Is Coronavirus as deadly as we think?


Is a possible coronavirus isn't nearly as deadly as we've been here they're there to doctors professors medicine at Stanford won his name's Aron Baynes VT and other one is J. Bhattacharya and every piece in the Wall Street journal called is the crown of irises deadly as they say there's a fear of coming nineteen is based on high estimated case fatality rate two percent to four percent of people with confirmed coming nineteen have died according to W. H. O. and others so if one hundred million Americans ultimately get the disease two million four million could die we believe that estimate is deeply flawed the truth fatality rate is the portion of those infected who died not the deaths from identified positive cases right this is what I've been saying right here is not the question is not how many people die over how many people have been tested positive the question is how many people die over how many people have this thing period or have had it in in the last couple of months the degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited it could make the difference between an epidemic kills twenty thousand one kills two million people the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases in the true fatality rate is much lower that's not only possible but likely cities to professor of medicine at Stanford population samples from China Italy Iceland and you must provide relevant evidence on or around January thirty first country sent planes to evacuate citizens from China when those planes landed the passengers were tested for called nineteen quarantine after fourteen days the percentage you tested positive was zero point nine percent if this was the prevalence in the greater will head area on January thirty first and with a population of about twenty million federal had about a hot had at one hundred seventy eight thousand infections about thirty fold more than the number of reported cases they're saying to people who are flying let's say those people are representative general hand population by the way it is likely that is actually under representative of the generalized had population because those are the people who can afford to leave the country and come back to other countries that's a tele the rate according to these stats will be ten fold lower than the estimates based on reported cases next the northeastern Italian town of vote here the provincial capital of Padula on March sixth all thirty three hundred people in the lower tested ninety were positive as a prevalence of two point seven percent if you apply the prevalence of the whole province which has about a million people which had a hundred ninety eight reported cases that means they're actually twenty six thousand infections of the time that's more than one hundred and thirty fold the number of actual reported cases in Lee's case fatality rate of eight percent is estimated using confirmed cases the real fatality rate would not be eight percent to three point zero six percent which is actually lower than the flu fatality rates will be calculated point one percent in Iceland decode genetics is working with the government to prevent widespread testing city's columnist for the Wall Street journal and professor of medicine at Stanford in a sample of nearly two thousand entirely a symptomatic people researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over one percent ice ones first case was reported on February twenty eighth weeks behind US it's possible that the proportion of the US population that has been affected his double triple even ten times highs yes miss rice one that also implies a dramatically lower fatality

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