Boris Johnson, Boris, Boris Chris Johnson discussed on Coffee House Shots
Vodafone. Hello and welcome to coffee has shots spectators daily cuts on Katie balls joined by James Who Saif and the Mail on Sunday columnist Dan Hodges judges now is beginning to look inevitable that Boris Johnson's be crowned the next prime minister in two weeks time but what of how he will govern as ministers Johnson and novelists to be in his cabinet there are other the factions keep competing for his approval is being predicted that Boris Johnson will have more of a court than his predecessors groups of courtiers offering rival advice he will listen to these groups and play them off so which groups are vying lying for Johnston's ear. Now I've written this week on coffee has about this that I can't eight but I'm sure my guest today we'll be able to add some of their own but just to run free them. We have the old retain us and these the Oh time parliamentary supporters of Boris Chris Johnson Big Ben Wallace Nigel Adams Jake Berry these are supposed to see being with him since twenty sixteen and when he didn't have such luck with his Tory dealership campaign and of stock for him pre thick and then we have the new kids on the block. That's people like Gavin Williamson. James Wootton have come for the two thousand eighteen nineteen efforts as Lucy the city hall crit people he will around Boris Johnson. Here's mayor of London expect to have a prominent road if he takes number ten will walden at Lissa then there's the European research group spoken a lot many times on Coffee House shots figures that Jacob Frey Small Mark Francois Brexit is who want to see that brexit delivered. There's team vote leave. Those burr shirts knows from the referendum campaign. There are the Echavarri as as we could call them carry Simmons that goes with Ben Idiots and then there are the men and women of government those figures Trenton surely have a place in the Boris Johnson Cabinet and finally team Crosby Texter Lynton crosby and what role he is or isn't playing so Dan to start with year I've listed for I think some of the groups how do you see the various groups fooling around Boris Johnson. I think he's very accurate described. The groups that are forming around Boris but thanks quite interesting to step back and ask white is that we do have so many disparate groups sort of jostling for the kings of the moment and I think the fundamental problem that Boris Johnson in is GonNa face is it there are no Johnson nights as as such Boris when he takes over is going to be in my the one of the most personally isolated or maybe politically isolated prime minister's we've had when when black took over he was obviously at the hall of a very extensive very well disciplined very sophisticated <hes> audie logical stroke political oh movement it to the same extent when David Cameron took over the camera Kenwright sits at spent a number of years planning their political strategy buying into the political strategy organizing around there politicals strategy. acidy Boris is not going to have any of the of that at at and actually the person I think who he reminds me of in a sense is is Theresa May and when to resume took over and was himself quite an isolated quite early early on within cabinet and more broadly politically and I think that's why we've got this. We've already we're already seeing at within the campaign there is already degree of factional infighting which which is less actually factional and more personal personal for Boris his ear and I think as we move forward that is can be potentially be a serious problem. James Degree that erotic chaotic court. I think it's worth remembering which is whatever the political wisdom of this. This is kind the vote Boris Johnson once he doesn't like being tied down to one source of political advice. He likes this OBE yeah. He likes to sit there. As kind of Sun King with these people can orbiting around him and he doesn't doesn't like to distilling simply choose to buy one group or whatever now you can argue with that. It's going to be a recipe for trouble in Downing Street Cetera et Cetera et Cetera but I think we see that he has deliberately chosen to have this kind of open open door policy towards people. He's chosen to stay in touch with multiple people I think back to when Obama won the Labor leadership and his aides took his mobile phone off him on the basis that you know all communication was going to have to come through someone no noon taking Boris Johnson's mobile phone him and indeed. I think he still is in communication. A whole bunch of people why taxed but is what I think the role of idealistic comes in which the idea of someone who brought us trust you know he's Old City Hall Chief of Staff Somebody who you can try and to manage this process but let me talk to report is going to pick run essentially instrumental reason which is the in the current political predicament they are in. He is the person you can get them out of this mess and that's that is essentially the mission. He's had on your if he fails. He is going to be even learned even most people in politics but if he's accedes it will create its own momentum now. Let me look at the various groups that assum I think he would say that they actually have the greatest influence when it comes to speaking birth Johnson getting what they want but it isn't always that way John which figures you think has the most wheel the most influence on Johnson you've written previously no males on about the fact there seems to be this official campaign rain behind Boris Johnson said to have actual press rose and then those seems to be team carry at times and that's carry Simmons his partner. He listened the in the ECO warrior group so in part because he has a fix on environmentalism. Yes I think that was is a quite a generous demarcation for carries role within tim bars. I think speaking to team within people within the official campaign they see her influences going <hes> quite merely that the sinecure of green issues. I have to have to be honest. I know I mean I think she is obviously going to be an influential figure within his administration or certainly as he's campaigned currently seems to be structured. She's going to be going to influential. I mean being entirely honest there is there. Is there a number of very. The senior people around Boris Johnson who are very concerned about Kerry Solomon's potential influence upon his administration that is something that a number of people in our giving active thought too about how that is manage going forward but I think more broadly to sort of broaden out from from carrying I mean I think James is touching. I think the reality is that each of the people that you listed will at various times have a significant degree of influence over Boris depending on the the the the moment I think so depending on the political reality of the moment I think there is no doubt that the biggest decision he's going to have to make how he integrates the G. and that that sort of very hard of course grind the Tory Pro Brexit euroskeptism into into his administration because as James said that Boris Johnson has one job at the moment and and that job is to bring back to the Tory fold those Tory voters have abandoned the Tory party before the brexit party I mean the reality is it is not Boris Johnson that has one Johnson this leadership election. It is Nigel ferrall. She was one Boris Johnson. This leadership election and the moment Boris Johnson's accession was secured with European elections where the tourists were were annihilated by for ocean the Brexit Party so I think in the short term that is going to be the biggest fundamentally see how does integrate that as I say that hardcore orgeon element into his cabinet into his government without completely alienating the more moderate elements of the company. That's okay by that James because I mean look various groups. There are some that have I suppose more likely to run into or against each other and you have European Research Group you have Jacob Frey small in duncan-smith has not been given an official role in the membership stage of the contest to have the grape epidemic of government and by that I mean people like Matt Hancock Vicious do not generate Lucy Fraser. You wouldn't really expect to have too much in common but the people who go to E.. G. Meeting yet the current behind the same candidate so g think you conceive reached wet. Boris Johnson can keep Steve Fake happy and also keep the minimum government happy. Will they be happy just to have a job. Even if the guy for this very hard brexit so I think the Panglossian view is Boris. Johnson puts no deal on the table Europeans side that he is despite having said it's a million to one chance he is serious about this is perpetual lay a concession offered up on the backstop bodies sufficient to satisfy the DP the reopen the put it in Borgeson declared a great diplomatic triumph brings it back to parliament I'm because it is Boris Johnson selling it because what you're saying about stage two of the process you you don't get all of L._G._B._T.. Whistled down and most of them vote for it and some more Labor M._p.'s vote for it because they genuinely worried about no deal this time and he gets a deal through and suddenly he's off to the races. The assaults come out of the BREXIT party balloon. He's a few is bat too. Pessimistic views one pessimistic view would be the E._U.. Causes Bluff and and he is left at that point having to do it or not and which point parliament steps in and essentially everything comes tumbling down. I think there was there was a big question about the e O._R._G.. And the split blitz in it but occurred on the third time but maize deal was bought for collins when figures like in duncan-smith Jacob rees-mogg abortion himself voted for the deal to get brexit one is steep acre amount Francois continue to. To invade against that there is an interesting question about web g own on how much they really because ultimately the only basically withdrawal agreement that has lost forever is the laxed up and in fact by Stop Stop lost forever. Would they consider forty nine billion to get out of the E._U.. Cheaper the price on with a lot of are other concerns fade away because of direction Washington was promising to go in face to of negotiations. I mean there was a very interesting question passionate. About what is the test to serve his cabinet is it a willingness to publicly say the U._K.. Is leaving over the forty first. Come what may we would like to be a deal. We will leave on television. I come what may with the story is that the test and you see people such as I'm the RUB beginning to move themselves towards that point of view or is the test genuinely believing but no deal would be fine Nazis attention. I mean there are some people close to to no the only people who are in the camp and other people's. You'll government won't be boarding basically it's it's better to say look if you're prepared to publicly and privately support policy that is enough and licking teaser cabinet when you look at the the various factions there are some pretty on M._p.'s in the parliamentary arena but he looked at the older tena so that group of amputee with peanut versions in for the long haul now back when it was unfashionable to save because Ben Wallace Nigel Adams Jake Berry Corner to a degree down at least big. It's GONNA expect to get cabinet jobs in baton because you'll see people maybe in Gavin Williamson and then again. We have two cabinet ministers so there's going to be a scramble to test is loyalty is is the problem. This goes back to what I was talking about earlier when I was saying about I if you like that the lack of all Johnson nights as it were Johnson I organization I mean with the greatest respective of those people that you just listed as as the own retainers they are not people you would instinctively say are sitting at the top rank of talent within the parliamentary Conservative Party and there is going to be a decision Boris is going to have to make back the extent to which he rewards his allies but also has to reward and rely on those people who have not in instinctively been his allies and I think to follow up with I think I think James made a very very important important point. <hes> which again goes back to this balance between the G and those sort of government equalled what was it government's sort positive men and women and men and women women men and women men and women of men and women of government who are in a very different place from the I mean the reality is that Boris for all he's up. Boundless Optimism mm-hmm ISM is not going to be able to secure a markedly different offer from the European Union to that that was offered to reason to Theresa May and at that point there there are there are two questions one. To what extent will Leo G. BE PREPARED TO SELL A cell minor concessions to Boras as major concessions or concessions significant significant enough to give to give Boris's withdrawal agreement fare went fair wind and the second thing is if they can't sell that and Boris is presented with the option no the option but no deal to what extent the men and women of government who are prepared to as it will go along the right up until October thirty first at that point feel like they have to get to get off the ride because whilst you can see circumstances where saying I'm Barack for example can agree to serve in government to you try and as it were lend her weight to efforts to secure a deal and moves away from an ideal scenario to get your point where I'm barraged is actually standing up advocating no deal scenario before or on October thirty first that that is a real stretch this I would enough if he you slam the door and Boris Johnson's face and say we're not talking to you. The actually makes his life easier because I think the vast majority of those men of minimum government types cheese fries MONOGAM- <hes> Ka Katie is updated it. I think most of them and I've even maybe even rubbed with say look okay if he you won't negotiate then the blame lies that but if they aren't prepared to negotiate and the concessions that are offered they all they all genuine concessions not enough when that will matter one person. I think we haven't taught by who maybe should thank you..