Explainer 172: Is Iran bluffing?

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Oh in two thousand fifteen iran and several other global players be permanent members of the u n security council european union concluded something colby joint comprehensive plan of action or poa it remains shame the deep persian acronym which works out to bob jim didn't control more widely united states together were international partners the cheap something the decades of animosity has not a comprehensive long term deal with iran will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon dean chick polo also known as the iran deal because nobody enjoys saying poet acknowledge no buddy out saudi round won't iran to possess nuclear weapons it also acknowledge see high likelihood iran itself doesn't really want iran to possess nuclear weapons even if he ayatollah got to the point of having functional functional nuclear missiles before someone took decisive action to stop them unlikely any such capability would serve mostly to make iran even more by pariah state funding ready is so under the deal iran agreed to winding its nuclear development reducing its uranium stockpiled ninety eight percent and slashing the number of operating centrifuges among other restrictions in return iran and regain access to overseas assets loan frozen and was able to sell its oil abroad and joined the global financial system unbalanced iran deal walls mouthpiece of diplomatic pragmatism in twenty fifteen stay in the previous administration joined with other nations in a deal regarding iran's nuclear program however in the view of usa president donald trump it well you as president barack obama's mouthpiece of diplomatic pragmatism metabolism and therefore it had to go lost year usa went abandoning the deal and reinstating sanctions on iran and its trading partners i am announcing today that the united states will withdraw from the iran nuclear deal this week despite efforts by other parties to the deal and in fact in the cf it's all around to keep her alive iran breached v three hundred kilograms limits on the stockpile part of loving reached uranium this is almost certainly an act of attention seeking theatrical onto runs pot since theorists walked out of the deal iran's line has been they won't to uphold the deal but resent the penalties that followed washington's withdrawals iran has pointed out correctly the international atomic energy agency has verified iran's compliance up until now iran's foreign minister javad zarif has been quick to note the neurons latest the move is reversible jerky monitor them you don't have about a ride as planned has exceeded three hundred categorized as previously announced so we have clearly announced oil days and we see it is that right within the church to grow as who there wasn't one out about job there are as they always are in the middle east other dimensions to this situation grand strategy in the region is always best imagine there's a cross between chess poker and jenga recent weeks have seen largely cosmetic attacks on tank is vital persian gulf chokepoint of the strait of hormuz almost every buddy but around has blamed iran for viz iran also shut down you as drone retaliate tree rate seems to have been called off the rim of president trump while the planes were already airborne all of which is to say nothing of the perennial rivalry between iran and saudi arabia multilateral proxy conflicts between the path still raging in syria yemen and you brought the history of the middle east ties to a very large extent being directed by five used to predict what is going to happen next in the middle east as such old dispatches from inside the crystal ball should be regarded where really but it is very likely the case that iran has overplayed its hand as much as the rest of the parties to juxtapose won't keep agreements alive few of them especially you will choose iran over the united states if forced to pick a side if iran bluff is cold turnaround faces a choice of un would climb down or risking wall hoping that regime that violated you it will be able to blackmail the world into making concessions and reducing conomic pressure on it we should do v exact opposite now is the time to increase the pressure now the time is royal regards the prospect of nuclear armed iran as an existential threat not unreasonably giving you apocalyptic rhetoric of iran and its client militia hezbollah in extremist israeli doubtless act as it has previously acted against nuclear facilities in iraq and syria it is also clear that there is a faction within washington dc perhaps still simmering v hostage humiliation of forty years ago that regards iran as and account as yet unsettled and would relish any excuse if you cross us allies are partners you harm our citizens if you continue to lie cheat and deceive yes there will indeed be held a pay raise belief of welcome to two thousand and nineteen ice iran may still hold is donald trump his apparent cold back over last month striking demonstrated again but for all his bellicose busta trump has little enthusiasm for war tyrone may perceive in trump's withdrawal from poet another integration of trump's trademark damn but of course problem solve problems claim credit and be waiting now for she's counteroffer because just as trump has been determined to destroy ever bama bills he also clearly wants anything obama had and if north korea will deliver his nobel peace prize rapprochement

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