Who Will Win The Latino Vote

In The Thick
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The thick. This is a podcast about politics race and culture in the elections and all that kind of stuff from. Perspective I might Hosa. Joining us from Park City Utah. Nice does a first time. We've ever had somebody from Park City. UTAH. Is Mi Mike Madrid. He's CO founder of a little organization called. Thank. The Lincoln Project and he's a part, the public relations firm grassroots lab. Hey, Mike. Welcome to the show. So glad to finally be with you guys have been fan for a long time to be with you. Awesome. great-great-great joining us from New York City Lee healed by the she ceo and Co founder of the big data analytics firm seen plus and culture. Intel. Welcome. Really thank you so much. Super excited to be here with your friend Yes okay. So believe it or not It's only one week. Oh. My God one week to the election according to analysis by the more than fifty eight million people have already cast their ballots surpassing all male in early votes cast in the twenty sixteen election. A number of states Georgia and Texas have seen historic early voting turnout. I mean Georgia and Texas, and the both of you Mike in Lilly you've been following the data and the trends when it comes to support for either candidate so we're going to dig into yes the Latino and Latina vote and we've talked about how well they're thirty two million projected eligible Latino voters in this cycle. So that is the second largest voting. Indian tire United States it's likely that this election is going to come down to a handful of key states including Florida surprise and we know right I mean what happens with Florida is going to be determined by Latino and Latina voters correct three point one million eligible voters according to Pew. Research Center there are a number of motivators this time around from the coronavirus pandemic which has really taken a toll on dinos and Latina's to yes the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barrett and as a disclaimer. So we are recording on Monday afternoon and the final confirmation vote of Barrett is expected to take place on Monday night just saying democracy question Mark Mike, what are you seeing about this Latino vote? And give us your sense like we're all on pins and needles. What's your top line? Is it going to be able to swing these key swing voter states towards Biden Or, will it be towards trump So let's talk about three states specifically and I'll give you kind of what we're looking out where we're trying to move numbers, and maybe some of the irony of the whole situation. There are, of course, a lot of voters now in states like Pennsylvania North Carolina but just mathematically where the communities really going to be determinative, it's going to be flooded out like you mentioned taxes in Arizona. Let me start with Florida because it is such Florida. Florida right Kinda got a look. We all know what that means and what it doesn't mean. Yeah. So trump's spat very early on Miami Dade was one of the counties that he spent most heavily in through the summer. He was up really big columbine the socialist trying to consolidate the Cuban vote multi generational, right? We all know that are older Cuban brothers and sisters have this real anticommunist sentiment anti-castro but the younger you get your that tends to Wayne and future generations and. Most of that was splitting off most Cubans under forty are actually Democrats as a plurality. So the Republican source kind of weight off, but the socialism stuff was working right can't wasn't working overwhelmingly, but it was working enough. Yes. Mike is that because maybe it was been his winnings, there are some of that's what I'm saying. Yeah absolutely. There's this kind of socialist is like the Big Buzzword big it's a big thing with these voter segments but. We gotTA KEEP IT in perspective. It's not like he was overwhelming. It was over performing with where you know trump wasn't twenty-six. They were moving votes early we all know Latinos. Late deciders we're hearing some of this stuff going y'all kit account makes sense. Yeah but look, this is largely corrected already we went in his Lincoln Project I'm not saying we went in alone we went in with a number of Latino organizations we went with North repack Chuck Rochelle Rip Bernie's group. We did you know me me Neither do I ask when it is a coalition and said, Hey, look you guys take the portrait. Daniels. You guys take the Central Americans the few Donald's out of there in Florida we're going to go in after the Cuba to the Venezuelan. We'll go hardcore after after the right you're going after the mother lode, you're like we're taking the colonial. Exactly, right you're doing Lincoln project style. We went with some really hard hitting ads gonNA peel off this vote. So you have seen the numbers come back to Earth a little bit I'm not going to suggest that there isn't a little bit more trump genus than we would like we get to kind of wise that's happening but one of the really Florida things about Florida this year is that trump the republican is over performing with Latinos. Enough to put this in title contention that we would like right and ironically, Biden is picking up more of a Republican sixty five and. Older senior citizen vote, which is a Republican base vote than his historical. So they're each eating into each other's constituencies and the question I think yeah. For flooded is going to be who holds onto each other's constituency the longest to push him over the line.

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