Sydney isolated from rest of Australia as COVID outbreak grows

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Saw christmas wig. Norman and over the weekend we have seen. The sydney outbreak will the northern beaches outbreak really grow and restrictions of coming to place when we said good bata audience on friday nominee. Pretty optimistic that we were going to be out of now these thing before. Christmas is still feeling that way. I'm nervous i think. I don't think they're doing enough. The risk is that it overwhelms the contact tracing. It's just you. Don't you never know where it is. And yeah probably called it wrongly pepsi two racks about it but it is There are a lot of cases. They and they're not just in the northern beaches area when you look through the list of locally acquired cases there you there in sydney there in the north northern suburbs there in the eastern suburbs. not many. but there's just a few and you don't need many. This started with just one case from overseas. Probably aircrew of the prices. Speculating on somebody being in You'll getting exemption but either way it's from overseas and the system is broken down. Basically new south wales luck has run out so new south wales approach up until now has just been really intense contact tracing and that actually been pretty successful with keeping a handle on the cases. They're considering the work houses a few months ago. So the restrictions that they operating in the northern beaches a pretty tough. But there's still more that they could be doing. Isn't it well. I just think it's called smacking. But haven't mandated masks sydney white. I mean that's the first thing you do. You just tell everybody living in greater sydney soon as you walk how she wear a mask. I know you can't transmit it very well but taking a mask on an office you go inside just what soon as you go out you put on your mask and that means review go. You've got your mask on. It's cheap effective by seventy percent. You don't know where the viruses just mandate. I do not know why the new south wales government is so done on mask. Wearing how much of a problem is it that we still don't really know exactly how this outbreak kicked off. Oh it's huge that you know how well i think we know how tall it kicked off. Somehow from somebody from overseas the was negative until the tenth of december the genomic strongly suggests from overseas perhaps the united states and so it spread from somebody who's coming from overseas. The question was aircrew. Was somebody returning to from overseas somebody who was given exemption to go home and didn't stay at home. Who knows what the story might be. But it's definitely from overseas trouble is we don't know when and we're not really sure where we know where the super spreading events where the super spreading events in a bowling club and the avalon oursel- and there are other hotspots around hotspots places where people have been but essentially a very big dense people having a lot of fun good on them into there was a problem at that point but that was a super spreading event and from there. It spread outwards. And it's not just to satisfy curiosity that we want to know where these outbreak kicked off from. We need to know where the chink is armagh so that we can make sure that this doesn't happen again. Well no it's more than that. It's it's that's part of it but that's kind of done the track a little bit when you're dealing with an a pandemic that breaks out in clusters you've got to find all the clusters and you've got to find out where the cluster started so whilst you got to say well okay teagan you are at the avalon bowling club on on a certain date which was high risk and everybody that you've been in contact with. We want to know we actually want go before you know what happened. What were you doing two three four five days before then before you tested positive where where you and actually start the contact tracing back in time in history and what they're doing now is they're trying to do that new south wales back to the twenty third of november to give a bit of a margin beyond what they think might be. The first cases roundabout the first of december. So you to go back in time as well as get the immediate context and by there's going to be secondary context is going to be people who got first time around To second time around and it's out in the city and in other suburbs as well as outside the northern beaches and as we find out from victoria. it's very hard to ring-fence a suburb. But as we said i think in the last grown cast the northern beaches are fairly straightforward to ring fences the much more well defined than some of the really big in warfare suburbs in melbourne's northwest corridor. Really impossible but even so. It's still very very hard. It's a big densely populated area and ring-fencing is is only going to have a limited effect. You've really got to ring-fence greater sydney for a few days to see what's happening and maybe for a couple of weeks. It's christmas yes. It's tough but businesses already winding for christmas. The economic impact should not be huge. If you lock down sydney and just get this thing under control and not mess around. What we've seen from overseas is quite clear. And it's quite clear from victoria as well if you mess around and do a little of this a little bit of that. It doesn't work. it's simply does not work. You've actually got a fully lockdown victoria did. And if you do it you don't have to for too long every day. You wait can be a week at the other end and the other thing that we should be doing. Is speeding up vaccine approval. I know that we've said we can wait but now the face. We studies in the morning when victoria was in lockdown. But now the face re studies are in and it was fine to wait while we didn't have a problem we weren't there was no reason to just you know russian along because we could learn from overseas. But now that you've got this outbreak and it's big and is going to spread potentially through australia's biggest city and crippled potentially cripple the economy. There's a very good argument for getting going with immunization. So the tj good administration simply has to give a approval. I know go on about how they don't have an emergency approval process but that can be organized and they can they can be. There are ways for them to give urgent approval for this vaccine. It's not bureaucratically impossible and actually get the whatever they've got here in stock in terms of the five vaccine get into sydney's northern beaches and ring-fence immunization give it to healthcare workers their age care. Give it to the elderly and then you can give it to an efficient way to use it before it spreads. I realized we don't know that it's prevents. Transmission always really knows it prints disease but like everything else you just taking a chance that that it will prevent transmission and hope that it does and give it in that light. There's a lot that we do with this pandemic. we're not absolutely sure what what is the end of the individual things that work but you just gotta hit it. And now we've got a vaccine. We should hit in places like the uk and the us imperative to vaccinate is pretty obvious because the scale of the outbreak there is so massive in global terms. What's happening in sydney is pretty mine like does it still justify fostering vaccination he is because it could become big quickly quickly and be very difficult contain and create a of time now. This is a different public health. Aim this is much more like what. They did with smallpox with smallpox in poor countries massey. Muniz ation didn't work. It was very hard to implement it the way they eliminated. Smallpox was exactly this. This sort of ring-fenced vaccination you find a case and you immunize people around that person so that you you get this sort of halo. Immunized immunized effect and with the pfizer vaccine. You get fifty percent effectiveness at least with the disease with just the first does and within a few days and then one thousand four two or three three weeks so you. The effect is pretty quick. Would be an of faith that it prevents transmission. But it's worth ago. Why would we sit on this. Just go so at the moment the restrictions that are in place in new south wales in sydney are in place until wednesday night so basically the day before christmas eve is that going to be long enough or are we to say these extended while the restrictions are only on the northern beaches not greater metropolitan sydney. So that's not control the pandemic. I mean my. That's my prediction. It will not control the pandemic unfortunately spreading covid nineteen spreading. So that's the problem. I hope it will. Let's hope that contact tracers and not being overwhelmed and that the traces that are the cases that are popping up in south west sydney in eastern suburbs of city in the northern suburbs like hornsby they can pin them down the they're saying that they're traceable to the northern beaches outbreak but who they spread them to are the contact. Are they able to trace to them. So let's hope that they do the do contain it. But that's the so then. You've got the the lockdown simply there. You've got no mandated masks. They're just pleading with people to wear masks but just mandate masks sydney white right now. Just do it why. It's so frustrating that they're not doing that. Evidence based approach so christmas becomes unfortunately in sydney a superspreader event. Potentially if they haven't sorted this out and you're really done to very low levels of new cases where adly quickly quickly if you're not very low levels of new cases. They can't afford to allow christmas to go ahead with big family occasions. Otherwise it's going to go nuts unfortunately so the other thing that we really don't know much about yet he's exactly who's who when it comes to these outbreak and that was something that we were quite critical of the victorian authorities about when they were grappling with. The outbreak is new south. Wales being transparent enough well looking at the data. They're giving it is much easier to understand. There were lots of times in victoria. Had no clue whether we're talking about change. During the day the definitions were awed. Here you can see the breakdown you can see where the cases are. You can see where where there's locally acquired but they don't know where the sources. I think it's two or three at the moment is a little bit of discrepancy from the press conference and what they've published since the press conference. Yesterday there were two at press conference soon to be three on the table by today. I'm not sure we haven't had time too early for us to luke. Why would why we record this so nasty question. It does seem more transparent but what's lacking is public health measures in the community to control it and give the contact tracers a break and let them follow it through contact tracers but no matter how good the are if you get too large numbers of cases they get overwhelmed and getting extremely tired whereas masks would help just reduce that spread that little bit. That might make a difference. Yeah it's a really critical a couple of days in the lead up to christmas. But we're going to be keeping you informed but that's all we've got time for today

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