Giga Texas Timeline Update, Giga Shanghai/New York Growth, Musk Comments on Lucid, TSLA Rebounds (09.09.20)


Everybody. Robin our here, and today is kind of a Giga Day. We have news from gigafactory Shanghai Gigafactory, Texas gigafactory New York, and then we'll talk a little bit more about lucid ahead of their livestream unveil of the lucid air tonight, and of course, the stock which we can start out with dessel stock on the day to day finishing up eleven percent to three hundred, sixty, six dollars twenty eight cents on the back of a rising macaroni Environment Nasdaq for the day up two point seven percent. So as I said, yesterday, I, hate, stop-loss orders. This is exhibit a for why that is as Tesla today without much news swung back significantly in the. Other. Direction. That's really my only thought on the stock today. So let's move into the news. There was an interesting post this morning on Tesla Motors Clubs Forum by Ridge. Twenty twenty about a possible time line for Tesla's gigafactory in Texas. This user writes quote have some information on the tear factory build schedule. Tesla is sourcing how vendors slash contractors to bid on work at the site and quote this user then shares some screen shots presumably of some documents involved in that bidding, the most interesting of which lays out a project schedule in that project schedule not a first substantial completion date of May I twenty twenty one according to the American Institute of Architects. Substantial completion is quote the stage in the progress of the work when the work or designated portion thereof is sufficiently complete in accordance with the contract documents so that the owner can occupy or utilize the work for its intended use and quote the schedule also notes that the first dry in what happened on December thirtieth twenty twenty I xdrive just means that everything is sort of sealed up with the building shell so that interior work can commence without having to be exposed to the elements, and then in a separate page here that has also included. There's a more detailed schedule noting that in September they'll be doing things like underground electrical, mechanical plumbing, etc.. October would be fencing porta-pottys waste removal metals, recycling recycling removal, and then November would be architectural interiors which based on the dry and date assume would be non weather sensitive into your stuff. So obviously take this for what it's worth. It has just forum posts, but the documents to me look like they would be pretty legitimate I. Don't think there's a ton of reason to doubt it. I. Think for those of us that follow closely this would be pretty much in line with our expectations. This will be going from breaking ground to possibly production ready in under a year which we know Tesla is targeting based on their work active factory Shanghai originally and now With gigafactory Berlin as well. Speaking of Shanghai Tesla continues to make rapid progress at the gigafactory. They're the global times earlier. This Week reported that Tesla has completed the main section of phase two, which is for the Mata why and they write quote at present interior decoration and electromechanical testing being carried out and are expected to be completed on schedule in October and November and quote not exactly sure what interior decoration needs to be carried out and completed. I'm guessing that's probably something that's lost in translation probably more equivalent you interior design meaning, functional interior design. But regardless, we continue to see these reports about phase two in Shanghai though the Global Times appears. To also expect production to begin for the Monterey in one though they do cite other media reports on that which we have talked about. Personally, I'm still expecting some motto is to come out of gigafactory Shanghai. This you're probably not enough to be immaterial to quarterly results or the financials but more. So again, sign heading into twenty twenty one which cannot believe were that close to you already shifting back to the US and over to the energy side of the business with Peissel's gigafactory. In New, York a different type of gigafactory Tesla. Roddy today posted an article with the headline of quote vessel energy ramps hiring AC in New York for accelerated solar production and. Quote you on did actually re tweet this article in which Tesla Roddy writes quote a source familiar with the matter who spoke to Tessa. Roddy talk to employees at the plant who indicated the facility is currently operating on a twenty four hour schedule six days a week to keep up with demand. Altogether, this move seems to confirm the eighty eight acre location is accelerating solar production and installation insignificant way which coincides with the company's growth and the energy sector and quote while energy storage has definitely grown historically solar has actually been quite slow Tusla recently, which I think was correctly pointed out by Gordon Johnson in our bowl baird debate. So if we go. Back to two, thousand, seventeen, for example, cutie, Tesla deployed one, hundred, seventy, six megawatts of solar energy versus this most recent you only twenty seven megawatts of solar. There are a lot of reasons for that. The business model has shifted significantly but right now it's not at the point that at once what's Tesla's hope? Of course is that the solar roof changes that about which started in their cute you letter that quote solar roof installations roughly tripled in Q. to compare to key one, we continue to expand our installation team to increase the deployment rate and quote of course, this is a new product so to starting from a very low base for Tesla from. But hopefully, that growth rate continues we've also recently seen tesla cut their prices significantly for rooftop solar. Now, offering the lowest price systems in the United States at least at a dollar forty, nine per watt after incentives under cutting other systems and the US by about thirty percent on average. So plenty of reasons to be hopeful that Tesla is on the precipice returning to growth for the solar business and are on their way to finding a business model that works for them consistently for solar going forward. Next today on into provide an update to yesterday's discussion on delivery wait times. I've seen a few comments noting that those have changed for people today they have actually changed for me as well. So the model y currently sets for the all wheel drive version at seven to eleven weeks for me here in the Midwest two to four weeks for the performance for the Model S. and the Model X. Both of those currently sit at eight to twelve weeks versus yesterday's ten to fourteen. Weeks and the model three has held steady for all trims at two to four weeks. So I think the changes at least here for the model y being seven to eleven weeks for the all wheel drive to four for the performance. The variance there makes me feel like it may be a little bit less likely that we see some sort of update at Battery Day for the Model Y to me at least there was no reason to believe that suddenly the performance model wha at. Minimum would jump up from being basically a week or two for delivery all the way to ten to fourteen weeks unless Tesla decided to ship some internationally or unless there were designed changes. So I think this shifting back. So quickly gives us a great example for trying not to read into these things too much. But of course, with battery coming up, we sort of have to it is still something that I plan on keeping an eye on and I still believe the jump up. For the and the X is very interesting. Last thing today is a couple of pieces of news on lucid as we approach the unveiling of the lucid tight again that's at four PM. Pacific. Time. Seven PM. Eastern. Time I may do a little livestream here. I'm not sure kind of depends when we end up getting this out but if this his out before that happens and you are interested in your one of the early commenters, please let me know if you'd be interested in something. Like that, just to sort of watch this altogether, we can do live chats and reactions and stuff like that. But we see Peter Rawlinson was on Fox Business Day remember Peter was formerly with Tesla worked on designing the Model S. anyway the anchor asked a few is concerned about Tesla stock dropping, which is kind of a weird question but he said no, not at all quote the valuation of Tesla reflects the preeminent position of the company, but it's got the world's leading EV technology. And I think the rise in value of that company this year that we've seen has reflected the markets recognition that not only are they ahead of the traditional Oh ease of the traditional car companies and the Germans in particular but that that gap is growing not closing and quote prior to this Ilan did not have as nice things to say about Ronson on twitter replying to test Roddy article about Lucid air saying quote Rawlinson didn't design model s prototype was done before he joined and. He left us in the lurch just as things got tough, which was not cool. He did make some contributions to body slash chassis engineering, but not to powertrain battery electronics or software and quote. So I had pondered aloud I think last week or a couple of weeks back if lucid might be a good candidate to partner with Tesla on the super charger network because at least so far I do think lucid has a pretty good go to market strategy, but with Ron's having left. Tesla I wondered how that relationship was and it looks like from this tweet that may be that could be a no go for Ilan if views Robinson's exit from Tesla as sort of abandoning ship. Anyway looking forward to learning a little bit more about that later tonight. But that'll do it for this episode as always. Thank you for listening. Don't forget to subscribe and sign up for notifications. Make sure you're following me on twitter at excessive podcast and I'll see you next time. Thank you.

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