The Numbers Don't Look Good...


Let's turn to the overall economy right now because as we get more and more earnings in, I don't think it's looking so hot. I mean, I've been watching this market and you know I've been watching it with a ton of skepticism because since October, we've been watching it just go up up and away. I think up about 13% on the S&P 500. But what happens once the panacea that investors are planning for doesn't actually pan out. Then what do we do? And I don't know if it's going to pan out. I just want to point out, we're looking at basically the slowest earnings growth for the third quarter sends 2020. I mean, in 2020, it was really, really bad. Corporate earnings are just not coming in. And we've got, well, nearly 95% of companies reporting already. And so I would just say, if it's that bad in the third, what happens in the fourth, when you get those numbers in? What are people really going to say? I do know this week are going to be watching a few biggies. We get Dollar General coming out with get Salesforce. We've got Kroger, the grocery store. And what we're looking for here is whether or not we're starting to see much in the way of pullback on behalf of consumers. One of the good things about companies like Dollar General is that sometimes you see a trade down effect when things get kind of tough. People start trading down to the walmarts to the dollar generals, so we'll be watching all of this to see what the consumer trends really are. I would just say a lot of companies having reported and this is all according to facts at which trax and for the third quarter we really are looking at a pretty miserable showing. So unless things somehow turn around, big time in the final three months of the year and we'll get those reports of course in 2023. I would think that a slowdown in consumer spending coupled with a Federal Reserve that even if they're not doing 75 basis points is still trying to come through with 50 basis points each time I would think that you are going to start to see some softening. I would point out that the stocks are trading right now around 17 times earnings. It's a little bit higher than their historical ten year average. Not as crazy as it was. I mean, I think we're up around 21, 22 times earnings before. So we're back in a more normal range, but still in a very bullish optimistic range. And

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