The Matt Bernier Show - Recap Edition - June 24, 2019
Blue. Going. I welcome into map Vernier show on TV. My name is Matt Bernier. You can follow me on Twitter at Bernier underscore, Matt. This is the recap addition gonna go back, take a look at a couple of graded stakes races from this past weekend. The weekend of June. The twenty second we'll kick things off with the Ohio derby from Thistle down. We'll take a look at the lone great one of the weekend, the United Nations from Monmouth park Nimal rip through bit of a steak montage. Keep this, this recap addition, relatively tight. I don't wanna go to too long in many of these because I don't know how much there is to really dissect about these races. But we will go through those two big races. And go on from there as always wrap up with the weekends best as far as buyers concern. How are we listen to this thing? Thank you for doing so YouTube sound cloud. I tunes video dot the dot coms. All Spotify a, however you listen, please rate review and subscribe questions, comments concerns beneath the video player on YouTube or directly to me on Twitter at Bernier underscore, Matt, as I said in last week's preview pod. Please I would like. Questions comments anything, it doesn't matter, if it's these races more broad topics, whatever it may be. Let me know because this coming week in the preview pot, at, like the be more of a little bit of a Q in a hearing, some of the things that you guys agreed disagree with just thoughts in general, and I'll go through and cherry pick certain things and touch on certain instances, this probably would be a better time to assess the whole Santa, Anita thing, and everything that went on Jerry Holland, or for, I'm gonna wait and do that. And the preview pot. Just because again this week leading up if you didn't listen to the preview, pod, I'm rolling solo all week. So there will be no Illman or beer, so he's going to be a number of things. I don't want to just keep rehashing the same things in the preview pie that I'm going to go over with out of the gate and all the six preview. So figured this is a good week for a little bit of viewer listener sort of interaction. And again, one of the questions I had been the YouTube player from the preview pod was related to Santa Anita. Now that, that meeting is closed. And the whole Holland or for bombshell, that whole thing I feel like Thursday's pod is probably a good time to touch on that not here in the recap show. So I'll go over that. And please anything else that you have doesn't matter what it is not saying, I'm going to answer all of them rose s all of them, but just fire away. You know, the drill either on Twitter to me at Bernier underscore or beneath the YouTube, Blair. Let's get right into it both I start off with the three year old race. The big marquee three-year-old race of the weekend. The great three Ohio, derby second look at the field, only six of unfortunately, with scratch of global campaign left Owen, Dale for Brad, Cox prohibitive favorite for flora, jerus- with the mount here. Alternately went off at odds of three to five thing. He had to work a little bit harder than maybe you would have expected three to five shot, too. But that doesn't mean that he didn't run. Well think that's more a credit to the runner up sick, look at the stretch run of the Ohio derby, it's math. Oh, what's her in front? Owen del gets a dream trip through on the inside long-range Taty outside bath wizard one for long ago. Oh, Owen Dell right alongside on the rail. Math wizard outside two now in the derby. Oh and L inside math wizard outside, oh, and takes the lead and a wins the oil derby game effort from math wizard. Long-range toddy was third and Bethlehem road. Finished fourth. Owen? Dale gets the job done again at odds of three to five is your overwhelming, favourite, only a half length, though. Math wizard runs a giant race at odds of five to one. And he looked like a legitimate racehorse doing this horse. They continues to improve. Maybe when you want to keep an eye on going forward. Long-range toddy a long way back finishing in third. Odds of two to one. Is your second choice? More than ten links behind the top two. Finishers sick. Look at a little bit more for of ten lifetime seven times in the money from ten lifetime starts over six hundred sixty thousand dollars in career earnings owned by Rupp racing trained by Brad, Cox bread by Stonestreet, thoroughbred holdings, LLC in Kentucky rid victory by flora, giroux. You'd see the pedigree at the bottom of the horse card. He is by intimacy, if and a Bernardini MIR named Aspen, light. The figures came back strong for this race. Ninety nine Beyer speed figure own Dale one fourteen pace adjusted and non pace adjusted time formula's ratings really big figures, no matter how you wanna chop it up a little bit of an interesting dynamic when you look. I can see how this race was run and how time for US assess some of the pay situations, the three quarters and the mile call were both color coded blue. But when you take a look at the chart you see that the top two finishers came from last and second to last throughout the first half of the race. And I think a lot of that had to do with the early fractions maybe took their toll. So maybe those, those middle to late fractions. They may have been on the slow side, it's time for US stating but I think the damage was done in the early portion of the race where you had horses like dare day in Bethlehem road and going for gold out there and long, range toddy was relatively close about four five pads out in the clear, the twenty two in three forty seven three say what you will about forty seven and three for a half not blistering. But after a twenty two and a piece opening quarter think you're gonna start to feel the effects of that. And keep in mind, a lot of those horses stretch out sprinters. So I wonder if things did sort of play into the advantage of horse like Owen Dale, as well as math wizard, but you can't take anything away from the way. They ran. I like both of them moved in this spot. Math wizard ninety buyer and one twenty two time a pace adjusted time form US rating one Twenty-three raw. These were two big efforts from these two horses now Owen Dale, perhaps, you wanna look at it and say, okay, we'll comes from a little bit more high profile connections, not that saffy Joseph junior is not a good trainer. We know him predominantly from south Florida Gulfstream Park. Those sort of situations now looks like they've got a nice three year old on their hands. If he continues to improve this way, maybe even comes a player in these these races over the summer, but I think that for me is really the takeaway from this race. I said leading into the Ohio derby said it talking about the Breeders Cup Classic top ten ranking that I do every week in that. There's a poll that number of people are pulled on these three roads, just feels like it's a very muddy picture. And sure this is a relatively formal result. And maybe this is going to be the beginning of something for oh and deal, maybe he's going to be the whole. That sort of, you know, I don't wanna say takes control. But, but at least, you know you can count on to show up with his effort because really with the exception that one race down at the fairgrounds. He hasn't done anything wrong. He went out there. Very impressive in Lexington ran a really nice race in the Preakness comes back your wins this race. You would imagine based on the timing. You're going to be looking at possibly Saratoga campaign. I suppose you could try the Haskell be very interested to see how much time they wanna give him. Because again, those dates those races are going to be pretty nice about four to five week stretch between the Ohio derby, those two races so fascinated see where Cox decided to go with this horse the distance, you know, whenever I see intimacy, if I don't know that I love the idea of going much much longer, but he ran find it a mile and three sixteenths. I don't see why he wouldn't run. Well, certainly he'll run find at a mile and we know that maybe he'll run find at a mile and a quarter as well. If you think Travers down the road or. Or keep in mind, too. We're at a point in time, where I think it's going to be very interesting as more and more time goes by, we've already seen the effective. But with the Pennsylvania derby being great one it's restricted to three year olds and it's nine furlongs. I do think you're going to get those connections as prestigious races. The Travers, you're going to get some of those really nice horses that if the connections are not sold on ten furlongs for them. They'll just sit it out. I think and wait one more month. You know, it's, it's an instance where is it ideal to have two months leading into your next race? No. But at the same time, I think if there's real distance concerns for some of these horses, and these connections, there, probably better off waiting, look to both of them are seven figure purses, and they're both grade ones, and maybe you'll see some of these connections, I'm not suggesting that's going to happen here with any of these. But I think you're going to get to a point where you know what the Travers is much as I love as much as we all love it. Maybe connections. Look at it and say maybe we'll be better off running in a race. Vania derby at nine for a long before we have to stretch them back out if we're thinking bigger down the road. The Breeders Cup Classic so good effort from own Dale followed math wizard, who was the first one to make that real move. But again, I feel like they both took advantage, perhaps of the circumstances owned L finishes in twelve o to math wizard and twelve thirteen long way back to long range Taty. He was wide. But I thought this is a little bit of a flat effort from him. And those last three horses, they were all sort of Overmach coming into Bethlehem road was mildly intriguing sort of the fresh face, but he was relatively close to that pace and he paid the price. So he formed full result for the most part at this'll down on Saturday afternoon. It'll be very interesting to see where we go forward with horse like Owen deal with a horse like math math wizard as well as long range Taty, because I don't wanna totally give up on this just yet, you know, on his best day he can fire a big shot. So we'll see where all of these horses end up going when forward, but we do know right now Owen Dale another graded stakes win. Maybe he is coming into his own for Brad Cox, and maybe he is going to be. Interesting, sort of I don't want to call him a fresh face because he's already running triple crown race. But maybe he'll be that, that newer face that may be a little bit more late developing horse that will take over as we go through the summer races. Big numbers Owen del ninety nine buyer one twenty four time. Former us rating winning this year's allow derby the loan grade, one of the weekend. The United Nations down. Monmouth park, mile and three eighths on grass Sehgal the field eight of them signed on post time. Favorite was channel cat for Todd Pletcher but down odds of nine to five. This is a nice horse. He is a lightly raced four year old, he did some good things as three year old but he always felt like one that wanted more ground. Just stay any distance that you threw it him. The, the question really always boil them to talent was quite as good as some of those other horses that could stay just as well as he could erase like this, though. He stacked quite favorably, and that's, including Chad Brown. Having a horse, including Bill Maher having horse including my maker having to horses in here. None of them got the money, the big money went to Jim. Toner. Here's the stretch run with hundred Riley process the track as they come into the stretch just behind them trying to get going catch. Diane hunter O'Reilly bigger picture, let loose on the outside, as Zulu alpha hits the front channel cat on the outside. Here's hunter O'Reilly down the center, the track, Zulu alpha Hutto, rally channel Cavs Zulu alpha, tro, rally, reaching on the outside. Here's the wire hunter rally and Paco got up to win the United Nations, Zillow under O'Reilly gets the job done it out to fourteen to one with pot. Go aboard finishing second Zulu alpha one of two in here for Mike maker rounding try to is the beaten favourite channel cat now. It's nine to five with sake. Look at hunter O Reilly five of twenty two lifetime seven other times six times in the money over six hundred twenty thousand dollars in career earnings owned by Sean Shay, and Michael j Ryan trained by Jimmy toner bread by Mike, g Rutherford in Kentucky individually Bipasha Lopez the pedigree about on the horse card. He's by his wonderful elevate, Bernardini mayor named oblige. Ninety nine Beyer speed figures free to the top two finishers here onto O'Reilly and Zulu alpha from time form US perspective, a one twenty three pace adjusted for hunter O'Reilly one twenty raw one Twenty-one pace adjusted Zulu alpha and channel cat. One twenty raw for Zulu alpha one nineteen raw channel cat looked all around nice effort from hunter O'Reilly seemed like look, this is the kind of horse that he did some good things at Saratoga last year felt like kind kinda came out of nowhere. He's always a horse that lives in that ten to fifteen to one range, and for one reason, or another. He's had a number of races that just been ten subpar recently didn't really have a ton of pace the run in this race half and fifty one three quarters and sixteen time former had the mile color-coded blue meaning of slow that was registered in forty one in two for a mile. So it's not like they were going guns blazing up front early. Although to be fair, the horse that were one two three early on. They finished six seventh and eighth and field of eight so. Do what you will. That's an instance where you as the handicapper need to decide just how much sort of the pace affected the Alta outcome. I don't think it was anything that was crazy. I think it was just a matter of perhaps the horses that were a little bit far the back having to be the classier in this field. Zulu alpha. I thought he ran nice. I thought channel cat, rare really well given how wide he was perhaps, that's the difference in here. Given the channel loses by about three quarters of a length. He's done the backside wide running the far turn he finishes in eleven sixty three Zulu alpha finishes in eleven sixty three this was a case where whoever finished fast last got the money on row. Riley comes home and eleven thirty four. He gets the job done here. You would assume he's going to go up Saratoga run a campaign similar to what we saw last year. He's going to be a giant price, again whatever race he shows up in end while this is a great one and you don't wanna take anything away from him or the connections. You can't help. But think when you see this field that, you know, focus group was here for Chad. A Roach was here for Chad Arocca. However, you'd like to pronounce that. These are the c and d strings Chad. You're gonna get Saratoga. You're gonna have the big boys that come back out. You're gonna have the bricks and mortar. You're gonna have the Robert BRUCE'S, you know, you're gonna have horses of that nature that show up. I just feel the water is going to get a hell of a lot deeper here for these horses coming out of the UN with the go to Saratoga, whether to go out to Arlington for the million anything like that. It just feels like Chad has plenty waiting for these horses. But at the end of the day nice effort from the top three horses, and look bigger picture. He tried focus group. He tried folks probably too far back. He's also that kind of horse where I do wonder is he better at even longer distances? I believe he won the Johns call last year at Saratoga mile and five eighths, and restricted stakes race. But he did well at Woodbine. Maybe you need even longer distances for focus group, which is more stare. I think that quicken and bigger picture. He's gonna show up. He'll be honest look fine effort for the year old. I don't think it was one of his better efforts, I don't think it was a. Effort either. I think you have no reason to believe that he won't continue on continue to run solid races. And he'll threaten in some of these every once in awhile, when things fall in his in his lap favor. But right now look at this race to say hunter O'Reilly tip of the cap, you got the job done. Water will get deeper. When you get Saratoga and say the same for the rest of this field channel. Maybe he's the one you wanna take out of here, given that wide trip that he encountered a grade. One winner is hunter O'Reilly ninety nine Beyer speed figure one Twenty-three pace adjusted. Time for US rating now. Let's throw it into the stakes montage for this past weekend. We'll take a look at some closing weekend stakes races from Santa Anita as well as the other graded stakes races for Monmouth, and one from north of the border up would buy. Let's get into that. The stakes montage will come back with some quick thoughts but they turn to the top of the stretch, and valedictorian takes over its valedictorian of the long, pole and flexibility, may remember charging down the outside with conquest hard, candy valedictorian and pocket of the sixty poll air front by four inflexibility, made to remember my. Sister, sledge, giving chase. But valedictorian wins the eaten town with panache one by three and a half in the end sick and very close either in flexibility, or made to remember diamond can have to reroute in the final furlong, their three legs clear, bow harbor run into love, you will taste defeat today, a funnel furlong lift ago. Managua halon, Jose Lescot. We're pulling away Managua, halo past the sixty poll diamond Qingdao harbour trying to close lay Leibman gala doing it nicely here in the Islam, Mananga, halo going on to win it by about three and a half four in the ad about harbor got up for second. Third went to diamond king. Zanotti. Two sis- Heeb is finishing with a real nice rush at them, both and cisa. He chanced his a slam digging in society Heeb is starting to inhale them on the outside avian Mesa the center Tisza slam still in front Saheeb on the wrong lead and Tisza slam gets on a length to sick and he's may says he weakening on that effort and Tisza slam gate to Wia wins. The Singspiel comfortably Amy's mazes sick simply breathless at the rail turning for home. And now all these care the coming through on the inside of it, but they MIA'S girl catchy get through there in the center. The court storm the hill comes simply breakfast with a big rally, simply breathless all these go on with it simply breathless takes solar late and centrally breathless wings The Wilshire blanket photo for second involve other red king also finishing with some interest acclimate hanging tough on the front of has three. Oscar Domingus chasing with determination, though, it's acclimate Oscar to acclimate caves, going Oscar Dominguez trying so hard acclimate. Oscar Dominquez acclimate, one wire in the San wine. Oscar Domingo's with second red king third, you're gotta water. Majestic eagle turning for home and Stati. Dresser running a big race. Law-abiding citizen trying to come back. For more sharp samurai is on the outside followed by majestic eagle sixteenth ago stars dresser, law-abiding, citizens sticks through on the inside with a good purse on the outside. Majestic eagle. Majestic eagle gets up or some quick thoughts on that sakes montage, and we'll get into the weekends best buyers of eaten Tom valedictorian to me. She she might be the most underrated Philly in training turf. Order, she just shows up and runs her heart out each and every time I love the versatility that she has a race like the eaten town. She goes up there presses the pace, if there is no. Oh pace ratio. Go to the front doesn't matter. She'll kick on with it. I just, I think she's very likable, and I do, I think she's one of the more underrated horses in training, not just Phillies mayors just in general. She shows up and run to race each and every time sometimes good enough. Sometimes it's not Philip is Lynn. No idea where the race from Managua halo game from this is a horse. That is a sort of habitual minor award winner. I believe going into the race was sixteen time second or third eleven runner, up finishes, only five wins from nearly forty starts. I thought it was difficult to make ground in that race. But you go through and you look at the chart for the day Monmouth park, it's not like it was, you know, a conveyor belt there were horses that we're making up ground just in that race itself. Didn't seem like there was a hell of a lot of running going on from the back when Halen set just off went on with it. And you know terrible leads drifting about but I mean he he still buried field. And from a number standpoint, gimmick an incredibly fast race. I don't know what you wanna do with that. I'm going to continue on with the stance of when Managua halo wins races. I will lose if I'm playing that one. The Bill TIs slam. Walk the dog in the front. And you take a look at those fractions of the opening quarter was just under twenty six seconds half mile in like fifty three something crazy like that. No pay signed on at all find vine effort. He likes would by don't want to take anything away from there. He actually won the race, sir. Saheeb is the horse that I want coming out of that race because he's the kind of horse that when you look at the dynamics away the race was run. There was no speed signed on. He is basically last coming around the far turn, and he puts in a giant giant bid flattens out understandably down the lane. Those horses in front of him. They still have something left in the tank, even how slow they went a to me in a race with more pay signed on next time sir Saheeb is one of those that may be. I'm going to be a little bit interested in. I've already put him in my DR force watch, I would suggest you do the same poor consider doing same anyway. And then we'll wrap up with three races out. It's anthony. The Wilshire simply breathless save ground tipped out. Flew home nicely. I was disappointed in the effort from all these candy, especially when you consider the way that, that trip worked out rail opens of wide to me, the old ALI'S candy kicks on through there and gets the job done. I thought it was a disappointing effort. She she hasn't been the same after this long laugh. Maybe third start off the bench will be the charm, meeting del mar will be the charm right now, though. I'm disappointed in the form. She has shown also disappointed in the form. We've seen from sharp samurai in his two starts here. He ran in the American three-horse blanket finish at the end. Majestic eagle comes fastest of all in the far outside. I don't think sharp Samrai's, the same horse as he was. Because to me, the old sharp Samarai wins that race relatively comfortably given the trip that he had. X Y Z. And he just I don't think he has that same that same kick that same finish that he has in years prior, you know looks it happens. Father time catches up to everyone some a little bit sooner than others. Sharp samurai to me. Maybe again, maybe he's another one that at some point, we'll show. Oh, that can give back to his best. But right now, I don't know that I'll be betting on it and San Juan Capistrano. I spoke about it when we did the stakes preview. It's difficult for me like guesswork in a mile and three quarters race. It's not something that we run over here that's long for European races in some instances. So going into it, you know, we'll take a shot. See what happens coming out of it. I, I rarely impressed with anything because against such an anomaly. I thought acclimate ran really really well the fractions. I don't know if they were entirely accurate another starting going down the hill. But I mean forty six and change for a half mile going mile three quarters. It seems a little far fetched. But I love the way that this horse move when, when there was a little bit of heat going into that far turn he he still had something left in the tank kicked away opened up a little bit. And that was the difference because he prevailed by three quarters of a length I thought he legitimate, fractions, whether you believe the clock at face value or not. And he still had something left that was an. Impressive effort to me, it makes me wonder you know what a mile three quarters fine. I think he could still be effective at a mile and a half. Now the water will get deeper because you'll get better quality at a mile half race. I'm not totally. I wouldn't sell this horse short that to me was very impressive effort and one that potentially could be sign of things to come. Maybe acclimates when you wanna keep an eye on in those sort of longer races out in southern California, whether it's at Delmore when they go back to Santa Anita in the fall. That's my take away from San Juan Capistrano, as well as the rest of these races here and stakes montage, go into the weekends best as far as buyers concerned on the recap addition, we'll take them right? In order the three year old males Owen Dale ninety nine in the Ohio Irby three ruled Phillies message, a ninety four and a maiden special weight at Santa, Anita three year old males on grass Halliday eighty seven and a maiden special way to Belmont, Park, three year old Phillies onto blow out a ninety two winning the wild applause Belmont Park older males Managua, halo that one or two in the Islam at Monmouth. Again, I. I don't mean this in a sort of a demeaning way to the connections. Look great job. You've got the horse. I just, he's that kind of horse from gambling standpoint. I I wanna be bang against him every time because don't trust him. He earns a one oh to winning the Islam down Amman with park older, fillies and mares on Springsteen, divine, clean boxwood. They all learn eighty seven buyers one in a stakes race at Canterbury. The other two in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs older, males on grass. Eddie Haskell and siren lure that wasn't part of the stakes montage. But boy, you won't talk about a horses. Just crack at five eighths. One hundred Beyer speed figure for him older. Fillies mares grass simply breathless ninety five winning The Wilshire out at Santa Anita. There you have it the weekends best source. Beyer speed figure performances are concerned on the recap. Addition, however, you've been listening, thank you for doing so YouTube soundcloud, items video dot the dot com. Swell Spotify, please rate reviewing subscribed fear over on you to make sure the belly cons lit up giving DR of TV has to offer questions. Calms concerns, the beneath video player on you or directly to me on Twitter at Bernier underscore, Matt. And again, I will stress that please, send anything everything my way, I will pull everything together and put something out there for the preview pot on Thursday. You'll see a lot of this week, if you are a fan of our six previews or out of the gate because will be doing all the six previews and I will be the only one, the only one we'll have our usual contributors on out of the gate, but we won't have the boys in studio. So going gonna get a lot of me over the next week leading into the following week. So. And then July fourth weeks going to be a little bit interesting. Put Bill back layers, a little bit the racing forms offices are moving down in their building New York City. So there's a lot of movement going on. I look, maybe I'll be wrong, but I believe the plan right now is there will be no out of the gate, around fourth of July and most of you will be at the beach, or whatever it may be. We'll have steaks previews for you, though, leading in stars, and stripes at Belmont. Park and things of that nature. So you don't wanna keep an eye on everything. DR TV has offer this week as always, but especially leading expert because schedules, going to be a little bit at a whack as always. Thank you for listening, best of luck. I'll be back with the preview pod on Thursday, one, all your thoughts questions, comments whatever else it may be. Let me know until then, however you play whatever you play wherever you play. It's been the recap addition of the map, Ernie your show.