NFL Betting Preview: AFC East Best Bets! Key Metrics, Cam Newton health, Sam Darnold improvement
Along! That thou board with. Those. Bet You twenty bucks I can get. You can't with forty. Illnesses grand how they? Pay Debts, men his manny. It's the board podcast. Originally. The and. Right back where I? Could still pick winners. Could still make money for all kinds of people back home, and why mess up a good thing airs pain, insider and Todd. Bet. The board podcast powered by Fox. Bet where the off season has gone. We're not quite sure, but it's time for the season preview series. I'm your host todd. Irvine joined by my esteemed colleague and co-host one the only pain insider. The hell you been up to. Do you really, WANNA nobody. Should we share with listenership? What the last couple of months has been like around these parts. Go for. So we're in the process of going through a little bit of a move, of course that was put on hold given the fact that everything that's gone on the world we live in, so had it table that for about three months I, unfortunately became one of the many stricken with the good old corona virus, fortunately pretty mild case around these parts, but let me tell you pain. Being sick for about two weeks to seventeen days isn't a fun, experience or existence for anybody. Let's put it that way. Some would say you've been sick for a long time, but I wasn't sure divulge that the I didn't think Kanobi like hey. I'm damaged goods, guys well I mean I was damaged. Up more pushing towards your your your move your dealings with direct. TV You read that, says we. We can get into that as well, but our bet the board family is our extended family so I haven't really talked about any of that stuff on social media so I figured I would take the opportunity to share some of that Info. Don't sympathy or anything else had a mild case and feel pretty fortunate to be back at nearly one hundred percent, but as far as direct TV, I mean they may not be as capable sponsor for our podcast anytime soon given the way. Way that they've handled things paint. They couldn't show up once. They couldn't show of twice and the one time they did show up. The do didn't want to do the work he was supposed to because he claimed that I didn't have the system regulations. There are too many boxes I mean. Yes, having eleven plus boxes is a little bit much, but at the same time you're paid to do a job. Come do the job. Don't tell me you don't feel like doing it. Like you not showing up for work I will. Kind of of my own boss, but no getting. For. Tough situation and I hate to doom and gloom, but. Soon as Amazon by the NFL, and you don't get the NFL package through direct. TV they're going to be. There'd be hurting, so oh, there's there's no doubt I mean, and I put out a poll. Yesterday and social media was a little bit surprised. I think by how much of the social community actually has gone the court cutting out, because as you and I know. Tran Channel Surfing. Either cable or direct TV can often be a challenge, but I think it's the way things are going, and when you have other options available, and there's no longer monopoly. There's no doubt the companies that don't evolve and seem to advance are going to find themselves left in the dust. Absolutely I mean the only reason I have direct TV as sports, fans for the baggage is is it I don't have a for any of the? Name of the game I mean that's the only reason it's there. So. We'll see exactly what happens, but I'll keep you posted. As we record some of these hopefully direct TV's in because we know, we have major league baseball cranking up later this week. We have a little bit of NBA Nhl. The rise in starting to return normalcy in the sports world I guess that provides the Segue as we go into what AFC a good place to start for us to kick things off. Yeah, we're going to do things a little different this year I know everyone is kind of looking for a bit of an escape. And so we'll provide. That will do exactly like we did with the off-season podcast with free agency in the draft. We're going to split this up into eight parts. Go a little bit deeper on each Then hopefully giving Nice valuable best bet at the end of each one so we'll try to navigate the situation. That's currently going on and. Provide the best Intel we can with. The current set of circumstances we have and. Knock it out of the park. And, one other note to for those listeners out there wondering about the college football previews. Obviously, that's day-by-day thing as we wait for the various conferences across the country to make decisions, will we? Won't. We have football in the fall? We'll of course keep you apprised with that particular schedule as the picture starts to shake out, and we get a little bit more clarity, but alas, we delve into. Into the AFC east to start things off, and of course, as always all numbers and prices provided courtesy of Fox Beck. When you look at the odds to win the AFC, we have seen a little bit of movement amid the signing of Cam. Newton to New England Patriots and moved a slight favorites at plus one. Oh Five! You're looking at the buffalo bills behind them at plus one fifty. Fifty the New York jets, plus seven fifty and pains, beloved Miami Dolphins Picking up the rear eight to one, but hey pain a little bit more optimism going into twenty, twenty, twenty, twenty, one than what we would have had this time last year, so at least you can hang your hat on that, but let's start in western. New York with the Buffalo Bills. Who Find Their win total over? Over under listed at eight and a half you do have to lay a dollar twenty to go over and when you look at Buffalo, we talk about the upcoming NFL season continuity potentially King Buffalo. Return eighty percent of their snaps from last season. The offense brings back more than ninety five percent of their contributions. A team that went ten and six last season finished second in the AFC. I'm not sure bills. Fans want us to revisit that debacle at the hands of the Houston Texans in the wildcard around twenty four consecutive seasons pain Buffalo has gone without a division title third longest active drought in the NFL ahead of only the browns and lions. You WanNa. Keep the biggest thing that will play a role in where this team and franchise goes not only this year years to come Josh Allen and what kind of improvement we should expect from the talented albeit erratic, starting quarterback up there in Buffalo. He made decent strides last season. And on the surface. If you're buffalo and you're a fan, you're looking at basic stats touchdowns. Those were up year over year. Interceptions were down. So you feel good. And, then you look at some things like completion percentage above expectation, Josh Allen proved four percent. It's still below low expectation, though and if you're looking at things like intermediate passing that was Josh Allens best attribute, especially the left side of the field, and we'll get into Stefan. Digs in his importance there, but he still just wildly inaccurate, and that's the one thing I think we struggle with because you talked to the smart guys, right? The talent evaluators like they're. Pretty adamant that that's the toughest thing teach so. When I look at Josh Allen Certainly, he improved. There's a boatload of talent. But there are some things that scare me when you kind of project ahead in hoping for this massive leap in your three. He still had the highest rate of uncatchable passes in the NFL twenty-seven percent. That's pretty pretty alarming. You look at a guy with like this monster arm, and that's why I've ruined falls in love with the writing and just throw it a country mile. Seventy two deep passes of twenty or more yards. That was the six most in the league. Only eighteen of them were completed right, it's it's really not very good and I. Don't know if you heard Doug. McDermott. There's been this little public battle between the two. He's come out and been like. Hey, we kind of want Josh Allen to check the ball down a little bit more. An Allen was like well. You know I don't want to be checked down chat either so there's been this little little battle. It's fun to say you look at Allen. Thirty third and Justin completion percentage deep throws among quarterbacks that played at least seven games. That's pretty concerning the deep ball accuracy rate actually dropped seven percent from his rookie season. So you know there's still a ton of inexperienced there. If you look at Josh Allen and you watch some of the film. He still has trouble processing quickly. Making the right reads. You'll look at how he performs under pressure. Not Good for someone is mobile, as he is a thirty fifth and adjusted completion percent pressured. So you say to yourself like he's young, he's learning. I. Just don't see some of the things that you would hope to see even when he's kept clean. Twenty Four Jessica completion percentage last season you look. Bills were they faced the twenty a bottom ten schedule the first ten weeks of the season in terms of defensive efficiency. He was twenty first in passing success rate over that period, so it looks like he's going to need more help from Brian Day ball again this season. We'll you mentioned Brian? Cabell and I think you're the first one to talk about on this podcast last year as we saw buffalo start to increase tempo and do some unique things offensively. Debut is going to be able to accomplish this offseason. Working with Alan you talked about some of the concerns as far as accuracy in the deep balls, but you feel having a whole off-season. Even one without Otas and a truncated camp will allow them to continue to take strides in the direction. We started to see over the latter portion of the scheduling. We did talk about it last season. Someone ultimately did a good job pulling that me last season every now and every now and again I. Try and get a little bit of Intel and share our listeners, although sometimes it's like trying to pry open clam to get some of that. Intel out of you there you go. So there was you mentioned that big change at happened prior to the week eleven Miami Game Buffalo Moved Brian Day ball from the field to the coach's box and that was really to. Try to get Josh Allen to the next level. Put Him in better situations. Because the bills they do use analytics. They realized after that cake walk of a schedule the first ten weeks that I mentioned they were staring at a very very tough schedule. The fourth toughest schedule of defense is the final seven weeks so with dabble in the box. The bills decided to Tambo. They would line up quicker. It was easier for debacle to kind of see what the defense was doing, and then you call. Call them more efficient play based on that effectively. It was taken more off, Josh. Allens plate and put more on his, and so you saw the bills. Their offense increased in pace, as you alluded to more three wide sets, a made a big difference, so I'm excited to see if that carries over and twenty twenty Josh Allen in the bills offense. They are going up right there in the face, a top five schedule of defenses, a top ten schedule pass defenses this year both projected to be. Significantly tougher than a year ago. I think it's important that we. Look at Josh Allen and hope that day ball even takes more office plate this year. Right more play action more throwing on first down more pre snap motion all the things that you can see across the board. Help quarterbacks in offenses and. You. Know when you look at Josh Allen. When he was best last year, it was throwing on first down. He was league average, which is good, but in terms of like success rate yards per pass attempt Josh Allen was well below the NFL average, throwing on second and third down, but you just have to make this guy's job much easier and I think when you look at play action. That's the very first step. His success rate went from forty two percent to fifty five percent when using play action yards per pass. Attempt increased to full yards. So make this job this job easier for Josh Allen. I think that's big. See what Stefan digs, bring the offense, but. Inevitably is going to help you mentioned Stefan Digs and we talked about Josh Allen. It's interesting, because if you just look at interception and touchdown, ratio or vice versa over the final eleven games of the season, Joshua, a world beater, fifteen touchdowns, only two picks, but I guess if you throw uncatchable balls, and you're launching them into the stadium or thrown into patches of green grass. You don't have to really run. The risk of having those balls picked off. By the way if. Reggie like Buffalo. We liked their head coach to. Fans of Buffalo, but it doesn't quite sound like it. Digs of course the big off season, acquisition and pro football focus actually ranked the bills receivers group is the fifth best in the League I'm sure we debate that if we feel the same way, but when you look at Stefan Digs, and what he brings over over eleven, hundred receiving yards, seventeen point, nine yards, perception, last season both careers highs, sixty percent context did catch rates in two thousand, sixteen fifty seven receptions from the ten, one thousand nine. Nine Yard level and when you look at what he can add to that receivers room alongside cool Beasley I know we've been a big fan of John, Brown and his ability to take the lid off the defense I mean Cole Beasley Underneath I mean he provides a security blanket. What kind of expectations can we have? I defined digs and I. Guess more importantly. Paint Willy be a team player Josh Allens having some of these problems with deep accuracy. So, bottom line Stefan digs gives Josh Allen, his best received target as a pro. So that's huge. We saw similar style receiver. That's not nearly as good and John Brown kind of flourish in last season with buffalo so. This is interesting. I don't know where John Brown fits. A, certainly I don't think can have as many targets many yards. There were stuff on digs. This shouldn't come as a surprise. Though right like buffalo was really trying to trade for digs last season. They couldn't work it out with Minnesota but digs is really interesting. He's got this rare ability to run good routes. He can take the top off the defense as you alluded to, it will be a better. Deep target is great with yards. After the catch you look at yards per outrun digs average two point seven last season. No other receiver on Buffalo's above to. He's gotten ability to line up anywhere. When he ran some of his routes outside the Hashes, he was number one in the NFL three and a half yards per route run so to me. You know aside from digs. Digs being a pretty complete receiver. I think the idea is that he's going to help Josh. Allen with some of shortcomings, and that's deep passing. This was interesting to me when I was looking at because feeling gets all the credit, but digs was responsible for over forty one percent of the vikings areas last year, just a ridiculous rate, but I'm going to be intrigued to see if digs and Allen, can kind of remain patient with each other, not get frustrated i. mean there are going to be times where digs is going to be wide open, and Alan and just GonNa flat out. So we can't see the temper tantrums. We've seen with digs in the past. He's not getting the ball I think it's important actually for McDermott enable to get digs the ball. Any way possible so that when Alan inevitably does miss him deep routinely, he doesn't explode, and you know because not getting the ball enough. I think that's gonna be and arounds. Quick passes. Try to get him involved in the offense early, so he doesn't reach that boiling point when when a deep balls missed so I, obviously Stefan digs is huge thing the other guy that we wanna look out for here as Dawson knocks like man crush you here. I think he's going to be really interesting. He's talented, so I think Dawson. Knox is GONNA make. Make a big leap here. In Buffalo of course did address the receiver room as well in the draft now not using high picks. They picked up Gabriel Davis from UCF in the Fourth Round Bring Hodgson's a guy who made us a lot of money on the college football side in a six round from Oregon State so intriguing room. Nonetheless, judging by what you've said there, we can expect Buffalo's I plan offense this season against New York jets to be a bubble screen as defined digs so good I'm going to write that down right now. Look for a prop. As far as the other side of the ball is concerned, we know this is more or less been Sean McDermott. Calling Card and last season Buffalo's defense was top five in the NFL and points per game allowed total yards per game, allowed and yards per play. What do we expect from the bill? Stop Unit knowing that. Hey, this has been the group that they've leaned on heavily over the last couple of years. Should we expect them to take a step forward this year or again? Do they just have to produce at the same level? Knowing that the offense is a few more playmakers? Right like Sean McDermott is a guy that we've kind of peg from. The onset is being guy that we like of savvy. People are finally in that camp that he's a really good coach. One I noticed early is his ability to get the most guys that aren't always supremely talented. You can just tell the preparation the scheme is this blue collar approach specifically the defense? He's big on teaching the fundamentals right. These things are why his defense has been only now you look in two thousand and nineteen. The bills defense did take a step back I know the efficiency rank with sixth, so people still think it's this also munit, but they dropped four spots year over year, despite facing the second easiest schedule of offense is the second easiest scheduled pass offenses. When you really dig into the defense, there were some areas or buffalo is a little vulnerable and. They still finished six, but you know a lot of it was because of how good they were in pass. Defense number one in explosive pass defense, top five defense pass efficiency. They really buckle down. If you look when you know, opposing offenses reached thirty yard line, and because right, we talk about this all time passing larger part of the game than ever before it outweighs how poor they were in run defense. Defense, but that's got to be fixed. Buffalo's eighteenth in Russia efficiency, twenty eighth and explosive run defense I think McDermott's hoping that he brought in some scheme fit guys that he's familiar with to help you know you have morio Addison in Vernon Butler. They're gonNA help along the defensive line. Those guys that he spent time with Carolina, they added Quinn. Jefferson AJ Klein Meta cabbage to the front seven they draft. AJ EMPANADA UP. So, you know. I think they're looking for help to stop the run up in as as a good guy who can set the edge. You're expecting a year to bump I. Think from at Oliver, who was fantastic getting to the quarterback? He was also an pressurized a rookie, and so even in the back end. You Bring Josh Norman I. Think they're hoping that he's reinvigorated. Reinvigorated a little bit. He's got his old coach. Assisting knows so I, think they? They added these little parts. That weren't overly expensive. They drafted some guys on the defensive side of the ball. I think they realized they weren't as good on defense. As some of the numbers indicated when you kind of project for twenty twenty and again I'm I. Think I'm nitpicking here. But. You know you want passing defense to replicate it successful season ago because that's your strength, but the competition. If you look is going to increase. Their is jest better quarterback on the schedule and I think a huge factor. We talk about for defenses now that it's a passing league is like how vital is getting to the quarterback. There's a reason pass rusher paid to. The large sums of money. What makes me a little nervous? If I were someone thinking buffalo returns to its two thousand eighteen form is despite facing schedule of opposing offensive line's last year. That ranked thirty first in pass protection efficiency buffalo is below average pressure rate below average knockdown rate slightly above average in hurry rate so. Just kind of off the cuff here, the to horrific offensive lines in their own division in Miami and the jets that Buffalo at the played four times. Both of those units have upgraded a little bit this offseason so I think it'll be difficult when we're know talking about a defense that will face better offense across the board, and they're still some underlying issues. I'm not quite sure they get back to the two thousand eighteen form, but again still going to be a very good defense. Well as we said, the bills haven't won a division since one, thousand, nine, hundred, ninety, five, and that particular football team was led by marv Levy Jim. Kelly Thurman Thomas and Bruce Smith all in the hall of fame. Not Quite sure this bills roster has that. That many hall of famers on it, but should be a fun team to watch no doubt you mentioned the Miami. Dolphins and right now when you look at their win total at Fox bed at six and a half you do have to a dollar thirty to go under. Of course, the dolphins last season finished five and eleven, but like much different football team over the second half of the schedule than what we saw through the first seven or eight Games, the last AFC title for them came back in two thousand eight season. We're Tom Brady happened to miss fifteen games with a knee injury. And when you look at the dolphins, they've been the model of an average franchise. Seven wins a season over the last decade schedule sets up I. DON'T WANNA. Call it relatively favorably there obviously some challenges in there, but I think paying the biggest question with this team that everybody's going to ask Ryan Fitzpatrick to to how long does it take us to see the talented rookie quarterback out of Alabama assumed the reins franchise quarterback I think a while. I do and You know when you're looking at Ryan Fitzpatrick. You're looking at to a and you're looking at the new. C., Chan Gailey. To me when you're factoring in experience and system, familiarity, health even the cohesion of the offensive line, the strength of schedule and I think the inability to be as hands on as you would like this off season. This is GonNa be Ryan Fitzpatrick job out of the gate and. Yup I try not to listen to too many. People with when it comes to sports I'd like to have my own ideas and thoughts, but it is good to kind of lean on some sharp people. And I have heard a lot of people being extremely down in Miami. He's offense because of this new system under Chan Gailey and I personally don't think it's as large of a deal as most you're making it out to be. Don't get me wrong like this isn't going to be an elite dolphins offense. But you look at Miami. They finished twenty seventh inefficiency last season, and in twenty twenty they faced the most difficult schedule of opposing defenses in the most difficult schedule, passing passing defenses so like this isn't going to be a top ten offense but I. don't think it's going to be train wreck that a lot of savvy minds think and are projecting like to me the entire goal twenty twenty s to kind of see growth, see plan come together if you can improve this year, then all of a sudden and twenty, twenty one with tour, and even more draft, capital and cap space. That's when they make their move to me. The one thing that nobody seems to mention when they're talking about the dolphins offense. Being down is really why. Chat O'Shea the former C. was fired. It's because the offense was too complex for the young guys last season Brian Floor is like quickly realized his mistake, and he said like Hey, I. Don't have Tom Brady. I don't have a veteran unit. We need to make things easier. Incomes chain Galley. He actually coached Ryan Fitzpatrick for five seasons combined in Buffalo, New York so yeah Fitzpatrick. Actually had his best season as a pro in two thousand fifteen, Chan, Gailey, so he's very familiar with Chan system and Chan system is also far less complex and he spent years at the college level, so I think he's GonNa actually help to a transition as well and. And, if kind of dig into Chan galleys past, he's kind of helped and innovate, bring forward. You know some new concepts whether it's the pistol offense. He's also a big spread guy, which you know, those two things kind of compliment to a strength, so I think if you know Miami can prove a little bit on last season's efficiency ranking while playing the most difficult schedule of defense in the NFL. That's a win in my book for this offense, but I just think Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick they've spent five seasons together. There isn't going to be this massive transition period that everyone thinks in my mind. Regardless pain of WHO's calling the plays, or who's the starting quarterback under center? We know one of the dolphins biggest issues. Last season was along the offensive line, and they made it pretty apparent that that was going to be their focus. When you pick three offensive linemen, the first four rounds. We know they had a glut of picks to try and do so, but when look at this Miami Dolphins team whether it's some of the veterans. Fortify that unit or guys like Austin Jackson out of USC Robert Out of Louisiana Lafayette and Solomon Kinley Out of Georgia. Can we realistically expect this? Dolphins offensive line to take a step forward. Given the fact that it's not real hard to try and show improvement given what we saw for extended stretches last year. So you're being very kind. This was arguably the happier gentler more optimistic. Just don't suck type of podcast. We'll get into more than negatively and pessimism. By the time we get the division six seventy. This the the dolphins arguable had the worst unit with their offense of line of any in the NFL last season. If you kind of break this down five of the six linemen that took the Moshe snaps, finished one, hundred, forty, six, or worse in pass blocking win rate as a team. There were six percent worse in pass block. Win Rate then the second worst team in the Cincinnati Bengals so whether it was Josh. Rosen or Ryan Fitzpatrick under center last season, Miami allowed a pressure in two and a half seconds or less on thirty three percent of the quarterback drawbacks this offensive line. was so bad. There were actually incapable of doing anything couldn't create holes in the run game, and as you mentioned, Kristie goes out spends three of his first one hundred eleven picks on the offensive line. Left Tackle Austin Jackson might have the most upside of any tackle taken a drop only twenty. There's some concern with his strength. Hands need work. But he might have a shot start day one. The hunt is going to have a chance to compete at the starting right tackle spot before being probably in my mind is gonNA. Getting kicked a guard, but we'll see. In Free Agency? They splashed a few bucks on the old line. As well they bring in Ted. Karras at center I think he's more than serviceable. He's an upgrade their last season with David. Andrews, going down in New England. He took his first real snaps as a pro so i. think that's a positive. They inked Eric Flowers to a big deal to play left guard I think the perception is Eric Flowers while he's horrible, but if you notice, they moved him to guard last season in Washington and he was the best. Best Lineman on the team. So I think at his new position. Right we. We know he's not a tackle at this point his career, but coming home to Miami, getting kicked inside the guard. I think that's an upgrade. The question becomes is can those new pieces who you're projecting to potentially vie for starting spots at left tackle and right tackle with this limited off season is that a realistic chance will see? I just know the talent of those guys are probably better than the veteran guys that they have on the unit. Seeming it's not a ringing endorsement free the offensive line or any of the Dolphin skill position players that Ryan Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing yards last year, but two hundred forty three. Four rushing touchdowns. I'm not putting Ryan Fitzpatrick in the same classes Lamar Jackson is a game-breaker. Every time you get the ball in his hands, either so does weird there. There's no. There's no doubt about that, but a rating. That's nowhere close to what Lamar has especially in the speed factor, so if the offense of wine get settled, of course you begin to look at the dolphins skill, position players, and we know they went out this off season and focused that running back bring in Jordan Howard Matt Brita since the rushing offense, as we mentioned wrinkle last in the NFL two, thousand, nine, thousand, nine, hundred, as far as the wide receiver room Devante Parker, I think both of us extremely high on coming out of Louisville dealt with myriad. Myriad of injuries, but when he's on the football field, this is a bona fide number one I think for me. Paying the real question comes up is who becomes secondary or tertiary receivers helped Preston. Wilson isn't going to be healthy Albert Wilson. We saw missing time last year, and they bring in a variety of other guys to go along with your team. Grin and Alan hearns, Gary Jennings Junior Mac Collins. Ahah Ford. Somebody else has to emerge. You. Take pressure off a Devante Parker in the passing game. We got the seven dollar word of the day. Tertiary Love It. Not, House this case. This is still the preseason podcast. We haven't had a chance to take. Real wraps stumbling over words. The vocabulary is not quite where it needs to be. We're going to have to bear with US until we get to game speed around these Paul. Absolutely we've. We've been out of out of work here for about three months, so it's tough getting back in. It always says it's fun though weapons. I think these are interesting I. It's it's. It's a wild group. Right? I think when you kind of break down each player. And you look at their talent, and their traits with speed and size, and leaping ability and quickness and run after the catch ability. It's a really undervalued group and you mentioned Devante Parker a first round. Pick finally started eating right. Any actually likes his head coach. Now he's got the scary combination of size and speed and athleticism. He was the number one receiver in the NFL. In passer rating on contested catches last season if you are a fantasy guy from week seven through seventeen. He was the number two wide receiver behind Michael. Thomas. Everyone raved about Preston Williams last year. He was the undrafted kid out of Colorado. State probably would have been you know a third round pick, but he had some off the field issues. He tore his ACL. He's progressing nicely. They're not going to rush back, so he may miss the first couple of games, so that means I think at least early on Devante Parker, going to continue where he left off, Albert Wilson started to look himself in late November after recovering from the dislocated hip to Kim grant is a guy. that. The saints actually clocked at his pro day at a four one forty, and we kind of know is impact on special teams, but apparently if you've been following his social media's all, he's done off in this off. Season is just working on his route running. It's pretty impressive. I think there's a lot of depth here. You still have Allen hearns using be battling with Isaiah Ford for that fifth spot. Even. Get sick came on last season. Eighteen percent of the target shares from week ten on. He's just another athletic long pass catcher rumor is he's added about twelve pounds, so he can actually compete and not be a complete liability as a blocker, the running back room I hate that they moved on from Kenyan Drake, but. No Drake love the dray of the drake, there really wasn't any talent in the backfield once they made that move and if you look at Miami's run game, thirty seconds success rate nearly ten percent below league average. They go out and they got Jordan Howard. No one seems like be high on Jordan Howard. This is gonNA shock some people. But you look, he was drafted the same year as the suddenly beloved Derrick Henry Jordan Howard despite playing four or less games than Henry and playing against playing behind. Lesser Offensive. Line has more rushing yards in their career than than Henry does and I think you went out and you gotta back. With a little kind of Burston versatility with with Matthew Brita because they decided to pass the Andrea Swift, so I like that. That duo there so it's just really interesting to see the perception on Jordan Howard I think he's going to have a big role in this offense, and then if you can get Breda going as that change of pace back, doing couple things out of the backfield, catching the balls it's it's certainly an upgraded unit. Pretty wild for to hear some of those numbers talking about Jordan Howard overall career rushing numbers compared to derrick. Henry, we know the kind of deal Derrick Henry commanded this off. Season is the titans were able to get a long term deal Don Howard more or less been passed around. We'll see if you can find a home in Miami and regained some of that form. We saw when he was. The bears lead back as far as Miami is concerned. Concerned on the defensive side of the Ball Josh Boyer Replaces Patrick Graham as defensive coordinator I was floored by some of these numbers pay not that the scoring defense ranked last in the NFL in two thousand and nineteen, the only team to allow more than thirty points per game, but when you look at how Miami has performed defensively from two, thousand, seventeen, eighteen and nineteen, the team's defenses yielded a whopping thirteen hundred and twenty points the worst three year. Year stretch in franchise history. They allowed more points last year than they did. In two thousand seven, when they went one and fifteen now I know the game's different, but just try and wrap your head around some of those things. They spent a ton of money trying to go out there and get veterans game breakers. Were you happy with the offseason moves into? You think some of that talent will be realized right out of the gate with the dolphins. Dolphins change in philosophy on this side of the ball spent the most in league history. If you're looking at the big puffy fake number for an off-season, most of that money was on defense, and then you look at Chris and Brian floors they double down and added five defensive players in the first five rounds of the draft. We know Brian Floors Defensive Guy. He is ultra competitive. You know prior to join the dolphins we saw floor is basically. Dismantle boy wonder there Sean McVeigh's offense in the Super Bowl, so I know it ate at him and. Seeing, his defense, finish dead, last inefficiency dead last in pass, efficiency dead last in pressure rate any face. The fourth easiest schedule of offense is in that process. He knew he needed to change and I think where there is some optimism for the Dolphins Defense in two thousand twenty floors now has some guys that fittest scheme right and they also have experienced also have young guys with talent like Wilkins and Baker and saving Howard. This will be year to assist them and a while there was this. Tank for to a kind of thing going on, and I won't call it that because they did win five games in a lost season, the defense was trot out. Guys and you know trying to find different players to see if they could find a diamond in the rough, that could potentially contribute for future seasons and I think they did that for a couple of guys. Right Nick, need them. They found I think he's going to be a guy. That at least contributes this year. We know like versatility and being. Being able to move, guys around is important in this Bella Check Flora's type system, so they even discovered Eric. Rowe is a more capable safety than corner, so I think those are the kind of things they were doing on the defensive side of the ball. Twenty eight different players started on defense for for Miami. They were the third most injured defense and again they're trying to mix and match to see what they had so between being inexperienced in being a mash unit with injuries and and very little talent. I think there's a lot of optimism here. You talk about poor lock as well taught. The dolphins only recovered three of their opponents, seventeen fumbles league average in two thousand, nine, hundred forty seven percent defensive recovery rate, so they should have recovered eight instead of three. You're talking about five more turnovers. That's going to impact games so I don't think the defense is going to become a lead overnight. Overnight. You're just looking again for relative improvement, right? Just be average, and I think even for this season there is it only took US thirty seven minutes or thereabouts into the first preseason podcast of the season to get just be average jumped out of you. Buddy got scares me I'm at thirty four minutes here so hopefully. You didn't mess something up in the recording process I in that. Ballpark I'm looking at the clock because I actually didn't start my clock on time, so at least I was plus or minus three minutes. Proud of myself. Okay, perfect so. Even, I think bad is good this year right if you go from being one of the worst defenses by along mile to kind of competing in that twenty two to twenty five range. I think that's going to be pretty good so to me. There's more talent defensively. There's more experience. There's a greater familiarity with floors this scheme and then you're going to have the likely positive regression both the injury and turnover front defensively. If you're looking at the defense and all three levels, we know you mentioned what the secondary looks like the big spend. Their I'm Byron Jones, we know the big names that they added you. Look at the linebacking core potential upside with Jerome Baker McMillan. Which group are you most optimistic about? In which one do you have? The biggest concerns about headed into the twenty twenty season I think you're really happy with the corners that you have and some versatility there at safety. We'll see what they decide to do with that back F again. Brian floor is like really I thought for style guy, so you know he wants to be able to go. Go snap snap where he can have his free safety, come down and cover the slot and vice versa. The linebacker core is interesting, a couple of young guys there with rake on McMillan and Baker you're hoping those guys can take the next step Vince Beagle. They absolutely love. They just stole him in a trade for Kiko Alonzo from the saints, the Interior of the line is where they're hoping there some improvement because they were very bad. Stopping the run, so you won't Wilkins to take that year to step really what they're hoping for, and they're not quite sure they have it on the roster yet. They really need a true edge rusher. Men They Lose Taco Charlton. They chose to lead a move on. It was a great cheap pickup for beach in Kansas City. So features happy about that move. I just think next year you're going to look at a real onus on going out and getting a pass rusher. That's kind of the one one area that concerns me a little bit for the dolphins this year. Being able to get that pressure again we have seen. Whether it's flora's or Bella check. They usually get pressure by scheme, so let's see if if that will happen in twenty twenty again van Ginkel comes back from from injury, so they're hoping to use him in pass. Rush situation so hopefully you can up the pass. Rush rate here in in twenty twenty. Should be an interesting team to watch the dolphins benefit by getting an extra home game that they otherwise would've lost with the London Games off the docket and we saw the win total respond accordingly. They're very curious to see how this team gets price in the market week to week and more importantly how they perform which I guess takes us in a logical direction to a team. That's a let's call it a minor change pain to the face of their organization in the New England Patriots whose win total at Fox sits at nine. You do have to lay a dollar twenty five to go over. The AFC division favorites, twelve and four a season ago of course won the division before losing to the titans in the wildcard around when you look at some of the numbers that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were able to accomplish there, simply mind boggling. Straight division titles and NFL record seventeen consecutive seasons with ten plus wins also NFL record, they've been above five hundred versus the AFC in every season since divisional realignment in two thousand and two and last season marked the first time since two thousand nine that the Patriots failed to secure a first round by the playoffs I can go on and on, but I think the biggest question that you have with new. England obviously, this season Cam Newton takes over for Tom Brady. We know cameras on the market a lot longer. Longer than he probably would have liked didn't get a long term deal or guaranteed starter post. I'm not GonNa say the Patriots Bringing Cam. Newton is a reflection of Jarret Stidham, but when you have the chance to bring in a former MVP and cam, and you don't have questions about his health released on the surface. What do we think are logical expectations and assumptions? We can make about cam learning a new offense and a new franchise. They very different culture, taking over for arguably the greatest quarterback ever played a position. You're right. We can't make any assumptions and I think that's big I know when he was signed I. Think it's evident that he's got a start, but there is a rumor report that came out. Just a couple of weeks ago. That said Hey. This is an open competition were not sure. Cams GonNa know the offense well enough, and it could be stems job week one. There's a lot of rumors floating around out there. There's also a lot of people that are talking about Cam not being one hundred percent healthy. I don't know if that's the case. I think he looks pretty good. I. Think what we're going to hear from now until week one is you know from journalists and media, members and three surgeries in three years. Who knows if he's healthy I just? There's a reason the contract is literally zero risk for New England. So whatever you thought about doing dirt's did him under center signing Camden make the Patriots worse in fact when I look at our power ratings, we increase them. So like from what I am told here just on the injury front the Liz Frank Foot injury. Going to be fine from that. That is a something that can take twelve weeks to heal just enough to play through pain worse. Case situations you one hundred percent healthy in a year. Cam is not genetically average, right? We're now like ten months into this. This foot issue I. Don't think it's a problem you know. We've seen Dr Chow kind of rate publicly that this is a thing the to shoulder surgeries I think you want to clarify those because they just get tossed out there as him. Having potentially issues with a shoulder was initially like this makeshift job to the rotator cuff. That was a quick fix surgery to try to get him back up, you know the second one was to the same shoulder that was supposed to be the long term fixer. So it's not like he had these intensive shoulder surgeries, and then completely blew it out again and had to fix the same exact thing. That's not what happened so to me when I looked at Cam last season in the two games that he played, the shoulder was a positive thing because he couldn't really step into any throws. Because the foot injury, it was all shoulder and he seemed fine. I think you have to look at Cam what he was before the injuries. I think that's kind of what we're potentially going to see here. As he learns the new system when he was fully healthy, the first eight games a two thousand eighteen years. Light it up right. It was better than some of two thousand fifteen MVP seasons, and if you look camps I games in two thousand eighteen, while learning a new system under norv Turner, which is which is important dimension, right new system, then new system now completed a career, high sixty seven percent of his throws over that stretch. The panthers offense with eighth in passing success rate fifth in explosive pass rate over that eight game stretch six into record. Then, the rotator cuff injury happens. He tries playing through it. He was not very successful doing that. I think there's two things that we absolutely no CAM is at this point extremely motivated to prove people wrong. His work ethic through this like last ten months has been through the roof, and in second thing is bill check in his offense? Coaches are going to put cam in the best position possible to succeed if you're a major, it's fan and you're kind of. Looking at this offense, it's going to be wildly different, obviously, because defenses have to defend the CAM. Newton baked just much differently than what they've seen. In Layman's terms, there's going to be like more defenders around the box than in the back end in coverage, the absolute inverse of how you defended Tom, Brady, so you know you're looking at this as cam. The passer that Tom Brady is in was absolutely not, but he can pass the. The ball very well especially when he's healthy enough to force defenses to have to put more defenders in the box, and so I just think that we're going to see a motivated cam. Newton being put in the best position possible, and that is why he signed with New England, because he knows they're going to put him in the best situation possible, and that's going to mean potentially big things for him moving forward if he is. Flourishing in this system. Well motivated Cam Newton is one thing, and you obviously hope he's got a chance to go out there when the job and prove that he can get back to those two thousand eighteen levels mentioned if he's healthy, but does he have the weapons he needed on this roster. We saw the Patriot receiving core last year. Completely underwhelmed an uncharacteristic by Jewish settlement, probably cost them that playoff game against the titans wasn't healthy, and you know with the wear and tear on him. Nikiel Harry didn't have the chance to find the continuity in his rookie campaign. That New England obviously thought. Thought very highly of different where they drafted him out of Arizona State. You look around in that room for difference makers, playmakers, and we'll get to the running game in a minute. Does New England have the weapons they need in the passing game to help aid camps transition from Carolina in the system. He ran there to Josh. mcdaniels in Patriots would like to run this season. Let's be candid here. New England doesn't have a good group of weapons. There is not one receiver tight end returning that eclipsed one point nine yards per outrun, not one receiver tied end returning. Had positive value over league average at that position, and that includes Julian Element. If you go back to last season from the Baltimore game. In Week nine through the Tennessee wildcard game, the Patriots- had a forty percent passing success rate over that period five percent below league average the. Simply, put here. The weapons are like bottom of the barrel. If I'm going glass half full. The weapons that are returning could perform better than you know kind of what we last saw. You have a rookie and Jacoby Meyers last year who flashed in the preseason? He might be a nice contributor. In year to Julian Atl Menu, mentioned with the massive drop, but he's playing through an abdomen injury that required surgery. They got nothing out of Mohammed to because he had an ankle injury that. That also required offseason surgery Nikiel Harry got a late start to the season because of an injury that landed him on the reserve list until November, so we kind of know how hard it is for rookie receivers to get acclimated into a system now think about a guy that's missing the first ten games and camp all that like I think he probably has a very good year to. New England was the third most injured offense. In the NFL, they're the six most injured receiver group, the most injured running back group so. You know we kind of project. Some positive aggression on the injury front there. If Cam shows, he can be more mobile. It's going to make jobs I think of the receivers far easier when they're running routes sensing less bodies in the secondary than they've ever seen before with Tom Brady quarterback, which is interesting, you know the run game I think should improve and. And you are losing your all World Offensive Line Coach Dante ski that's scary, but this will be. Isaiah wins true sophomore season Marcus. Cannon battled injuries all last season David Andrews the starting center misty entire year. He's back. The depth along the offensive line is better, and I think the one thing we made note of last season. Todd the Patriots while being. Very forward, thinking and analytical. They also loved to place math mauch football with with with a fullback. and. They use lots of twelve personnel. Both their fullbacks were injured and missed large portions of last season, so they couldn't really use those bulk packages. Even everything I mentioned there. The Patriots Offensive Line finished ninth and adjusted line yards fifth in justice, accurate allowed. They were below average eighteenth in win rate, but again I think that improves with a healthier unit so to me. It shouldn't surprise anybody if the offensive line is top ten especially when you're projecting out for twenty twenty. They're going to face the second easiest. Easiest schedule of pass rushers so to me. The offensive line needs to be the strength of this offense if CAM. Newton is healthy and can provide that run element defenses are GONNA have to put more men in the box. It's going to open up the past game and help some of these weapons that we think might not be as great as other teams have. It's pretty interesting when you look at the Patriots. Running back room this season, Sony Michelle clearly wasn't the same back last year that he was in his rookie season, two, thousand, eight, hundred, nine, hundred twelve yards, and two hundred forty seven carries, saw, his average dropped from four and a half yards of pop to three point seven. Obviously, there's plenty of depth in that room and. And you look at. James Rex burkhead Brandon bolden Damian Harris Jj Taylor. We know white has emerged as a pass catcher. We'll see how he gets utilized with CAM or Jarret Stidham starting quarterback, so patriots of course GonNa need playmakers to emerge defensively when we look at new, England, that was their calling card especially early on in the season. Although we saw that unit, really take. Take on water as a strength of schedule improved, they were the NFL's number, one scoring defense, total, defense and third down defense, but what's crazy about the patriots pain and I'm not sure if this is an indictment of the pressure, the defense was under, or the offense is inability to score. They were twelve no last year when they allowed fewer than twenty points Owen five when. When they gave up more than twenty plus includes their playoff game. How do we see New England's defense continuing to evolve? We know that we're bill. Belichick has fingerprints all over one particular unit on this football team. Absolutely insane juries at I don't need a defensive coordinator I'm going to be even more hands on I'm gonNA shoulder that responsibility as well and they were fantastic, but. Bottom line. The defense is going to be good again I don't believe there is good as their number one efficiency ranking that they ended last season with, and I know strength. The schedules included in the efficiency metrics, but it's rare that you can face the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The easiest schedule passing offense is the easiest schedule of passed protecting offensive lines, the second easiest schedule of Red Zone offenses. That's what the Patriots Defense Face, last season and something. We've kind of talked about. About over the years is trending metrics. You typically want to wait games heavier that have occurred more recently because that kind of reflects the current makeup inform, and you're kind of gradually lessening. What happened say sixteen weeks prior in week one now, obviously week-to-week, there's these anomaly performances, and you never wanna over just off sixty minutes of football, but trending metrics are vital. I think to kind of capture the current form so when you're looking at waited. Defense New England actually finished fourth inefficiency. And, you know Kinda why I'm nitpicking here is we heard todd from for media in journalists that this was the greatest defense in the history of the League after eight. My I. Don't get me. Don't get me started. Actually someone who bet the jets on Monday night football against. No one was better and. I think we kind of did nothing but bang the table last season and say hey, there's there's just no way it was kind of the one time in what feels like a decade where we kind of yelled to the heavens that New England was overrated and they actually were. But you look over the I like eight weeks of the season. New England didn't plan offense that finished better than twentieth inefficiency. Their average opponent offensive rank was twenty seven over that stretch. You just kind of look at this right? The murderers row of quarterbacks. The Patriots face the first eight weeks. Dot, an injured Big Ben Josh Rosen Luke Falk Josh Allen a less than one hundred percent Colt McCoy. You had a rookie. Daniel Jones, then you had you know your boy. I game vaccine, Ghost Mono Sam Darnold and then you had a struggling Baker Mayfield so. You, don't get me wrong like new. England's Defense Hamlet Business in those games, only a lot of thirty four percent offensive plays degrade successful the eight weeks. But, I just you know to me. I didn't see I didn't love where they were kind of projecting in trending. You look at what they faced the final eight weeks of the season when New England steps up in class, they face offenses with an average efficiency rank of fourteenth. and. They're passing success. Rate Defense gets beat up. They'll have forty six percent pass great successful over the final eight regular season Games, one percent below league average does about sixteen percent shift downwards as competition rose so I'm mentioning this. Because the schedule of offense that New England faces this year. They're projected to improve by our numbers by about thirty five percent. When you look at this Patriots, defense. They obviously had a lot of losses or any that concerns you whether it's Danny Shelton. Kyle annoyed Jimmy Collins Orlando Roberts Doron harmon. All five of those guys ironically enough end up with former coordinators on the Patriot staff going either the lions dolphins. Is there one of those guys that you think could provide a bigger hole than the Patriots will lead you to believe or do you feel? Hey, it's rinse. Rinse repeat New England it's the sum of all parts rather than evaluate any individual. That's kind of the notion. Right that bell checks defense is is about the sum of its parts and the system in the scheme. Get the most out of guys if they do their job, and it just becomes this plug and play, and that the defense is going to be able to absorb all of these departures, and it's all Bella check one hundred percent. To Me Danny Shelton Doron Harmon Kyle van Noy were key Cox, and if you kind of Look Kyle van. Noy Had one hundred twenty percent more pressures than the second best pressure guy returning for New England this season. I know. The Patriots drafted Joshu Out in Michigan with the sixtieth pick. They think help in that area. Is this pass rush specialist this season? We raved about Doron harm during our free agency podcast series back in March. He had the second. Most coverage snaps. Patriots safety last season, only a lot of thirty three passer rating gave up a league best zero point one three yards per coverage nap among qualifying safeties Danny Shelton has great out a top thirty seven interior linemen, according to Pf back-back season so. Those guys those losses are going to be felt a little bit. I think when we're looking at at you. Know this patriots defense, there is going to be a little bit of a regression. The kicker here though taught opposite of the Patriots injury-plagued offense in two thousand nineteen, the Patriots Defensive One of the healthiest in the League, so you might even see a little health regression on that side of the ball I i. just think we're looking at just a slight tick down defensively from New England here. Should be a team that is what is interesting to watch this season plenty of intrigue around them, of course with Cam Newton, and for what feels like the first time Pain Ages New England will have they've always had a target on their back, but his schedule that the NFL schedule makers having exactly handpicked for them, or so it feels where they'll get challenged plenty games in prime time. We'll see if. The changing of the guard at quarterback allows new. England continued doing what they've done. And that's just winning the NFC east over and over and over again. A team that hasn't won the NFC east in seems like an eternity would be the New York jets who find their win total at Fox at six and a half flat, seventy-nine nine a season ago. Good enough for third in the division. They, of course they're seeking their first AFC's title since two thousand two back then Sam. DARNOLD was all of five years old, losing record and four straight seasons. Only the browns have a longer active streak in that department, and when you look at their playoff, drought got nine straight seasons without making the postseason to third longest active drought in the NFL ahead of only the browns and bucks now we're not all glass half empty with the New York. York jets this team did go six into their final eight games after starting the season one and seven and going six and two down the stretch, only the Ravens won more games from week ten through the end of the regular season. I think the biggest question you have to ask. If you're trying to handicap. The jets painting create a Realistic Outlook on the twenty twenty season. How is the relationship between Sam Darnold a store starting quarterback and Adam geeses head coach and year to continue to evolve in feel. We should believe they need to show early on that. Hey, this thing is working, and the jets finally have a starting quarterback and head coach combination that can make this franchise relevant. Let, six and two you mentioned is the only reason gay kept this job so I'm not sure if jets fans were awfully happy about that. I was in without question. My least favorite team to dig into this off season has been the New York jets. There is just so many variables and like this wide range of projections. If Adam gays. Gets his head out of his ass and has a clue again like he did when he was. You Know Win playoff games with temperatures in Denver. And Sam Darnold kind of makes this third year leap. The jets could be a fringed playoff team. But if gas you know, keeps being difficult and trying to fit square pegs into round holes, in Sam, darnold looks like twenty-three-year-old, not being put in ideal situations, you have four or five win jets team especially when you look at schedule Far and away the most difficult schedule Naef AFC belongs to the jets, the second largest increase in schedule difficulty year over year in the NFL, and even in terms of miles traveled the season for the jets. That's well above league average to so. GIESSEN darnold Kinda half to simultaneously I think become better versions of themselves as competition rises, or this season's going to be an absolute disaster, and there's hope for Sam Darnold I. Know a lot of people don't believe that I know there are. Folks that came out and said Hey. You know when you look at the first two seasons of quarterback in their makeup and their numbers. This will kind of tell you if there's there's. Any potential there and some of those numbers don't look great. For me the arm towns there. He's only twenty three years old. I think this is going to surprise people, but despite this being year three, he's actually going to be younger than rookie quarterback. Joe Borough. So you know if you look at Sam Darnold. And when he's put an ideal situations. He's already above. Average quarterback and I was looking at some of these numbers when Sam darnold kept clean in the pocket, he justin completion percentage of eighty one percent is higher than Patrick Mahomes last year. When Adam Gates allowed Sam Darnold to use play action. his passer rating was seventeen points Ir, his pass per attempt increased two point three yards. The problem was Dr only through with like a play fake element, twenty four percent of the time twentieth highest rate in the League so I think as needs to use more play action especially with young quarterback when Gates let Sam darnold operate from shotgun. His passer rating was eighty one points higher. The jets you shotgun three percent below league average so. You know he just wasn't put in great situations. My feeling is if darnold can be kept clean. And when he was using play action, and he was allowed to pass from shotgun, he looked pretty damn good to me. He just wasn't enough of those positive situations. Then you look, and the poor guy was pressured a league high forty two percent of the time on dropbox. Thank. God you know, Joe. Douglas comes in. It's his first full off season and immediately spends resources to kind of rectify that issue goes outside Connor McGovern at center. He allowed one sack last season finished eleventh in pass, blocking efficiency huge upgrade over Jonathan Harrison picks up a veteran guard and Greg Van Roten finished top twenty among all guards in pass blocking efficiency. Then he goes out spends draft. Draft capital on what he believes and potentially I believe is the best left tackle prospect in the draft six, seven, three, hundred sixty five pound MCI back in Louisville. So you know you need guys to protect your bass as your best asset end to me. I think this is a started helping Sam Darnold. It's just now on Adam. Gates at this point to make same job easier. and to me, it's it's clear if you look at what Sam Darnold face with last season. He, wasn't he had a really difficult job and to me like is seemingly. Dot Morgan's over the years you know. He just loves running the ball into the line of scrimmage for some reason on second long. This is something I think we've talked about todd the last few years. Even when he's in Miami, his first year with the jets case runs the ball, second and ten or more, the third highest rate in the NFL, and so like aside from the obvious that it's not smart to like waste one of your three downs. The problem is the jets were twenty seventh and I down success rate sixth worst on first down in the league. So you know you're on first down. Gaze pisses away second down now you have this young quarterback. Sam darnold staring at third mile eight point one yards to go is the jets average third-down distance last season? I. You know. I just think this is really difficult to kind of Throw Sam. Darnold into this mess and you're hoping that gaces a little bit better this year. You look also. Fourth most injured offensive line I just think there is no injured receiver group I. There was nothing that was favoring Sam Darnold last season. They'll just put it that way. Well when you look at the way, the jets have gone about it. You mentioned the offensive line was the question I was GonNa ask, but I think you hit on it. In great depth, there may as well focus a little bit on the weapons, lady and bell of course was the big signing last off season we know the back, and forth between him and Adam Gates, but bell four yards at touch, an eighty three point three scrimmage yards per game both were career lows. We know. He sat out the season before the team loses Robbie Anderson. The panthers this off season. He led the team with over three thousand receiving yards and twenty touchdowns over four seasons. Seasons Backer Jamison crowder, seventy eight catches, hundred twenty two targets, but just eight hundred thirty three yards. They add Bershad Perriman fourth team in four years, but comes off his best season since two thousand sixteen when he was in Baltimore. Averaging almost eighteen yards, a reception draft Denzel mims and I think pain for me. One of the more intriguing battles as far as skill position town is concerned as at tight end. We're Ryan Griffin became the man, but both you and I were extremely high Chris Herndon, he just happened to miss last season after a great rookie campaign dealing with a myriad of injuries. Absolutely no doubt about it. Let's start with Flavian. Bell I mean. Brutal you're hoping. His production increases when you look at value over average player at running back, bell finished last season seventeen percent below average running back. He was paid the third highest rate, so that's not very good. The the lines bad thirty first and ingested line yards, so they weren't creating space for him, but bell wasn't really doing much after first contact fifty first among running backs in yards after contact per rush, so you're hoping better line Belva more familiar with the system in year two and that he's a little more comfortable. Comfortable right? Maybe he's in better shape after being out of football for a season. So that's GonNa be you know I think beneficial? There's a massive uptick obviously in difficulty for Sam. Darnold in terms of passing defense is faced were also projecting run defense scheduled to be you know one of the five easiest on bell has to be a factor this season. You mentioned Jamison crowder. You know. I think he's. He's a serviceable I. Rec-, reason, good slot receiver Denzel. mims comes in kind of a freakish combination of size and speed. He's got a ridiculous catch radius, but he's raw rookie receiver right hard time impact in the game especially now with everything going on this off season Bouchard, paramount came in. Monster at the end of last season in this fun gun, Tampa offense both Evans in Godwin. Injured in you know so paramount was kind of that guy i. think he you know. He proved himself. So you know to me? The jets are relying on some some interesting parts. Here you're you're prey Denzel mims contributes. You got to pray that paramount. Kind of looks like he did towards the end of last season Quincy noon was we know is out for the season with the neck. Injury Chris Herndon is really interesting. Everyone is raving about him heading into last year after a great rookie season, he was suspended the first four weeks. Then he battles these nagging hamstring injuries I think he is a really really interesting. Pass catching option this year especially maybe late rounds of your fantasy draft, so I'm I'm in on Chris earned so the weapons are going to potentially be healthier. There is certainly more upside the weapons that they. They have this year and again it just comes down to gaze pudding. Sam Darnold and better situations going to be an interesting team. I think I'm higher on the jet than some, but it was interesting to hear you outline the the possibility for upside as fringe playoff contender things break the right way, but if this train goes off the tracks, you could be talking about an absolute dumpster fire in the jets, looking for yet another new head coach to try and take them where they need to go with a young quarterback. Who I. Think is just barely scratching the surface. In, Sam Darnold. At least paying for the first time in recent memory, the AFC staffers, all sorts of injury, because you don't have a massive overwhelming, favourite, and I think when you look at these rosters up and down all four. These teams that we've discussed in great detail have questions. The biggest question for me is which coaching staff is able to create that continuity to allow his team to get out of the gates quickly. And maybe put a little bit more pressure on the competition, so for big teams broken down in great detail as only pain, insider can do. Of course you can follow him on twitter at Paine. Insider, I'm todd firm and you can follow me there and more importantly follow the podcast twitter account at bet the board and encourage you to read all of the great articles that you've seen published on the site talking about strength schedule analysis, not based off of last year's results, but more on this season's projected win totals scheduling spots, one of our staff writers did an outstanding job and tremendous series, but paying this podcast is over bef- until we have a best bet and as always our. Our best bet is brought to you. Courtesy of Fox were the biggest name in sports is now the biggest name in sports betting now available for Real Money Wagering in New Jersey and Pennsylvania encourage you to check out the Fox dot website, plenty of great promotions, specials, and all sorts of deposit incentives, but you can still download the APP from absolutely anywhere and keep a prize of all the latest and greatest line movement, not only in the NFL, but all of your other favorite sports pay where we going for the best bet of this first preview podcasts for the twenty twenty season friend. It's going to be a prop and I think that's going to be something. Maybe we discuss in. Other iterations of this podcast there will be some win totals. Obviously, we're not betting eight win totals, but with those there is an element that. AH GAMER TO GETS missed. Now I don't think that is likely right Lee. Just make simply too much money for this. To probably happen, but you could have a scenario where possibly team gets infected in too many guys. Catch cove in in your out for a week at a time I I just think there is some elements to the win totals that are difficult enough as it is because you need a larger edge to invest in those tire money up for five and six months now all. All of a sudden you know you MISSA game. A game gets off the schedule and those become void, so we will have win totals or twos that we really liked that. We think there's enough edge to overcome those elements, but a lot of the props I. Think is what will attack and Fox bet as you alluded to. Has One of those and there is some juice. Juice attached to this but I think for us. It's all about an edge, and you're looking at the dolphins week one starting quarterback. We WanNa go with Ryan Fitzpatrick. It's minus three hundred, which indicates your break. Even point is seventy five percent Ryan Fitzpatrick going to get the the first shot here especially with everything that we broke down with the dolphins. He is Ben Chan Gailey. GAILEY system for five seasons. We've talked about the left. Tackle and right tackle situation for the dolphins being up in the air, potentially starting rookie guys I. Don't think you're throwing into that situation early on. We know at this point. He looks healthy from the hip surgery, but his conditioning isn't all the way there, so you're going to want him to be able to protect himself. Again going back to the offensive line with all these young guys and cohesion, the cohesion in continuity isn't going to be there out of the gate. It's going to be weeks. You know seven, eight, nine and ten. Potentially. We talk about this off season where the League is pressing for one preseason game, and the players want absolutely none. The idea that too is going to start week. One with zero preseason to me is pretty laughable when you figure out other elements. Elements that I kind of just discussed. There's a reason Ryan Fitzpatrick roster. He is a great teacher. For sure right. We know how savvy is out of Harvard, but he knows this system the best and so to me. You're looking at an edge here. That is at least twenty percent something you will not find and weeks one for sixteen betting on any you know point, spread this to me and you knock on wood here unless Ryan Fitzpatrick catches cove it. Near the start of the season or you know something awful happens to him outside the realm of football. He is your week one starting quarterback, and so I have no problem here laying minus three hundred on something that should be priced more like a ninety seven percent chance of happening than a seventy five percent chance of happening massive edge. That's what I was Gonna ask pain I mean we know you're connected and you have sources down. Send Sick. I'm pleased insecure. Can you send security detail and may not not referring to that you send security detail and make sure Ryan Fitzpatrick lives has next six weeks in a bubble. We can try and protect him to make sure that we're able to cash this. Bet You know come early. September I think we'll be fine. I think we'll be fine hopefully. The beard acts as a protective on top of the mask. I hear it as a viable alternative to an Airbag, but quote me medical proof in front of me if you find yourself with a bearded man or woman in some cases. In the front seat of a car, so Ryan Fitzpatrick to assume the reins as dolphins with one starting quarterback. Your I bet the best of the twenty twenty football season man of long to say those words and glad they finally get a chance to come out of my mouth. Any parting shots pain is we put a bow on the first of what will be eight divisional previews to get our loyal listeners ready for what should be an interesting, intriguing and more importantly, hopefully full NFL season this year. Nothing. We got eight more this this one. This one rolled long. I am. Potentially going to cut down some nuggets moving forward I didn't realize our ten minutes here. Who've? It'd be like. Hours of content here and we really. We shortchange the jets defense. We're giving people a little. Yeah. We didn't even mention Jamal Adams we didn't even is named, didn't even come hopefully Jason Greg Williams play Nice with each other this season because those two don't really like each other so. Never Green your. Win Total has been pummeled under from seven to six and a half. Always to keep tabs in that, but as you mentioned plenty of great content, we know our listeners will have five or six weeks to try and digest all of it hopefully, listen to the podcast multiple times to make sure they're ready to go before pain insider I am taught firm and thanks to all of you coming back for what pain our fifth season doing this. I can't even keep track anymore started in September of two thousand fourteen, so whatever the monkey math is on that. It's been six years. Longer than I thought yeah, that'd be. The fact that we've been able to keep this. Tandem. In. Harmony well I'm speech. and. Barry Self I think I think my signals breaking up on that note. We're closing up shop here so for pain insider I'm todd firm and best of luck with all of your off season, AFC east investments, and with the Ryan Fitzpatrick ticket head week one. We'll see you at the window. Thanks for listening to bet the board you can catch todd and pain every Monday Wednesday and Thursday during football season, breaking down the biggest NFL and college football games, and to make sure you don't miss any free. Best Bets subscribed to bet the board on I tunes Google. Play spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.