What makes Melbourne's outbreak hot or not?



So melvin is still kind of grappling with a bit of a hotel quarantine outbreak. Hassan we've seen these holiday inn. Classic continued to grow some close contacts have tested positive to covid. There's been exposure sites are added added to the list. This rapidly growing list and while this is happening people in melbourne. Obviously watching it really closely but so people in other states. Because we've seen that. When an outbreak occurs in recent months people wanna act really quickly states when actually quickly cape the spread from spreading as much as possible and so perhaps bought is going to be throwing up again or they might be increased restrictions in melbourne. And sorry can we talk about what it takes for somewhere to be declared hotspot what goes into that decision. It's a really interesting question and clearly. It's something that we haven't clarified. Throughout the course of the pandemic in the last twelve months it's been very confusing and difficult for people to work out when we should declare hotspot if we go back to first principles the key issue here when we declare hotspot is that we're making the coal the visit an increased risk of someone being infected in a particular area. And that if they travel to another area they're going to put that area at risk so the interesting thing the maze of last twelve. It's been real indicated the people's understanding or willingness to tolerate uncertain t and the willingness to tolerate risk. And we've seen how that has been different between the states and we've also seen that evolve even within states where a state would have pulled the trigger on a particular intervention six months ago. But now they're being a little bit more nuanced in response to these the situation so we constantly learning and it's going to be an interesting thing to say what happens this time around the toll months into this pandemic in australia. It seems like the cases coming through now in sort of drips and drabs yesterday. The chief medical officer professor paul. Kelly said that he was absolutely confident. That the infection was a single event going back to the holiday inn hotel. They'll close context though are starting to test positive. Is that something you're expecting to happen or were you hoping that it could just be contained to the immediate staff and residents of the holiday inn. Look i think you always hope that it can be contains at that level but always you always have to have the expectation that it's going to spread beyond that initial chain of transmission and that is why we worked so hard to identify contexts and quarantine them and we identify context context. So we're we're working really hard to put a ring fence around the virus and to halt any chains of transmission so in some ways cases that have been identified. Today have its. Its positive that they were predicted. And that they were in quarantine and so really. It's going to be the next few days that are crucial for us to be able to identify whether we're ahead of the virus or we have to play a little bit more touch

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