Joe Biden, Vice President And Elizabeth Warren discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics


Actually think that these this is joe. Biden talks like on there is an argument made that like he's he's definitely older than he has been any other time he ran for president the words literally trip off his tongue sometimes and then fall fall flat but just to go back to something. I think we have a little bit. Whatever reasons he buys here where we're saying. Oh look people are just making a big deal about it the age thing because joe biden's old man people were making really big thing about the thing with with clinton mckay john mccain the idea that the parties have been dominated by baby boomers for quite a bit of time. I think people saw after two thousand sixteen and the democratic party people making a big deal about we need to get young people on off the bench weeded entirely new crop of democratic elected officials so like did this is not just a twenty twenty thing the joe biden thing i could go either way could just be joe biden. I think the parkland thing is probably maybe the most damning one because he was implying that he was vice president during that shooting and he was not whoa and maybe it's unfair but like i actually think it sort of doesn't really matter what the actual cause is whether this is is just how biden has always talked more or less than and we just noticed it now because he's older or because more attention on this but this is partly why i was as i thought the the first debate was was a real problem for biden is because again. I don't think voters care particularly exactly how how old you are but if you seem old i think they will penalize. I mean yet to me. It feels like a little backward. You're having these conversations about gaffes when the gas themselves are usually not so important because the media is reluctant to talk about age when i think h is quite important and okay maybe kind of evens out by risk for biden here. I mean i think we as a show have been a little skeptical of the bottom skepticism in the sense that like his policy positions are not too far the center for democrats in fact. They're probably as close to the meeting democratic. You can get basically right. All the stuff about his hands didn't really seem to go anywhere but i do think that when voters are hearing the same story from multiple angles anaheim is underlying concern about his age that could be damaging so you're hearing being from trump. That biden has lost his fastball. You're hearing from the left. People who are in supporters harris supporters or whatever else title for bernie supporters. I guess warren i mean we can talk about like his seventy or seventy seven a big deal. I think women are some man that is a big gap we but you know the the mayor pete and the harris supporters are going to be all over this story right and then you have the media kind of talking about these gaffes and i don't know i mean we should you like gifts above replacement level garth. Here's what's interesting. I mean it. Is you know initial coverage of biden eighty eight when he ran for president you go back and you look at those new stories and everyone talks about one. One of the reasons why joe biden is seen as an attractive nominee is that he's a great speaker and the meant that in the sense of he gave great stump speech that was soaring in kennedy esque rhetoric now. I think it didn't hurt that he was a young handsome irish catholic guy right the comparison sort of lead themselves. If if you look at this election and sort of see joe biden tripping over his words maybe that draws a contrast or maybe like i was saying he's kind of always had a little bit of that like loopy loopy speech when he's not reading something directly from a teleprompter but then you look at the two other older candidates on the democratic side bernie and warren they're both both pretty sharp on on the stump and i think you know this hasn't been pointed out a lot overtly but you know last week there was a lot of sort of fun mm-hmm social media clips from bernie's team showing him pitching to someone in the backyard. You know he was the pitcher they were practising for softball game and then it shows bernie ernie like at that and he's hitting like he smacking something into the outfield now it's silly and fun and blah blah blah but you know what the underlying message of that is our guys vigorous seventy seven year world. He shoots baskets and our girl elizabeth. Warren is a vigorous seventy year old. She runs through penn station. She is in that she tries to log six six miles on her pedometer. Everyday i read every single one of these profiles of these big candidates in in in magazines. Every single elizabeth warren thing goes out of the way to include a few details about her buzzing physicality real voters that goes into their impression. You want someone who has like a little a fire under their ass like that's that's the thing and i will say biden is like trim guy was implied in the one who was like if trump brings up my my age chefs al challenge the push ups on the debate stage. I should note here. You know seventy five year. Olds are not cripples also to clear point. Can i just has read something from a political article making a comparison to joe biden in two thousand eight. It's during the two thousand eight presidential campaign biden ass missouri state senator chuck graham to stand up at rally so the crowd could see him as a paraplegic during that same campaign he claimed that jobs is a three letter word and he introduced his running mate as barack america he he also said in an interview with c._b._s. News that year that f._d._r. went on t._v. After the great stock market crash and of course rose wasn't president in nineteen twenty nine and the white house television broadcasts were not yet. I think there was no t._v. So it is fair to say that this is harder. Cu joe biden is separate from how old joe biden is okay yes but i would separate out verbal miscues misspeaking from just sort of like seeming like you're having i think trouble mentally specify which akina i thought there was that biden in the first debate and to a lesser extent in the second debate ronda risk of just seeming old to voters not because he said t._v. When he should have said radio but just because he was sort of tripping on his words a little bit or or you know the sentence structure was a little circuitous like trump's yeah exactly and now trump got elected president so maybe it matters adar's but not enough compared to other things or you can overcome it. Yeah i mean all of this stuff kind of like i bring up the trump sentence structure because that really is thing and and then you can compare it to well okay trump had a circuitous sentence structure but he said it vigorously and therefore everyone thought it was great. Sarah palin had he similarly similarly circuitous sentence structure when she ran in two thousand eight and everyone called her dumb as rocks. I'm not going to give an opinion on sarah palin mental fitness but she was no worse necessarily in interviews than than trump is when it comes to conveying a message so i think a little bit some of the problems with biden is just he's older but he also becoming rohrschack test for support for biden is and and i think that's what we're we're really coming down to and it's it's like then that's what it is. It's a war shock test known. It's a fine line between oh you know. Authentic and folksy and hazel yeah isn't slick and it's not a and that's and that's the biden campaign was he's matt slick. Let's rob on this neat. Pollsters have asked various questions that have gotten at the issue of electability and who voters view as electable or not in twenty twenty does it seem from looking at that polling that voters are taking into account age in assessing who they see as electable me right now. Biden is certainly still gaining a lot more from electability questions than he loses look. I think there are a lot of democrats who's thinking along the lines of something the following the most important thing is to be trump. I am worried that a warren or bernie it'd be too far left to beat trump even though i might be find more or less with their policies so there's biden however the aid thing gives me pause on biden because that takes my security away. Maybe he'll be fine. Maybe he won't be but like but he no longer becomes like a safe option. If you think he's not firm wellness debates he seems maybe not as you know vigorous terms of the kind of which types of events he's doing how can free flowing things are like mine is out there doing a fair number of scripted and stage vance right. He hasn't had a ton of media. Avails had a ton of time where he's left to kind of roam. Free sounds a little weird at does but i think it kind of takes away the degree of security that voters might have about biden and i think in the long run the kind of chips away his electability. Is it that biden. If he were twenty years younger twenty years sharper seeming would would now be at forty five percent fifty percent in the polls or that. This is a soft spot for him. I'm that if something happens to exacerbate it held drop further you get what i mean. I think if biden were twelve twelve years younger so would he be then sixty five. Yeah i think he would be at least fifty fifty to win the nomination entrusting between maybe doing a little bit better now right and between having less of this kind of downside risk man. He did run for president twelve years ago talk about yeah and again. I think it's important probably to be clear as we wrap up that we can speak in aggregate about the effect that age each has on people and we can observe how the candidates are behaving on the stump but we can't say anything specific about how age affect we're picking one person me president. I just think this kind of i mean if you go back and you know when biden declared for the campaign i kind of wrote this theory of the case for why he win or lose and i think number one away might lose that he is old and overtime perceptions about his electability might erode and those two things hand in hand at their reinforcing another. I think is significantly risky for biden all right well. Let's leave it. There nate thank you.

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