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Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Now four days until the United Kingdom goes to vote in the second general election in two years. Can you hear the fatigue in my voice. The opinion polls which ought to be taken with very generous pinch of salt suggest. The Conservative Party led by. Boris Johnson stands to be elected. Well one of those sprinkling salt. Is Vince Samakuva his. UK's correspondent fear news following every twist and turn. And if I sound fatigued Vincent you must be exhausted. It's been a long campaign going around the country. I mean this campaign started in August. It's been quite strange for UK election which normally short five week one but this effectively began in August. And it's yeah are. There is definitely a sense of weariness around the country and we all three days before he goes to the elections on Thursday and just looking at the headlines this this morning and the and the headlines over the weekend it seems to be still such a messy scene. There's no one great winner. I mean many suggestion that the Conservatives services are ahead in the opinion polls but the unpredictability of this I think is perhaps what is confusing and exhausting so many people. Yeah it is and I think that's going to be some really interesting factors in play coming up so one thing which any partial tally. The big thing is the weather so looking ahead of the weather here in London Thursday. It's wet all all day but it isn't that cold. The cold is the thing that many parties were worried about because who are the most reliable bank voters anywhere in the world the elderly and the colder it is and the more difficult it is for them to vote the more the less likely arts turn out one caveat on that is that they normally they have their own vehicles so they can drive themselves to the polls young people as well often deterred by whether and if it's very wet and they've got to get public transport they might not bother and I think something that I'm noticing around the country is. I think we might have a slightly lower turnout and there is a sense of fatigue and inevitability creeping in about Boris Johnson. Getting a majority. Ah I mean you said it's going to be hold. I've taken the liberty of looking up the weather forecast while you were saying that I mean if you're in hull which is in the northeast of England. It's going to be raining and four all day. I mean that's that's it's an indoor play day for me. As far as I can gather could be worse. I mean thinking about recent winters you dave. We could be a lot worse but yeah it. It isn't it isn't going to be pleasant and I think that's going to have a really interesting impacts on the get out the vote campaign get out the vote but also who is likely to. which way is that lately says suspending voices if you're going to get The weather actually having an impact on on the way that people whether people go out and who they decide to vote for it it definitely is a test of how well the policies ground games are running running because when you work in these parties a big thing they do is when they going door to door they own just asking you how you're voting. They're often asking how you get into the polls and they will do community bus round so if they go down the street and they find that Ethel number sixty five and Tommy number sixty four want to go and vote. But they don't don't have their own vehicle transport they will sort out within the local association that the bus will go down that street to certain time pick up all those people take them to the polls and drop them back. So it's an interesting thing is a massive logistical operation to get people out. That's the logistical side. Let's turn onto the political side. What is the state of play with three days to go? So the Tories have they firm and solid ten point lead in the national polls which would give them a majority between forty to fifty seats if they are to be believed. That is the largest since is Margaret Thatcher in one thousand nine hundred seven one caveat to that is the first election referendum this election debate on a couple of weeks ago Borsch Johnson won by fifty fifty one percent to forty nine percent on Fridays. Pretty Dire Debate those down in maidstone. The Paula came out of that said the Washington won by fifty two percent and Jeremy Corbyn won by forty eight percent. This is a country which is split right down the middle as with the same figures for the brexit referendum. The problem is that U K calculation relation of seats is so difficult because of our first-past-the-post-system every seat has different dynamics working in it. Now the problem for the Tories is that they might worry that their vote is complacent and they might not turn out and deliver that majority that they're being predicted by intention because people think well it sorted and there is still the room for major gas. Now Boris Johnson is as we speak in grimsby at a fish market. He is doing tour of the so-called red wool so he is hitting labor. ABC's in the Midlands in Yorkshire in the Northeast in North Wales and the north west of the next three days in an absolute blitz. Because he thinks now because because the brexit party stepped down which I think is the defining moment of this general election in the three hundred and seventeen seats to theresa may one in two thousand seventeen. They are now taking most of those as banked and they're taking the fight out to labor even in Scotland where look like at the beginning of the election the SNP could take almost all the seats but one one they are now looking at holding on at about eight supports Johnson citing signs. Take the fights to the Labor Party and Jeremy Corbyn on the other side is going to be doing a campaign like the last one where he's trying to have big rallies all up and down the country but really. I mean Jeremy Corbyn has not broken through in this general election and the people. I'm speaking to the past couple of weeks. Weeks Germany Corbin's brand was was kind of very is kind of selective taste in twenty seventeen. It didn't win the sensor Eh but it pulled in people from around the left who previously haven't voted Labour because it wasn't left enough for them and then he got Jerry Evans brand in the past two years has been severely. I mean this issue of antisemitism has not gone away his handling of it. This election has been poor even last week. You know when he was on this morning With Julianne with Juliette. TV TV. He just he's not he's getting angry about it. And that's not helping and the public obsolete confused and baffled by his brexit position the accusations that emerged over the weekend that the the way that the media has actually handcuffed handled this campaign has not been ideal given the fact that before the election. Everybody said that party politics no longer really work in the way that they used to that. Everybody somebody who's now not Labour or conservative Liberal Democrat but they were remain or leave but the way that the election coverage has been played out has reverted to the type and you get the other party such as Liberal Democrats the Greens and Indeed Brexit party being marginalized although some might suggest that the Brexit potties and a very nice the amount of coverage this this season. What would you say to that? I mean. It's very tricky. I mean the media navel-gazing at itself Alpha's how is covering the election. The problem is that in twenty ten because we haven't ever had TV debates for in this country and they've been talked about for decades. The three remained broadcast this guy that we've seen ICN worked solidly together in Lockstep to secure the debates and it was. You can't sign up for one you have to sign up for all three and that is where Nick Clegg. The Liberal Democrat got his big break in in terms of publicity but didn't translate into any more seats in fact lost two seats because of the way our system system works now in every election since then the cool after that was that there should be some kind of independent authority like the electoral commission which determines the structure Russia and the setting and the dates of each of those debates. That hasn't worked. It's basically now being the parties have played the broadcasters off each other and I think they in this election action you know it's really descended chaos. Sky Didn't even get a debates and very quietly backed away from it is TV and the BBC's got their first ever to lead head to head debate. Who will be the prime minister? And then there's been a bit of a smorgasbord of other debates and it. has you know an and politicians say that it takes. It's the kind of the prep work for it. It can take the steam out of the campaigning and it's not a traditional campaign the alternative that is actually more people. Get to see what you're about. And if you're just popping about each constituency constituency but the real question is you know apart from the normal media which you know kind of will sort itself out and there'll be lots of picking out the thing that is still going under the radar is the social media side. We do not you do. There hasn't used in past elections in two thousand fifteen seventeen you'd get an op note. That said our our new Election Billboard will be unveiled. Come and see on a bus and you'd get a random member cabinet standing in front of it pulling a curtain them but that isn't happening anymore and so on on the dry hair. I saw the first few billboards on electronic billboards from the conservatives who gonNA spend basically big in this final week absolutely blitz. And every time I went on youtube the weekend the pre roll advert was one from the Conservatives. The danger in this election and this kind of new age is we. Don't get to see anymore anymore. What everyone else does you? And I are being targeted by different adverts to what the conservative done. And it's very much the vote leave playbook the campaign campaign two thousand sixteen that Dominic Cummings masterminded is they have in the in the in the long campaign tested out different adds to see what get the most reaction and then in the final few days whatever has done and best of the thousands that they were putting out of different variations of adverts mycotoxin whatever's done best then becomes the big national. One of the next three days are going to be the moment when we see how the campaigns are really pushed then yeah it will be. It will be the kind of headline messages from Boston so I think just WanNa pick out what he said yesterday. Today on on Sky News into this is this could be a line from two thousand sixteen and this is the vote leave playbook he was saying we want to bed down in migration particularly unskilled work is You've seen a large number of people coming from the whole of the EU. Five hundred eighty million population trying to dredge up scary figure of all these people could suddenly rock up at David Tomorrow and saying in this line I was really struck. Me As pretty Pretty appalling really is that too long. y-y-you migrants have treated the UK. As their own country Vincent mckinney. Thank you very much indeed for joining us on monocle. Twenty