Global cases falling. Is it the vaccines or something else?



And around the world with starting to see cases full and they've been falling for a couple of weeks. Now which is great news outside of australia out. A wonderful little bubble here. The pandemic's obviously Causing a lot of havoc overseas. And so the question is norman. Is this just the tail end of a pandemic curve that we would have expected anyway or are we starting to say the vaccine at work. Now the answer is nobody can be very sure. But what i can say. Is that in people. Want to go back in the health. Report podcast. I interviewed chris. Murray of the institute of health metrics evaluation university of washington seattle and they're they're amongst the best models internationally of the pandemic and i think it was in november. He predicted that you would see. At the end of january beginning of february. They predicted that the pandemic would fall off. Are we mentioned this. On corona cast as well didn't we at the beginning of the year. Yes yes and the and he was saying that was independent of vaccine so in other words they weren't factoring in the vaccine at that point. Vaccines were really just getting going at that point and it was hard to know how how is going to evolve. And you where you were gonna get maximum penetration of vaccine so it was early days in the vaccination strategy so they didn't really factor it in his feeling. Was i think from memory that this is partly seasonal. The maximum effect winter had been reached. Even though there's obviously a lot of cold weather to go and that he felt that was the reason. And you have to assume that vaccination may well be starting to have any faked remember cases around the world. Very because usually it's somebody who symptomatic who's going to have a test and that becomes a case of covid nineteen but it's mixed in recent cases in there as well so it's the the definitions vary from country to country but nonetheless you would expect the vaccine to reduce the number of people. Coming forward for testing was symptomatic disease. This probably would have happened anyway without vaccination and it's going to accelerate presumably with it. Yeah i mean we've had millions and millions of vaccines all that now in the data that we were talking about a few weeks ago out of israel seem to indicate that we did a few weeks. People had a fairly good protection from the virus off the vaccination and so yeah the world health organization the night before last said that sixteen percent decline compared to the previous week intensive case numbers. And also very heartening li a ten percent decline in the death right from the previous week as well a lag obviously to the deaf rate or the number of deaths and i think that what we still don't have a fix on is what the covid pandemic is doing in low income countries. And we just need to remember that within low income countries this is not just a an ethical and humanitarian issue. This is a selfish issue for us as well. That new variance can emerge from low-income countries. If the pandemic is still running relatively unchecked in those countries. And if that's the case and you've got the fall is where they're doing more you're seeing is more. They're doing most testing. We don't have full visibility in what's going on in low income countries and the pandemic continues and the effect of vaccines is not kicking in. Because they're not vaccinating then you've still got the virus circulating with all the mutants that are being thrown off and those can spread and if we want control this pandemic and stop new variants emerging. We've got to immunize low-income countries. With a very high degree of probability. It's not just for their sake. It's for our six two. Yeah absolutely the virus. Can't mutate on. Its iron at cop mutai if it's sitting on a bench top boy. It can only mutate when it's in your body replicating and the more people it's replicating in the more opportunities. it has to mutai. That's right and most of these mutations will be harmless mutations like the one we were one we were talking about all last year but now the risk is that the mutants that the the the vars throwing off remember the virus does not have a brain. So it's not intentionally doing. This is throwing off mutants and four. The pressure of evolution is directing some mutants to survive. Where others couldn't your social distancing you'll get mutants that are surviving which can get around social distancing which means they're more contagious like the u k variant and as we vaccinate so you've mutants that are resistant to the vaccine will start to preferentially survive. So we just gotta get immunization out as quickly as possible

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