Death by a a thousand cuts


Hello and welcome to episode two hundred eighty three of ducks lines and destinations. I am Stephen. Seagraves joined by Seth Miller and false mood. Gentlemen our healthy healthy for now for now. Yeah you guys you guys like stocking up yet your toilet paper because I have my four years of toilet paper. We POSCO UP here. No it should be there now. Costco's somewhere down in Massachusetts. That's not true. There's Nashua is there forever but I remember like an hour away so I think I think maybe the the Massachusetts will not be closer. Because we're there on the highway yet dependent independent where you are but neither is national 'cause missiles go to shop tax-free oh yeah makes sense. So so we do you. Have you set? You have a costco membership. Never have that would be a factor. Yeah you costco. You can buy a member man trader. Joe's is good. Cook those There's a trip just down the way we are by talking to the grocery store here the pricing is right. They textures as right. I prefer I enjoy. It's It's a one ply but quilted one. Lots of interesting sort of hybrid choice. It comes from It's an actual habit for this. I can't put talking about this on the show. Our House in New York had a hundred year old piping plumbing our retrofit once or twice but very bright piping and plumbing and the two black clogging it so we had to find a comfortable one ply so that I didn't have to keep Snaking the toilet and I've just stuck with that brand since New Place similar age. I don't feel like you know testing that experience again. So it was like self-preservation really got understand and and it seems that we are curious. I have plenty of. Actually I buy it at target or at the grocery store depending on. Who's telling US sale that week and had bought two jumbo packs? Just because we have enough space to store. I bought that in late January so we have plenty of but not not because of this just because that's how I buy it normally. I mean that's typically what we costco. It's like you buy like your two months. Supply routes just about two months typically a familiar with the usage rates. Because we both work from home anyway so the whole life. Nobody's doesn't change our consumption adding so should we just pivot and go the Japanese Muslim? Nobody's I'm not a fan on. I am not do feel that. It's more of a female thing to truly appreciate the We'll give my wife credit when earlier this evening. Were finishing up dinner. She says is it true. That men really don't wash their hands in the bathrooms. Generally may is that why we take so much longer. The bathrooms than men because Russia. Washing our hands. Anything else and I had to give some credit for. That might be right. You know from what I've seen Been are terrible at washing their hands in the restroom I told you guys the story of the gentleman that I saw at O'hare wearing a full face mask who use the urinal and not just a face mask us like a painter. Space Mass like the the the two big nozzles on each side and then use. The restroom interceded walk out without Washington's Darwin. Awards folks keep it simple stupid. I think One of the things that we need to talk about his just general airline cuts so that's kind of what this corona virus scare and a passenger lull. I would call it or depression I would call it is is really triggering rights Yeah I mean. We're we're recording this on evening and sorry we're late again. This week. We had another guest plan with special thoughts and a reason they were late but that fell through so But you know one of the. I'll say benefits of being a little late to the game. This week is that we've actually had the experience of the J. P. Morgan Aviation Conference Today. And it was a virtual event so she goes to show you just how serious the situation is a investor conference where typically they bring the senior executives in from all the airlines in each hour two or half an hour to present to gather groups and then they do a meet and greet private meetings in a dinner at Temple. Big Thing Quality Boondoggle Was done for airlines by teleconference today. So I if that's not a metaphor. I don't know what is and and the news from that. Teleconference was not much cut. Cut cut cut cut cut everybody except for Alaska Airlines. That spoke today on and it was the. Us carriers that you'd think of minus southwest. I'll spoke so jetblue and bigger Mina South West All spoke today all said that They were cutting service and most of them had announced it some way some form Alaska Airlines is not cutting margin April but currently has a three and a half percent cut in. May and that's sort of the telling thing is like they're pulling for May they they see the future demand not recovering for a long time United is Scott. Kirby said he thinks it's eighteen months before demand returns to its pre corona virus level. So call it like whatever we were at the end of December but he also said SARS was a fourteen month cycle and they're they're extending a little bit so and if if I was to look at what like I add his out from SARS. Their version of the chart came back much quicker. I don't know visit. United was slower or the industry was really slower than I added. Sort of lying about the numbers are pushing version that they liked But there's some interesting things to consider there but everybody's cutting American pulled ten percent or seven percent of domestic going forward and a bunch of international cuts and international cuts are going longer term than really interesting to me there. This isn't a week or month even at a time anymore. You know going back to vases comment from a few weeks ago. Where there's where he said they're cutting month we at time with each passing week. Another month is scheduled. That's really where we're at now in this. Is that simply? Think lack of demand tree backup. If the corona virus was to disappear to the airline seat those months as the time it would take to get demand back to where it was. Yeah it they they just. They don't see the demand coming back a lot of references. Essentially there are some differences of opinion. There was a lot of things that were some of it. Some differences of opinion a lot of comments about the travelers still today are all still spring break travel that was previously booked into people. WanNa throw away. But that future bookings aren't happy as much aren't happening as much So that's part of it. There's also the question of can you induce travelers by dropping. There's enough and Scott Kirby from United's basically said dismissive manner said I didn't even realize there's another theory. Then people could still be convinced to travel if it's cheap enough. Because they were worried about travelling because they want to get sick At the same time Alaska Airlines and everything said you know. We said something like that. We ran a sale last week just to test the waters and people buy tickets and me. I'm more than we expected. Know What's interesting? I was looking airfares. Given how empty allegedly empty flights are airfares are still high. Yeah and we can close in far out how far less than seven days. Yeah you would think like if you've got empty flights now you'd start filling them but they're not so the one comment that. I think it was American. I think Doug Parker said they did a similar thing where they released some of their. You'll controls but it was still focused on greater than seven days out so they're still not. Bush is interesting because I think the theory there is business. Travelers aren't traveling and if they do decide to travel they'll pay whatever it costs they're still trying to pick up some of the uncertain leisure travel but not willing to give up business revenues where it might happen

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