All aboard the Boris Express
Sensible Rex it fights off the threat from the insurgent Brexit party. And I have to say that, that is a the job that I believe I'm best suited to do today. Bus Johnson came out fighting yesterday to finally launch his bid the next prime minister as the field of candidates narrows impulsion way out in front can anything derail the bars express. Also this week, we'll be looking at whether any of the contenders promises on Brexit tax cuts, and the economy actually stuck up past all in this week's politics weekly. It was standing remain the at the Notre Johnson's leadership bid yesterday with hard Brexit is and conservative rising stars. All that show support with maybe an on the job in the next cabinet at the time of recording. We don't know who hasn't who hasn't got the sixteen th needs to stay on the list of contenders. But we can probably see in that Johnson Dominic Robb, Jeremy hunt, Michael Savage, avid, and Matt Hancock all on there at the moment. The contest is bosses to lose. Is he really the best man for the job or anything? Well, I'm joined to discuss all this by Isabel Harbin, from the spectator Jonathan list from British influence and politics from the guardian. How do you think the boss when yesterday sort of emerge unscathed sufficiently boring enough? Well, that was certainly a was to make it doll safety, I, which is really the, the theme of borstal since campaign when he's allowed out to speak. The aim is basically to try to make him look a bit more serious politician. And so, in terms of his speech, and in terms of I think the way he answered the questions will didn't answer them in loss of cases. I think his team would have been quite pleased with that. There was one thing that, that over-shadowed it bit thing, which was that some MP's as she heckled journalist for asking Johnson, a very reasonable question about his comments about walking women who were berkers, and it's often the case activists from parties. Get annoyed with journalists for us dear leader inconvenient questions, but it's still quite unusual for MP's to do that. And I'm not God load of welfare candidate. It's very badly for. Candidate. It makes them look defensive as they call something to hide and what I thought made it. Worse was Liz trust. One of Boris Johnson supporters that went on TV to defend her colleagues heckling saying that they were entitled to question the questions of journalists, which, I think it would be much easier. Just to say, I think some of my colleagues over excited here can also himself, the, the idea of being PM. I've been laughed at a few months ago, and an and I think that probably we thought that his colleagues had lost trusted him toy MP's lost trust in him. Particularly his performances foreign secretary. Why are they running behind? This is being quite extraordinary. It's the conservative party completely losing any sense of responsibility for the fate of the nation, the party that used to be the solid, the reliable, the party of government has become wild reckless revolutionary because they think he is the only person who might. Squeak past in general election, and save them from both thorough and from Corbin unsaved, their seats and save that party. He might on the other hand be the final explosive device that blows the whole thing apart. It might be that he is so poorly that if he really does take us out of Europe. Ota no deal that the conservative party makes it self unelectable forever afterwards because of the self inflicted chaos caused, but they reckon that as things stand, he might save them this eat a very low reason choosy. Doesn't. He He seems seems to to have been. been concentrating quite a lot on just on just securing the backing of MP's announcing a thing you know, particularly controversial into things. I think a tax cut and also that he would leave with thirty. I is just him kind of keeping things. Very simple. As best route to success is only seem sort of the moment. If you all the kind of the pole position candidate of your day you won't have any controversy under Johnson is famous for that. And so he's, he's just letting the ship go on. If you like Theresa May to the Cima thing in a way in two thousand sixteen. When she just washed everyone else, self combustion. She was the last person standing there. The problem for Johnson is that he's told the truth extraordinarily when he said that the tour spaced extinction, if it didn't liver Brexit both thirty Tober there is no way on earth. They can deliver Brexit thirty post Tober. There are a couple of weeks parliamentary time after the summer recess where nothing can be done sell you that can. No more renegotiation, and no more led to legislation. And so he's already made a rod for his own back, that the first thing he'll have to do is prime minister is go to the EU and asked to stay in it. So already the trust will be will we smash I can't understand why the Tories don't understand that. And conversely, if you did try to get that no deal. As police said, if you actually went over the cliff, and then Boris Johnson would never be forgiven out the toys, wouldn't either and then parliament, probably humiliates him and try to stop it anyway. So there's really no way through him that he can emerge from this with any kind of credibility whatsoever. Smell somebody other candidates have tried to gain a bit of credibility people like Jamie hunt, and my ankle by saying, actually it's very difficult to leave with no deal deal no deal by thirty because his Dunton's laid out. You know, it's difficult to negotiate in that anything new in that time. And also because parliament is like to stop an ideal Brexit. Do any of those candidates avenue chance of beating him when it comes to the runoff thinking people? Turn me on all the sausage avid month ago. Jeremy hunt or such genital Mike who gave the most light, he might Hancock, he mentioned, this is probably going to get knocked out, either in this round or the next one because he just doesn't have enough of a constituency within the conservative party and his pitch. We went to his launch on Monday, his pitch was slightly crazed or have. Difficult to sort of pinned on what he believed other than motivational aphorisms. I felt like I was spinning class well to relationship. The other say are trying to sort of offer a bit more realistic Brexit plan. And that's tricky in the current Tory party, because the mood in the party is not really one for any further delay. They're still reacting to the procrastination of Theresa May. I'm perhaps, not looking at the situation that she's left the party. And in trying to work out the best way out of that they just don't want anyone who's going to put it off any more, and that's why Boris Johnson. Dominic Robb were the only two candidates who even got auditions before the European research group, which is the, the most Brexit he group in, in the conservative party, and has a huge amount of power, not just in the parliament party. But also, I think amongst the conservative membership. So it's tricky, because I think there is Brexit. Purity contest going on at the moment that doesn't bear a great deal of relation to reality of those putty of, of Michael Savage. Avid, Jeremy hunter DC is having the most. Likelihood of beating Johnson, what I suppose it would be go, if he can recover from the ca- Cain hypocrisy, which really sunk him oughta rolls astonishing. But maybe he can be forgiven in which case he's much the strongest contender. He knows burst back front if he really decides to put the knife in again, as he did last time he could be very effective when one of the candidates, not really talking about a tool anymore. She was quite strangest Dominic Robb. Who did you know sort of seen as maybe he could be the true Brexit tier candidate when Boris you know, it folded early than him said he was gonna vote trees may deal. But he's lost all of that year. G support to Boris what he used on the sue the winner under Johnson is going to match rob pound for pound in Brexit. Then those no reasons about rob who is much less sympathetic charming character. You have question marks over his personal character, which haven't quite been addressed. And who is has the kind of eight. Tori. Boy thing about him bay, which is going to not be particular turn, onto the tweet party was certainly not to the wider electric. Yes. So that's always don't since we've not now all the space is really ain't rob is also tainted, his, he didn't leave the cabinet obviously, after the check is agreement that was Boris, who did that? And, and Boris Johnson is therefore able to, to claim that he is more Brexit Pierce. We come back to this incredible sort of holy Brexit. Contest is going on the Johnson survived. The backstop no one's talking about the box December. Twenty seventeen Theresa May sign us up to customs union a great time. Johnson was he knew what it was. And then after extraordinarily when he left the company said he didn't know what it was. So he was basically saying that he was the gullible stupid or liar. I didn't seem to matter because he's tashaun. It's fascinating how there's actually a higher bar for the behavior of all the other candidates part from Boris. Johnson is something his team say the whole, always purse. Life is priced in. It's almost as though he could actually have killed people. And that would also trunks shooting Fifth Avenue, the front runners who've said that they are the two, I suppose we, if we still count rob amongst the front runners that they've said that we prepared to take the UK out of the EU with no deal on October thirty first Burston Dominic Robb, the others of, of sort of said that they think it's possible that parliament would be up to stop that. But we saw yesterday at there was an opportunity for parliament to set in motion for that to be another to at least reserve another date to try and pass a law to stop it. And Isabel some people listening and probably anyone who's not been following this with the minute detail of a full-time job gonna find it quite quoted to hear that it was defeated last night, feels like parliament's voted against no deal. Quite a few times, and what can you maybe you could explain to me about what happened last night? Here's those interesting topics going on last night. You had a group of conservative MPC voted with labour on this vote, which was to allow Paul. Lament to rule out no deal in future vote just to complicating confuse matters even further. But then you had a group of labor MP's, who voted with the government people like katoey, who obviously, managed to enrage their policy on, on regular basis, with their with that Brexit views, and you also had a number of ubstantially as well. And so this is turned the labor party in on itself again, with the very pro remain pro second referendum, anti no do, and, like, Ben Bradshaw, friends since turning on their colleagues and saying how much they've let the party downs. We, we've got another labor split here. This is a big boost to those candidates. He believe parliament actually won't stop new deal. I suppose it is if, if there is a mechanism for stopping teaches clear what that make an ISM could be done that all of the people like all of let win been out this morning that the Taurean peon and the former Tory bowl saying that this was the last chance, there are no more assigned opposition day debates. Which the government has to grant, but in power to grant labor time to have debates on things where they want, but those, those days of now, run out, and there's also no obvious legislation going through parliament for for amendments to be attitude that could stop no deal. So what is the root pop from a confidence vote without is the nuclear button, the confidence. But I think that we need to look at John berko hear abo- cove is cost himself as some kind of maverick revolutionary when it sees him, and he is prepared to cost aside, conventions and rewrite the rulebook. I mean, I'm not an expert in, in three parliamentary etiquette and protocol. So I don't know exactly how much power he has. But it seems that he can rewrite us in may sort of as he goes along. So if he decides if parliament has a will, to introduce legislation, very quickly as cupid early this year, and they all given an opportunity to vote for that. I just can't see any way which was say no. The procedure says, unfortunately, what happened last night is that. Parliament decided not to have the opportunity, it'll make it very difficult. I think for berko to devise anything also you're asking him to do something way out of anything he's done so far. I think we're going to end up with whether there will be enough conservative MP's willing to bring the house down willing to have a virtual no-confidence in what who will presumably be Boris MP appear them and a call for general election. And I just don't know when it comes to it, whether the likes of people who have very anti Brexit, whether they'll really go that for what do you think is about? Do you think enough of them to actually agree with? That would be if you get government. And then in the confidence that you lose it. Yeah, I think that is your way basically saying, I've it with the conservative party who knows that things are quite Phibro at the moment till they, there is less of a thirst for leaving parties given. What's happened to change? You K because I think that stuff Shane, how difficult it is to, to go to loan from a big structure this being rumbling along for many decades labor LaTour. He's, I suppose we can, we also have to see what happens over the course the leadership contest. If Boris Johnson has heart and his position over summer to try and win over very hard. Brexit. Selectric una comes parliament is still sitting at the end of July, when he's elected then that could be the moment where his colleagues, Dominic grieve just in greening, maybe say in office enough. You're going to take on the touch toba. We know having it. And then you trigger that election, when there's still time to stop no deal. Three months later, but they will not be allowed to stand as conservative. I mean that only. Seats are there enough of them, we don't sacrifice their careers for the sake of the country? And that's what it'll come to possibly. There are enough noble minded people willing to do that. I mean, I guess one of the things that we haven't touched on his whether it's it is possible for any of these candidates to get any kind of new deal bioterr- thirty. I, I mean, we of laughing about that. But if it comes to the crunch, d think that there are people who maybe didn't believe Theresa May was prepared to take that with no deal. But may believe that someone I on snus. Well, this is the line that the sort of the Boris style candidates of news, the European Union, saying they're not going to reopen the withdrawal agreement, they're not going to start renegotiating any way. They say will they would say that wouldn't they that's kind of, you know, they're starting line in the Goshi -ation, and perhaps studies, the stance, the European Union, that will then fold when suddenly this new powerful conservative leader comes in, but even. The leadership candidates who claim they're trying to be more realistic like Jeremy hunt, for instance, still saying they want to reopen the withdrawal agreement. So all of them are prompting something that according to what has been said, so far is not realistic. How would it look from Europe? The EU is tied to these games it's actually written into the extension that you can't renegotiate withdrawal agreements that is put, so the box office and changing the only thing in might be able to. And this is a purse is to renegotiate a political declaration, which isn't going to be enough, because it has no legal way. But more importantly, there are only two things you can do the political declaration, the first is to soften it. So you explicitly asked to negotiate accustomed on a single market, which is obviously not help any, the Tories or you hard in it in the pad on the backstop, just Northern Ireland and not cleaves the concert. India's partying one clean slice. So there's nothing that they can do, which will help them tool on the backstop is simply not of negotiation. It's only use political interest to sacrifice its. Leverage for a prime minister. He hates them and the feelings mutual. Thanks willie. Back after this.