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Warren's big healthcare plan relies on big assumptions

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Elizabeth Warren today answered some big questions about how she would implement Medicare for all if she's elected president rivals and reporters have been pressing worn for details on how she would find a government run health insurance program that covered every American well NPR's Daniel Kurtz lavine has been going through warns you plan and joins us now with the details he Danielle Ailsa all right let's start with the big question here how much does warn say this plan would cost in total fifty two trillion dollars yeah yeah over the over the span of ten years now I want to be clear that is total that is not all new funding and we will get to the details on that in a minute here now she is saying twenty point five trillion dollars over ten years again would be a new federal funding so new revenue the government asked to bring in to put some perspective around this by one estimate that would be a nearly fifty percent increase in federal revenues over the next year right you say wow and that's a lot of money and it gets at just a sweeping program this would be a total overhaul that said the whole time words been stressing that middle class families would pay less than they do now that overall the country would save on healthcare how could that possibly happen given that there's this huge price tag right so let's go back to that initial number that fifty two trillion that is an estimate from a think tank called the urban institute for how much money will be spent in the entire American health care system over the next ten years so employers consumers on private coverage by the federal government by state governments everybody under Warren's planned she thinks that cost would stay roughly the same while ensuring everybody so she says this is a bargain now some of the she says it's just money shifting around for instance employers are currently estimated to pay about nine trillion dollars over toward health care over the next ten years Warren's plan says they would pay nearly all of that instead of to private insurers and just to the government in the form of a tax now opponents already coming out against this Joe Biden for example saying this tax will just end up being passed on to middle class workers so this is going to be a point of contention I would bet and and even with that that still leaves what trillions more to fill in here right warns been confronted about this over and over this question will this raise middle class taxes how has she answered that so this plan says that there won't be any new taxes on middle class Americans rather she leans a lot on new taxes on people who have more than a billion dollars in well so even higher wealth taxes than she has proposed in the past in addition to that new taxes on large core rations now in fact she's touting that many middle class Americans will have more take home pay because they won't be handing that money over in terms in in the form of freemen right however that additional take home pay will now be taxable so some revenue will come from some middle class America so does the math actually work out the way Warren is claiming it works out okay so this is a detailed plan from a woman who is known for detailed plans sure so yeah the numbers add up but the assumptions underlying these numbers are the things that we are going to be picking apart that experts will be for the coming weeks for example this plan would pay doctors what Medicare currently pays doctors with a hospital's a little more than that now what's important here is that is far less than private insurers generally pay those places so there is a big question as to how doctors and hospitals would whether this plan there are also questions about other taxes now since she introduced the idea of a wealth tax there been big questions like how do you enforce that how do you assess a person's wealth accurately how easy would it be to evade now those are real questions that will continue and almost a preamp that she has said that tighter tax enforcement is gonna be a big part of how she wants to bring in more revenues one other thing here is just that this plan is very complex and involves potentially immigration reform it involves some cuts to defense spending so there are a lot of assumptions here a lot of moving parts and how long would warn allow for a transition into Medicare for all from what we have now that is a great question this would be a huge transition she has said her transition plan will be coming in the coming weeks but that transition is really where some of these tough choices some of the tough things could happen to get us to Medicare

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