Why 2021 will be an even bigger year for coronavirus

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But a lot of the people who are testing positive people who are already in quarantine in isolation we kind of feeling like it. It's not yet. But has new south wales more or less nile. The sydney outbreak have christmas and christmas under reasonably relaxed circumstances. You did have a massive gathering on eastern suburbs breach at bronte. Beach will only see the results of that in five to ten days time. But it's looking okay is still perplexes. Me that the premier of new south wales and the health minister are digging in refusing to mandate masks when that would give them an extra degree of security. I mean you had people the other day swarming. All over on boxing day swarming over the shops. There were some mask wearing but not as much as you'd hope and it would just be such a small thing to go to mandatory masks. You sort of need it to be a rule so that people follow it so that you get that mess coverage that you need for it to be effective. The other thing that i thought was interesting that they mentioned in the press conference yesterday was that some of the people who had testing positive had tested positive on ten or eleven of the isolation actually quite light in the isolation and that just goes to the varying incubation periods of this virus five days is average but it can go eight ten fourteen sometimes even longer than fourteen very. It's very small percentage of the golden fourteen. And then as we've said many times a corona cast your false negative rate right at the beginning of the infection is really quite high. Could it be could be anything up to eighty percent but then goes down to a low roundabout eight days and what you're seeing here is the false negative rate getting done pretty low as the infection proceeds in some people and it's just prudent to watch to see whether or not people are still negative as they come out of that chelation period. We've actually got a question from someone who is in quarantine or was at least when they wrote this letter to us. Lazy saying You norman and also the primary of new south. Wales urge people to celebrate christmas outside. But what about the quarantine is who have no fresh air for fourteen days and are relying on many hotel ventilation. Is it safe for them. Depends on the movie hotel. The ventilation has been a problem in some of them. And i think in some hotels they've try to fix up the ventilation so that is as it can be. But there's no guarantee in this the problem is if you're in quarantine and you're taking outside. That creates risk as they showed in victoria. So unfortunately you do have to remain confined to the room tough though that may be and question from phillip corinthian as well phillips making the comment that you say politicians talking about noncompliant behavior as being disappointing or surprising but He sort of going well. Why don't you just put them in jail. Where the regulations that there to make people comply with With regulations the problem here is coercion does not always work. They find that out in victoria. We mentioned this before wherever they please surrendered a supermarket. They arrested a woman. If you remember rightly And then they realize that you just alienate the community by too much coercion. You've got to bring the community along with you. That's what's happened in the northern beaches. It's not perfect. Didn't happen in suburbs of sydney over the christmas period. But you really just go to try and bring people with you and for really agree. Jesus offenders then you might have to find them or do something stronger. Yesterday they were talking about a woman who escaped quarantine in western australia and serious finds a waiting car but apart from the odd case. You just can't be seen to be too heavy-handed about this. You've got to bring the community with you. This many people in quarantine associational coming for testing like literally tens of thousands of people coming forward for testing. It seems a little unfair to focus on the very few people who aren't doing the right thing when so many people That's right and then. This is the problem of behavioral economics. If you like which is that if you think. The norm is misbehavior. Then you will change your behavior towards the norm. We we like to. Our behavior is typical of other people's with a few exceptions and therefore if all we're doing is broadcasting bad behavior actually the behavior of the community will drift towards bad behavior whereas if you focus on the positive and say the vast majority of people in new south wales during the right thing that becomes the norm and we do it. The same thing goes for just changing the subject from covid nineteen to say obesity. The more we say. Obesity is accused problem. Forty percent of people are obese or whatever. The number happens to be at that particular time people who are putting on weight thing. Oh well relatively normal. It's not a problem with being obese. Might not like it that much. But that's the way it's going whereas the actually say the majority strains are not obese and feeling gooden so on and so forth then you will tend to think. That's the norm and drift towards that so changing your behavior in that sort of form. And that's and that's how it works here to forcing you to hard doesn't work is the same the case with masks then like we were saying before that if you make the mandatory and people are wearing them then people just wear them well there is a there is a singing promoted by some people in healthcare. Which is there is a. There's something that you just do. It and mandatory mask wearing is adjusted. It's an easy thing to do You're not restricting people's behavior you're just asking them to wear a mask so it's not too onerous and therefore it's a reasonable thing to ask it's mandatory to others. We'll give him the is ls episode for at least a couple of weeks unless something big happens and we will be back if it does. Norman what sort of mindset show be should we be taking into two thousand twenty one. Well let's start with the so-called uk strain ovo people in britain. Are you jacking up with the uk strain. It's like people saying that. The krona viruses the china virus. So that feeling anxious about that anyway. There is a strain. I identified in south east of england which we saw yesterday in a preprinted that it looks as though the estimated increase in transmission ability. If you like is about fifty six percent not seventy percent for started. It doesn't look as though it's increasingly virulent in other words during more damage or even less damage to people and it. He's slowly taking over. In terms of the prevalent virus in that part of england and will probably start moving there and maybe even overseas once border. Start coming down. So there's not to panic about the comment in this. Pre print is the control of this virus. You've variant is the same as before it's lockdown. Actually it's a serious lock down the predict from their modeling that in the uk they won't control this variant with. Half-hearted lockdown measures is going to be the full thing including universities in schools. They predict unless britain does that. It's not going to be able to control this new variant given its increased contagious nece. Don't nothing i'd say. Twenty twenty one is what's for vaccines. The astra vaccine comes in and reports better effectiveness with new dozing van. We're in good shape and australia. And because we manufacturing it here but if they are stuck around sixty two percent. Australia has a major problem on its hands with a second rate vaccine and to acquire early doses of the vaccine from pfizer or moderna. So that we can be prepared particularly for clusters where if new clusters arise. We can immunize healthcare workers or even experiment with what we talked about before and chromecast ring vaccination but the astra vaccine is for australia's one to keep an eye on because if that doesn't pan out in the next few weeks to be in a highly effective vaccine. Australia's got a problem because we have a second rate vaccine on our hands. And the thing. I'll say for twenty twenty one. I'd love to leave you with a positive sense is that we've really got to begin for twenty twenty. One is going to be a long time before this comes under control and for most of two thousand twenty one. We are going to be at risk in australia from overseas. importation of virus from corona virus fatigue. Which i'm sure many people are feeling already. So we've just got to keep our vigilance. Keep our borders strict and hope that the vaccine gets in early and we can vaccinate as quickly as possible so that we get this under control and hope that those vaccines do prevent transmission. Those are the things to watch out for. And we're just gonna take a deep breath and digging for twenty twenty one absolutely but you've got to say that in terms of globally australia's going into twenty twenty one in a really good position competitive many other places in the world. It's really fantastic. And so as new zealand and conceive from south korea are fragile that can be sued. Just go to maintain our vigilance. Not rest on our laurels. But we've done well. Well

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