The Skeptics Guide #808 - Jan 2 2021

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Everybody cara santa maria. Howdy jay novella. Hey guys evan bernstein. Goodbye twenty twenty. So we're all we're all still fucking twenty twenty five here in between night but this is the first show of twenty twenty one the airing in january january second so this is going to be our first episode of twenty twenty one or listeners. Or so lucky. They're already there. Thank you so jealous guys. Survive your holiday shenanigans. Yeah fine no. I did not the ghost thought i would. But i didn't pandemic christmas wherever he Didn't we had limited get togethers smaller groups. We didn't eat together. We just sorta away from across the room kind of thing. It was still good. It's good to have whatever you know. Social contact we could but keep telling everybody almost there just buckle down until we get this vaccine and then we could start live concert to creep back to normal now. We made it through the year now is not the time to to draw draw matches. I'm kind of proud of the fact. That i got my whole family without anyone catching covid knock wood and i would hate for that to happen right at the end you know right. Yeah definitely i'd like to think saved mom's life though because they're totally be said bob ball come on. Let's go to costco like mom. It's the height of the pandemic. He's a come on it'll be we'll be quick. I know you are not going for you. Bob protect your loved ones. And i hope the new strain of covid a damper on things for our about that in the in the show dive on that. Okay good spoilers now. Yeah but i don't know it's been a little frustrating. I have to admit to see how many people are like screw it. I'm just going to jump on a plane and go visit my family. You know and how many people really are just throwing the rule book out. Because somehow i guess. Biology doesn't apply during the holidays. But yeah now more than ever as when. We need to be vigilant but the fatigue is is it wears on people. It just does. That must be tough for you guys on the east coast though where you can't really be spending much time outside the editor missing whether it's been hot and cold even even though it's winter It's it's weird. How much the weather has changed. But yeah it sucks because you know we. We had a lot of people like friends. Come over that when we were like fifteen feet apart on my patio. That's out and i hate doing. I can't stand like videoconferencing. People i just feel like it. Just makes me more aggravated. But it's the only thing you've got right now. I know i do it. But i don't like it. Especially the more people like the harder. It is to communicate. Oh for share. Yeah it's easier if you keep it small or if you just go with it and say this is crazy. We're just gonna have a ton of people basically by june. We should be pub at part immunity swimming. That people are compliant enough. The i think the point out the health organization recently made this point that the the covert nineteen is probably not the worst pandemic. We're going to get this century right. This is really a dry run for the big bed one. That's probably still coming. That's much more like fatal time on the range of potential properties of a pandemic virus. This is not at the end of the spectrum. not even close so we this. This is good wakeup call to all right. What are our plans. What is our infrastructure to deal with. a really serious pandemic. And you know. I think part of that is public education. I think also part of that is getting our political shit together. We're not going to survive if we can't get our crap together that's the bottom line for this weekend at the world is too unforgiving now for a dysfunctional political environment. Like we have absolutely all right. Let's let's get serious guys. Let's talk about predictions. yeah this is. This is mmu mainly for fun. Relate to look back over the what psychics predicted and didn't predict for twenty twenty two. And we'd like to make a few points that first of all you know. Obviously we don't believe that psychics are real. there's no evidence that esp israel. The idea that you can see. The future is a violation of causality causing effect. And so it's basically impossible and of course it's not surprising that self proclaimed mediums and psychics or whatever whatever mechanism to using whether it's tarot cards or astrology are new asparagus Asala g whatever. The mechanism is that there is indistinguishable from either random guessing at best at best they do random guessing at worst there actually was than random guessing. They're just saying stuff to be entertaining to for the shock value or extrapolation while yeah but there are a few methods that they use to try to make. It seem like they're more accurate than they are. And we'll give examples of all of these things so one is shot. Gunning just make a bunch of predictions and then tout the ones that were correct. After the fact the other one is the vague prediction. That gives way more wiggle room that it may seem. This is common even in a personal reading says. Oh i see a red door you know. And it seems like a very specific prediction but actually it's so common that almost it's going to somebody. Almost everybody will find meaning for or i see a older person in uniform is sounds really specific but it's very very vague or they make predictions that are high probability earthquake and the others whatever hundreds of earthquakes thousands of crazy year. So it again. People don't realize how high probability one of my favorite is. I see an airplane. And there's red and the tail sixty percents something. I've airlines have read in their logo. But if you don't know the part is that they know statistics at the general public may not know how frequent names are whatever and so they can make high probability or shot. Gunning or very vague. Plenty of wiggle room kind of predictions and then they make the and then they use potok analysis or really just encourage the the people that are the target of their predictions to do all the heavy lifting in terms of making the connections and engaging in the cognitive errors the logical fallacies to make it seem more impressive than it is but one way to poke a hole into all of this is just a track the predictions and see somewhat objectively. How they did again. No one performs in such a way that requires an extraordinary explanation other than random guessing and a little showmanship so i reviewed a number of of psychics to see how they did. So one thing. I did was look at as many different psychics. Who made predictions about the twenty twenty election because usually in years where there's a big presidential election everyone out predictions and of course any one person's going to be random you know but but i should have counted up how they did in the aggregate. Almost no one that. I looked at predicted that that joe biden would win really These are only counting ones. That

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