Is $50,000 BTC the Beginning of a Bitcoin Supercycle?
What's going on guys. It is tuesday february sixteenth. And today we are talking about. You know it fifty thousand dollar bitcoin and specifically whether it's shows that we are in a bitcoin super cycle so i the news after a week or so of threatening the rubicon was breached this morning between seven forty five and eight am eastern time. Bitcoin punched up above fifty thousand. Now it immediately met cell wall and had a six hundred dollar candle down in is at the time of recording closer to forty nine thousand but to me that technical response is far less significant than these psychological barrier of a fifty thousand dollar being breached so today's special early breakdown is all about that. I reached out to followers this morning. Asking what topics you all thought were important for a fifty k. Show i also popped into a couple of different clubhouse chats to see what people were focused on and overwhelmingly across both of those mediums. The thing that people wanted to talk about is whether this is another indicator that we're in a bitcoin super cycle. I'm going to discuss this. It's going to be the main focus of the show. What the idea of a super cycle is where it came from what it might mean and some different ways to look at it but first let's blast through a few of the other topics folks wanted to disgust. Let's try to start with something that if not negative is sort of dismissive to be honest. It's kind of hard to find those bitcoin stomping face but here we are peter. Brant tweeted fifty. Thousand is a nice round number. That means absolutely nothing. Technically trying to sound smart just sound smart helps to define dumbness now. Let's contextualized. Peter is speaking to a trading audience and that trader audience are not supposed to in their own estimation get emotionally invested in an asset or let narrative shape. What they do. So let's give peter the benefit of the doubt and assume that that's who he's talking to however if he is truly arguing that technicals are all that matter about an asset. The easy rejoinder is that markets are by their very definition a constant give and take between narratives and technicals and frankly narratives tend to reshape the bounds that frame the upside and downside potential of those technical indicators either way for the sake of completeness i wanted to include something sort of negative but i think we can move on next. Let's discuss michael sailor. Just doing michael sailor things about five minutes before fifty thousand was breached. Sailor dropped a new press release from micro strategy long story. Short micro strategy is offering another six hundred million in debt and all the words of the press. Release our legalese. Except for this. Little line micro strategy intends to use the net proceeds from the sale of the notes to acquire additional bitcoins. Pomp summed it up perfectly when he tweeted. Michael sailor is carrying out one of the highest conviction investment thesis we've ever seen in public markets. Incredible to watch okay next. People are wondering how this happened. Or why will. I think the wise a little obvious. We saw an insane amount of positive news last week. Tesla b. and y. Mellon mastercard twitter. Deutsche bank morgan stanley. Every show for the last week has been about some type of crazy positive news. If you've been listening it's hard for that amount of positive news to not have an impact in other words. The specifics of win this fifty thousand dollar price was going to happen. Are for those technicals. That i was mentioning above to figure out but the overall momentum has clearly been in this direction. This actually gets me to another point. I was trying to articulate on twitter. We have this linear time bias. That when things happen quickly we tend to feel like that the thing that was before the you're comfortable with was the correct thing versus the new thing and the new change. That happened really fast. In other words. Bitcoin was between ten thousand. And fifteen thousand for a really long time so fifty thousand seems overvalued but what if instead based on what we now know. Bitcoin was in fact radically undervalued for that. Same ferry long time.