Joe Biden has 18-point lead in South Carolina, new poll shows


But we begin at this hour for with your update from South Carolina now everyone including me sort of precipitously declare Joe Biden's campaign debt that's because he finished horribly and I will finish horribly in New Hampshire barely finish second in Nevada and so the the sort of going wisdom was that he was gonna collapse in South Carolina as well there's a new polling data out and it's showing that maybe his bat on that South Carolina firewall maybe he wasn't entirely wrong there two new polls out today one is from East Carolina University initialed by number eight thirty one percent to twenty three percent for Bernie Sanders and a second poll from Clemson University that shows a Biden up eighteen percent eighteen percent say blow out for a bite and that follows hot on the heels of a public policy poll that shows that that Biden is up fifteen percent which means that the new poll average in South Carolina she was a big spike for Biden it shows Biden is according to FiveThirtyEight shows Biden at thirty one percent in Sanders a twenty one percent if Biden would blow out Sanders in South Carolina in fact there's a new poll that shows the tenders actually running below times tire in South Carolina believe or not if Bernie were to finish third in South Carolina and buy more to clean up in South Carolina this radically region there's the race in a serious serious way why will suddenly it appears that Joe Biden is a living human being and that is a massive thing because then we move on to super Tuesday and once we get super Tuesday remember South Carolina has a lot of delegates I don't want it all gets once you get to super Tuesday if Biden is cleaning up in the southern states and Bernie is cleaning up in the northern states in say California you could very easily end up with an incredibly close race sirtuin allergies that are out about this today they're worth checking into because maybe this race isn't quite so over as we were expecting depending on what happens on to everything comes out of Saturday okay if Biden doesn't win in South Carolina the suckers over Sanders the nominee if Biden wins and very very close Sanders is still likely the nominee if Biden wins it just blows Sanders out of Sanders completely collapses in South Carolina if he gets going in South Carolina suddenly this looks like a race because you could end super Tuesday with a very close race in terms of delegate count and then it is a two man race Sanders and Biden down to the wire with presumably Bloomberg continuing to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into anti Sanders ads and all establishment money moving over by these bad really hasn't picked up a lot of money yet because frankly he's a corpse so five thirty eight has an analysis they're looking at super Tuesday so super Tuesday they're a bunch of states that our programs are California Texas North Carolina Virginia Massachusetts Minnesota Colorado Tennessee Alabama Oklahoma Arkansas Utah Maine Vermont and American Samoa those are the the states and territories that are open on super Tuesday but a late check out daily wire would have live coverage all evening long on super Tuesday Sanders is widely expected to do very well in California the polls are showing that right now in Texas Sanders and Biden running neck and neck but if Jenner is Barbara blowouts Anderson South Carolina that obviously changes things rather radically in North Carolina Sanders is running slightly ahead of iden but again if I does real well in South Carolina that may change radically in terms of North Carolina right now Sanders expected to do well in Virginia began that could change radically Massachusetts Sanders will win handily walking away Sanders is expected to compete pretty evenly with club which are in Minnesota is expected to win handily in Colorado in Tennessee Alabama Oklahoma you should expect a big bite and boost if in fact Sanders were to collapse in South Carolina the same is true of Arkansas probably true in Utah probably true in in major American Samoa but that's like four four votes in in terms of delegate count five thirty eight as it should be a good night for Sanders delegate wise just as it should be in terms of votes for forecasting and to take on five hundred eighty seven delegates but remember that's in the average model running some runs he gets more others fewer but by name Bloomberg are also forecasted to get three hundred and five and two hundred eleven delegates now this is something you noticed Bloomberg is dropping precipitously in state polls he is dropping precipitously in national polling so the flavor of the week is done those last two debates have not how Bloomberg he's looking credibly week warnings taken out Bloomberg basically which means maybe that those voters go back to Biden if Biden shows that he is not a dead human in South Carolina warrant bridging club which are far bar far behind judge not significant number of delegates only out of California club which are from Minnesota and warm from California Texas Massachusetts in the five thirty eight numbers but here is the key says Nate silver at FiveThirtyEight these numbers could and likely will change they're still just under a week before super Tuesday plenty of time for the race to shift as we had a debate on Tuesday night and South Carolina but Saturday even small fluctuations in vote share can greatly affect the number of delegates each of these candidates gets that's because in order to be eligible for any delegates from a state or district a candidate has to get at least fifteen percent of the vote there and many non Sanders candidates are hovering right around fifteen percent in many states California is a good example on average they say we're currently forecasting by twin fourteen percent seventeen percent of the vote there warns when fourteen bluebirds went thirteen judge when ten because California is what so many delegates who gets fifteen percent is super important if the numbers were right only Biden Sanders we get a share of California's a hundred and forty four statewide delegates but minor variation could really scramble the picture so it's a mess it's a mess again those polling numbers in South Carolina and it's not those late breaking pulling numbers out of South Carolina it looks actually quite strong for Joe Biden going into the election the last three pulls out of South Carolina how Biden up average double digits eighteen fifteen eight K. N. Biden's got some momentum in South Carolina James Clyburn this was a very influential congressman from South Carolina particularly with the black community in South Carolina he came out today give a big speech about Joe Biden why he's endorsing by his club endorsing Biden I am fearful for the future of this country favor for my daughter's in the future and the other children the children's future the countries of the flexion point it is time for us to to restore

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