Rory Stewart

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My Name is David Runciman and this is talking politics it's a special live edition I can tell from the fact that you already you are relieved as we are rory seventeen. NPR's who voted for the second reading but voted against the aggressive timetable emotion. If we do get an election tonight sounds muddled up in that I'm speculating because I have nothing to do with number ten they didn't really speak to me very much but my sense is I see that and I think can we assume that we all right so we all down that route was that a choice made by the government because they effectively decided that there was no way getting the withdrawal agreement bill through that the seventeen view some of you couldn't be swung round was a decision that regardless of that election was the preferred option do you have a sense there is an anxiety and a guy in my constituency who voted Brexit said this he said that if Boris went to election without Brexit delivered as today I am this is part of the bees fortieth birthday celebrations alabi is the partner of talking politics we couldn't have done this podcast without the how you view my senses it's the latter there was a big concerted attempt to try to convince the government that a lot of people would be prepared to fundamental question the issue tonight and it relates to the votes that we've already had on Johnson's withdrawal agreement bill the government's agreement bill you a one it should be voting on I'm not standing again I'm trying to leave parliament's become a Maryland and so I didn't think affect the I have a dog in a fight already rights to determine six rory how come your hair how come you have to run by the first thing is can can you hear me clearly I seem to be this sort of thing to leave you in about eight minutes time we'll try to hell and Thompson is with us as well in a moment but you have a dog in the wider fight even though you'll standing down there is out that support and that generosity none of this would be possible so we're thrilled to be here to celebrate the birthday of London review of books and now we're GonNa talk politics happens conservative politicians these Theresa May at the Conference speech I'm losing my voice the reason I'm here is that I am at she no longer conservative politician and disappear he would vote for bars if brexit had already been delivered he would feel the Barcelona's job and then he wouldn't vote for bars he drew the analogy with Churchill at the end of the win election was brexit unresolved than going into election with brexit deal and I think there's potentially a a number of bad and good they've been supporting us for the last two years we've just had a ten million St- download most of us happened in the time we've been working with the L. A. B. and what the date of the election will vote for the principle of the election on third reading but that should mean that I I should be able to be with you for the next ninety minutes and then I'll return to the it was that simply the business of guessing the withdrawal agreement bill through getting the seventeen of Uber particularly Labor MP's to vote for in the end we were talking about this beforehand and from the outside it's very hard to judge what the calculations are inside Downing Street at the moment because the alternative you the the public facing view I suppose if you were going to defend the decision as to say that it does at least give the public an opportunity to express a view in house comes for the final bite I did say to David because he was beginning to question the constitution illness how hard he wanted to push this because we really convinced the I'd it's on third reading but I think the the calculation seems to have been from Dominic Cummings particularly and in the end number ten they would rather go listening and then we're going to broaden out to talk about what it might mean more broadly for British Pulisic's for democracy just before we start I want to say how do they want to remove from the whip because by going straight into an election now it means that Philip Hammond David Gawk Ken Clarke would try to ensure there would be a customs union as part of the future economic relationship well given the backstop skull and that's actually really I do think that there were reasonable reason to suppose that the path of withdrawal agreement they'll through the House of Commons would have been pretty forward that somebody like me voted against the promotion as a sign that parliament's obstructing get the the movement going then recalculations also some indirect form on this deal and therefore worthy to win a very large majority of the back of this there might be might be an argument that would be a little bit more legitimacy and myself I'm a bit different because I've decided to leave but they're all people who wouldn't be able to stand again in their inconsistencies the good reason I think that it was the possibility of an amendment over the customs union that was particularly difficult in this respect and it's been quite a bit of time over the go to achieve because they political declaration hasn't got anything from the withdrawal agreement any longer that sort of structurally creates a bias in favor of attrition so it seems to me that that way lay muddle if on the other hand the idea was to amend job ingredient bill in relation to the aw whether I got an opinion really on what their actual motivations were different races to worry obviously go inside view about what's going on number ten war that he would be very for one purpose and one purpose entity I think the second thing is that allows them to create this narrative of people against parliament and use the fact for these amendments which are that's on whether the data the election should be the seventh of December and the ninth December doesn't feel to me is something would be in the wider context of British democracy to get consent from the people who are going to feel whatever happens that they'd been excluded from this how did you I'm trying to work out what those who said they wanted to push such an amendment we're actually trying to achieve without really reaching any clear knowledge about what we're trying to achieve it was not a fight worth having relative to this D- do you sense Helen of which way this was likely to go we're not going down that route or had had the election so the entire point of this new deal of the different steam viruses injuries may steal was getting rid of the customs union so how'd you amended it to try and some funny fashion to re getting it through in the indicative votes it was my attempt to try to get a soft breaks compromise but it is quite clear that this deal is partial deal the main point of it on both the second reading and on the timetabling motion that the government got all two hundred and eighty five of them through on both could have held the amendment is of course from the point of view of people who rejected theresa may steal they rejected it on the grounds that it was effectively a customs union through a treaty in the direction of a customs union more you can't do that because it's not for the legislature to change treaty being negotiated with the twenty yeah because we're in a way that's the question one of the most remarkable features was that there was unanimity among conservative impede who are still fully conservative and peas the majority in parliament for something other than it's cool well that's where it becomes more complicated again because then you could say well given the way that the some of the due to bind a future government future executive in the way negotiate on some sentence behind a parliament in the way in which he would vote on saying we will agree only to make amendments which are not legally binding on the next parliament as though people were going to feel really good here the line again they will be physically sick the public of God it and the coming strategy seems to be that he thinks now the public even so it's the implication of that therefore though it looked very precarious when it came to it in the end this bill wasn't really amendable in a way that could be a customs union at least not to the extent that it did win the back stock was in place so if you then wanted men political declaration that in the direction of a customs union what you're then trying to can't do that under the British constitution now can say we have a constitution long-gone somewhat tempted to that but we still supposed to have a constant this take back control phrase is just one example of extraordinary ability to generate three word phrases I went out for you've does get to the heart of the difficulties is were they looking to amend the political declaration in ways that would they really have swallowed the line it doesn't matter whether you amend the political declaration or not because it doesn't actually matter I find it hard to believe that some of them actually they're all polarizing some people think that he's a machiavellian genius of people think that he's a monster the person reminds me of his allies to Campbell partly because the deal that if they just tried to drive it through the House of Commons at the moment that oversees subbing for much bigger debate we're gonNA come onto that because we want to talk more broadly about what it it's making many people inside political life almost physically sick to see the lengths that have been gone to the line is he tried his damned the country and sure enough short enough sure enough two days later what would it have held I don't know I don't know I think to be fair to the government probably would have been quite difficult remember I'm in the back story to this customs it's not in a binding way I'm in heaven saps right and in fact that she was an extraordinary last minute attempt by the whips and various others to get people to sign a letter done defeat Jeremy Corbyn reunite the country it's defeat Jeremy Corbyn get brexit done reunite the country I think the last one is probably impossible so in a way that August yes I think a lot of this has comings and in a sense he he would you would afford had quite a good career as a copywriter some people relatively sued people who've maybe hoping against hope that the preferred outcome is still an option are going to find that it's not and reuniting the country has to mean and he said what you say is you've got to say there are only three things that need to be done get brexit done beat Jeremy Corbyn reunite anyway because as an electoral strategy so effective and I've been thinking if people can tell us he wrote you don't cummings is playing in the fate of this nation but Gotcha job at tweets out thrown three things you gotta do then Jeremy Hunt three things you gotta do and then finally bars three things we've got to do dot signing that document a few foreign elections so it wouldn't have been legally binding but it was as you say is the worst of all worlds sufficiently provocative the but during the phrase is used often losers consent which is the thing that has been missing from British politics for the last three plus years there's one thing that we haven't had she's whatever happens but particularly now the route is through a general election an apple in the immediate term through a second referendum why would they think that now is the time to consent I mean obviously quite a member of them on. I think we shouldn't overdo this in attention chinatown with him when I was the only time she ever spoken to Him we had dim-sum together in Chinatown for this was what I was running for the conservative leadership them again but if you ask the question the referendum took place should we accept the result and implement it you can get polling in that area I think the the number of remind voters who have done the polling on this varies but some of those you can see up to sixty percents saying referendums should be honored it's eighty cents from the people who might lose they would consent to lose so now we were passing through the narrow prism of general election even if the Conservative Party is to try to leave a customs union so how'd you reinserted a customs union is very difficult believe the algae we're going along with that and wasn't reinsert -able for the reasons that Jalen's had got to win a majority it's going to be on what forty percent of the vote maximum so that still leaves a lot of losers consistency back into general election politics turned out to be not correct and lay believers believed that they could vote for the party ways the referendum was away allowed Aleve coalition to express itself in referendum politics it would have been much more difficult for it oh great knack that to be able to generate phrases that that every campaign thinks genius yeah and so now doing them in a different order so it's not get br the last few weeks because I think the interesting thing about Brexit in this respect is that if you go back to the referendum in doc it's not that everybody who voted remain in two thousand sixteen has not accepted the referendum result there's clearly quite significant cashews and so it can still be the case that actually the conservatives can't peel enough of of the Non Tori Lee voters interesting thing that's happened in terms of the future in a way of loses consent is changing the change of tack that the Liberal Democrats in particular made conservative I'm one of the difficulties than that we've been in since June two thousand seventeen is is that to resume thinking that she could mobilize and people take that view about Campbell to but because Campbell was used to say just at the point where the people inside Westminster even not that close to Westminster think if they have to asleep been about getting back to a second referendum and hoping that that is the means of defeating the first now gambling this time because the liberal away as you say you only need forty percent ish vote for the Conservative Party on at the same time as we know there are many more leave consistencies in there advantage them in two thousand seventeen and on a forty percent whatever vote sheriff if the Conservative Party get to that we get Johnson's Brexit the customs union and I say this is somebody who's in federal custody I organized Ken Clarke Amendment pushing for customers in a week at she failed by three votes that that's why the hell didn't if you want to kick off this bit of the discussion and by the way because we've got rory we hope for the whole evening we're going to have plenty of time is remained Britain reconcilable that well I'm going to be very cheeky because I'm very interested in this idea I'm interesting idea of how many people voted remain you general election politics in two thousand seventeen actually then disadvantage leave coalition and you can see the Democrats position when they're not being talking about revoked because the cheating so in a way we got two explanations what's going on tonight one of which is it would have been hard for the government the other which is that actually the government prefers this that we should honor the result of the referendum whether this muses consent how many people in this room who voted remain feel that you should know the results of the referendum I took slightly few I look these things are very very odd I mean I don't know really how to think my way through this the need voters are possible that this election fundamentally favors the leave coalition in principle yes in principle because John in a general election not least because it allowed people who voted labour he wanted to vote for Brexit to vote for brexit without home too sophisticated friends including some very distinguished political philosophers absolutely determined to reject this outcome I don't know how they think we should resolving disputes society. I don't know how they would want me as a politician to response votes in the future if this is there else I began from a very primitive view which is that we disagree about things and nobody is going to convince me that I was wrong uh remained constituencies if you go back to two thousand sixteen in McCoy onto a general election map because remained voters more geographically concentrated accept the the majority view and it's been a very very interesting experience to discover that some of my most highly intelligent six people very very frightened of losing this election particularly in parliament and that's what we're seeing tonight we don't know how it's going to play out people the room think that if the Conservatives win a big majority that would give a bit more legitimacy divorces deal interesting have you almost feel like saying when people say to me you can never be mayor of London unless you come out immediately for revoke immediately take Lib dem view I what's the ones who've changed parliamentary with Michigan having this election they gambling this time on a on a general election which the point of view remain is pretty disadvantages because this is an entirely representatives that's very encouraging I mean I was assuming that almost no hands would go up I feel a little bit encouraged is literally almost every I have is in favor of a referendum wants to overturn tournaments illegitimate that I wouldn't how many election in which there is probably more at stake than there has been relatively speaking any election in recent memory because this is an election about two things about he partly because as you know about making any kind of predictions but at the same time is you still going to insert into an election that looks like it's about Brexit all these domestic I'm somebody who voted remained and argued strongly for rain and then felt after the referendum that we had to own them that result the impression I get session leader is literally nobody agrees then those who say that it shouldn't be down in more like in the twenty twenty five percent let's say so then you've got quite a lot of don't knows now they make things very differently if they could for questions from the audience to go tell us if your phone says something different I don't WanNa promise he going to be not so there is this much bigger question the end of it is really toughened I mean part of it is to do with the rules of the game I mean that's the other challenge here which is I mean we're seeing it tonight so there is I think that Britain was better off in the European Union that we already had the best deal but the fact was I lost and that the sort of rules and the rules in our society are that we they would still get brexit and d labels to take boats back from those Labor voters who had lost to UK particularly in two thousand fifteen that you guys get a vote once every two years five years and then you have to agree to sub contractual brain too I'm not GonNa say Pretty Patel but in any case somebody somebody in government who then governs for you and then they decide at the end constitution is and I think that that's true of many members of parliament I think that is true of many of us are citizens before last year's exclude myself from elections you can see that I think in the middle of the nineteenth century and at some point I think that join me you did have something to do with this but I think it was the trying to tinker with the rules I mean at least potentially tribes with the rules because there's too much stake in this election and that seems to me to be one of the big risks for security got it in fifty or one hundred years time it wouldn't make sense I mean there are couple of things that are obviously wrong the first thing is that we don't really have a constitution in the way that other countries the constitution I noticed this first big rebellion was when David Cameron tried to affect the abolish the House of Lords on the basis of a simple majority his political history on that particularly those in parliament but actually as citizens into this as well acted with some caution with some prudence the reason for it to happen at some point along the way we lost sight of what our Constitution was and then we've tried to deal since two thousand June two thousand sixteen with a massive constitutional in the House of Commons that really focus the fact that in any other country constitutional law is different from normal you need some special procedure to do it you conscious had a simple had a historic constitution and the only way in which it worked was that people had a knowledge about the history of that constitution on indeed where you have members of parliament signing amendments wanting in the course of an afternoon to change the franchise before an election takes place it's mind boggling for many Tacoma Seventy Roy on analysis do you think that remain Britain if this election disadvantages them in the way that it's sort of consented the future which is what we're actually doing each time we try and get to our decisive electoral outcome is gaming it which makes it much harder to persuade the losers in the country and for the reasons you said the danger of Johnson is the if brexit were done it could become a twenty-seven domestic election again so it's now about two things that I think it's taken brexit and what's happened over the last few years I think to make something really clear about our country's politics nowadays is that Chryssa promptly seventy for me is the most acute constitutional pressure point I think actually that we have just as a country forgotten the whole thing is is so shoddy I mean it's the contempt for APP thing for the monarchy for parliament the parole in the purging in many ways so many people in the House of Commons we haven't really got a system going where you're really able to deliberate and consider things in depth and and feed into the uses with most people walking around in the state of constitutional ignorance and I think that is why we could get to this I regard this absurd situation this afternoon this way of doing politics can no longer work and does that mean data for the one thing that we must have is some set of rules that take some of the I should know proper scrutiny today on the eve of nationals people don't want to think about press I mean you could agree that sixteen in the and I'm the only remain who readers for anyway feels channel resort referendum it struck me that this was about thirty percent of the which was interesting seeming it's all part and parcel of general sort of contempt for the Constitution Otley you see often the people are playing fast and loose with it this in relation to that constitutional history because that's what the Constitution rested upon continue judgment and often invoked in the past actually having quite channel anybody's not follow this literally amendments being put down to give sixteen seventeen year olds with no debate no consideration Powell's comments to deepen which is that I really am beginning to think that this is basically a medieval setup parliament the idea is spy merits and demerits but you know the speaker and Jacob rees-mogg and Dominic grieve are all in different ways playing strengths. He's here we hope the rory can stay we thought we were going to have to do this quite quickly we have a little more time we will talk about what's happening it's like saying but do you really want a politician he's not gonNa pay any attention to the way that Jason is just going to say I disagreed so I found this a very complicated process I haven't really the constitution while posing as great great defenders the constitution and he's one of the things that we've learned the great risk with it's not unwritten but is uncoated and it's on both sides we notice it when the brakes do the remains have been doing it too but often you have these very grand statement it's nothing is out of bounds that once he starts a politics where people channel that political ambitions through the rules of the game changing the rules of the game fleet tempted towards that view I was very very cheered up by the Supreme Court the sentence I love most Samat Supreme Court ruling is when the court says it's going to just get rid of the second chamber it's it's mad and the way that the speakers been behaving is be mad in the way that the program missions have been arranged Madam and so the game out of parliamentary politics which means we need a coat a flawed constitution but I'm increasingly d furnace glass there is a problem I mean I'm I'm actually at the moment pretty grateful to be leaving parliament I think the basic setup here is wrong I think if you were looking of two or five years that they gonNa let you have another one vote again I mean whereas in fact 'cause you're much more educated much more experienced shoved aside but surely feel this isn't the way to do it to make that kind of decision at plus women I mean that's what I felt about Cameron's attempts to Abolish House of Lords agree disagree about about those budget-conscious for the sake in that particular case for trade with Lib Dem's reduce the number of MP's and he could win more seats in parliament but that parliament should have a say in the form in which that brexit should take place is indisputable now it's very rare to get someone Chris audience but the court says it is not for this court to determine whether or not brexit should happen that decision was made the people the great advantage of the British constitution historically was that it was quite responsive to democratic politics it was quite responsive to public opinion in now this relates to this question 'cause I suspect that if I had become leader of the Conservative Party I would be able to bring in a citizens assembly relatively essentially it's the grand jury so you select random citizens to be representative maybe a room about half the size and then they listen to evidence and they come opponents and if if parliament starts playing around with those rules something very odd is going on I suppose the oddity in Britain is that it's taken I mean fundamentally the the point is the question of who gods gods themselves theoretically these concentrations exist to protect you against abuse out the thing that concerns me about having written constitution even the entirely clear how we can carry on with what we got with a view and this worked very well in Ireland this you've abortion I was very keen to try to do it in relation to brexit because it's remarkable that she the people do emerge with the recent companies friend on joining the market and she says no because what would happen if the people in the referendum votes in in a way that was different from the Bloomington time very eloquently address this question of understand rules respect historical precedent in the nation of Prince. That's where we are today it goes back to parliament and it's hard to feel that that judgment has losting resonance in British in a salon to really start doing since such an egregious fashion that people behaved so well for so long seems to be the mystery not that eventually decided this it ends up backing democratic politics in a very bitter and polarizing way so I mean I've come to the view that I would like to hold onto what we've had I'm just unless I can somehow be enshrined it's puts it back on parliament parliament is behaving the way parliament is behaving today do you think it does it echo through or was it easily and given it quite a lot of authority in the in our system and I actually thinking about I'm concerned that if we lived in a more codified world plus as many people on that day were numerously chaired by I know the people who finally thought that some reasonable perspective being injected into this and yet in constitution let me try to illustrate why I'm not she tempted to agree with this I for example I'm an enormous fan citizen's assemblies I mean I think about it jars him parliament we would have a constitutional crisis that stage she'd been convinced this was about your mind the so I don't know people listening to this podcast will believe us when we say it sounds like you said reading okay all right I will run back I promise I I go I don't know whether you've seen this astringent that Mrs Thatcher gifts in the early nineteen seventies where she asked I think by Robin Dale someone on television whether there should be the question about whether we can get back again and I'm quite skeptical about whether we can get it back again but I'm also pretty skeptical about going down the road I say with all the good side of that on the ills of that too on the constitution that you end up with the more power I think we can bring him into the Cuna then I didn't know how quickly he can run so there are be catastrophic because the I did that have any legitimacy than anything else seems to be absurd but the other thing that says a group of MP's to get him to commit to a citizens assembly to help with Brexit I'm convinced that this is assembly at the start of the referendum process as part of the discussions about what the referendum was for how it should be fought even what the question should be would have been helpful to she's a citizens assembly now essentially I think we all agree in various ways being abused the union is also probably under greater pressure than it has been in our lifetime do you think this tim is going to be another potential breaking point for the Union I mean there is a view view again the johnsons coming oh I think what we should do because rory will be back is holding I should just try and as it were bid up then rory comes back he literally did run out of the room halfway through that thought so whether we should complete tool for him now that he's not here a possible like direction of travel within the Conservative Party whereby commitment to the Union including northern I mean there was you may remember there was an attempt to the point where parliament couldn't decide what it wants to do it just kept voting against various brexit options there was an attempt unbending commitment that Theresa may made through negotiations of the withdrawal agreement was a commitment to Northern Ireland's place island may well weaken through time and I think in retrospect what does become clear is the one sort of overriding issue here is the union and I was going to go on ask worry about that I maybe when he comes back we can pick up on this because we only have a constitution that is under enormous pressure and is onto give to people at Westminster where co defied constitutions go and you're gonNA give more you're going to get more authority judiciaries we've seen what kind of politics ends up within the artist in the Union and at the same time not wishing to have any change at all on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland I think we have to distinguish when it comes to the union between the issues in relation to Northern Ireland and the issues in relation to Scotland because I think that there is there's lots more tensions to come in the relationship between the Conservative Party and unionism in Northern Ireland I think the paradox in Scotland I think I've said weeding or prioritizing I should say Northern Ireland's position economically within the United Kingdom over North Island economy so I anything else that she did even freedom of movement during the transition there was bend in it over those questions she didn't bend a tool she was passionate unit before is that everything in the short term looks like it strengthens the nationalist case in Scotland but everything in the medium to long-term about citizen's assemblies scattered though I'm also a fan I'm more skeptical rory in the current situation that introducing a citizens assembly now it happens weakens it because the whole independent project rests on shared European Union membership rested on Scotland the Union keeping Northern Ireland in the customs code in particular but divorced been put into a difficult position because this withdrawal agreement unlike the one to resume and I think that the agreement that Boris Johnson has negotiated has the the unionists in a very difficult position indeed the whole unionist community is not united although it is the majority Northern Ireland United About Brexit and it's not united about in Scotland and indeed the other unionist parties my worldly seats to the nationalist so we're going to see an intensifying of the pressure for a referendum in Scotland at the same when they're in a very difficult position because they're being asked to agree to something that clearly violates the spirit at least into the practice collation is the sacrifice of the union is a price worth paying for conservative hegemony in England. I'm very much doubt that that's Johnson's view about Scotland mythic comes is played out in short term politics or medium-term politics because we know that short-term politics can in the end be the thing that decides it must at least be time I still think that if it ends up even the European Union then that makes an independent Scotland more difficult to realize but in a way that it depends on whether the referendum live events in the past and I've said if something really dramatic happened someone needs to shout it out the proposed data's now ernest when it came to Northern Ireland I think that there's a direction of travel within the Conservative Party that will move away from that kind of commitment missile but it's very difficult to see how a Scottish referendums going to come before the brexit issue is resolved fully resolved I'm not suggesting in relation to whether that means was an independent state to get inside the EU rested on Wrestling Kingdom staying in the European Union we've already seen how much difficulty the euro they are thinking about their competition with Labor as they all the issue of Brexit and I think that they are suggests that the Conservatives have done much better than labor in reasserting themselves as the place to go if you want breaks it to happen the question really is whether on the other side it looks unlikely this time but then in England the other thing that did happen was that to party politics reasserted itself and the way this is the big question for this election Shuna currency issues call the national in the two thousand fourteen referendum before they have to start dealing with this single market of the United Kingdom verses he discussed one more thing about this coming election and if Roy runs back in the third reading was lost we're going to have quite hard to construct but there is clearly hope among the other parties that it could go radically different ways so the two thousand seventeen election two things in a way so one we've touched on is that the unionist case was strengthened the unionist parties and include Labor in that in this context picked up seats from the SMP in Scotland election with Jeremy Corbyn still as leader of the Labour Party and that there's been enough movement within both the Parliamentary Party Corbin's office McDonald's they do not want to fight an election with some alternative Labour leader so they are about to the difficulty that they had in so if there's an election when rory comes back he can tell us what actually happened in parliament and if he doesn't come back then we know it's a little kicked off we'd have an election is more about Kobe than about Brexit I'm not saying it's more about Kuban than it's about Brexit but I'm saying it's partly about Corbin I suspect as well as about brexit that's the date so Tennessee where we are in real time eight fifty so we've done a few of these yeah I think there's something interesting that's happened in the way in which the Liberal Democrats have moved over the last ten days or so I think that the belief that ultimately if you want to stop the conservative government a Labour vote is your best bad also reasserts itself negotiate it as a consent for Northern Ireland in it and it's based on a majority and the democratic unionists on themselves in which that might happen again because when it really comes to it if there was any chance for those who want to stop brexit happening two thousand fifteen and they were squeezed on although that they weren't in a strong position in the opinion polls election started if you'd official those issues of personnel around them to think that that might be up for grabs in the Short Liberal Democrat we've been speculating because the polls pointing this way but we've been burned once too often the possibility of a conservative majority which is still the market of the European Union facility of a hard border in Scotland so although that I think that this election that concert is certainly seats to the nationalist canonic future the future economic relationship I meant the resolution of whether we are leaving on kind of one more thing both the Tory majority and Brexit who whatever reason they might be different reasons but that they will be organized guidance in relation to candidates and elating that the Liberal Democrats would do better in terms of percentage of the vote than Labor would and then what happened over the course of the election is leap communist that didn't seem like a very agonizing choice but given the two thousand seventeen happen it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Germany called then the conservatives have to be deprived of their majority and it's still easier to do that in most seats by boating labor is voting for the Nipple Democrats is that a very strong anti-tory dynamic set in to the benefit of the party now I can see where he constituencies I mean if this election coming in six weeks there's no time to arrange that and there's mistrust across the board in British politics between all of the one back about six weeks doesn't seventeen yeah six weeks or so is there wasn't in a bad position there were certainly people at the beginning of that campaign two thousand seventeen he was it doesn't look like the most likely scenario that he could end up leading the largest party and yet on the other hand because everything on the other hand I think that the dynamic Labour benefited from a watered down I'm gonNA say she'd say that Labor benefit from in two thousand seventeen was lots in two thousand fifteen which is to say that you in voting Labour are basically voting for the SMP to have too much influence in indicia fairs that worked very well for the Conservatives in two thousand fifteen it didn't work in two thousand seventeen because there wasn't sufficient fear amongst potential voters it's to do with anything else because he is in a position where on the one hand could appeal to that this could actually happen but it's pretty clear this time that the scenario could happen so the fear factor about some pe- certain certain and there's been so much turbulence in the ways in which rotates reacted to things over the last few years it's not out of the bounds and I think the other thing we need we've just been breath custody the quick the main thing to remember is that from the moment the division bell goes it's exactly eight minutes Kosei reconstruction this outside because I don't have any inside knowledge of this thinking that they absolutely need to fight would need to need to be in some kind of a parliamentary arrangement with the SMP and then then that opens up the Conservatives play in the car that they did before leaving okay thanks rate that we've been so we've done the union sorted we talked about I think we should take questions because when he comes back it would be great too not least hear what actually happened about if there is a realistic prospect that Corwin could be prime minister then the two thousand fifteen done we'll also come back into play which is the Labor then finally the hope that are being expressed that they will be coordination just tactical voting just leading up to voters to work out what's the best bat of stopping people could say I'm voting Labour from our local pay and I'll just turn a blind is the fact that I really don't want Jeremy Corbyn prime minister because it didn't seem any possibility that Jeremy Kuban could be will ultimately to potty politics reassert itself in one thousand nine thousand nine hundred and at the moment on the Brexit side the police and come back into play okay so each time the door opens I keep thinking that our besuited heroes are gonNA come running back in but he hasn't yet so this nine players but do you think it could be different this time I'm not saying we'll be different but I think it could well be different as I say when I think that is as much to do with be promised I'm not sure if you like simply splitting your mind in two ways of thinking about it can quite work in the same way in which it did give you all presumably in some sense still a small c conservative I spend my answer prudence at home restraints and broad some respect for tradition small farmers in Cumbria and it's really about your your own future but also your relationship to British party politics so you're no longer a capital C. concerned and seven-party very long they threw me out before it reached my tenth year and how given that you did join late you then shut the doors on so if any of you have to do it again the important thing is to get to the bottom of the stairs at the entrance at the same time I'm not really very party political I mean I I was a Labor Party member in my youth with John McDonnell who is standing next to which I realized that there wasn't much chance this vote being lost in the yes so both conservative maybe cases I come from a conservative tradition that broadly speaking believes in in individual rights and limited government she is that on the one hand of course we say to the public look you need your MP to be part of a party and to be whipped otherwise tossing and then a couple of people shouted out things on their phones and we thought we should wait you to come back to tell us what happened so in parliament and now you had to vote with the whip and it was an issue that caused you problems over the years how constraining did it feel I mean how London Sun running for mayor and so in some sense it's a good as I'm a I'm a conservative in that sense I mean I'm not get a sense of how rarest I think Mrs Thatcher never voted against the government in her entire career so the idea that there's much point in these MP's really the possibility of whether we're GonNa get twenty fifteen again on twenty seventeen again we will take naps questions I'd like to ask you rory a couple more questions before we take things in New Orleans hey it's the first past the post system that is holding these two parties the two main parties in place and yet it feels like that can't carry on forever then you've gotta somehow get through made it and having made it all the way I discovered that the first person I noticed walks into my divisional the natural did it feel as a non-party ember to the it's very constraining natural because it's essentially parts of the general problem with our contract with the public scrutinizing legislation in detail is a little bit misleading and therefore everything we're taught in school about what the point of being an MP in terms of scrutiny on what the sense of autonomy I mean the truth of the matter is that when you ask most MP's than a division lobby what they're voting on they pause and struggle for a moment to work out what it is and thinks the parties are quite useful way of organizing people but it is basically very very demoralizing because you lose all can't guarantee that when you vote for manifesto that manifest is going to be delivered on the other hand of course we also have an idea of the independent MP who votes there the accident submit different portraits but then you've got to jump over the new security procedures that they've set up outside the House of Commons without policeman getting worried about it's cracking it's obviously cracking it's cracking I because we were always told that the point about the first past the post system was that you had strong majority governments and that clearly isn't the case anymore there hasn't really been the case since two thousand five I think the second thing which is cracking is that these parties have been dragged to their extremes clearly launch because of something very understandable which is the parties wanted to give their members and then I am joined the Conservative Party as three months before his election as a conservative MP so I haven't been a member probably much more conservative views on globalization multiethnic state and you can see this story's coming out of conservative central office that they were Sion's who shows their moral courage votes against the government very very difficult things to bouncer book famous but suspicious of the either of the independent white working class Labor voces who will have much more conservative views on immigration much conservative views on law and order these members have tended to drag the Labor Party to the left and the Conservative Party to the right and the Conservative Party is now I think permanently drag to the Oh has united the Conservative Party for now these fundamentally divided parties when and walk is something going to give you sit in the United States to a first century first-past-the-post-system it also mass verging third readings we have and do we have a day thank you right this whole election strategy yeah permanently because this entire dominic coming strategy is predicated on the idea that they lose thirty but it's always those parties have always been more diverse than ours what's GonNa give because these bodies cannot carry on like this for ten twenty thirty targeting people on the basis of used on trump's agenda was one of the ways in which stepping up now once you've built coalition that depends on let's say you out of the room we talked about the strains on the union the parties themselves are under deep strain and this is a phenomenon across Europe it's a phenomenon established political parties of the left away from Union Block votes and distributed amongst the individual members and of course if you're a conservative it makes sense to think you're going to take it away from smoke-filled rooms McMillan sort of tapping douglas hume on the shoulder towards a world in which all the members is says have the results of course being that this the seats basically in Scotland London the South West which means they're thirty down before they start going to pick up sixty seats and they're going to try to pick them up in the north waiting on because if you understand that my friend Richard Bannon I think voted once against the government in his life and was probably had the conservative whip removed from him and at some point something's gotta give maybe the first part of the post system will give maybe the parties will give this election could test it I mean fundamentally though the deal sort of sexual liberalism of the camera those voters are not not going to want I think you've been taken hostage by that group you've created a Trumpian coalition east so they're going to try to pick up people who are really speaking different ways of describing voter group but that traditional the legislature or parliament is seems a bit on when the actual lived reality is that if you're on the Conservative Party almost all the time to the center ground because if you suddenly start to do what part is sometimes pretends he wants to do which is to sort of go back to me and people that go can Kent Clark but it's also no accident that they're not giving us back the whip you would've thought they would give Ken Clarke back at least the web but the articulating a vision of the relationship between direct democracy indirect mumps in the courts and I very cheered up to see the Supreme Court beginning to do a bit of political all say in electing their leaders it was a very understandable decision very difficult to argue against if you're a labor MP of course it sounds right that you're going to take the cermony cobaine you you do what websites until finally before we all Scott Frost got some questions we talked about the strange on the constitution turn the Conservative Party and was Trumpian Republican Party which is why it's no accident really did that in a sense yes it's true that they threw out sixty eight that are representing Hartley Pool Sutherland bishops and it's very difficult to move back to the rights particularly Social Democratic parties but also center left Party in Germany you've seen hidden Franz and yet in the you very much rory just following on from that last point where you characterize some northeastern voters where does that leave the neoliberal they really can't because they're on this journey which I think they're not not really coming back from I think we should open it up whilst it's actually causing considerable distress to many people involves police brutality on a regular basis towards her sister so although this is Johnson conservative ironically may end up spending more that isn't because they're becoming more centrist or more left wing but it's because it's perfectly we've had a constitutional crisis where we've been doing it most of the public school discussion that takes place is still on the side of being quite civil that's true so you talk about the kind of swing back to the right inventory party and you've talked about the kind of deep chaos seems to be so cultural assists it's on controlling public spending and I think what you'll see is that the news thrown out of the party is Philip Hammond who's a sort of very strong fiscal conservative and his basic disagreement with Boris isn't really on Socialist Theresa May I mean can you see the beginnings of that in the mayhem and it's not just Johnson and comings of come in they were working on something that was already there union trying to fix brexit trying to sort out the US relations with Russia tried to constrain merckel about China but actually there's a domestic political crisis in France has been going on impassable to be a big spender and be a populist I mean these things are not necessarily contradictory but I think you're right in thinking that the sort of Hammond stranded I think that the reason for tourism is actually to look comparatively at what's going on in other countries politics not seeing what's going on in France where it's very easy for Mackerel to present himself as the person WHO's trying to reform the European thing off democratic process at the moment is there anything to feel optimistic about McCain over short-to-medium-term future British politics the country's politics we have managed

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