It's an ill wind: Covid 19
This week ill wind. It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good. And this week's wind is of course the cove nineteen corona virus outbreak. It's bad for most people but there are some upsides as we'll see in a moment I think the most serious aspect of all this is the uncertainty nobody knows is gonNA play out an already markets down serious consequences of beginning to. We don't know how dangerous viruses going to be all how far will spread by ninety nineteen. Spanish flu killed more people than ever died in the war times very different than there was limited understanding of the disease a No to treat infectious side effects like pneumonia governments decided that it would damage morale to tell the truth and in the US and Europe. Reports of the disease were widely suppressed. Medical advice was ignored a not shed with citizens so no bans on public gatherings and parades soldiers returning from the front with the infection spread widely through such events and eventually killed some fifty fifty million people across the world. That's a mortality rate of two to three percent. Saas which broke out in two thousand and three is another corona virus the maturity rate for that was ten percent but the number of cases was very much smaller less than nine thousand before the outbreak was stumped virus of nineteen as already seeing more than ten times the number of cases that occurred with Saas with a mortality rate of about three percent. That could be overstated. If not all cases of being recognized if more people are actually suffering from the virus then the percentage must be lower. We can only wait and see on that most fatalities occurring in patients with pre existing health problems but most people infected by Covy nineteen experience relatively mild symptoms. Nevertheless it's wrong to treat it like seasonal winter flu in the UK about six hundred people die from winter flu each year which is a lot less than a tenth of one percent. We just don't know how fog covered nineteen will spread but for the moment the mortality rate looks much higher. I don't want to speculate about future outcomes because we can really only just watch events unfold. That doesn't mean we take action in our lives businesses. If you don't risk assessment and work out all the different angles at your business could be impacted from you know sort of studies that you will already have done for the climate crisis and for brexit planning for risk is all about the supply chain and the supply chain goes both ways. I of the sleep. Your supplies motor manufacturer. Jaguar has warned that a shortage of components from China could lead to layoffs and suspended production in the next few weeks. They are by no means alone. But it's not only manufacturers that are affected British Airways rival Ryanair of canceled. Hundreds of flights is bound for travel drops amid fears about the spread of the virus. The moment a very small number of locations worldwide are affected but some people are still nervous about booking holidays. It's likely that the cruise lines will lose. Business with ships quarantined recently and fatalities on the passengers. It's well known that a norovirus can run right through closed environment like a ship. Few will want to take that risk. We've covered. Nineteen reluctance to travel is already affecting international conferences. I'm planning to go to one in Paris in August but I certainly have booked yet. What are the implications for twenty six? This is billed as the most important cop yet. The one where countries are brought up to the mark to fulfill the Paris accord obligations. We can't afford it not go ahead. The long-term stakes much higher than the immediate corona viruses. Use COULD COP. Twenty six be the first major international online conference. Surely we have the technology scholley. It's a showcase that the web conferencing companies can't afford to miss safari kids. Go both ways so while your supplies maybe secure your market. Maybe depressed on the other hand. If you're a Jaguar dealer with customers but no 'cause you still have a problem if the situation develops to the point that we are discouraged from visiting public spaces. High street retailers will suffer significantly. It'll be particularly by at restaurants unless they can replace bookings takeaway orders but no restaurant. Food is suitable for them. Supermarkets have seen an upsurge in orders for delivery and that trend is more than lies continue. Supermarkets are already working together to ensure that a range of products will always be available to provide a balanced diet while accepting the number of product. Lines that they can offer is likely to be much reduced. He's only good news at all as well reduced. Flights mean reduced emissions satellite imagery from above Wuhan in China. The site of the original outbreak shows a dramatic reduction in nitric oxide in the atmosphere Jew. Of course to the Infos treasurer of many factors in the area which in turn gives global customers? Supply-chain problems could people get used to life which involves consuming less and avoiding foreign travel? Oh will we see a rebound once? All this is over.