Monetary & Political Update

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What is your opinion of like all of the latest sort of academic econometrics models? You know the Alan Greenspan productivity norm type models. What do they do for us like during this time? Because if you really just look at how these major swings in the economy happen, they happen. You know every ten years or five ten years. Everybody always says they're completely unexpected. We didn't know enough. We didn't prepare enough. We should do more. We should tweak our models more and in the same thing happens the next five to ten years so. What in your opinion is the point of All of these models and a of metric stuff that economists dude did it help us during this crisis? Will it ever help us? No, I don't think it. Help US I think. Perhaps there they're just. A way to make the economist few more comfortable, regarding the uncertainty of the future on. Maybe they'll feel more at ease regarding their inability to understand what is going on in the economy, I mean if you look at the forecast by the Federal Reserve System and the feds they employ if I'm not mistaken over five hundred economists and mostly PhD's and have they predicted the what happened in two, thousand eight. No, they did not predict that. Did they predict what happened now? No, of course not and. The situation we have. Currently is not only a matter of economic savvy business cycle swings of the business activity. Of course we do have the pandemic. This has had a major. Force in the crisis at least as the main trigger for the crisis, but why? Why always tried to pinpoint is that the economy was already fragile, so you could see from a whole list of financial indicators. Economic Indicators. The American economy is the global economy was not on a sound footing, so the fragility was. There you could see anything that could be. Trigger might have the effect of precipitating an economic crisis that could in turn lead to a financial crisis. Ex exactly as has happened in the last three to four months so I don't think economic models can do any kind of job in predicting what's going to happen? Economists try to. To Understand reality to understand how the world works, and through this econometric models, which some of them are very sophisticated, they think. By doing this. Different models with a lot of different variables they can have a more sophisticated model that that can provide them with more knowledge, regarding the future, but it just can't. It's impossible to model reality. It's impossible to model the world, and it's impossible to predict what's going to happen, but you can at least assess the the underlying state of the economy of markets, and this is something that I think. Mostly Austrian it tastes have done pretty nicely over the last twenty thirty or forty

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