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The Nationals' Championship Celebrations and Offseason Predictions | The Ringer MLB Show


I released the basketball in two thousand nine swore was done. What else was there to say? The book was seven hundred four pages long. I figured out the secret secretive basketball with help from Isaiah. Thomas used it to rank the top ninety six players of all time. I blew up the basketball hall of fame and turned it into a five level gypsum pyramid. They figured out that thirty three greatest whatever sobbed every MVP debate. I made the case for Russ overwhelmed. I explained why M. J. was the greatest ever I wrote hundreds of pop culture references at least two hundred fifty inappropriate jokes and God knows how many footnotes drove to San Diego for the epilogue to spend time with Bill Walton. The book reached Number One on the New York Times bestseller list. That was all I ever wanted. I was done. I swear to myself I would never do a sequel. Well I kinda lied so much has changed in the NBA. These past ten years can help going back who have seen the three point. Bloom coming Curry's warriors. There's going seventy three and nine the heart trade player empowerment near the process advanced metrics decision Cleveland winning title. I repeat Cleveland winning a title title. Well why write a sequel. Would I could turn that book into a living breathing. podcast something that juggled interviews Pyramid podcasts and Rewatch game podcast famous games. What's my top hundred? Now what's my pyramid. What's the new biggest? What if of all time could be eighty-six Celtics handled the seventeen warriors carriers and all those threes would learn from spending so much time over the last years with people like Bill Russell Magic Johnson? Kevin Durant Jalen Rose Isaiah Thomas and so many others you think of it as my basketball book coming to life in audio form. Reinvented reincarnated retooled. Recreated for two thousand is a nineteen and beyond its the Book Basketball two point. Oh it's launching on November six presented by state farm. See there hello and welcome to the ringer. MLB Show my name. Is Mike Obama's staff writer at the Ringer. I am join as always by my the Juan Soto to my anthony. Rangoon's cramps Zack. Hello I'm excited to finally have some some time to rest away from the playoffs. Yeah I I have not had his restful a weekend as I would like because my cat kept waking me up all his trying to sleep in because he wants food every four hours but anyway You might notice the absence of Ben Lindberg Band. In accordance with baseball tradition edition has opted out of this podcast so he will not be You will not be joining us today. But that's fine because that gives Zaka me more room to talk about The Apple TV plus series for all mankind and Breakdown some immediate post World Series News. Because there have there have been Zach news a plural. Now the the the thing you ever see the orchestra for the king and I when I was in In High School. And there's a line where the king says yes. There are news news so anyway. Let's we're just GONNA go straight down a listed I've created in shared with you. We're GONNA do some quick quick news reactions. Then we'RE GONNA breakdown free agency. So the first thing up is set of managerial hires. And let's just lightning round these What are your thoughts on Mike Metheny to Kansas Kansas City? I admit I sorry to royals fans but I laughed when I saw this news because it seemed so fitting that team with maybe a history history of being somewhat backwards in terms of analytics adoption Would hire a manager with the same reputation but I think actually more seriously a manager. A who oversaw a clubhouse in Saint Louis which got a lot of feedback about allowing things like bullying rookies. That have fortunately finally mostly been phased out of baseball these days and It's not a great thing in Kansas City. Team that is bringing in a lot of young players have a manager who has in the past allowed such an environment to flourish yet. That's my big thing that I got on really give a damn about his bullpen management. Because it doesn't matter a ton and it won't so royal seem for the next few years the clubhouse stuff from the envy's rain in Saint Louis like he's eat like if he were if I were hiring a manager he you would need to prove to me that he's learnt what he's learned from that because that would be borderline disqualify idiot and even then like there are dozens of other qualified candidates. Who I I? Don't have something like that on their track record but at the same time this team's GonNa suffer in the next few years. He probably was hired to be fired when the royals are starting to get good and they disappoint for the first time so like this. I hate to just wave off a franchise that was in the world series of won the world series within the past five years. But at this just feels like a everybody joked about it happening and then it happened and we're all GONNA forget about it until until firemen for years so that's with that Speaking of laughingstock franchises and Participants in the two thousand fifteen world series the mets fired Mickey callaway and of hard Carlos. Beltran this one. I actually do quite interesting interesting. This is the opposite reaction to the metheny one for me. I love this higher because Beltran has been a player of interest or a retired player of interest for other front offices before I think he interviewed for the Yankees job. Ultimately went to Aaron Boone and the obvious connection is Beltran's famous strike strikeout to end the two thousand six and I'll see but he was an awesome player for the mets for many years and he seems like he has all of the qualities from even when he was veteran player. That point as he's going to be a future manager and maybe it came a little early than expected by teams are no longer afraid to hire recent players and Beltran seems as good a fit as any player of that caliber can be. Yeah I would want somebody I said there are two misgivings died that I would have about Beltran. One is the the lack of high level bigly coaching or Or minor league managerial experience that he is essentially in that Aaron Bhutan. And you know I arbutus. It's been a pretty good manager. So that's not that it's not automatically disqualifying. The other thing is this goes back to like when Ted Williams was managing that like great player sometimes get frustrated as coaching. This is throughout sports have frustrated coaching players. Who aren't as good as as they were? But you know everything I know about Carlos Beltran it is a human being is Yet that he is smart and easy. Oh easy to talk to you and has just that universal respect in the other thing we make a big deal about whenever a white guy speaks Spanish the importance of being bilingual and managing in managing a bigly clubhouse you know Beltran obviously had sat as well and for some reason Puerto Rican Dominican latin-american us. American managers don't You know they don't get Credit for for be for being able to communicate with everybody in the clubhouse which I think is is a near Automatic qualification for for modern manager. So like my big thing is like what is he. Want with this mets job. Because that's a it's a tricky job. Mickey callaway prove maybe he made it a little more difficult than it had to be but I see he might not be successful but I don't think it's going to be his fault. There's just so much more chaos with that job than than with most so I I wish him well. I am certainly a big fan of Carlos Beltran. I hope he does well in this job. Or after this. Go South in his next one Joe Girardi the Phillies I as affiliates. Fan I kinda wanted dusty Baker but I you know just watching. Gabe Kaplan the past. Couple of years I was. I wanted someone a little more boring with just like a little more base level competence and I think Girardi has the capacity to you. He has the GRAVITAS. The experience While also being open to To what Beltran I think it was about the term in his introductory press conference was calling information impure and communicating that while the player. So I think that the phillies might have gone. I be automatic over correction to the experienced hand. But it's experience hands go. I think they got a good one. I was a yankees fan for large portions sounds of journeys tender and I think he's a good manager. He's not the best in the League but he is. Certainly I think above replacement level if we have a way to come up with warm wins above replacement manager. He has averaged ninety wins ear and his Major League career. He won the manager of the year award in his lone year in Florida before being fired what he was the the only person ever to win manager of the Earth with a losing record. And it's just a funny footnote. But you could. I'd say well it's easy to win ninety games the INCAS payroll but the phillies probably should have the Yankees payroll and after this off season if they make another big signing or two very well May and I I think Yankees fans by the end especially gave Giardi a lot of grief for being fairly inflexible with his decision making. He always went by what his binder said he should do. But his binder generally incorporated information in a in a smart way and I think the phillies could use an even hand as you were saying long after Kappler and I also think like. I don't think he was doing a terrible job at the end of his Yankees tenure But I'm also a big believer. We're in the fact that sometimes you just need to change that. That like you know he was there for close to ten years and Tani Nears was it full ten years Zo. Any professional relationship that lasts that long has sometimes. Just Gimme to shake up the message. And that's not an indictment of the players or the Organization of the or the manager And so I I think this is a good situation for him. He is a a steady hand For for a team that I think really needs one Speaking of experienced hands a Joe Oh baton this was I think as obvious telegraphed is the Mike Athenee move. He's go into a Los Angeles. I guess it's just the wos Angeles angels I keep wanting in To call the Los Angeles of Anaheim even though they haven't actually been that I wrote a pretty extensive column about this when the hiring happened. But I'm curious if you have anything to add to that I agree. People should read her column because the angels are an organization at a crossroads both on and off the Field Bay have Mike Trout but haven't made the playoffs playoffs and a half decade and need a manager who can help them get there but in addition to that they are under an investigation. After the tragic death Taylor skaggs which seems to have had organizational involvement possibly some sort of drug cover up and Madden hasn't dealt with this kind of issue before but when he spoke at basically Eddie press conference after Addison Russell's suspension for for violating the League's domestic violence policy. It left a lot to be desired. And I think as you pointed out in your piece. That's a big concern given that here's another for example of something that won't WanNa talk about. But you kind of have to if this is if if you are the public facing angels employees now yeah and it's not to say that he can't learn from that experience or that the that changing or changing the organization won't really force him to reevaluate. Wait the way he dealt with that and it's also somewhat different conversation so I think from an onfield perspective. Obviously the long standing angel ties is a you know. He was a coach player for some thirty years in in that organization having him come back was It's an obvious feel-good story. He's another guy who I think the message in the fact that the message got stale at the end of his cubs. Tenure doesn't mean the message is bad and has a change of scenery for will work well for him But Yeah it's the the field stuff which is frankly more important than the baseball right now. for that for that angels team so you know. I hope he handles it well. UH-HUH I he's given us reason to doubt so you know I. I hope every year I hope that that higher turns out. But you know I think it's it is at the same time a slam dunk and also something to worry about. So we'll see how that goes JAS Tingler Another first time manager from the Texas Rangers Organization Organization will take over for Eddie. Green in San Diego You know I didn't really get a good feel for Andy. Green is a manager but this is a a padres team did last year. I think it was a free hit after they signed Machado in free agency and they had some pitcher injuries But Fernando. TT's coming up as a rookie Francisco here coming up his rookie. Maybe they they're still a year away or they were still a year away. Now I think twenty twenty. They're going to be expected to contend. Tingler seems fairly well regarded so we'll see how that goes yet. The interesting thing about him. I think that he has both a coaching coaching and front office background but he also has experience working in player development and one of the issues seemed with green. was that a lot of the padres. Prospects did not got advance and improve like you might have expected them to players like Manny Margot who have kind of stalled at the major league level and given San Diego's future right now is in either triple A. are making their first Introduction to the bigs it makes sense that they would want a manager with that kind of experience but more broadly speaking. I don't know much about Jason Tingler in particular but it's interesting that this off season it isn't like a couple recent off seasons where like every team that wanted a manager. Senator would hire a very specific kind of candidate. It seems like this winter we have former players hired US first time managers. We have former successful managers Girardi and matted and and mckinney and then we have this new guy who hasn't managed to bigly club before wasn't a notable player but still has the kind of blend of front office and in Dugout experience. That would seem to be attractive in this age of trying to get analytics passed down from the computers to the clubhouse. Yeah I mean what else say about. That is like the combination of of coaching in front office. Experience like that describes a AJ hinch who confirm my money. Is the best manager working baseball right now. I also describes Gabe Kaplan who You know I it got by position him quite clear over the the past couple of years. So it's not it's not just the background it's the personality in how you implement it and I think we'll we'll get a pretty clear picture of that with Jay. Stigler is deserves. Serves a chance to to show. What kind of manager is because you never really know It brings up the the last one. There are still a few vacancies but the last one that's been filled as of now. Is David Ross to the cubs. This also felt telegraphed. I don't know like it. It says a lot about how meaningful 2016 rightly was to the cubs that David Ross who played two seasons as a cub and thirteen. Eighteen seasons for six other teams is now remembered as like this cubs hero. A when he was basically John Lester designate a catcher actor and yes he hit a home run in world series game seven and he was by all accounts a sort of spiritual leader of that team. But it's just very amusing that that is now his legacy when he spent the first thirteen years of his career bouncing around other clubhouses. Yeah I I don't know I think by dislike like for this hirers prejudice at least in part by my dislike for him as an announcer. You know I know. And that's like I will say like Dow is dumber one like I. Don't you know I he's not going to be on ESPN anymore. I think certainly the viewing public a winner in this higher He could do a good job Robert again. It's just another recent ex player in other feel-good higher with no experience. And like you know what is Hensley Mueller needs to do to get a bigly managerial. The job is like that. To my knowledge. He wasn't ever seriously considered for this. But like Dat would be he would be interview number one for me if I were hiring manager right now. And he's still like you lost out Aaron Boone and like I say Aaron Boone very similar background to Dave Ross. and He's been great. I think it's as Yankees Manager Blade. this is not the higher I would. Yeah Boone. Is I think the best case scenario of how this turns out Boone and other player who is I very fondly remembered by a fan base for something. He did in his playing days and was hired without the experience hired from broadcast booth but the cubs are in a really tough spot because as we have discussed they have gone from a potential dynasty to a team that missed the playoffs and they've had worse results in each of the last three seasons since winning and they have players like Byas and Rizzo and Bryant who are entering their final seasons before free agency. And it's just a tough spot for. You're someone who doesn't have any experience in this regard. I I think busty Baker wouldn't have been a choice in Chicago given history there but a manager like him. He's AH somebody like him. As is the guy you need. This is a really tough job. Even Girardi who was a cub could have been a pretty good choice here and Ross could end up doing a good job. There's a heavy amount of downside given the roster situation. They're in and it's hard to know what Ross brings the clubhouse. There was a report that he he got the job. Because of a mock spring training speech he gave in his audition which maybe matters. There are a lot of behind the scenes. Things that managers do that are probably more important than whether they choose to hit and run in the seventh inning by. I don't know that seems like a pretty weird criteria to use when making such an important decision Iranian Minoa to make of that I don't even know like so guess. Could you give an inspirational spring tanning speech off the top of your head. I ah I could recite the her book speech for Miracle. That's what I want to. I don't know how Theo Epstein Jed Hoyer react act to be saying I sick and tired of hearing what a great team the Soviets have bite nine times out of ten. We'd beat the Royal Split Spring Training Squad but not this game. I'm not today. You're born to be hockey players and Anthony. Rizzo goes what there are always more ways to win on Vandal sportsbook. 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Free One week shipping. So you can have your New Sofa setup by next week's game now. I just spent the money to watching baseball on my borough love seat. It's it's been through extra inning. Limitation Games occasional scratching by the CABBIE occasional food spill. Seen me through safe and sound so that's good to you. You could settle into a comfy new burs of as well. It's Seventy Five Dollars New Sofa and free shipping at bird dot com slash. Mlb let's be you are out of dot com slash. MLB for seventy five dollars off in New South and now it's time to go to the champions who did beat the Soviets in the In the medal round of the of the Olympics and are now parading through Washington The Washington nationals. They seem to be doing this right I think the Eh when the capitals won the Stanley Cup couple years ago in a very similar situation a team that you know Washington like exists in this entire Washington bubble but also so had this core that had fallen short and never really come close to winning a title finally get over the Hump and you could just see like and Max Scherzer in particular talked about this. Like how much he found himself. Identifying without askin in terms of just You know being a guy at the very tail and a hall of Famer at the tail end of his is prime finally getting that title and how much it means in and it's been fun to watch The nationals of course went to a caps game over the weekend and took off their shirts and to to the great amusement of the crowd. They seem to be having a good time trae turner a teaching on so to play play hockey Explaining what hockey puck is to Geraldo par in a short video. So just go find all that stuff on the Internet. It's it'll bring a smile to your face. Yeah I actually now that the blast rover was able to log off this weekend. I went for some long runs. I read a book and I missed all of this so I am excited to catch up up after this podcast ends. Were there any particular highlights. I should look at I. I I mean the the shirtless press area shirtless luxury box. Thing is Is certainly a highlight for me. I think that's the the big thing like they're poor and beard out to people sitting below them signing the empty empty cans and chucking them into the crowd. I think this this soon after winning title like shirtless in public is about where you want your your championship. Athletes be make sense. Jr Smith became known for it. After the Cavaliers Avelino won the title. I think yeah that the ring even made a game for it. Yeah anyone so with that said we also probably we need to talk about the fact that the cut by virtue of playing Washington and being a a team that tends to be wider and more conservative. They went to the White House house where courtesy put on Maga- hat and was greeted with an awkward hug from behind. By by the President Sean doolittle and nobody's particular surprise. Decided to to skip the visit. This is not new Carlos I think Beltran did as well a couple other. astras skip visit when they went to the White House After the twenty seventeen title. I don't know how much there is to say about that. Because it feels like eh skipping. The White House visit is taken Like the discourse around that and I think rightly so as it's taken a turn. I can't even remember if we talked about that. On this pod After after the last two world series. But yeah it's as as much fun as it is to watch the you know. Get their money's worth out of their celebration it. This was just right around the corner. Yeah and a lot quicker than I think. The Red Sox didn't visit until they made a trip Mid Season season last year. And that's what happens but white houses just down the road so you might as well do it. Yeah of all of these skips and visits. The Red Sox won I think resonated the most in the narrative because was at that all of the white players on the roster ended up going while all players who are not wait did not attend and there. Weren't I think such clear dividing faultlines in terms of who visited. And who did not this time around. So it gave way too. I think less less broader residence amid everything else. That's going on but as you said it's not a surprise that we are going to continue to have this conversation. Every single team wins the championship. Yeah I think is for as little as few as have been constructive in American politics over the past five years or so I think like reevaluating. The white it has trip is a political As a political event like even partisan event I think we'll be better off if we view it like that in the long term. And you know it's it's not. I don't know that there is such a thing as like in a political office of the president anymore and I think that's we might be bad. Yeah it might be uncomfortable but I think we'll. We'll have a clearer clear way to grapple with reality. I guess If we if we start doing it that way you knows maybe we'll we'll start talking about how how weird it is that like. We're the only country that plays the national anthem and God blessed role or whatever the equivalent of God bless America's every sporting event how overtly political will Organized sports have been so not that we need to do that enough on the show. We don't need to Belabor the point but the nationals are. They went to the White House like today. So so as we're recording so we have to talk about that Okay if as much as I want to talk about the Washington national shirtless escapades. We must move on to roll Chapman who their bid. If you opt outs extensions rollers. Chapman is one of them. He has opted out of his contract. And then re signed adding one year eighteen million dollars to his contract are the seems fair enough. It seems reasonable for. You're both player and team. I think Chapman probably was worried. by Craig Kimbrel experience in the free agent market last year of Chapman had opted out the Yankees would have certainly offered him a qualifying offer and then he would've been subject to draft compensation loss for whichever new team signed him and and from the Yankees perspective. We know how much they love their bullpens and having already engaged with the engaged with both trading for Chapman I and then resigning him following his suspension They have kind of already committed themselves to this player and adding him for an extra year seems to fit with what they're doing in a lot of different respects the concerning point for Chapman. I think is just what will look like in a couple of years. His velocity since two thousand sixteen gene has dropped by a MPH every year from hundred one to one hundred ninety nine to ninety eight on his average fastball. And once you get down to the high nineties is that's there's I think there's a big difference in hit ability between ninety seven ninety eight one hundred one so we've started seeing him uses slider a lot more. Of course the most recent pitchy through was a slider that Jose today hammered for a pennant. Winning home run but Chapman by and large was still a very good closer. This year will probably be so next year again less certain in two thousand twenty one. Yeah I think the the concern about his decline is a a big reason why it made sense for him to to do. Essentially naturally Clayton Kershaw. Did last year. you know and this is even if the player doesn't opt out. It's yeah this is why you had the opt-out as you could use us a little bit of use it to create leverage So that's I don't I don't want to say like good for all this Chapman given everything we we know about his behavior off the field. But you know this is how how the buy out. Sorry how the opt-out is is supposed to work so it seems like it will work after having able to work after the Yankees everybody walks away happy to the Atlanta braves have done something much lower stakes but kind of interesting. They declined to million dollar sorry. They declined options on tower flowers and Nick Marquess for six million dollars in twenty twenty. Paid the two million dollar buyout right and then resigned both of them to four million dollar one year contract so the money is exactly the same. What that does that shifts the the payroll burden? Ah a third of it for those two players back to twenty one thousand nine hundred twenty nine hundred bucks instead of twenty twenty bucks. I'm not sure why they bothered. Because this is not the team that I was led to believe was going to be anywhere near the competitive balance tax. But maybe if this is a sign that that they're gonNA they're going to spend big than good for the braves but it's you know it no harm done if the players get the same money they were gonNA make anyway But yeah yet. That's one way to look at it. The other is that it's just another really annoying example. Not that we we need more. But it's another example of how financials in baseball have conspired to create all these weird contract incentives. I'm reminded ended of the trade that the dodgers made with Atlanta where they basically took on more money but because that money was distributed differently was advantageous for for their luxury tax situation. And like you said I'm not quite sure why the braves would be concerned about their luxury tax number but it's just another example of how writing about baseball has forced justice to become a moonlighting economists to try and figure out what's going on and it's disheartening as we enter a winter which we'll talk about in a second where I'm sure free agency we'll see we'll linger and linger and linger and we're already starting off on teams manipulating dollar figures to improve their standing. Yeah I mean. I hope this means you're going to spend more but given the braves Tracker also say that they signed Donaldson they signed a Dallas Kaikal. So I wrote at the beginning of last off season. They had this sort of upper. Middle Class of free. Agents is where the bargains are. If you're willing to to spend something something approaching sticker price for good players than you're GonNa get good players and so maybe this sets up the braves trying to do something like that again. 'cause they're losing Campbell they're losing Donaldson In a couple of other players but they care they will instead of Kimbrel. I I did that all last season last off season and I'm starting to to do the same thing now assurance her in Stratford and I don't know why like maybe I two running low on on memory capacity Anyway we'll we'll see what they do at. This is not in and of itself. Good or bad. I think it's interesting you know nicer. They're bringing back to you. Know to save sets a hands. But we'll see what they do with this payroll flexibility and the last piece of news Stephen Strasburg after After much speculation has finally opted out of his contract act That's going to set up our free agency. discussion So I guess we'll hold off on what we think is going to happen. We'll come back and talk about free agency. What's expect players to look for teams that we expect to be competitive right after these messages? You're giving everyone on your list. Bombed the socks this holiday you deserve spot in the holiday gifting hall of fame now. I love cold weather but I hate having cold feet. But it's not enough for Saxby warm. They've got to be supportive breathable and nats. What Bombay socks are socks are soft like made with softest cotton in the world? Software built with extra cushioning walking dog chilling home or playing the drums. You'll be comfortable bobby. Baba's socks provide support in places. You didn't know you needed like your arches. Each sox's built with a special arch support system. Feels like a nice hug for your foot and there's smooth across the top stop. No more annoying. toasty bombs all types of socks dress socks for work performed sexual working on limited edition. Holiday socks even have a wide Merino wool socks. 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HAMELS engine review and indeed many other players who do not throw their left hand. You know this. This is an interesting free agent class. I think I was so wrapped up in last year's class with Harper and Machado that I sort of didn't think that this class is going to be that interesting. There are a lot of interesting names and not only. Are there a lot of interesting names. I think this class could have been even better. Had so many really okay. Great players not signed extensions. This was when we had Paul Goldschmidt as a free agent and Nolan Aeronautical and Chris Sale and Sandra Bogart's Justin verlander all of them assigned extensions. So naturally the top crust is only three players deep as opposed to like a dozen but we still have as you said a really solid class and I think and some of the second tier position players are quite valuable to Josh Donaldson. We mentioned yes. Money Grindal who for my money is the best catcher in baseball A JD Martinez could opt out of his red SOx contract so there will be many good players. Changing teams may be changing divisional outlooks over the winter the question given the last two off seizes. How long will that take right now? It's more like Didi Gregorius. Yossi like all those guys Could end up being on the move. This this off season so like Nachos good players but but fairly big names to and yeah like this is what during the world series either either during the world series of during the Garrett Cole was just mowing down opponents I think it was. Ken Rosenthal came on Came on the Fox broadcast to say he expects like a record setting contractor for coal this off season and like I hope he's right because he deserves it. I don't know if there's been a the last free agent pitcher who just in terms of of track record an upside and age the last guy this good this valuable the hit the market arquette. And it's in a point where so many big market teams like. What could Gary Cole- do for the padres? What could you do for the phillies? In what can he do for the Yankees even And the like the the public scuttlebutt is he's GonNa want to go back to southern California but even like you know what can you do for the angels for the padres you know. That's so I don't know I. I hope he's right. I've just been disheartened by the the way The way free agent spending has gone the past three or four years. In Kohl's case there are four pitchers in history who have signed numbers this great. They're four pitchers who have signed for at least two hundred million dollars at David Price Clayton kershaw extension Max Sherzer with the nationals and Zach Cranky with Arizona's doubt. That contract is in Houston and I think I would be pretty soon apprised if cold not become the fifth. I wouldn't even be surprised if he Doesn't break Those records David price at two hundred seventeen million dollars is the top mark mark. I would guess cold. Probably exceed that but probably not by much would be where I think he ends up because remember last winter like Harper and Machado. It took forever forever but they did end up signing for three hundred plus million dollars they eventually got the numbers and I think even as great as Harper Machado where the way that team him seems to be valuing elite pitching these days makes me think that Kohl would be able to get the number. He's looking for but that seems to run counter to every other trend we've seen in the market so I'm not really sure another interesting wrinkle. Is that the top three players and indeed like eight of the top ten free agents depending on how you rank them are are all represented by Scott Boris. So it's kind of interesting to see how he himself will be setting the market and how he's angling for both Strasbourg and coal and maybe using leverage for both of them up there offers as kind of an interesting secondary angle here and I'm curious to see how it all plays out once again. I'm I'm sort of uncertain as to to what's going to happen. I I mean the other thing is how many of these guys you look at the market. The Grant Donaldson Kyko hamels her. Like or coming off of of playoff teams and so if those guys get get moved like the teams that are losing them. We're going to have to to replace them. And and so that creates you know shuffling effect and a lot of those teams. Don't have internal options Not that anybody really has a catching prospect. I guess shorter like the giants and the Orioles. Not that anybody has a catching prospect. Ready to to come in and play Lagasse my the grand all So yeah it's I who ed we're seeing a morale is we're seeing a lot of those guys who just just came off the one year proved deal Who really should have gotten their four? You know four years one hundred million dollars or five hundred million dollars Coming back to to try again after another year production another year of aging It but to bring it back to Machado and Harper. Yeah they got the three hundred million in dollar contracts but like Harper's making like twenty three million dollars a year I think the the the sheer size of the totality of that Adeel. I is undermined by the length of it and I think that was that was on purpose by Scott Bores to say that he negotiated the base. Free agent deal. You'll ever for for Bryce Harper and it's also being used against them like we see it whenever whenever anybody talks about the Phillies are slack channel like like you know. Would you want thirteen years. Three hundred million. You know like a roll. This Chapman's going to end up making eighty five percent of what Bryce Harper's making so it's not that much money and I think ultimately I found both of those contracts underwhelming and so I'm you know it's interesting not just the the boers involvement by Coleraine don't in particular seem they're they're interesting personalities like I don't know that they're that they would necessarily be adverse to to hold the out to get the money in the situation that they want so it'll be interesting. I've said interesting fifty six times but I do have a hard time predicting how this is going to shake out. Well that's kind of what we talked about when Mike. Trout signed his record-setting ascension. Last spring is trout because has it was so many years he got the record. Total contract but in terms of average annual value. It really wasn't much of an upgrade. What the previous record had been? He's GonNa make thirty five five to thirty six million dollars a year for the next decade plus but then every for an office can look at that and say well if Mike Trout is by far the best player in baseball is only worth thirty. I five million dollars then nobody else is going to be able to go above that and I think that imposes a sort of comparative ceiling. On what any other player can ask for and that it at that also mirrors like broader macroeconomic trends where you see wage for you know. Wages are increasing across American society like very slowly while overall productivity exploding. And so that. It's yeah that's a record contract. Yeah Harper's record contract. Yeah I I like every contract was quote unquote record. Like verleger was was verleger. A record for for average annual average annual. Wow I just philly accented the shit out of that word average annual value Like even like Blake Snell was like a record for a left handed pitcher of his service timer at. And you know it's a five year fifty million dollar deal for the reigning cy young wire. And that's all these things are just goosing the ceiling ceiling by a fraction of a percent while revenues continue to explode. And now we'll see what what What kind of reckoning comes down the pike when the C. B. as up? You know it's it these are these are strange unpredictable times. Well as I think it was Craig Edwards at Fan Graphs last year wrote that if Alex Rodriguez had signed his Record setting contract with the Rangers in two thousand nine hundred dollars it would be something like a six hundred million dollar contract with sixty million dollars a year and that's like twice as much as what any of these guys are making so. I think you're definitely right. That as is the broader game is increasing. Its take At the same time as players are not so. Let's look at this I've got the graphs top fifty free agents Page open in front of me. Is there at like. Maybe baseball doesn't deserve us just treating this like Like an actual on field team building for the purpose of winning experiment. But is there a name on here that you're interested to see what happens. Schumer a fit that between free agent and and club that you're particularly looking forward to so it's less one particular player than a particular class of player and and now that Chapman has opted out but resigned with the Yankees. There isn't a defined closer on the market like there has been in recent years The top relievers are will Smith and will Harris from the Astros and Adele contest. Who will miss most of next year because he's hurt drew? POMERANZ was a very good reliever from a walkie after the trade deadline. But none of these guys are like top of the leaderboard closers necessarily and I'm curious to see what kind of contracts that are able to command because this I'm not convinced that this most recent postseason proves that like the starting pitcher is back. I think it was just a confluence of two really good. Rotations is that could have easily lost an early rounds and then with the nationals. Had lost to the brewers we would've been talking about how the bullpen is going to continue to take over the sport. But I'm interested. I said after the place we saw given the relief versus starting pitching markets. We've seen in recent years. What the relief pitching market and looking like for these? I think mostly they're considered second tier relievers but players like will Smith and we'll Harris have really good numbers and they probably deserve more than they'll get. Yeah I think both of those guys. Both the wills are GonNA end up being bargains for whoever sides them particularly if those are teams if if they end up with teams that have designs making playoffs. Because they're gonna you know it's feels weird say this about the guy who gave up the home loss world series. But we've talked enough on this podcast over the past month about how nails will hairs in particular has been And if he doesn't resign with the asteroids I think you'd be a difference maker Really closer probably we almost anywhere else. the the one player. I'm most interested in just from a standpoint of idle. Curiosity is Madison Bumgarner. Because I have such a hard time imagining him in a uniform other than the giants the giants if they're going to rebuild. He probably doesn't really fit their timeline. So so where else does he go. Who wants him and also how do you value a pitcher like him? Somebody who struggled to stay on the field a little bit without sort of chronic injuries. That really scare you off like it's been a lot of freak accidents acute injuries And do you pay him. Like the postseason postseason hero or do you pay him like the probably good number three starter that he is now He's in a class of pitchers. I think I'd lump Hamels into this and probably to where these are big names but they're also just competent starting pitchers and howdy any big market teams. Do we see undermined for one of competent. Starting pitching I think you could the phillies into this. You want the twins into this certainly in the playoffs even the Yankees. Yeah they were looking for somebody who's better than Jay for most of last season. How even these giants and even the as good as the dodgers rotation-wise tation wise or the or the nationals? And the astros like everybody needs another at least one more starting pitcher and I think that There's this is a situation nation where there's a lot of a lot of players who fit that need on the market right now. I could see bumgarner being the Kaikal of this winter in very very similar situations as a lefty about to enter his thirties with a lot of innings under his belt and he lacks the top level strikeout numbers and peripherals that someone like Strasbourg coal do and I think it does make you wonder how he will age Especially something we haven't talked about it all is like what will the bollock like next year. And how does that affect team building. Because if Bumgarner who doesn't strike out that many and gives up a good amount of hard contact attacked if he leaves San Francisco. Is he going to give up a lot. More home runs and sap him of a lot of his value. And I think I I think other front offices offices would be rightly concerned about that but like you say if you're signing Bumgarner to be a number one and number two pitcher he probably won't give you that value but if you sign him to help around rotation and be a solid number three or four and then you can feel pretty confident with him pitching at a playoff series. That's a different story but we could have said the same thing about Kyko last last winter and he lasted until June. We shall see consciences guys at like. I think what makes this class. Interesting is the number. Uh of of solid veteran. Starters where it's not you know it's not supposed there's there could be big Big Ace level upside but all those guys are huge names. You know review and and well I guess. Ria was better than that when he was healthy last year. But he's guide all kinds of injury concerns But like Atta wainwright you know. How do you deal with that wainwright and your point about the ball? Fuck Man I don't even know what to do with that. What ball is GONNA show up? I ever heard about this during the playoffs. Because if we get the digi spoil back would change nothing else. Next year is GONNA suck. So we'll see and the cynic in me is is is just waiting for front offices to use that as as another excuse. It's not to sign people so I this is just another thing. I hope I'm wrong about Gets more money. Zack Wheeler or Madison. Bumgarner Zack Wheeler I think so too. which is absurd to think about giving give more money to Bumgarner as someone who's not a huge historical historical Madison Bumgarner Fan? I mean I just think like the if particularly if I were in a team. That has has a desperate need for a number three starter Minnesota Philadelphia or the to the most readily to mind like I want high floor and I think bumgarner gives you a higher floor dealer. You know like I guess the the big thing is like I would be concerned with winning gene rather than looking smart. And that's why you're not a general manager I guess so Thank you for not saying. And that's why you so where we look smart. 'cause you definitely could have gone there ben definitely would have. That's why you're here. And he's not Let's go back to those Tacori and real quick. I'd let's talk briefly about where we think they're going to end up and where we want them to end up because we did this Last year at the top top free agents so with Garrett Cole where I think he will end up and where I want him to end up is actually the same place which is the angels? If a team is going to offer call the most money you would think think that would be the Yankees. But as I discovered when I did some recent research the Yankees have not signed a free agent pitcher who wasn't their own so like not counting. resetting CICI's Abassiya they they haven't signed a new free agent pitcher since Masahiro Tanaka which was many many years ago so I just see after they missed out on Corbin last year. Ah that they would have a tough time paying for him. While also staying under a couple of bands of the luxury tax they seem to want whereas the angels have desperate need for starting pitching and they have the southern California connection for whatever that's worth with coal and they haven't been afraid to spend big on star players before so I think he both makes the most sense there and I want him to end up there because I'd love to see my trout in the playoffs in a rotation with Colin Otani would just be so entertaining. So here's my worry. I I also think he adds up with the angels I worry that there's something in the water there that like they've managed to go this far without converting my trout in anti playoff wins. And like like now. We're already so worried about about wasting trout and Otani. I don't WanNa waste trout Otani and coal so I wanNA move him a little farther south Out sent him to San Diego who you know him and Chris Paddock in the same rotation will be a lot of fun. I suspect that you're GonNa have something to say with the padres in their pursuit. Starting pitching however well put call in San Diego and I don't see him giving up a single run all year long. I if we're moving onto the next starting her Strasbourg so this is a tricky one I think the nationals will try to re signed one of Strasbourg and run down but probably not both both so I will say that. They're going to re-sign Strasbourg. Because he has just been the lifelong national number-one pick and he just won the MVP. So on on so on. So I think Strasbourg will end up there but you could convince me. He's going to end up as Padre But where I want streak to end up is in Los Angeles with with Garrett Cole. The angels when they signed Albert pools and CJ Wilson on the exact same day. Show that they're not afraid to go after multiple a big free agents They also signed Josh Hamilton to a big contract the very next year and again they need pitching. We need to get them into the playoffs so we can see trout there. Go Go get both coal and Strasbourg. I don't quite know how that fits in with their future payroll plans. But I mean if you have trout and Strasbourg and call call on a team. Then you can print money and sell lots of jerseys and I think we saw with Bryce Harper last year that it made the phillies a lot of money by increasing attendance and interest. Even though he didn't necessarily play up to his contract and I want the angels assigned both. I don't think they will now. Well well at the same time they've already Marino is one of the few the few like Illitch plan owners left. That is like you know I had this money. And you can't take it with you and I want to win a world series So I I could definitely see that making a move on at least one of these. Free agents I Have Strasbourg gun to to the to the PADRES You know Kohl's from Orange County you played at Ucla STRASBERG's from San Diego played at San Diego State This is just a it just feels too obvious And even though I roll my eyes though that this guy is from here thing that actually does seem to have a little bit of traction I want him to go back to the nationals. Like you said. I think that there's a that it makes so much sense for like it or let me put it this way. It makes sense for Washington to let both of these guys walk in in terms of being able to replace him I think having Carter key boom this close to the the big leagues gives them a better chance being able to replace ren don't internally the way they did with you know the the wants soda. Victor Robe lays combination with Harper and allows them to reallocate that That money elsewhere. I think like not just moving like moving on from Harper is what won the world series. It was moving on from Harper replacing him internally and then going going out and spending that money on Patrick Corbin was what got them Finally over the Hump and I could see them doing something similar with random but I think they need to keep one of these guys is at Strasbourg's the hotter replaced for me SEPARATES UP Anthony Rundown. So Anthony ant there is he go to the angels to. Aw He is not I would put him in DC. If I if they don't resign Strasbourg I think the best other place for him. MM maybe the Rangers. I've seen very little speculation on wear ran. Don't actually might end up with Texas from there. He went to college at Rice and and the Rangers are moving into new ballpark and want maybe a big name player. I think they have a sneakily kind of interesting roster by it's unclear we're how they get too much better next year and run. Don't help with that. But the place I keep coming back to for him is somewhere. I don't think ended up but hey last year I said I didn't you see Machado ending up in San Diego and he ended up signing there I think Minnesota would be a really great place for Renton. They have. Miguel SONOMA's a third. But I don't think he's a very good defender there. But more importantly with Minnesota are two factors one is that they just set the record for most home runs in a season and adding random to that lineup would elevate the ceiling even more but second is that Minnesota's future contract allocations after twenty twenty. They have basically nothing in twenty twenty one just two years from now the only players they have under contract are priori extensions for Rape Longo. Max coupler her for a combined. Eleven million dollars and those are two very good players who should make more than eleven million dollars all by themselves. The twins have a clean slate beyond them so if they give rent own own a large contract it's not like it would be eating into future payroll space. They just won the division and I would love to see them capitalize on this window of contention. Okay I hadn't really considered that but I think he talked me into it. I know they're like you said not a good defender Nelson Cruz Nelson Cruz. Free agent. This year I think they have him for another season. So that creates a little bit of a log jam and move Sonoda first base. Yeah I guess you find a way to keep all those bats in the lineup Where so I think the phillies have another big free agent signing make I I mean I was all in on them like they should sign nine both of Chato Harper last year? Or if not that one of them and Corbin or Kimbrel or or Kaikal I did it again. it. This is a team based on. Its own stated. Ambitions has no excuse to continue to spend a below the the luxury tax threshold Russia. So I think they make a run at one of these guys. I would be interested to see red just because of his his personality of each seems like it's not just quiet. It's just like seems like put off by having to deal with like all of this which I would either make him a god or a pariah in in Philadelphia and I'd be interested to see which one that which one that is There's a whole opening up there. I can't imagine that they keep rolling my cal Franco out there. Twenty only twenty and beyond. I also think that like maybe there's a possible that anthony random retires and just just decides to walk the earth that he's like well you know I've made eight fifty million dollars. Playing baseball have won a world series. I've you know there are no more worlds left for me to conquer. I'm just GONNA go buy an island in Cambodia. Were none of you can bother you anymore. I I think that would be quite interesting if you did that. So from from an international perspective seeing bryce Harper booed and Anthony Random presumably cheered appeared for winning the world series when the phillies returned to Washington would be pretty entertaining. Although that would I mean. Just elevate the robbery. I guess calling that a rivalry so so weird cause I guess the two teams haven't really been good at the same time ever and they're you know with with There is a lot of. There's there's a lot of grief about like phillies fans going down there and invading nats park and there was just bizarre bad blood about Jason Worth Earth and now somewhat more understandable bad about Bryce Harper You know it's I don't I don't. It's a very strange aged interaction. I don't know if like that's a rivalry in the same way that like phillies mets phillies braves has been. I think maybe next year. We'll finally see it. Both teams been good at the same time and chasing the the pennant at the same time. That'll keep things up. But you know I certainly couldn't hurt. I mean Shit like have them signed Strasbourg Strasbourg to just make make it. All like nats north and add that layer of emotional complexity to the whole situation. I say go for it Sounds reasonable to me in whatever gives us more content next season. Now Ain't that the truth one last note before we end. Were running close to I. I guess over our one hour recording time Baseball Prospectus has started Its list of organization Top ten lists that is essential content For any baseball fan. I say this is. BP Alumnus But a name the you guys would recognize has appeared on the Orioles top ten big Mike Big Mike Mike Bamut has taken a big leap forward. They Jeff paternoster in the guys Guys and girls over at BP are are quite quite quite bullish on Big Mike. So I'm very happy this we're just we're one step closer to to Maui wearing the Orioles Dowman Jersey around the office. I'm very excited for this. Might Pitch in the major leagues here because he grew oil at AA last season. I can't wait. I cannot wait so congratulations to big bike. continued success going forward so this is going to be our last regularly scheduled podcast of the season We will come back as needed to address big news. If you know trades free agent signings That sort of thing as we did

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