The IAEA's questions for Iran

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They should he borough charity. You are listening arms control long podcast on arms control disarmament and non-proliferation Time Geoffrey Lewis the founding publisher of the Arms Control. Wonka walk and they professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies Have Monterey Directly Program for Policy Research. I'm employees hungry now. Independent analysts in Monterey California this weekend ooh I think. A lot of things slightly Three loaves of sour dough I attempted sour dough. Donuts that were disgusting and tonight is Sour dough pizza dough. So we'll see how that turns out very tasty to ask me what I'm becky. No Banana bread of it. We have a lot of banana bread in our house. That's what we do with with old Nana's as Rodman has and we made the healthy issuers and so we do use coconut oil rather than butter. That's disgusting. We're not here to talk about errands. Repellent taste in banana bread. We we we are. We are back with our our lousy zoom recording technology to about Iran. Because some it's gone down with Iran and the Iran nuclear deal. I thought we talked about that. A little bit talk first about the background onto. Yeah I for listeners. Who CAN'T SEE I? I'm taking advantage of the zoom virtual background option. And I have a behind me cascade of Iranian centrifuges. What's the breakout time on this? Well I'm I'm I'm actually recording this from in my toilet to try to get away from the sounds of my children's so I'm I'm thinking realistically we could get six or eight Enzo about four or five years that the US we name it the USS Tension Tinny for both the he's Alad quality and the normal function of this particular space. So that's why you have the background so you don't have to look at my toilet. You actually sound pretty good you do. I had no idea if you tell okay. Well that's enough about that's enough about a wonderful sour dough pizza. You're disgusting Coconut Oil Banana Bread and my toilet. We are here to talk about Iran. 'cause some stuff happened three things. I think we're GonNA talk about today. We're GONNA talk about tax the first use of insects Which is kind of an interesting thing. We're GONNA talk about the efforts to access re sites in Iran Raelians Seem super excited about allowing access to an answering questions about a third and we're going to talk about the most recent I e report which has some information. That's been brewing for a while. It's not that all of its new so we can talk about three things stay. We're GONNA TALK ABOUT INSECTS. We're GONNA talk about covert sites and we're gonNA talk about Some under appreciated aspects of JCP away that are eroding so you you all WanNa talk about insects. I sure so I guess so. We tried to record this episode last week when this was first happening but Last week on the on March thirty first German Foreign Office tweeted out that France Germany and the United Kingdom Had successfully concluded its first transaction via insects to facilitate the export of medical goods from Europe to Iran Insects was set up back in twenty nineteen on January. The mechanisms were set up on January. Thirty first two thousand nineteen but this was the first time that they had been used so insects for those listeners. Who Don't know is kind of is. It's a European vehicle to get around Us financial sanctions and by allowing European exporters to receive payments for sales to Iran from funds. That are already within Europe And vice versa so that no money is actually changing hands which then prevents them from getting on the wrong side of the United States financial. It's kind of a big deal right. Because they set up this mechanism in January two thousand nineteen to coordinate trade and yet there had actually been any trade that was on purpose of a significant amount of pressure from the trump administration not to use his vehicle because of honestly is that they were going to deal with these transactions says sanctions violations. May and they tried to just limit it to sue. Currently they are limiting it to just medical supplies medicine. What have you but the Iranians really would like to expand this to other goods. They deem necessary right. I mean I actually think the real value I mean. I think they were quite politically clever to pick an export of medicine at this time. Right because it's very hard Politically to make the case that you shouldn't be Maybe you shouldn't be facilitating kind of trade and and I think for listeners. The European Council on Foreign Relations Has This beautiful explainer Lincoln. The show notes. I'm just going to read it because I think it really explains how insects which is the European counterpart right. It's the instrument in support of trade exchanges and Iran and the Iranian counterpart S. T. F. I the Special Trade Finance Institute how they coordinate trade without any money crossing borders. Because that's what would trigger the financial sanctions right. So the example they get and again. This is from this article So these these are not my words. These are the the the quake clever words two other people. A European export or with an order for medicine from Iranian importer provides insects with the relevant documentation on the transaction. This include evidence that the importer has practiced reasonable due diligence. In relation to the Iranian Byron and user crucially for European companies. Insects will not provide the requisite due diligence service right so the European export her with medicine. goes to tax with documentation. And then once it's approved. The Sale Index Will Register. It on a ledger of trade. Insects will examine. It's ledger to identify. An instance in which a European importer has registered a purchase of pistachios from an Iranian. Exxporter in stacks will approve. Payment FROM THE EUROPEAN IMPORTER OF STASH GOES TO THE EUROPEAN EXPORT OF MEDICINE. Meaning that the payment can be made from one. European Bank to another without using funds that originated in Iran Night so to complete the process of the trade intermediation the reigning counterpart to insects will coordinate a similar payment from the Iranian importer of medicine to the Iranian exporter of pistachios. These funds will remain within Iran. It's quite clever. Although one has to wonder how how much trade arrangement like this could ultimately support? Well I feel like it's I don't think it can handle all a large volume at this point in time. But I think that for these essentials especially when in a time when Iran is having a really rough time with the bad thing that we try not to mention on the pie the bad thing I did. I know but it's important. It is important to to make it known that this that the first the first transfer of goods is necessary because they're having a really rough time with the bad thing. We can't avoid it completely but it is. It is politically clever. Don't you think I think it's politically clever? But I think it's also politically revealing took so long for them to process the first payment processing in the first panel was built around the export of pulling that would be in command -tarian goods rather than something in facilitation or something that the US financial The US Treasury would be looking at far more closely in terms of monitoring secondary sanctions placed upon the potential position of sanctions placed upon European countries. If they were to do If they were to engage in trade with the Iranians in ways that the JCP lay was supposed to facilitate. Would you say that? That's the way? Yeah I mean I the way I look at. It is the purpose of this is to try to deliver to the Iranians some of the benefits of the agreement in order to keep the Iranians at least nominally in the deal. You know they're at the point now where they're not abiding by many of the provisions just as the US has an abiding by many of the provisions but things have not broken down completely. I I think it's a clever way to start things but given that it has been an entire year is just not clear to me that this instrument as clever as it is is going to really ultimately be a difference maker although I I I hope I am wrong. Yeah and I think it's worth noting BA first. Transaction being around medicines given what ends with a backdrop. What is was a clever way to do this? I will question the viability of this as a large scale mechanism to give Iran. Even some of what it wanted under the JCP la and even in the very very Clever and very clear to follow Explanation that you read from the easiest piece. That's still kind of complicated than just a bank. Transfer right yeah. Yeah and so. I think Iran is making the requisite sort of counter moves to register their displeasure. Yeah so for example. There's not enough trade to get us the answers and access we want to the three covert sites which is the second big fake we want to talk about. The other major development has been that their IRA has raised questions about three undeclared sites in Iran. And while the IRA has been super careful about not naming the sites We have a pretty good gas right now. It looks like this involves one site that the I a visited but that they have questions about and to sites that the I eight year would like to and would like to visit but that the Iranians are not eager to give access to. Yeah it's I I think it's worth just rece- just reading. What what what. What the director-general Grocery Grossi set in full because it kind of circumspect but nevertheless very clear if you know where the group to the lights I'm just GonNa read it quote. The agency has identified a number of questions related to possible undeclared nuclear material nuclear related activities at three locations that have not been declared by Iran. The agency sought access to two of the locations. Iran has not provided access to these locations as not engaged in substantive discussions to clarify the agencies of questions and then there was the big warning right. Which in with Reuters? He said. I sincerely hope that Iran will listen to us and listen to the voice of the international community and assess that it's in their interest to cooperate with us. We will be walking towards a crisis if not so we have some. There's some thoughts about what those three sites are likely to be and they stem from the Atomic Archive Which was the documents that Israel purloined from a warehouse in subur- suburban Tehran so the three covert sites that the I. E. A? Would like to visit or would like questions answered about Are are likely a site called Turku Zabad which is the location of the warehouse of Tehran. Where the Atomic Archive was discovered. The Shaheed Bergeres Project which is a site located near Parchin that is alleged to be quote a production scale facility for manufacturing uranium metal components for nuclear weapons and the third is an unnamed site near day where Israel has alleged that Iran has conducted experiments to develop nuclear weapons including Yields estimation experiments. And we'll talk about it. But Fob Aeon Has Jill located that site. Yeah I think we should talk about her cusack. The warehouse site I because it does look like that. That's the one that the I eight years has been to and it's a little unclear in the Iowa reports because they didn't use its name but one of the reports mentioned that they had done environmental sampling at a site that revealed natural uranium particles of an of anthropogenic origin. And the report. Didn't say that was to Kusabhadra Abbott. Your typical anonymous diplomats. That's right raiders. Diplomats always western clue slid shink sets country. It's shock it's hard to imagine which which which western diplomats was a kind of so the important thing there is that this is the site where the atomic archive was created. Which is railly's late. Which the Israelis rated Always got a little frustrated because you know some of the people who are constantly demanding the IRA Do this inspection or do that inspection demanded that the IRA go visit the site and then when the visited the site they said it was too little too late not getting enough super annoying but a big ups to friend of the POD Mark Fitzpatrick who in advance of the visit sad. If radioactive material had been stored at the warehousing question it would have less left traces that lasts for years and are very difficult to erase and Lo and behold it left traces and the Iranians couldn't erase them. This is my favorite part because Iran always gets caught with his hand in the cookie jar. And it's always the I e a sample swipes the IRA has never been good enough to to to be an enforcement agency returned to at least be able to inspect these Places get it always seems to catch the Iranians with their hands in the cookie jar. It's it's incredible. I mean this is the Iranian. You know we were treated to the just endless in torrent of about how the Iranians were self-inspecting. I wasn't gonNA find anything. Parching and Pink Tarps Gloat Lo and behold they both got natural uranium at the site but then more importantly and very cleverly they didn't just swipe for uranium. They swiped for the explosive that the Iranians claimed had been stored there and that wasn't present and it was like. Yeah you guys are so by omission. I you know I mean good for the Iowa forgetting in. They're not surprising. It was the archive for the nuclear weapons program that we all believe existed up until two thousand three. Not sure what we learned other than that like. The archive is really probably an archive. Which you know didn't out when we should we should also mention so the the to the next two sites are came. Those revelations came we think out of the archive but are sites. That are part of the former program not things that we are currently worried about. Yeah I mean it's part of this endless and utterly pointless argument we have where we say. Iran was building a nuclear weapon. That's why it is very important. Strike this nuclear deal and then people say you can't strike a deal with them. They were building a nuclear weapon. It's like yes Rumsfeld nuclear weapon. That's why you have to enhance inspections. You can't trust them because they were building a nuclear weapon like yes. I know. That's why I need a but you can't trust them that yes I know. That's why it's yeah. It's you know it will get to this. We'll come to this later. Between the problems. We have talking about Iran. Because they're the three of US doubt that Iran was was headed very active. It'd be a much better podcast. Gareth Porter on you. Don't pretend exactly for ten was building nuclear weapons. We all know this. So that's the hardest part about this about me For me is following. Along with this because the imploding of the JCP La makes it easier for around to build a nuclear weapon at a time when we know that they had previously built a nuclear weapon. Where where it would be better to verify in robust detail that they're not building weapons. Yeah I mean. It's IT'S INCREDIBLE. People are like you know the problem with this deal is at the provision sunset. So we have to pull out of the deal now in Suns at all the provisions. It's like you know it's like the person who goes to the restaurant like the food is terrible and the portions are so small. It doesn't make sense what we do think or at least we are inferring. That two of the other sites that Grossi was talking about were sites that were in the right. I think so if only because regardless of whatever we think about the political theatrics of what the Israeli government under Benyamin. Netanyahu is doing these. These appear to be sites that are identified in the archive and Raphael. Grassi is a sincere and competent. International official and he is going to ask to see these sites right. It is not possible for me to imagine that Rafael Grossi wouldn't be interested in seeing the sights and so they have to be on the list as we talk. Let's talk about the first one Shaheed. Borusia Day Zhizn Shahida Boroujerdi Luzerne this. We're establishing that. The Arabic speaker is less likely to mispronounce the Persian word the Turkish speaker. Which if you speak Persian and you speak Arabic you know that. That is still not good enough. They are just. They are still difference. It's better than my redneck pronunciation. Should he borough charity best? Actually good. We're GONNA go without. I mean you got a little Charlie Wilson going on there. I'll never forget. My childhood accident comes out. I'll never forget learning that young young island in South Korea which is young young doe which I can't I can't get that people just called it in the military why Pedo why Pedo so just sp. Right so SB is a site that and I'm quoting here. A senior Israeli analysts assessed that this site was involved in making uranium metal components for nuclear weapons. It was published by Isis. It was it was provided to them. I mean you know to their credit. They footnoted right. It was a briefing net that David Albright got in Tel Aviv from Israeli intelligence officials foot Are Important why he could have pretended. He founded himself which he didn't do that. We've been unethical so I can give them about not liking their politics and then also give them credit for footnoting things it turns out. It's harder for some people to footnote things and others heart for some harder for some people to footnote things on others. Okay it's there it's on it's on the Parchin site right or two military bases Arjuna's or it's huge We know this. It's very large and it's the site where they had the The Test Chamber where the famous self-inspection took place where the EA found uranium particles actually where the Iranians who self inspect and found the uranium particles. I E L. Right and I think from from what does it matter perspective. It is important to note that the documentation shows that construction occurred between April. Two thousand two and may two thousand three. So that's before. Iran halted a word. I know love but before moulting or paused or suspended its nuclear weapons program which is typically given as sometime in the fall of two thousand three although the bureaucratic mechanism by which Iran halted the program. It probably took a little longer for it to play out so this is a. This is a free two thousand three. This facility is probably I mean I think the is pretty good that it's part of the pre two thousand three weapons program so the the evidence. Let's talk about evidence because I think one of the biggest parts is that it documents indicate that it is associated with project three point one four which had been previously identified by as part of the covert nuclear weapons programme involved in Uranium metallurgy. Yeah you know one of the really interesting things that comes out is so they have the documents associated with this right so they've got a contract that says it's for this project one ten which is a nuclear weapons program and then there's what I think is one document with to slide saying that the beneficiary as this project three point one four there is one I e document mentions project three point one four and it makes it clear it's part of the covert nuclear weapons program and I have seen secondary sources say it was linked marina metallurgy. But I have never been able to find that in an I. E. Eight documentum. You know one of the CO author on the report is Ali Hainan. Who's the former Director for safeguards? So I suspect that this is confirmation that that that's what they thought it was for. Okay so we'll just put a little asterik about that just a note. Oh I think it's real. It's just I I actually I happen to find. I found one book about Iran's nuclear program that mentioned that's what the thought project three point one four is four and I kinda made a note to myself like. Oh this person must have done some good interviews right so it's not that I don't believe it. It's just that like we'd seen them referenced. Project three point one four his best. I can tell one document where they didn't say what it was for But nomenclature wise that makes sense and I should say also. There's also a table of purposes of the rooms while they don't say uranium it makes it clear it's for processing battles so I think that's good enough. I mean I see why. Israeli analysts concluded was to make uranium components nuclear weapons by. That's a pretty good too. Yeah so you know it. Actually if I was going to make a broader observation about this I guess I would say that it goes to the kind of the challenge of the I eight. Yay at a place like Parchin right. Which is you gotTa know where to look. I mean there's a famous story in far as I think as far as news or maybe mayor about Ali Hainan in another. Iea official trying to select a spot To inspect parching and then picking out this bunker and the Iranians laugh at them because they say it's a toilet right which I'm not actually sure. That story is true just because the Iranian said it even worse toilet. Yeah but like even if it were true like this is a really big sprawling site with lots and lots and lots of buildings and unless you have really good information about what's happening in a particular building You know it's it's it's actually not that easy right to know exactly where you should go and and so. I'm not surprised that they would put a facility like this at Parchin and Not Super surprised that they would would be able to hide its existence. Maybe not remembering this correctly and I don't care if you leave it in if I get it wrong. But it was after they went and looked at it was around two thousand five or two thousand six where there were more documents sort of made available today adults to say that it allowed the refine their search to go looking for that specific billion S. Chambre am I remembering that correctly? Well that's how I remember it but it's possible we're both Miss Remembering it. But yeah they did do a visit to Parchin which which was not conclusive because it doesn't seem like they went to the right building. Which again like not not meant as a criticism of of the War of Ali Hainan at the time. Like it just. It's hard right. It's frankly if you're doing your job you're you shouldn't limit yourself to just the places that you're sure of right. I mean eagled testing the dependent. Variable yeah you you gotTa You. GotTa you know. I'm sympathetic to that so I You know it's not surprising. Iranians were able to do this. I didn't mean that is a criticism. I meant to say that it was a reaffirmation that it is hard especially at a big place like Where you could get a whiff that says Parchin as the site of some nefarious activity up but not know exactly where that is. Yeah well I mean it's like getting a whiff that there's some nefarious activity University of Maryland. College Park went to school and I was like. Yeah well I know there is a buildings you want me to go in for. I mean people all the time who went to Maryland when I went right at. It's like there's like I don't know how many thousands of students and it's like I didn't know like I should we talk about the third side. Kaz Aaron. You you you have you feelings about this place. I just called the dump at a desk buildings. The desert right so this is day. This is one of the most interesting things to me. The Israelis shows what information from the atomic archive to distribute and so they gave sb to to Albright and company but they held back this place until one of the multiple Israeli elections. That's been held in the past year. Maybe the second one. I can't remember. Oh and they said and you know in their defense. They said they decided not to burn it until the Iranian started tearing down Once okay reunions knew that it was compromised and they could go ahead and release it now. I'll leave it up to you as to whether it needs to be released in a campaign style briefing but the prime minister but you know it's a really interesting. It's a really interesting location. Because the Israelis do not say were what the purpose of the site is and didn't really provide much documentation associated with it. But you you an fob went and found the site and try by by that by that I mean by that you mean fobbing went and spa on the site and was like. Hey Jeffrey I found the site out of this look and I went on a safari and found the site and from working with bobby and is he just find. I don't know how well the Israelis did they gave the town and they put up a picture so they showed us how that picture and they gave the town as low hanging fruit bulldoze through it like a boss. Yeah so what did you. What did you see? What did you see because I it's a get to sit with you and look at this stuff anymore? You have to dump. It's hard to know how dumpy it is though because there weren't a lot of great satellite images of it remember it. Looks like it was part of the pre two thousand three nuclear weapons program right and so you know if you look at Google Earth for example. The newest picture is like may two thousand thirteen and that you know by then looked like it was in pretty bad shape. We also used to have Tara server but you know poor out Tara Server. It's now dead so Keira survey it's got got got to buy that straight from our MAC SAR got which I guess. We'RE GONNA probably end up doing You you know it. It really didn't look very active until the archive was rated and and the bulldozers showed man love is unseen treatment. Y'All which is now what cows our park a lovely park these days. It's a lovely bark. That's the one place where the particles for listeners. The one spot the Iranians have ever seem to successfully Demolish raise and then seal up. So that there's no finding anything was Lavasani on Shan which was probably a site for testing centrifuges Which the Iranians not only bulldoze but they ground scraped. God knows what happened to the dirt and they turned into a park and they've redone the park multiple times since and it's had basketball courts and other other things put down their pictures up online. It looks like a very peaceful and beautiful place to contemplate universal bereavement. They ever let us say. Maybe we'll record life podcast from that that you'd be freaking awesome. You know one of the funny things about this site which I don't really get I mean first of all. The rains didn't scrape the warehouse which they could've Yeah. It was weird. And they didn't and they didn't scrape this thing knocked down the building but they they left like a bunch of trees and things and so it didn't look like it was the kind of ground scraping that. I would expect to have seen if they were going to do a proper a proper cleanse so I don't know what they're up to but but they didn't let me. Yeah I mean it's a suspicious site for sure I mean I like whatever you think about. The motives of the people leaking this information. I think the archive is real and much of the information appears to be verifiable. This is a weird looking facility. It's a location that looks like a security facility. You know it's it's not. A far am a fact that after the archive was stolen. The you know suddenly got bulldozed. You wouldn't bulldoze a site like this site like this. It's in the middle of nowhere. If you abandoned it you would just let it fall down right. So that's the one that I the most enigmatic because like the SBA we know we've because we have the briefings a pretty good idea what it was four in. It's not surprising that a facility like that existed. This one is still kind of interesting to me. We Are we done with the three sites we. It's not really for US okay. We're it's sort of confirmation of things. We already assumed happen right. But it's right. It's the circular argument of Omega. Iran had a nuclear weapons program before two thousand and three. Yes we know. That's exactly why you need to agree to enhance the inspections. But you can't do that because Iran nuclear weapons program before two thousand three yes. I know that's why you have to. Yeah but the Iranians hadn't been sitting around and saying. Oh just just just keep smashing me over the head with sanctions. They've been gradually increasing pressure particularly on the Europeans but also the United States by undoing early violating provisions within the JCP La Serbs sequentially in response to American actions. And I think those I think we all agree. Are they more worrying part than these? These old buildings presumably older buildings. And the much-vaunted breakout count Calculate Yeah we've talked in numerous podcasts recently about the steps that Iran is taking away from the JCP in attempts to pressure the United States to come back to the table. But I think beyond those steps there were a couple other things in some recent statements that got you nervous Jeffrey. Yeah because you know a lot of the things. Iranians have done are ultimately reversible. You know they can't they said like oh well we're GONNA accumulate. Lsu Now at a faster pace rather than ship it out like well okay but if we come back to the deal and you patch things back then you just pack up and ship it out again right so so. A lot of that stuff is reversible. There have been two things happening. That are not getting any attention that are causing a more anxiety because they go to the question of. How effective are we going to be at detecting a covert program? Because as I've said a million times I do not believe that the Iranians are going to say. Hi We're done. We're building a bomb. We're using Natanz you have X. number of weeks to bomb this facility or we will have the material that just does not seem like their mo right whenever they get a point where they are done with the deal internally. They're not gonNA tell us they're just going to start sticking centrifuges under a mountain somewhere so it's so important to make sure that we can see all of the steps leading up to that and there are two things in recent reports that really bother me one is that Iran has started manufacturing. Centrifuge rotors bellows with carbon fiber. That is not subject to agency monitoring right so this is like really down in the weeds. But one of the cool things about the. Jcp is it placed monitoring on the workshops that actually make the centrifuges those the best part of Jesus Christ and one of the one of the things that made that ineffective mechanism was that generally speaking when when this whole thing started carbon-fiber was being imported by Iran. And they were supposed to import it through a procurement channel. The I could look at it and then it would go sit under surveillance and there was a provision. That's it you know. They could make their own material to if they wanted but if they did that then the I would have to be able to inspect them material and they would have to go. Sit under surveillance and you know like that was not a perfect deal but now Iran has basically started. They've left the manufacturing process under safeguards or containment and surveillance. I guess is the phrase I should use. They've left it under containment and surveillance but they've begun bringing in material that is outside of this process and some people say well that's because they're importing it from the black market. Which would be worrisome. Right because it means they have an access to a supply that we don't know about But equally worries because I I you know me with my experience with North Korea. I think we might be underestimating countries domestic abilities. We know they have talked about. They have shown us. Plants for producing carbon. Fiber is a big question about whether it's strong enough for Roeder's regardless whether it's one or the other they now have a source of carbon fibre. That's outside of monitoring that they are turning into centrifuge centrifuges in front of the I eight Yay. It has to really cause you to worry whether there's another facility someplace That could be turning carbon-fiber into centrifuges that are never going to be seen by the I eight years so that that's causing me a lot of anxiety and then the second thing is under the JCP the only place that Iran could you mechanical testing of centrifuges. They could either do it at Natanz or they do it at the Tehran Nuclear Center. And that's the only place to do mechanical testing. And I am if it was involved in Richmond at all needed to be at Natanz. There is now this one reference to a new location for mechanical testing of centrifuges. Which just you know just as a practical matter. It raises the safeguards burden for the Guy. Right and and at least to me services. A warning like it's nice that they told the about this one. But it's a reminder that that if there are centrifuges that are potentially being manufactured outside of this structure God knows where they're getting tested so I I just you know this isn't like Oh my God. There's a hole in the deal because there is still a lot more surveillance on their central workshops than there was before the deal but now the Iranians are starting to chip away at the stuff. I really care about and just has me a little nervous. It was back to. I mean I think all of this you wrap it up by saying these. Things would be solvable in. A climate of political goodwill other as if Iran is either importing carbon fiber manufacturing or manufacturing robust enough carbon fiber itself. There's there are ways to Italy. Call loophole there are ways to basically make Jc Pielach if Iran was seeing benefits JCP Without any benefits the JC pillay For the sanctions talk to the sanctions that we lead the podcast managing these manageable differences. Become much harder you know and so these provisions that I know I see the thing I cared most about When I first read the Jay seculow whenever that whatever that was Time is lost. Meeting was the centrifuge monitoring and the and the more complete monitoring full-frontal the fuel site. And it's it's that stuff that I worry about. It's not the breakout time. It could care less up at and and in the absence of political will you know you're seeing manifest inability not to do inspections or not site visits and then now with the carbon fiber stuff you just talked about an added layer of complexity would be the inability right now to put boots on the ground to actually go check these things out given the bad thing. Yeah and I mean the way I always looked at it it was the JCP was ultimately political agreement. Right it it was going to. It was going to live or die based on the web at the benefits that Iran was receiving were sufficient for the people who wanted a less Isolated Iran to triumph over the people. Who wanted to bomb right and so we always knew that. That was what this was a bow and the real question was. Could we give ourselves confidence that the Iranians were keeping their end of the bargain and we also knew that over time Iranian capabilities? We're GONNA grow and grow and grow right and that's why there's a whole bunch of stuff in the agreement that sunsets wasn't like we were getting an agreement where the Iranians were like abandoning science and technology in order to receive a handout from the US government. It was. Can you put in place. A structure that get that delivers benefits to people in Iran were willing to forego a bomb and as you are giving them the benefits. Can you give yourself confidence that they're doing that? And you always knew over time that their capabilities. We're going to grow in the kind of confidence that you're going to have is going to have to change and it was going to have to of all from really intensive and intrusive inspection to You know this kind of much broader approach and so like we knew that Iran was going to get better centrifuges eventually and the JCP away just accepted that. That was going to happen but we tried to put day off as long as we could so that you could actually build this political compromise and make durable in the interim what this development suggests to me is that obviously we are not building that political compromise. If anything we're talking about this trump administration is talking about how corona virus might help with regime change. So there's none of that goodwill right and and in the interim we're watching aranesp progress right the Iranians progressing and so like if they now suddenly have this access to a big supply of carbon fibre. And they're building new sites that are you know at least initially under monitoring but you know just maybe there could be some. That are right. Our confidence is dropping before we have put in place that the real durable political consensus which to me feels exactly like how things went wrong with North Korea and we know how that story ended. Which by the way as I said from the beginning if you like a nuclear arm North Korea you're GonNa love walking away from the Iran deal. That doesn't sound like a happy note. Jeffrey. I even mentioned the bad thing everyday. Read it really talk about the bad thing. It was the bad thing in the context of perhaps potential. Other bet so a lot of bad things around you but you're sitting on your toilet. No I'm sitting in a room. Filled with Iranian centrifuges. Tinkling noise. You hear is the B- Yeah that's that's right S. K. Doing its thing it. It's a happy to take us away before we go off the rails as usual. I don't have one that dead yet. We're all good everybody's healthy actually. I will tell you what I will tell you something. I don't know if this counts is uplifting but it was. It was important. Centering I ran into. I ran into an important friend of James Martin Center Nonproliferation Studies and enormous booster of the Middlebury Institute. I was taking my kids for a walk. Garlanded Park which is a big kind of nature area here in in Carmel Valley and he was exercising and we we exercised appropriate social distancing when we ran into another but we stopped in from six feet away had a brief conversation. And I. You know I've expressed my anxiety about my all the things going on in the world at the moment and as an older person he said. You know you're you're young. You're healthy families healthy. You know you get up each day and you focus on on on that fact And you know yeah you don't worry about the rest of the stuff you know and I I yeah I think it was good advice from someone who's successful and and you know fairly old now so we pot away it'll be it'll be alright I hope everybody is enjoying the podcasts. But preferably from their home or from a from six feet away from many a human outside the family We benefit obviously from your help in helping these guests on so we encourage you to hand over the patron dot com slash. Hew podcast where you can get set help For three dollars a month of your student. Five dollars a month if you are not a student where you get. Access to wear. Slacks channel in our side channel does very cool things including contributing to the Washington Post finding for the first time that the Iranians of the subject of this podcast shot down a Ukrainian civilian airliner. And some other stuff. I'm forgetting different. You remember what else that we are at this moment. Developing and open source resource to detect missile launches trial because with very technical in nature. It's GonNa work but it's awesome. It's it's service. Is this what we are? Seeing a collaborative spirit of a lot of cool people engage in the trading of cool information of because we all joy doing what we do at patron dot com slash podcast without an but Sanyo Jeff senior secretaries I've got about.

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