Rick, Daniel Jurgen, Thomas Edison discussed on Wheels
That. Email. Stevens email should have done it, but I forgot it was going to play today. So Daniel, your organ is an oil analyst, and he's one of the smartest guys out there. Additionally, He's great historian of business, and he wrote the ultimate book on the entire history of the oil industry, and it's still It's called the prize, and it's still in print all these decades later, because if you care about the modern times and what actually Was the energy that propelled modern times its oil industry and he had it all. It's great stuff. But in this he's talking about the future for electric cars. And he goes just a decade and a half ago, CEO of General Motors Rick Wagoner. Observed Larry Burns that time head of GM research and strategy that not many industries stay the same for an entire century. But the automobile industry had so far been the exception. Gas fuelled run by internal combustion engines, four wheels. What's the carve the next 100 years going to look like now? Notice, he said a decade and a half ago. That was the exact same year. They'd asked me to write an outside review on hydrogen fuel cell cars that GM and I didn't take it as seriously as I should have. But I dashed off nine pages didn't even send it to my editor. So who knows how many mistakes were in it? But it basically was history of GM Alfred Sloan, the legendary chair of General Motors. While GM did have research and design studios on many things, Alfred Sloan wouldn't spend the money. As he kept telling his people. Sooner. Everybody else going to spend money on this stuff. And when they figured out will simply by the patent rights and make it a case in point. Safety glass. You know, everybody expects that on the car today, but people forget in the earliest days I had tempered glass. You could have an accident. And your glass shattered and you had massive glass shards all over you. So we knew. And remember this also in the day without really good roads, so you could be going down the road and your buggy. Here to mud pit on that dirt road after rainstorm, and you could twist the car and shattered the glass and when windshield So Sloane says somebody else. Let them spend the money on creating a glass of won't do that. And we'll by the patent rights. Well, it was the Ford Motor Company that came up with it. And GM simply started making it too. And that was hydrogen fuel cell cars going back to the story. Daniel Jurgen recently was talking to Wagner about that conversation, and Rick said I was asking if we were starting the auto industry today. How would it be different? Because we're fundamentally building the same product we made over 100 years ago. And so automakers is Daniel points at her committing tens of billions of dollars over the next decade to electric vehicle development. They're shifting a vast industrial and consumer ecosystem. There is so basic to the economy, this can do nothing but face big challenges. They said. The result, he says, the result of the share of new cars that wound up being EVs by 2030. Probably is going to be no more than 25%. If everything goes well. In any case, he talks about 2000 and eight and the first Tesla Roadster. He said. The time it looked like a novelty car, If you recall, I think it was a body by lotus and suspension, wasn't it? But he points out. It was also over $100,000. But here's how Tesla came to be. Five years earlier, a young electric vehicle enthusiast JB Stroble, had lunch with a guy named Elon Musk in Los Angeles. He was trying to pitch Elon Musk, uh, on an electric airplane. When Musk had no interest in that whatsoever, he switched over to electric car. The original idea championed by Thomas Edison more than a century ago. Here's the thing. Thomas Edison wanted great. A car for the masses. He's the one the first said that an electric car by the way. And here's electric battery was actually light years ahead of its time. Nothing like we have today, but it was light years ahead of its time. When he never got that electric car off the ground. Henry Ford, who would later become his friend stole his line about the car for the masses. Put it on his model T I digress. In 2000 and eight musk jumped on the idea. And some years later must said that without that luncheon that day, Tesla wouldn't exist Basically. That car was over 100,000 and it was a disaster. If you doubt that Google George Cloney comma Tesla comma type in the F word. And see if that car wasn't a disaster. That was a Reuters story by the way. In any case, the Nissan Leaf came out in 2010. It predated the Tesla. General Motors came out with the Chevy Volt. By the way, my paper talking about maybe hydrogen fuel cell cars might be a reality in 2050. But if you think you're bringing it to market and another five years that's not going to happen. Um, GM followed up that with the Chevy bolt with a B in 2016. In any case he talks about the V shift is, in fact picking up speed. The European Union's proposing tough regulations on carbon dioxide emissions from cars made or sold in Europe that effectively bans the sale of new cars. With internal combustion engines after 2035. That's right. You can dial down your mandate for missions out of automobiles, and you can make it where internal combustion engines can't perform that way anymore. California, Massachusetts of announced also dates they want to get rid of it. In Shanghai, China, They offer free license plates for if you buy what they call a new energy vehicle, an electric car. If you buy a gas powered car in Shanghai, you.