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Q2-2020 Delivery & Production Estimates (06.30.20)


Everybody, round hour here on the last day of Tesla's second quarter and today we will be going through my forecast for Tesla's production and delivery numbers for the quarter before we get into the numbers, though Tesla stock on the day to day finish up about seven percent to one thousand seventy nine dollars and eighty one cents and closed with a market capitalisation above two hundred billion dollars. This is an all time high close for Tesla also. Also notable because tesla past the market cap of Exxon Mobil today that is notable, not only because it's an oil and gas company, but Exxon. Mobil has at times been the most valuable company in the world's. This is a real sign of a new era as far as the up seven percent on the day I think that's mostly reaction and the markets starting to understand the significance of what we talked about yesterday. email saying that. That tussle was close to break even for the quarter. One of the implications of that for the market is higher delivery expectations, but of course we've already had relatively high expectations to the market back in May I. Wait out a forecast for about eight thousand deliveries for Q. Two, so given that tussles profitable on that level of deliveries and Q. One. Flirting with profitability shouldn't be too much of a surprise to us today, though as the. The quarter comes to a close I. AM raising my forecast before we get into the numbers I want to quickly look at when we should be expecting. The delivery and production report from Tesla based on past releases Tesla began doing these within three days of quarter and back in early twenty fifteen after q one hundred fifteen, so we had twenty one quarterly releases now eleven of them have been within two days of the end of. Of Quarter, nine of them within three days, and then one time at Beckon Twenty sixteen. It took four days, and that was over a weekend so April Fourth Twenty Sixteen win. Those numbers were released. That was a Monday historically. Then it's about fifty fifty on whether it's the second or the third day slight edge to the second day. If we look at historical Q2, releases, three out of five of those have been on, July second went. went the other two coming on July third, so sixty percent of Q2's happened on the second, and then if we also consider recently bias, we look at just the last eight quarters. Six of the last eight quarters have happened on the second day with only two on the third day, so it's definitely more likely that the numbers this time will come out on the second rather than the third and again the market is closed on Friday. Friday the third, so I think Tesla if the numbers are good, would like to get them out before market open on Thursday something i WanNa do, but haven't had time for yet is add the time of day that the numbers released, so we have a better understanding of the odds of pre-market or aftermarket. If anybody wants to help me with, let me know if not I'll probably look into that tomorrow. Are the only other thing I'll? I'll say here before we get into the numbers. This is not investment advice. This is just my own forecast that I'm walking people through. Everybody should do their own analysis, et Cetera and I know people are excited to see my numbers, because I was really close in key one, but something that is forgotten about a lot is that I emphasized that there were a lot of unknowns for that quarter. That also applies to this quarter. Quarter. We're doing our best. The information that is available, but we do not have all the information and past performance is no guarantee of future results are at so that being said. Let's get into the numbers. Apologies for the audio listeners. This is pretty number heavy, so I would encourage watching the video which I'll put a link to in the show notes, and as a reminder we will talk about deliveries, but this table is built on. On production that is my focus because I think Tesla as a whole is generally more production constrained than demand constraint. The format that we're working with here is the same that I walked through in May so on the left. We have different time ranges. Those are important because we had significant periods of time of shutdown for both Fremont, an Shanghai or couple of quarters so periods of time for the rose, and then for the columns across. Across the top I have the factories broken up individually. The left section is total production. The Middle Section is total production per calendar week, and then the right section is per calendar day and again those rates are critical for us to focus on because of the downtime blast piece of formatting. Is the color coding so anything? Gray represents an actual or something that is very close to an actual based on information. Tesla has released the orange. Orange mostly relates to gigafactory Shanghai and the reports that we've had from China generally from the China Passenger Car Association on production from gigafactory Shanghai so far it looks like we can have high confidence in those numbers, and then in blue, those are numbers that we can have high confidence in based on at the combination of grey and orange numbers, but not something we can be certain about, and then forecasts are in yellow. Let's start. Start with gigafactory Shanghai, because it's a bit more straightforward since we do have that reporting out of China in April. Tessa reportedly produced eleven thousand two hundred model threes out, of Shanghai, so that's twenty six hundred per week. I was previously forecasting them to do about three thousand per week, and may extracting the shutdown period of time from may first to May ninth. It looks like actually beat that significantly, so my previous forecast was about ninety. Ninety five hundred in May. It looks like tussle produce about eleven thousand, five, hundred, two, thousand above my forecast, and about six hundred fifty per week more than what had estimated previously that increased weekly production rate affects my forecast for June as well. Previously, I had been forecasting right below thirty four hundred per week. That doesn't make much sense of Tusla hardy clips that in May, so I brought my June forecast up to about thirty nine. Nine hundred per week or about sixteen, thousand five hundred for the month of June, I'm at thirty, nine hundred per week for June because we've heard that Tesla has an installed capacity of about four thousand I'm

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