It's Election Day. Take a breath. Here's what to expect.
Politics. And this landscape in particular, Wendy Schiller joins us. She of Brown University, of course on a friend to the program, and Teo Is the station with the chair of political science again at Brown University. Wendy, What is your base case? No. I just get right to it. I think here's what I think will will know from some congressional races, I think, signaling earlier than even the presidential races. We know that there's a lot of people who are elected in 2018 in what we call competitive swing district like Virginia, for example. Leave Illinois. We have a couple of races in Texas that look really tight and are surprisingly competitive. We have a couple of Minnesota, you know if things start to swing in congressional district sooner. For the Democrats. Then you start to think, Okay, maybe buy will have a very good night. But, you know, we'll know about Florida will know about North Carolina will know about Arizona, and we'll know about Georgia, probably, but before midnight tonight, and if all of those swing for Trump If Trump looks really healthy in those states and looks like he could win, then I think things get very, very dicey for Biden, so that's a big sort of vomit or buying only when one of those states You know, one of those four states or look like he's in the lead in a considerable lead in one of those states for him, that sort of have a more relaxed night. But if he if Trump wins, all of Omar looks like he's going to win all of them, I think that that tells us that this sort of blue wave we thought might emerge isn't going to emerge the same way. So, Professor. How do you think the Senate will shake out is there in fact, you know the market's kind of suggesting here today that a blue wave may in fact be in the cards? How do you think that might go in the Senate? That that that's a great question, Paul because you think about the Senate, and you think you know Mitch McConnell is totally immune. This time, you would have thought if there's a big blue wave. You know, The guy has really been the poster boy for the campaign against the Republicans controlling the Senator Mitch McConnell. He's goingto probably breeze to reelection, some a little suspicious of that big blue way for the Senate. Iowa looks neck and neck. You know, we had a recent poll. That's very credible that looks like Joni Ernst can pull it out and stay. You know if Cal Cunningham can win in North Carolina That suggests probably that the Democrats might get 51. If they can win Maine as well. Probably away in Arizona. Probably gonna win Colorado and lose Alabama, so they're looking at probably minimally a 51 49 Republican, or 50, 50 51 49 Democrats. So I think that's where they you know, we don't know. And I think that's where North Carolina becomes so important, even even if we don't know by Trump. You know, it's Cal Cunningham looks like he's really gonna win that race that suggest better things. The Democrats across the board for the Senate Say some of that again. When do you say Arizona is definitely going to go Democrat Texas? What did you say about Texas? And then also, I think, Arizona for Mark Kelly. I think he's been polling very consistently ahead of Martha makes alley. But you can imagine, let's say people voting for more. Kelly, a former astronaut. You know and not voting for Joe Biden. You know, voting for Kelly because they want him over more than Sally and they voted for Trump in Arizona. You didn't see the Democrats winning Senate in Arizona but not winning the presidential race. Then Texas is, you know, shocking right? The turnout in Texas has been absolutely shocking. And but it looks like John Cornyn comfortably ahead of head guard that the challenger there, But I think the issue is that Trump is only basically one point ahead in Texas, which is just you know, if you think about politics, just stunning. Same with Georgia. George will be interesting because it does not get 50% or more against us off. Then you've got to run off elections in Georgia in January, and I think that's really going to be some interesting voting dynamics, so it's possible the Senate Democrats could ultimately end up with a 51 of 52 majority, but I still think it's a bit of a long shot. So Professor if the presidential election becomes contested, what is your kind of base case for how it may play out? I think we could be faced with an unprecedented historic situation. I think you know if we have a tie, for example, if in the Electoral College in December's actually a tie, it goes to the newly elected house, which is expected Thio more Democratic. However, the Republicans still control more votes in state delegations than the Democrats, and that's Probably isn't going to change so you could conceivably have literally the house electing a re electing President Trump but in the Senate. If it's 51 49 with the new Senate and its new Democrats, then they may like Tomahawk. Advice. I mean, really, quite stunning. It's really stunning thing. So I think so many things have changed already in 2020 weather, Trump gets reelected or not, is obviously monumental. But even if he gets reelected, I think the Democrats have shown they know how to mobilize voters, and I think they've shown some of these states have changed a lot in terms of demographics, and they are going to be more competitive, moving forward. Which changes the nature of politics going to 2022. If we know that politicians look at the next election the minute this election is over, and so when we start to think about what the balance of power might be in the Senate house in 2022 these gains the Democrats appear to be making among voters in the states. Changes a lot of dynamics, which will probably change some of the policies coming out of Congress. Yeah, I mean, it's really the African American gold, right, Wendy and how much more of that will see? We're already seeing, you know, a lot more engagement. Yeah. So I think African American who has always been key in North Carolina and Georgia had about 64% African American turnout in 2016. It wasn't enough because those numbers were not hit in in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania among African American voters, and they, you know they may or may not get there. If they get there, I think Biden winds relatively easily. But what's interesting is suburban white women. Of all educational levels seem to be really vehemently at the moment against Trump in the polls, and it could be that instead of the black vote really being key in the Midwest, it ends up being white women. Which would be really interesting shift, you know, mirrors 2018 when white, the majority of white women voted for democratic candidates, But it would change the nature of the Democratic coalition. If that were the deciding factor, So that's what I'm looking for. I'm looking for turnout, particularly in particular counties in Michigan. Well, we still have. A lot of people are gonna vote in person and certainly in Pennsylvania when you were really out of time. But I am desperate to