Kevin Rudd on anarchy in the post COVID-19 world order, and could stable democracy be a reality in Iraq?
Former Prime Minister Kevin right on the geopolitical consequences of the pandemic. He predicts the coming post covered. Anneke plus Iraq believe it or not. It's future looks brought today than it has an any point in the past Dick. I'd stay with us for my chat with Linda Robinson from the Rand Corporation. She'll tell us while we should not give up on Baghdad's fragile. Democracy Corona virus continues to take a toll on the health of nations around the world. One thing has become clear the winners and losers not who we might have expected a year ago. The virus is taking an uneven and unpredictable. Course through the world defying. I usual assumptions about power and resilience. Some small poor countries being left relatively unscathed all powerful prosperous nations. I've been ravaged. So what does this mean for global order and for the strategic robbery between China and the United States? Will everything change or is the virus? Mealy accelerating trends that were already in place. Former prime minister of Australia. Kevin Rudd is the President of the Society Policy Institute in New York. He's written an essay in the most recent issue of Foreign Affairs magazine in New York. It's called the coming postcode Enki and he joins me now. From Queensland's Sunshine Coast Kevin Rudd. Welcome back to between the lawns. Good to be with you on between the lines. Now you'll recent essays titled The coming Postcode Anneke Y Anneke. You're good real turns color of international relations you would know that realists assume that. Anneke is in fact the natural state All the International Society of states rent was Headley Bull who wrote about this crowd along time ago and Australian realist and Australian realist. Ten within the real documents that order actually represents the exception rather than the rule So why do I argue this I argue it because the current order as we've done since forty five is underpinned by and large by US geopolitical pound Gio economic power secondly That's become challenge at least by China Thirdly the Cova crisis has turbo charge The hit on American real and perceived power. But there's a full factor as well. Which is the impact which the Cova crisis has on China's Powell not least the damage to its economy the flow through effect to its ability to spend on the amounts of money on its military and on the belt and road initiative example but more importantly international perceptions of China in the developed in the developing world. So where do we end up? We end up not with The same old order as in the past but a slow and steady drift towards more anoc order. We're both China and the US damaged and the institutions of global governance with the UN. The will bank the National Monetary Fund the G. Twenty etc become increasingly the terrain for geopolitical battle. Between these two wounded POWs a K. Sunday the country's the victory he but some analysts say that China's heavy handed approach eccentric lockdowns violence. That's been a political win for Xi Jinping in Matt strengthened the Central Authority of the communist regime. How would you respond to them? Well let's look at That argument within China itself. There's been a huge hit on the accompany And as a result of that China will have its worst gross numbers twenty twenty the Ted in over half a century since the end of the Cultural Revolution almost That is huge. It undermines She Jinping's China Drain which was One pillar of which was for China to quadruple. Its G. D. DP by twenty twenty measured against two thousand levels this single year of itself. Economic non-performance blows a hole amidships in that and then secondly on top of that. Tom You've got the problem which arises in terms of internal political debates within China so and I think some growing levels of resistance to Xi Jinping's on leadership and finally as I mentioned before The blowback around the world in terms of the economic damage To economize both developed and developing causing a big question mark to a rise in terms whether China has in fact being the risk to the world's best friend because of the outbreak of this virus. So these factors I think. Qualify the overall argument you hear from some the China's authoritarian model in managing the crisis domestically translates into a geopolitical win the China internationally. I don't think that necessarily holes walk conversations. Do you think heaven. I going on right now in Beijing over China's place in the world I mean is the division division over this so-called Wolf Warrior this is the and diplomacy we often hear about a division between that Wolf Warrior. Diplomacy versus say China's desire to promote soft power. Chinese politics in some respects is not dissimilar to elements of politics. We and other countries. That is you find nationalist. Ten internationalists you find a local ists globalists' you find audio logs versus as it were reformers and pregnant at this and so the as political system while it's Control by Xi Jinping's leadership still has all these tensions and personalities within it so the debates now I think are of a twofold. How do we allow this to happen? In the first place what failed in terms of the processes insistence China put in place after the Saas Crisis of two thousand and three to prevent a pandemic or epidemic as it was then from happening again. The second debate is how the Hillary you get the economy back together again given the China a economy with forty percent of Gdp comes from the traded six or the economy and International. Trade is being blend. Bits by this crosses and the other debate again between nationalists internationalised is the one. You've just touched on the Tom. Which is China's wolf worried diplomats out there launching attacks against any critique of China's performance On the one hand defend the party's legitimacy and on the other hand older more seasoned diplomat saying this isn't actually contributing much to the improvement of China's global image those discussions and debates underway. At the moment we're talking about this wolf warrior diplomacy. What do you make of China's recent boycotts threats of boycotts of Australian Exports Bali? Beef what what's going on well as I've said in other recent interviews since those public statements by the China's ambassador Australia it's unacceptable in my view for any ambassador accredited to any country to receive public threats against the host country In City five years of more dealing with the Australian China relationship I don't recall previous Chinese ambassadors of having done that not by any Australian diplomat ever having done that irrespective of the crisis of the day with was ten on all the things that I went through when I was in office etc so I think as a matter of shall we say diplomatic practice. What occurred then was regrettable as as being some of the hotline commentary. Which emanated from the Chinese nationalist media? the bottom line is however the Chinese nationalists have seen The effectiveness All the some of these sorts of measures when applaud various countries in the past sorts of economic leverage which China replied to no way out to no way through the Nobel Prize Committee Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to a famous Chinese dissident And I've also seen how those Economic Leverage points of work with various of the Europeans. So this is not alien to the Chinese playbook my argument about China's Australia's management of The relationship in prison is that if the Australian government's of the view and a view I in general support that there needs to be an independent international inquiry as to the origins the virus transmission of the virus notifications to the WHO and threw them to the world community etc. Then again to put that Ford isn't as trade in government and then do some work on it. I get a few other governments to come along with you an advance that through the multilateral machinery which rather than just blow it out as a thought bubble That's the way which you do. Real things in the international community rather than I. Fear sometimes pitching a diplomatic initiative primarily for domestic political leverage into straighter. What complicates matters? Further is president trump's theory that the virus was leaked from a lab in Wuhan and raises the question. Why would China agree to enquiry without losing this between the lines on? Abc Radio National. The familiar voice. You're hearing is former prominence to Kevin. Rudd is now president of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York. We've been talking about his article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs magazine. Kevin we'll talking about China and how it's paid a price as a result of this current ivars. Let's turn to the United States. How badly damaged is the use in your judgement? I mean we'll recover reasonably quickly With a change of administration in November or does the damage go deep. Perhaps too deep for recovery has been deep damage politically. The the. The House is a divided house within the United States. Those of us who have followed. Us politics of the many years have rarely seen it This divisive and that actually is a real factor in terms of constructing a post presidential election national consensus on how America engages the World. And the future. American politics has become so binary including on America's own future will view on the economic damage. It's huge. This is the biggest hit on newest economy at least since nineteen forty-six and the recovery from the war and probably since the depression the end of the depression and thirty three So this takes a while to recover But the American economy know a history of resilience. Look what happened after the global financial crisis? But well I was going to make the point to is enormous capacity for change and renewal. I mean you think about its recovery from the civil war that oppression in Vietnam. You being a bit too pessimistic. Kevin. Well I live in the United States and I actually listened to the debate on back in Australia now and when my American interlocutors Republican and Democrat Friends of mine over twenty years who A positive let's call it. The Foreign Policy National Security Policy Machinery signed that it's become increasingly hard to forge consensus these days across the aisle on America's behavior in the world That is a real issue. Then it's not just my external analysis it's part of the internal analysis within the US itself. Do I think the United States can come through the domestic political Malays and the Economic Destruction? Which has occurred? Yes I do. Because it's remarkably resilient country But I think a precondition is that We see a Democrat. Win this November it's not that. I am a A cheerleader for Joe Biden. Personally I barely know the man Bought he's lucky to put together a mainstream Competent Foreign Policy and National Security Policy Tame as opposed to Frankly the chaotic nature of the trump administration on most foreign and national security policy questions. And that I think is necessary for America to rebuild. Its alliances abroad rebuild. Its credibility in the eyes of the risks of the will and to overcome what has been an extraordinary period where America rather than taking the lead in the global recovery From the virus both in public health systems and economic terms as simply being missing in action and in fact the unable to contain it's the damage domestically