Japan, Interest Rates, Researcher discussed on The Meb Faber Show - #53: Radio Show: Cheapest Countries Right Now for New Dollars


You're talking about japan and they have demographic issues about the us interest rates lowinterest it's is there ever a situation in which you're going to reevaluate cape as being effective is a river a paradigm shift in which you're in a loses much confidence in it like any good researcher i am open to ideas so if someone was to come to me and say hey look here's an input to your model that quantitatively could improve it or impact the advocacy of it i am told them border that you know ii totally i see i mean we've learned aboutcape in the ensuing years for example you know a lot of other people publishing jesselivermore our friends at star capital in germany publishing a lot more analytics on the vagaries of msci as universe so there is a msci cap waded as well as investible market universe which is much more expanded it doesn't matter for 99 of the country 90 of the country's but some of the smaller ones for example does make a difference now it doesn't change the conclusion but so greece for example depending on which index you look at has a cape ratio to or like minus 10 because of the earnings now that's one reason we don't just use our earnings we use four or five other longterm valuation metrics dividend yield cashflow price to book all those because any given market may have or structural oddity in australia for example because of incentives as a higher dividend nieto says things like that so we use evaluation composite sogreece still falls in the tea bucket no matter what but you learn some of these things in the incorporate them so someone's to say look we can here's how you can incorporate demography and so i know research fillets talks about a lot about this as this gmothen they have ways they incorporate into research votes paired with pimmco has put a lot of good research here buti don't have anything that is found to be particularly useful that improves upon it from khanna metric timeseries but we're open to it.

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