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I'm Melissa Leo Best Carter Worth Tim Seymour's Karen fighter men and guide dominated Tommy. The countdown is on its apple's big event tomorrow. Will it be enough to convince enthusiasts the world over to trade up in the middle of trade war also ahead activists investor. Elliott management taking a three billion dollar stake in at and T. A. Saying ix nay on the bank they see a sixty percents upside potential traitors take a second look and Boeing pausing using stress tests on its new triple. Seven after issue is discovered. We've got the details ahead. We begin with the Big Bang breakout on the day. The S. and P. Five hundred ended in the red checkout. He's he's moves from City Bank. America Wells Fargo David Morgan all firmly in the green for wait a minute. It was just a few days ago. The racer plunging yield curves inverting cats and dogs living together together and now look so the banks turned a big corner guy this desk by the way cats and dogs living together guy who's not sorry sorry who had a cat or a dog. I guess well how good question to answer on TV well. Let's go to the marketplace Sultana think they've turned the corner at all but what happened is everything got a little ahead of itself and it's not like we haven't talked about this. We're not saying this in a vacuum. Go back Tuesday. I think before Memorial Day we actually power-pitch some of the banks specifically it was city saying that you know what boring markets slow week into a holiday markets probably GONNA rally the toto's probably gotten and ahead of itself when city trades that discount to tangible book historically over the last couple of years. It's been a buy and that's pretty much what's happening. I mean I don't think again. The landscape has gotten better for the banks. Necessarily just the trading landscape in the short term has so the city have more room yeah probably overshoot seventy two like it undershot to sixty one but I think the the headwinds that they faced still exists today are some rays of sunshine based on what the CFO told the Barclay Financial Services Conference today that they expect growth in the back. AH The year that there are other parts of the business that can offset some of the losses or the softness in sort of the rate sensitive businesses so can you sort of extrapolate that some of the other brings thinking. Maybe things aren't as bad as people thought yeah I think I think that what the price they were trading at before. Two days ago really reflected a lot of things so I don't think I more that a lot of bed extra too much penalties there. I think if you think about where Citibank was trading you know well under ten times earnings a three percent yield. JP Morgan tend to change times earning a three and a half percent yield Bank of America under ten times earnings. I mean that's a lot about news priced in and their business models aren't all interest income right. There's a lot of other income in there as well so I think you know the market just saying Oh the whole book of Big Money Center banks is a giant two year tenure spread it must be going to zero didn't make sense. I'm not selling them here. I think they're still attracted. I'll actually question because we've had one kind of from a market position. Technicals Protective Talk and fundamentals. I'll talk to you the context of the overall market this this could you could make a comparison to the first quarter twenty sixteen when we're worried about global growth and banks essentially got through this period where once we got the sense that recession was off the table banks want on argue a very historic run for them relative to at least the cycle. Citibank's up thirteen percent eight days. It's up close to sixteen percent in sixteen days if you look at the X. L. F. It's basically kept pace with the SNP. Despite all of the things things that have happened to bank so the most important thing that happened today and I hate hyperbole may but I will tell you I think this is one of the most extraordinary trading days of the year that no one's talking about impressive was flat and yet you had banks three percent. You had expertise three and a half percent. You would transfer this is a major day for the march is not about the banks banks right. It's a behavioral thing. Is You look at the one hundred. What was the best performing stock the more beaten down. You were the better your slumber J. Lead. You Got Simon Property. You've got things like I mean in hindsight which is literally down eighty percent. Ge in the top ten so it's it's not a bank story although it is that's part of the story because they matter the most. It's simply dead. Cat bounces and dead cats do bounds but do they really come to life. No they're still dead heartbeat. It was more about deflation isn't as bad as you thought. I'm not going to tell you that deflation because I believe it's there's some stuff as leftover from the crisis but but deflation as it was exemplified and illustrated through bond yields around the world through gold going through the roof through everything else that was related to acid replacing going through the floor. The rally today are asset based their reflationary based and that's very exciting sites the retail these are retails that won't exist at some point in three five seven whether it's an urban outfitters. Tayo Ay and it's again it's it's it wasn't specific the banks the fact that it was craft. Ge tells you it was just an unwinding. If there's two sides here on this side of the desk extraordinary training day or just dead cats that's bouncing to make extraordinary trading day in terms of the move in yield terms everything he pointed out was extraordinary the context of what we've seen but I tend to sort of I I well. It should come as no surprise ten more with Carter Worth. I do think these are bounces within the framework of things that have just been oversold. I mean you mentioned Simon Properties. These go back and look where it bottomed out in April. Two Thousand Eighteen look where recently bought them at so you can understand the bounce slumber. J. has been left for dead. I mean we've talked about it. Seemingly for a year and a half trying at least I have tried to ascertain when the bottom would be unsuccessfully. We've seen moves like this before. This will be so again. I guess the fact that the SNP when he was unchanged today bowls could say what that someone constructive bears could say it should have been up twenty five handles on a day like today the other flipside of what happened today was growth oath at any price which had been where everyone wanted to go no matter what terrible complete reversal names like crowd strike or zoom right just absolutely getting annihilated highlighted today so you're just a rotation is just everything that didn't work now pile into that everything that did work time to bail but the question is exactly. I can't can't be in a crowd strikers in there too expensive. They're expensive. Yes two days ago even down ten percent too expensive for me. I think would momentum goes out. Those kind of names have were down to maybe more it's not. It's not terribly surprising that a crowd strike in company and their ilk are going down. Maybe on a daily today or just not rallying as much what's been interesting. Is that Koogle Amazon anything. That's been defensive relative momentum but actually you know they. They tend to be low momentum. Stocks in in difficult times in the market are under performing to Carter cares rights talk about. I don't know anything changed slumber J. in the last week in fact I think lenders as got some tough times ahead of them but when I look at some of the other parts of the market including the transports that are very real companies that are not going out of business that I don't think they're dead. Cat bounces. I'm not saying the world has gotten better in two days. I'm I'm telling you that it's always about positioning. It's always about where I think. The market momentum is we've got an ECB meeting coming up in a few days it's also going to I think help tell the tale of work. Global yields yields go because I think that the European Union is the one that was dragging global yields down and we know that the machines momentum is on both sides momentum down or some momentum up in if I go and when it flips. It's the you get these levers going on both sides but it doesn't usually last that long. At what point do you think I mean. Would you would take a lot of time and a lot more of this kind of thing. Because we saw the bouncing we saw in the certainly bouncing today. You just need in a lot more than I I agree cars. I don't think anything can you can't say suddenly it's it's all good for all these things that have underperformed for long time but for the last three weeks we've seen the DAX ax outperforming the machine emerging markets outperformed so This isn't a one day phenomenon today. It was a bit of an exclamation point on things that really suffer from deflation all right her neck. Scott says you may WanNa pump the brakes on the banks especially ahead of next week's. Fed Meeting joining us now. Steve chaperone equity strategists portfolio manager at Federated Investors Steve Great Great to see you again. so is it just the banks or is it all of these sectors that were dead cats bouncing Carter. I don't know if I'd do as far as the dead cat I. I'm somewhere in between I think Carter and Tim here and what I mean by that is it's very enticing when you look at the move in the banks today and you put it in the overall context then that context has rate rates bottom two weeks you go and have moved higher. The city surprise index bounced into positive territory week ago and value in general has moved up so there's an inclination to want US okay this is. This is the move in the value cyclicals that we've been waiting for. I think you need a little bit of confirmation on that. I think you need see what the Fed does in a week. I think they need to deliver against market expectations I think. ECB similarly has to at least provide some some delivering. I think this meeting is not as important as the one that comes in November when Christine lagarde takes over but move the ball forward and then I think you need the data that continue to come in strongly. If what we're talking about is a global reflation trade because the stimulus that's been put in the system helps the economy to move in the in the back half of the year. That's incredibly bullish and so I'm enticed by it but I'm not willing to kind of jump all in on it just yet so how are you. How are you positioned in the market right now. It sounds like like your you want to see how the data plays out. It sounds like you think I mean the federal probably cut twenty-five deliver on something that's sort of in the expected realm the the data is a little bit of a question mark at this point. So what do you do you think about the market right now is really a battle between the P and the right the P. should be higher. We've taken the discount outrage for stocks and we've cut it in half the only reason why the market isn't higher is because the market's concerned about recession and so they're worried about that e part so I think what it really comes comes down to is how our earnings gonNA come through and that's why trade matters. That's why Hong Kong brexit matters our view. Is that our base case. Scenarios earnings are going to be okay. They're going to be flat right to slightly up. You're going to get a revaluation higher because of those lower yields and that's where you play out over the next six to twelve months however over the course of the next month or so. I WANNA WANNA see how that goes. I want to see how the Fed goes. I WANNA see how earning season so when we were here earlier in the year we were eight percent overweight.

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