Coronavirus corrections and the rise of remote work
Let's talk about the markets. There's no avoiding this. If you track technology if you track startups venture capital all that good stuff you see what happens to the public markets and in the last couple of days. It's been a complete shellacking. I think it's pretty much the only way to put it. We haven't seen declines at this magnitude in some time and it's gotten everyone in the talking about what's going on and what might happen next. Danny just giving you a gut check to the listeners. And all of our friends out there. How surprised are you by this eventual and kind of finally happened moment in the US stock market completely? Not surprised I mean I I I. We're not allowed to actively trade but I did trade my 401k portfolio into a money market fund. Like two weeks ago. So I'm quite pleased with the The the choice I actually sold at literally the peak a couple of weeks ago and so so I feel vindicated like my. My retirement is secure all five hundred dollars of it. I was GONNA say this is not actually a show designed to. Let's Brag but I'll give you three points for that one. I'm doing the old fashioned like long term investing. Keep your money where it is. Let it do whatever thing. So we'll see who's right in the end for people just catching up though if you're not active in the US stock market stocks have fallen tremendously over ten percent last couple of days and that was is really been kind of following the US news cycle so as the corona virus. The kind of thing that has come out of the disease world. I'm not a doctor that's best. I can do has become more prevalent both internationally closing more borders impacting more economies heritage anymore trade routes and also popping up here at home. Concern has risen. Also we're beginning to see impacts of the lengthy shuttering of large parts of China reflect it in trade and supply chain disruptions companies like Microsoft booking holdings which ones booking dot com and utanics have highlighted issues in their revenue and earnings coming up so the the slowdown is here after weeks of talking about any kind of expecting it and finally Goldman which you've all heard of they forecasted that. Us companies will have zero growth in twenty twenty which is pretty damning because growth is kind of what powers the stock market's expansion and that's kind of the the bad news. Sas companies are also taking a hit any. Am I missing any Any bad news here. Obviously people are dying Thousands of people are being marooned hundreds of millions in China and around. The world have been quarantined so those are the headlines but I I think what's interesting is is. There's there's two patterns here one is I want to focus in on zoom or let's call Zoom Zoom Zoom. The video conferencing software. That also helps us. Equity is having the best time of its Goddamn effing life so they they have doubled the stock value in just the last couple of weeks from the low sixty S in early December to about one hundred fourteen as a recording the show so eighty eighty dollars per cent and its market. Cap is now at almost thirty. Two billion dollars and I I I'm kind of annoyed by this. But it's Kinda funny just to point out that therefore pe ratio is four hundred. Thirty five right now and to Yahoo Finance has them as overvalued but I do think I do think the virus I mean the upshot of this is that because all the flights are being canceled. You know a ton of conferences. We just heard today that F. Eight the big facebook developer's conference were hearing. People are pulling out of the game developers conference. Sf next month GTC. There's even talk about Tokyo Olympics later this summer possibly being cancelled. I think we're actually going to see a huge gift around remote work. We talk about remote work. We've seen a lot of companies in recent justed around in a company. That's doing like remote conferences. But I think the virus is really going to force companies and decision makers to really ask like. Do you need to fly to do the sales meeting? Do you need to fly to this conference to learn something? Do you need to drive to a seminar and I? I do think we're going to see a shift in the economy where people go actually remote. We're Kinda works okay. We're we have tools and and and it's changed a lot last decade. Yeah I mean won't people might not know this but tech crunch itself as relatively remote I organization and my work history has been majority remote. I worked for with the next web for my first four years as a journalist and they were based in Amsterdam and I was in Chicago and then SF. I never went to the actual office once in that time period so to me this is relatively normal but I think for a lot of folks. He's always been discussed point. Not a re- realize reality so I'll be curious to see if that does work up. Certainly zoom other future of products and other companies. That kind of service people that are not in the same room might do well. I would say given zooms rapid value appreciation that racine's active trading as opposed to fundamental value. But certainly it's a stock to keep in mind if you haven't caught up on what's going on with red at Wall Street beds and the Stock Market. Take a look. It's kind of fun if you WANNA get a window into how the chat rooms of the nineties that helped pump stocks have now turned into semi closed at four. It's quite adventure zoom. I'm not saying it's part of that pump and dump world but it reminds me of some of the value appreciation. We've seen at other stocks that have him in the last couple of months. I think you know this is a question around Tesla. We brought up in a bunch of other stocks. Might take away from that is if you're trading over the counter OTC stocks penny stocks. Okay fine there's not a lot of liquidity. You can actually do a lot on the ticket and whatnot stocks. Let's zoom as an example thirty two billion market CAP company. You have to have a lot of money to move that share price one way or the other. If you're maybe maybe everyone's long and therefore like almost no one's willing to to sell and so therefore your your price gets kind of moved higher and higher but my my assumption is that that's not true and certainly for most of these big tech companies like Microsoft near trillion dollar market cap company. Like ain't no one can you. Can you can be you know. Warren Buffett Go. I'm going to buy the whole stock and the stock price will early move. That's the scale. I think we're talking about love the shares so it might change as the Margaret hits volatility and and whatnot but to me. It was blown way out of proportion. Well I hope so. That would mean there's less manipulation the stock market in values and more reasonable. So let's hope you're right but it is a fun story regardless but let's move along away from the main public markets to talk about a company that wants to join public company world which door dash after quite a long time of hearing to this company will go public kind of a needed win for both. Softbank And the Vision Fund Jordache filed confidentially to go public. And Danny. I want you to tell us the difference between filing to go public and filing privately to go public yes for companies that are under about a billion in revenue the jobs act plenty twelve allows startups to file basically there s one without having to do it publicly so generally speaking in the process you file publicly which means you literally to the web and then the SEC gives you feedback on that dock. You might make changes some some individual if you remember like what was a community adjusted revenue or some of these may not it was community adjusted so it was adjusted. Eba which is already super chested. Right brave ever GonNa give back on that. This purchase designed to encourage companies to go public earlier at least get feedback on there. S ones and to do it in such way like if if the numbers don't turn out well or some things get blocked by the SEC. You have time to sort of recover without kind of embarrassing yourself in public. The reason we actually find out about most of these confidential s ones that the bankers know that they're going to become real public wants and so the file confidentially then leaked to the press and go. Gee someone somewhere has filed something things about this one. Why would the companies do this? Well if you let these file privately when they're smaller it lets them a decrease in the amount of risk they take on making the on ramp to public markets have been easier and the number of companies has fallen sharply in the last. I forget the timeframe like ten twenty years. So this is a way to help. Bolster that number again and also with if you recall back to Osama's private IPO file or private direct listing filing. I guess technically they are putting out press releases saying we've done this. So they're they're filing privately telling you publicly they will go public but it's private for now and that's very twenty twenty but it's also. Kinda key dynamic to understand you look at the IPO market for this year. Now announcing your stealth fundraise. Yes very much like saying we have cool things over here. You may not see them. You're exactly it's the it's the sneaker drop it's yes it's the sneaker. That's the thing when shoes come out for a short period of time. I'm not cool. I turned thirty. I lost all ability to have coolness anymore. Now We're both in our thirties. Now which I think means that will never be cool again on door dash though Danny mentioned that if you have less than a certain amount of revenue you can file privately. Keep in mind that door dashes right about the sides so we have a suspicion that this was kind of the end of the time period in which they could file privately. Because they're about to be to Lart so let's get into the numbers and talk a little bit about what we have here. The company is worth around thirteen billion. But which is a large number not the most valuable private companies have ever seen we work at its Peak Uber Pre IPO. Those were both larger but certainly a decca corn and evaluate company. The company was valued at one point. Four billion in two thousand eighteen to give you understand how fast it's appreciated in value and that is driven by tons and tons of private capital often come in through the lens started after lengthy accounts of Division Fund but the company has attracted capital firm Kleiner and sequoia throughout its history. So a lot of backers. Put a lot of money this company for different reasons at different stages. But it's welland and it has some comps so we're not talking about a company completely abstract Danny. Just run us through some quickly and then we'll talk about its results. Yeah so I think the the the big cop here is so you know Oberlin public. We now have a lot of data from ubereats which is one of its sub business lines but in Q. Four thousand nine hundred ending December.