Madurable: impasse in Venezuela


The Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is remarkably resilient. His Socialist Revolution is is in ruins the economy in tatters but as wheel is malnourished people are fleeing in droves but in spite of all and women as I owed the efforts of the opposition to restore democracy have so far failed even with help from America today we're announcing additional sanctions against the repressive regime targeting Medeiros inner circle and close advisors this week the United States and more than a dozen Latin American countries reese will meet at the United Nations to discuss how to increase pressure on the Maduro regime. What will be the trump administration's next move to help the Venezuelan people deposed dictator later our senior editor Michael Read recently spoke with President Donald Trump's pointman on Venezuela Elliot Abrams it turns out there might only be one way out of the crisis and Mr regime would have a role in the new Venezuela who in January why does the president of the National Assembly opposition leader proclaimed himself interim president on the grounds that the Maduro second term was illegitimate because it was the product of Fordham collection the United States immediately recognized as did number of other countries fifty five now most of the democracies around the world and the US backed up that recognition with sweeping sanctions against Venezuela's oil industry. There's something in the National Security Council in Washington was the sanctions would cause the armed forces his who sustain Maduro empower to flip on embrace a democratic transition but it hasn't happened well why not why haven't these wide ranging aging sanctions done any good well. That's a very good question. I mean they've certainly made things much. More difficult for the government is revenue. Streams are being being squeezed that of course means that the economy as a whole is suffering as well but it was already in a title mass now. Some people say say that sanctions in themselves do not topple determine dictators. There's no evidence that that has happened before but they do make make life more difficult obviously what if that have the sanctions had then it may well upping the sanctions that prompted them. Maduro regime to start talks with the opposition seemingly serious talks because they often wanted to play for time using talks these ones appear to be serious under the auspices of the Norwegian commitment and how those talks been going well there were several sessions and according to several sources at the end of July the government for the first time admitted the possibility of an early presidential election next year the beginning of Ogres the US administration slap further sanctions on the regime's finances and that caused the government to suspend the talks position position was not consulted about the research is taken by surprise. I think it's always will resume but they haven't done yet so essentially what interrupted that round of talks hawks was some sanctions on behalf of America that came out of the blue and certainly came out of the blue for the opposition. What do you think the point was. There was America intentionally trying to get the way the talks. I don't think the administration is necessarily united in its approach to Venezuela the sanctions were dream dot by the National Security Council. I think the State Department wasn't necessarily in favor of them. I spoke recently to Elliot Abrams the Special Representative for Venezuela issue of the State Department and he assured me that the sanctions want intended to torpedo the talks rather they were intended to strengthen the hand of the opposition at the negotiating table able by making a government things can only get worse unless there's a deal if and when it comes to that what are the obstacles that remain in those negotiations well there are several obstacles and at the top of the list clearly is the position of my daughter. Abrahams told me that as far as he's concerned the administration is is concerned the US administration you cannot have a free and fair election if murderer remains in power so he needs to step down but he could then. NBA candidate in the election provided the election is held under the auspices of a transition government. That's one obstacle another interest that the negotiators at the table May agree compromises which they then have to sell to the hardliners on their own side and that applies to the opposition as one of two but I think the other big point is that Maduro and his people were only agree to a transition in which they lose power if there is a genuine transitional administration of national unity in which they have clear guarantees which means they must talk a quarter of otherwise. They're not going to do it however about the situation. In the country that's for people who have experienced of these kinds of negotiations -tations incest and do you think the opposition would accept that outcome that there would be a government of national unity a transition period. I think a lot of people in the opposition would bright loud wanted especially those in exile who in a sense have less to lose but I think the question for them as well come on. What's your alternative back in January January. The trump administration flirted with the idea of military intervention without considering anything but all options are on the table repeatedly saying all all options were on the table all options but it's pretty clear that Donald trump is a war reverse president and nobody in Latin America. Almost almost nobody in America wants military intervention so I don't think it's a real threat. What's the other option military coup well. It hasn't happened and transitions tend to be more successful at bringing out stable democracies if they're the result of negotiation rather than ever cruise. That's a point that I didn't Abrams made to me while the third alternative is that Maduro survives wins stays there and I there will be a disaster for Venezuela and for America so I think however difficult a negotiation that involves a role for the cavs movement of Maduro however I'm possible that may be it's much less bad than the alternatives Michael. Thank you very much for joining us.

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