Federal Reserve, Steve, Powell discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
I think the fed really got it right today because I feel like why move when you're going to get a lot lot lot more data by by July thirty and Steve. Touched on a lot of it. Plus, all the things that, you know, the G twenty and whether we have any kind of trade deal, also will really start to see earnings and to me, that's always the most important thing. This is a lot of noise around the most important thing, which is earnings, and what are the outlooks for the second half of the year. I think that to me is the most scary part. I you know, this is as worried as I've been I feel like we're say if a hundred percent priced in that we're is the side. If the economy does better than he has a Powell has a little bit of a of a safeguards. They doesn't have the race. So you have the economy doing better earnings doing better. So you still going to get the market rally if the Konami does it does worse than he can always cut. If trade a worse scenario where this market goes down. That makes no sense. There's one offs. Martin there's one offs. But can you put can you put any type of rationality on the bounce that we've seen from twenty seven to two in the SNP to now it's positioning people were so negative on the lows. Right. And now they had a catch up. Where where to position the other way volumes light inflation. There's no sign of inflation. The Phillips curve is dead. So you have global inflation nonexistent, Goldilocks is what you're saying. Man, I asked this question, and that is the last time we were at these levels on the S and P five hundred. How would you characterize the risk environment then versus now guy interesting? I mean, I don't think I think the risk exactly the same. The only thing that's changed. The commentary out of the Federal Reserve to me, this, pardon me closer. I think it's I'll push back on that. But okay, we can have we can agree to disagree. I think the only thing this changes affect commentary. So when I look at the quote unquote, smart money, and I, I would say that retail and folks that are long only in the wealth management, community and a big chunk if not the major chunk of the global asset base has actually been relatively Bush, but if you look at smart money, if you look at long short hedge funds, if you look at guys who are paid to basically assess risk, I think they've been badly short, maybe not net short, but they've certainly not been long. And if you look at one positioning of long short hedge funds word five year. We're five year lows in terms of net long position which tells me I actually think this could go a little higher. All right. So does the rally really need a rate cut and will we see one as soon as July? Let's bring in Tony Dwyer chief market strategist, a Canaccord Genuity Tony, great to have you with us. Should tell the audience remind them that your price target for the end of the year is twenty nine fifty. Yeah. Price target on valuation at this point in the year is kinda stupid, so we're focused on our thirty three fifty target for next year. And I think that might be a little bit too low as well. What happens between now and the end of next year to give us four hundred points to the upside inflation stays low. The fed gets easy to remember nine hundred ninety five analog it's playing out almost exactly from every angle that I can find it's almost exactly like that environment. So you don't go into a recession remembered that were up in different. I agree with most of the bears. Yes, the economy slowing it almost looks like it's going to go negative, that's the bull story. That's always been the bull story because it takes it takes rates down. And as long as you know, you're not going into recession that gives you upside and equities remember the average P E, multiple when cornflakes between one and three percent is nineteen times it was there for most to sixteen and seventeen..