Updating The Numbers with eMarketer Co-Founder Geoff Ramsey

AdExchanger Talks


Am so pleased to have as my guest. Jeff ramsey the co founder of emarketer and chief evangelist for insider intelligence. Jeff is a veteran of the attic. She'd your stage and we are going to talk on this podcast about the numbers. You should be paying attention to in the year head and the stories behind those numbers but before we get into jets predictions for the rest of twenty twenty one. I wanted to talk about twenty twenty. We saw so much change because of the pandemic and i'm sure that wreaked havoc on your predictions. Jeff well Yeah twenty. Twenty is year a lot of people would like to forget but we can go back and revisit that certainly in a busy year for our forecasters are forecasters busy themselves with excel spreadsheets Calibrating and then recalibrating numbers at a dizzying pace based on new information. That's coming in and certainly during last year we saw a lot of changes particularly with the consumer and So then ensued a ton of revisions to our projections that would normally last for you know at least eight nine ten twelve fourteen months You know we we were. We were spinning our wheels so fast. It's a wonder we didn't come off the tracks Biggest places where you had to revise those numbers Assure i think the biggest area without doubt was the area of e-commerce and we're gonna get into that in a little bit but if if anybody in the audience is thinking to themselves e commerce you think about about that. We'll think about your activity over the last year. And if you haven't done more door dash or grubhub or i'm not going to the store and never mind that. There's you know a massive winter storm that we're now seeing people are jew. Were just afraid to go to malls all this data and statistics were talking about you. Know people were a lot of most people. Were taking this seriously and mask or not. It was more comfortable. Felt more safe to order from home Whether it be on your desktop laptop or your mobile device so i would say the biggest set of numbers are the biggest changes in our set of numbers were in the e commerce space space and where we netted out to give a kind of a tip of the hat to twenty twenty is ecommerce sales grew by something like thirty two percent in twenty twenty versus twenty nine thousand nine due to the lockdown measures in the fact that we are all self isolated and just to put that into perspective If you look at non ecommerce sales that's that's the that's the the that's like the rhinoceros compared to the flea of ecommerce right but if you look at total retail says we're talking somewhere in the order of almost six trillion dollars right if you look at ninety commerce sales. They slipped by negative Three point two percent in two thousand and twenty. They might grow again predicting grogan this year but it actually slipped by over three percent and yet total commerce. Total retail sales grew why because of e-commerce growing a significant thirty two percent. So we some people said that we have Grown e commerce On original predictions something. We've advanced something like two or three years ahead of where we would normally be an and the trains left attracts. The growth rate is gonna go way way down. It's going to continue to grow some bets. That's the biggest change that we've seen. Yes i can. I can validate that anecdotally. In terms of how much ivan purchasing on amazon as well is kind of a lot of new e commerce stores. I was trying out to get you know farm to table food delivery and that kind of thing personally but that that's where my taste lies and you know you're making me hungry. Zony sales are seeing so many sales are moving to online. It makes me wonder you know one. What does that mean for all these digital advertising companies that kind of our that point right before you hit by And as well as how much time people must be spending online consumers platforms before they go on to you now. Consumed their dinner via door dash. Sir you know what that's a really good place it to really dig into because you know if i were say a a number two area where forecasters had to continually busied themselves. With reaching recalibrating. Numbers was in the area of time spent so let me just puts in perspective on that because i think most of us realize having or locked in an apartment or a house we start to go a little bit stir crazy. So what do we look to. We looked to digital activities to you know suck up our time and so a couple of things with these since cove it. Americans have increased the time that they spend with all media cross online and offline by about an hour and five minutes a day. So it's over thirteen hours a day. We're spending with media now. I do need to put a little caveat there thirteen hours you might be thinking. Wow that's a lot of time. And that's that's half the twenty four hours you know that are in a day. But it includes double-counting for multitasking. 'cause i don't think there's any of us on the planet that don't were we're watching. Tv have another device in our hand. We're doing something else right. And because we never know in the second or nanoseconds time where attention is fleeting from one. St the other way that attention actually lies. We have to double count that figure. So if you're spending an hour watching tv and you're on your mobile phone that whole time we have to double count That that our so it becomes two hours if that makes any sense so we're spending an extra hour a day and almost all of that Ghosts to digital so just to give some perspective before cove it we were spending. This is pretty pretty significant amount. We're spending about half a little over half of our day. Six hours and forty nine minutes a day Doing digital stuff alive. It was mobile. was streaming but then we went from six hours forty nine minutes in two thousand nineteen the pandemic hits and we go up by a an hour and a minute to seven hours and fifty minutes a day with digital And we think that digital time is going to continue to increase by twenty twenty two. We'll be spending eight hours a day with digital which was a little frightening for maybe some parents as they think of their kids. Because this is on average and if you think of kids and teens and it's probably way more than eight hours day so as we net out digital time now counts for roughly sixty percent of adults a total daily time spent with media and another area within within digital of course streaming Were all streaming more and when you think of time spent with streaming whether you thinking connected. Tv's court cutting or cord nevers. That's my favorite. Group is like college students who never will never have paid for a traditional pay. Tv subscription. why would they win. Their parents are basically donating their netflix account to their kids And then you got. Ot subscription activities with netflix amazon prime. And so on so. These numbers really shot way past our original pre covid estimates and so where we netted out. Was it in twenty. Twenty one time spent with digital video will have risen by thirty three minutes or over half an hour per day and so now we're spinning If we're looking at digital video time said about two hours and nineteen minutes And that's up from an hour and forty six minutes and twenty nine thousand nine but just a quick reality check. And then i'll let you jump in here. Reality check is that you might be thinking with all this streaming and so on that people are spending on average more time with digital video than they are with linear tv. But that's not quite yet. The case are estimated that traditional. Tv whether you're watching broadcasts abc cbs. Or you're watching a cable. Channel or direct access is is sixty percent of the time we spend with. A video is with traditional tv

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