent that's like nothing this year. It's a weapon and Trevor Bowers been absolutely fantastic. Moving over to change ups letters, the we're going to wrap up here pretty quickly because there's not a whole lot to go off of I didn't group them together. Because there are some splitters that aren't necessarily just split changes. But speaking of changeups only one guy up ten percentage points to my ADA up eleven and that's really come out of his entire arsenal. But predominantly his fastball, which is minus six and a handful curves. Minus three percent don't Bundy is up nine. So he's right there on that threshold that's kind of come out of his slider, though, which I don't necessarily love as far as my into goes dig it bopped around a little bit yesterday by the cubs a little bit maybe understated, but he did I like I like when you see stuff like this dig up the six runs, but he gave them up in the first two innings, and then kind of held strong enough to pitch to mornings. Those two extra tack on innings can help you know, they add up when you have guys good enough. Either have the confidence from their manager. Or maybe they're just on their off days there. Not necessarily getting absolutely torch beyond belief, but they're struggling bed and things aren't going their way, but they can still get those few extra innings. No it could've easily been to inning outing. And they just say, you know, what even given up six to eight in in two innings deuces. But he got to go gave up four. I'm not trying to make too much out of this. I'm just saying you really see it more with aces like when an ace gets pummeled. I remember this when the Tigers had like a billionaire those were the days, but now they do again with point. It's not kidding. But like with sherzer virulent Bruin, especially you know, he'd have his bad days. And he give up four in the first this is going to be a quick day. And then he's still ends up going seven, and maybe gives up another runner too. But it's like that seven ending six runs five or six runs. It's like the good guys can have that brutal inning. But still maintain and go the six seven innings more often than not and you love to see that. But anyway can to Mina getting away from his fastball. A bit slider curve and change. Like, I said the changes what's really jumped up. Year, plus eleven points, and it's been mostly successful outside of yesterday's outing that boosted area all the way to five twenty. In fact, he has to really bad outings pushing a up that high. If you look at three one five one and six, but we're still in the noises own so can tomatoes eleven runs in nine third. During those two starts at Saint Louis at the cubs has really impacted as bottom line. I would absolutely buy in on on my ADA. If someone was selling let alone shower league if they were cutting. He's always going to have his innings mitigated a bit. And maybe he's going to get a phantom. I l or necessary. I I don't know. Maybe that's maybe that's what caused his bad start yesterday. But I'm buying on Ken to my eighty here. Coupla guys that are down our Jose Rainha and Tyler Molly, I mentioned Molly earlier with Urania. I don't really think he's worth getting into. And then as far as splinters go. I mentioned molly's up being being up more than ten percentage points. And there are two other guys that maybe matter a little bit more mentioned Homer Bailey's is up. Plus ten is well, Kevin costn- plus eleven now, I think it was with Justin, by the way. I don't know if you can hear the rain, but is straight pouring here. I mentioned it either with Nick or with Justin. But on a recent episode about how Guzman really finding getting the feel for the splitter earlier than ever this year. We've seen it in so many years where it gets to that bad start then has to rally in the second half to wind up with a decent season. But then ends up trick, you know, feels like tricks us because then we buy in for the next year, and we repeat the whole process all over again, but he's rocking. Nice. Little the three hundred sixty as not going to knock your socks off. But a one wimp and twenty nine percent strikeout rate through his first four starts is fantastic. He's still been a little bit too Homer prone at one point four that's kind of the deal was split or guys though. Because even when you have the feel for it doesn't mean every single one is going to be perfect. So you're gonna miss some and those are going to be homers. So dang often. But I like what we're seeing out of Gaza. Even a thirty three percents split usage. Easily a career high tells me that he's got the feel for right off the top this year. And it's serving him well for the most part here think his is also the is also funded by one particularly bad start and that would be five earned at cincy and five hundred. They're also a foreign in five hundred against the Mets. So it's really been to excellent starts one mediocre. And then one I would just I would say that the recent one at Cincinnati just yesterday was was bad six runs. Five of them earn eight hits two homers and. To go back to my point about the homers, and how volatile that can be. You're looking at two homers in nineteen and two-thirds. Is a point nine one Homer per nine. You add those two homers in the five and in the third that he threw yesterday for Kevin Gaza. And all of a sudden he's at one four. So that's how quickly it can change still right now. And so I don't wanna go to crazy on anything like that. I do like that. He is amplifying that split or usage because it doesn't tell me that he has the feel for it. Kevin Guzman last one is Monsignor. No one's down more than ten points on their splitter usage. But Masahiro Tanaka is down eight and he's foreign away. The the biggest change nobody else's even down two points. So he's just using a little bit less tomatoes kind of forgotten guy at this point. He just kind of sits there in the in the second tier of rankings usually in your like twenty five to thirty five range and just kinda grinds it out and keep doing what he's doing. And maybe getting away from the splitter a little bit more in favor of the slider or even some of the show me pitches that he has he can kind of throw the kitchen sink catchy. But at his core it's fastball splitter slider, but the splitters down to a career low twenty two percent, if that hold I wonder if that will help maintain this point nine two Homer per nine that we're seeing which would also be a career-best maybe get a few of those homers down and then as far as more low to mid threes has opposed to mid to high threes three seventy five four seventy four outlier bad season. Three seven three fifty one to it's kinda bounced around. But if we can be more of a three thirty three thirty one twenty season with strikeouts Tanaka. That'd be really nice. I like him. He's definitely someone. I've been a fan of now for a whole minute. And I'm not against seeing the split finger change a little bit. And actually, maybe foster some that home run improvement. So they haven't guys the arsenal changes early on. Hopefully, there was some useful in this here. In terms of seeing what some guys are doing differently. And and giving you something to keep an eye on as we go forward. Let me know what you think. And I'll talk to you tomorrow with Justin.

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