Democratic Presidential Field Filled With Uncertainty


Mike we'll share it's good to have you with us thanks for me so much has changed for the Democratic presidential field and I wonder how you see it you described it as filled with uncertainty that's right most of this year it's been relatively steady there hasn't been many changes in the polls you've had a set group of front runners and then just in the last three weeks you've had pretty titanic changes for one Elizabeth Warren has sort of broken out in the national and early state polling she's clearly had the most a successful campaign so far and you had a bunch of other candidates are turning to attacker to try and clip her wings as she rose number two Bernie Sanders who is always been pulling in the top three suffered a heart attack and his announced that he's going to slow down his campaigning when he returns to the trail it's not clear yet what effect have on his support among primary voters or whether he'll be able to perform the same way as he has in the past and things like debates which will have next Tuesday and then the third biggest thing is obviously impeachment and not just impeachment but impeachment that is focused on president trump's efforts to find mation from the Ukrainian president's on Joe Biden who has been leading the national polls for much of this year the Democratic nomination fight and spirit typically president trump serve incessant focus on the relationship Joe Biden son Hunter had with Ukrainians while he was vice president and whether he did anything improper and so that is really thrown the Biden campaign for a loop as well so you have you have this enormous turmoil right now we I don't know where it's going to sell out okay let's start with Joe I can and you talk about turmoil how much has the crane really controversy how much has it damage Joe Biden so to answer that question it's it's good to go back in time a little bit you know all year long Biden has been hit with controversy after controversy you know questions about his positions on busing in the nineteen seventies questions about his physical contact with voters and other people that events his his sort of stumbling performance on the campaign trail he's been attacked at debates by rival candidates it's and his polling has stayed remarkably consistent there hasn't been a lot that's been able to affect him so that's one thing to say at the outset the second is that a lot of what the president trump has been throwing it biden is not true and this is sort of universally acknowledged among the Democrat can is there is no evidence for instance that advice resident Biden was doing the bidding of his son or trying to protect his son when he went to Ukraine to push to fire a prosecutor when he was vice president that that was being made by a number of Western governments at the same time and despite with the prosecutor has said since then there's just no evidence to back up that underlying claim but there is a second Gary Issue here which Israel for Vice President Biden which is was it proper and appropriate for his son to be making money in a eastern European tree at a time when his father when he was in charge of US policy are the point person on US policy towards Ukraine and that's a question that is little more complicated and I think we'll continue to haunt vice president Biden will come up at the next debate and then the third issue to sort of take into account here is that Vice President Biden from the beginning has been running a primary campaign against Donald Trump the best message for him I am the person who can best take on Donald Trump so in a war hey there's a silver lining for him trump is clearly worried about his candidacy trump is clearly going after him and Biden has the ability at this point to serve step up and and say look he is scared I'm going to be able to beat him and to reinforce his central message of his campaign which is that he is the person best equipped to push trump out of office and so those three things mixed together will probably give us the answer right now the polls that we've seen haven't moved much worn his I need her rise that seems like a very real thing in recent polls but there's also not a lot of evidence that that Biden is collapsing he hasn't collapsed all year so I think we're in for for along along campaign and the question becomes has Joe Biden push back harden as right and and there have been real questions about that that there's obviously been some stress in his campaign and disagreement over that last week there was an odd moment where they sort of hate Salihi arranged a nighttime on the East Coast News event where he gave a speech lambasting president trump and it wasn't really notified advanced to the media clearly seemed to be pulled together at the last minute they'd begun to take out advertising to counter a lot of spending right now by trump on the air about Biden but but Biden is hamstrung in that regard because while president trump is raising you know one hundred million dollars plus a quarter he's raising closer took fourteen or fifteen million dollars a quarter so he just can't compete at the moment with the volume of what president trump might be able to throw at them and of course we all recall the two thousand sixteen campaign where Donald Trump focused on what he called Crooked Hillary is he it clearly to use that same kind of ammunition against Joe Biden even though there is nothing to indicate read that he in any way was attempting to help his the mere fact that his son said on that Ukrainian board is that enough for Donald Trump to use that as a and the first question will he do it yes absolutely he will do it. If Biden is the nominee in and we know very clearly from from president trump's behavior and candidates behavior that he is not constrained by facts in his political attack so so the fact that you know there is no evidence that he was doing official bidding for his son not stop him from saying that over and over and over again and that possibly sinking in with a good portion of the country I think it's worth saying that he would probably use a similar playbook against anybody who is the Democratic nominee he runs on character assassination of his opponents he's probably the most effective political messenger we've seen in recent memory at especially in negative campaigning that said there is some evidence in public polls and elsewhere or that the American people are kind of used to this behavior by president trump that they are skeptical of whether he tells the truth skeptical of whether he's behaving appropriately pose this week showing majority of the country supports impeachment proceedings against him if those polls hold up may indicate that in a general election race you know the the two thousand sixteen playbook trump used to such great effect isn't as effective this time are now let move on to Bernie Sanders. There was reluctance on the part of his campaign to even call what he variance a heart attack but then finally they did come out and say he had a heart attack at now is is taking some rest the fact of the matter is he is what seventy nine years old seventy eight years old seventy eight years old so is this experience out there in the public going to make people think more than ice about Bernie Sanders I think the question will be answered by his performance and and you're right initially the campaign was very cagey about what had happened they said he received a stent it had chest pains but he stayed in the hospital for several days which was unusual for someone who had a stent than they admitted he had a heart attack they still I'll have not described how much damage there was to heart and that's an important fact if you know you having a heart attack means there's damage to your heart muscle but you can have very little image and be able to recover quite well or you could have much more serious damage which would really slow you down and we just don't know how well he's doing we know he's been taking occasional six in Burlington and and he's been able to speak to reporters but but I think the coming weeks after the next debate will make clear whether he can recover from this and I think you already before this happened sanders was in a position where he was the most accomplished fundraiser in the field who's raising more money they than anyone else he had an enormous grassroots support but he also had diminishing national polls over the course of this year both in early states it's and in

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