Listen: Taiwan, United States And Donald Trump discussed on Radio Specials
"We are in the early stages of a trade war with China, that didn't exist two years ago, the to President Trump. And she say they are trying to reach a deal to call the whole thing off. Our resolution is framed this way, the US and China will both lose the trade war. Our first debater will be Parag Khanna. Let's start with the ways in which will be a relative loser for both China in the US. The further you look out in the future. I think the further this will become apparent some major shifts in trading patterns really predate the trade wars, such as usual of supply chains out of China. A lot of it has to do with the fact that Chinese wages have been rising so multinational companies, whether American or Japanese or European have been diverting their labor in their manufacturing out of China into southeast Asia for quite some time. Foxconn, for example, is done so as well. India last year, about more foreign investment than China, did southeast Asia got more foreign investment for the last. Five years. And now, of course, China's industrial policies alienating a lot of countries suspicion of Chinese companies like wow away as well. China's sort of being brought back to earth in that sense through this trade war now for the US, the cases, even more clear cut in terms of our twin lose because most of what the US exports to China can be substituted by others. Whether it semiconductors that China is going to get from Taiwan or South Korea, or Japan, soybeans, that it will get from Brazil, and Argentina and Even Russia's growing soybeans airplanes. Maybe China will stop buying as many from Boeing, and we'll buy more from Airbus. So the US will also be a loser from the trade war. Thank you. Our next speaker on this resolution, the US in China will both lose the trade war, Susan Thornton. How do you declare yes or no gonna stop being country? And now I'm gonna go. But no, I think both countries are already losing the trade war. I do think they'll at a more optimistic note that if we can pull back from this trade war, and get some kind of deal. There is a possibility that both sides can win China is in a period of retrenchment from reform. There's a joke going around in China now who are too old guys who are going to push China into the modern era. Deng Xiaoping, and Donald Trump. They want Donald Trump to push China's hard as possible to re invigorate its economic reform program, because they know that the Chinese economy needs to move to the next stage of opening up. And I think the rest of the globe would also benefit from some kind of a deal that we could get, as long as we get some progress on these structural issues. Susan Thornton on this resolution in Bremmer do declare. Yes or no? I'm gonna declare. No. I don't think there's going to be a trade war. He'll very strongly that the Americans and Chinese for different, but overlapping reasons. Going to back down Trump because he doesn't want it to affect the American markets and it hasn't really except for a little scare in December. And because he wants to show that he personally can do a big deal and the Chinese because actually there Connie's gotten a little bit more vulnerable, and Xi Jinping doesn't want this fight right now where the US and Chinese economies were very interdependent still are China's becoming gradually larger economy than the US, but still very far behind on a per capita basis. Yes, we're seeing growth slow in both China and the United States in China. That's because of Deti leveraging and the United States that's because of the fed and the end of the tax cut stimulus. So if you ask them to really make a strong call here, we both going to get hurt by this trade war at the margins. I think I'd say, yes but overall, I think I'd say no thank you. Our next speaker on the resolution, the US and China will both lose the trade war, Michelle floor to declare, yes or no. Declare. Yes, given the interconnectedness of the two Connie's. It's really not possible for either country to win a trade war shit continued restrictions on trade end up resulting in increased prices and decreased exports for both countries. I think if these terrorists were sustained into the future, there's projections that you'd see reduced US exports. Decreased GDP and also elimination of Santeuil number of American jobs. The US does need to challenge. China's unfair trade practices, whether it's restrictions on market access theft of intellectual property subsidies, extraordinary subsidies to state-owned enterprises. But the tariff war is the wrong way to go."