Election Day 2020: Rick Davis


Joining us live is Bloomberg's Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital has run a good number of campaigns, including John McCain's 2008 Rick Again. Thank you so much for joining us. My pleasure. Yeah, The Democrats seem focused on Pennsylvania Joe Biden yesterday back again today, Camilla Harris today saying it be decided they're Biden claims it's his first home. Polling has been good. But now the NBC Marist poll today shows it tightening. Where does this stand? Well, it's on the horse race side. You can't tell, but it's been a very stable election. Even in Pennsylvania, Biden held the lead anywhere from 4 to 10 points, depending on which poll and at what point in this campaign. But that's the nature of this campaign is so unusual is how little has really changed lately. I mean, when you were tracking polls and you're only you know, seeing Ah pointer to tightening or loosening in the course of an election. It shows you a very stable electric. In other words, people have made up their minds and we've seen in the last month. People are voting in record numbers during these early votes, And so my guess is Pennsylvania. I would say. Friends toward Biden because he's never been behind in any public or private survey I've seen, but you know, we're see what happens on Election Day. Yeah, Also Florida I mean, for the most part of Florida Early on, and who knows early eyes? It goes for for Biden. They're saying that it's over. Yeah. If Florida goes for Biden, there's really no way for Donald Trump. To find a path to victory mean Biden start with some of the Trump states that he won before pretty much in Hiss. Calm. Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin. These are all states that Biden is right now tracking an almost 10 in some cases, 12 points. So you take those states away from Donald Trump. And he can't afford to lose those Bay States and the biggest one that he Has in play 29 electoral votes is Florida now have the two things have the pollsters learned anything since 2016 number one and have the Democrats learned anything since 2016 I'll take the last one. First. What the Democrats learned is that they needed to pick their spots as to where they need to win in orderto get the necessary electoral votes and And Hillary Clinton's campaign spread themselves all over states that were completely unnecessary. They had people in Arizona and other places the week before the election thinking we're going to turn Red States blue. What? What Joe Biden has shown is the discipline to park himself. As you said earlier in Pennsylvania, every surrogate he has in the country was in there today. And he's planted a flag. If I win Pennsylvania, I win the presidency and I'm fighting here. And he has Ah, just in just in the past hour in campaigning, talking to young talking to students, saying that they that they are the key. I mean, the Democrats have needed, you know, asking that question to motivate young voters. Michelle Obama's been beating this drum now since Since 2016 the young have to be showing up. Are we seeing that they will Yeah, There are record turnouts bank on Which state you're talking about in Pennsylvania is one of them where under 25 8. Voters are starting to show up in much bigger numbers than they did in 2016. Now whether or not that follows on Election day. These are all the early voters that we can track. But if that follows up on Election Day, the young voters could actually make a big impact on the state like Pennsylvania. OK, let's and and the presidency, of course, is what everybody focuses on the most for very good reason. But But let's let's look at the Senate here. I mean, if you're a Democrat, and you're looking at this, you're saying, Wow, we have a really good shot that this could flip. Yeah, His Senate is ah, Titan. There's no question about that. Republicans have probably five or six states where they have likely swings to the Democratic side, potentially. And they only have one pickup in in in. Ah, Alabama. What is interesting? State toe Watch is Georgia. Not only do you have a Senate race up for grabs, But you have a special election for a senator to Senate seats up in Georgia this year. And Georgia has a funky law where you have to get over 50% of the vote, or you go to a runoff. And at this point, neither one of the incumbent Republicans there look like they're going to be able to get to 50%. So you could have the control. The Senate decided months later in a special election on top of the special elections you already have? Yeah, possibly in in January. Now now vote counting. Of course, you know, we hoped to see something tomorrow probably won't. But the president has said that he may claim victory on on election night anyway, both sides of lawyered up. This could be a mess as well. I don't want to be negative, Bob, but but this could be a mess. Well, The good news is states run their elections and so unless they decide to defer to the president states, which would be extraordinary, right? No, no state Tends to do that voluntarily, then they're going to count at their own pace. In fact, we've never had an election where the actual elections certifications. We're on election night. They always take days later. In order to facilitate all the ballot collection and count all the ballots, And then the state certifies. There's there. It just simply doesn't happen on election night in any election we've ever had. And so I think that most of the states if their discipline and they follow their own rules, they'll pay no attention to the president's protestations. He did this in 2018 during the Florida governor's race where he said, Oh, you know, all the votes were counted, and we ought to just move on. We're Yeah, we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you so much and will watch for you and David and Jeannie. With our special election coverage

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