Goldman, Washington, Alex discussed on Networth Radio
Intelligence. We're making great decisions in the year ahead. This week's program titled The January Effect, I'm Spencer McCowen President McGowan Group, joined by co host Alex to lean, head of client development of McGowan Group Asset Management. A team of nine. The team that cares and having navigated the pandemic, looking forward to the year ahead. But the January effect tells us something will explain what the January effect is and what the impact was from this week. What perform best in the first week of trading. We'll get to that. Alex, what else we got? Yeah. What does that tell us? What are the most likely policy changes? And potential tax all changes. They're coming with the new administration. Well, and what are the forecast for 2021? We'll get to that in the charts. And what else we're gonna cover. How does this this week? Change the outlook for, um for markets. Well. I've got a couple of I got a couple of numbers go to the Trader's Almanac for that, right? Like the first day they say the first six days of trading forecast the here and that right? Yes, now. That can get you into trouble because it doesn't always work right? It's about two thirds effective for for trends. The Dow Up about 1%, the S and P about 1.5 Russell 2000 Small stock index was up 6%. Medical was up 3% for the week. That's pretty good week. I'm glad if you do that every week for 52 weeks, then it's pretty good. Um, pipelines up 8% for the week. And AH, West Texas Intermediate crude 51 50 a big week they're Saudi cutback of a million and production per day. The good news is three U. S. Is actually capable of delivering Maura with the differential I got to say about that is is I don't think I could drive 55. Right. Oh, okay. No. Van Halen Reference. Yeah, that was Nixon invented that by the way for the 55. Yeah, to save on fuel. Yeah, And then he made us all companies sell oil at six a barrel when the world price was 30. I want to interject here just for a second. That was that was over regulation. This is this is the What the The beginning of 2021. You've been on the air for how long? Oh, February next month will mark Ah, that will be 20 years 20 years. So we're starting our 21st year of network radio. Congratulations. Hey, thank you so much. We'll declare the anniversary now. Okay? Because You know, I think I had to do the audition in January. They want to make sure that I wouldn't get embarrassed on. Okay. So when the program started, all right. Ah, lot of the format. Um, I I did not like what I was hearing. Especially on the weekends right there, Except for Ed Wallace. He's one of the best is really so, um, and you can't get news. You know, on the weekends like you go to CNBC. And they're doing reruns about, you know, bizarre estates and like that, And and so when you're in your car on the weekends, you know, do stuff to get any good news content. Right? So I just said well Financial news. And that turned into the market reports and what I noticed is it was great because clients would listen. Say what the heck is going on right? Washington takes a hard dramatic left turn this week. Chaos and the Dow just dances at 31,000. So we'll get to, you know, we get to dissect that, but a lot of the programs were call ins, okay? So I was going to follow that format. I've only taken one call and other than an interview, right, right. This is what made me decide. If I'm gonna have somebody on the program. They have to be a neck spurt and an expert that adds value for us as a Zbigniew leader as an analyst. Right? Um, those air that was the devotion and here's where it came from. So I had this high powered C p A on I'm all excited. First guest, okay? We're going through really The high end of tax law on tax law changes right to get to that subject. Briefly. We're about see corporate taxes go from 21% to 28% is what Goldman said. And tax everybody that makes over 400 whole lot because they're evil. Right? Those are the two policy changes. Goldman forecasts. Um, in this case, um The first guest was the C E P A. And we wanted a high level conversation. Right? So we're going over the tax law changes at the time 20 years ago. And techniques for lowering your taxes causes in the fourth quarter sometime, and so we decided to take a call right Lady calls and says Do I need to file a return if I only made three grant? Mm this last year. And You know. So the C p A is like, Well, yeah, they might not even care. E mean, you know what I mean? She had a genuine question, and that was good. What it made me determine is it's not worth it, right? Yeah. If you're gonna have somebody on you want to have somebody that adds value right off the bat. And just if you're listening to this point of fact It is ah, Khelil not to file Okay, you have to file it's not he leave. He can't pay. You could work. Some of the I R s That's not illegal, but it's illegal to actually not file. Okay, so that was it was okay. So 20 years later, we answer the first question. Okay? And then the first long play interview was was a guy that ran the world's largest aluminum recycler. Removing okay and he had prepared like 200 pages of aluminum smelting. Briefing. Yeah, and read the thing. He read it. He read it. It took us all night to add it. I've never edited another interview. Umm I just noted, interrupt if it's not going too good direction. If me is a businessman, if if I'm if I don't like it, I'm going somewhere else. Right? And so that was that was a key, All right. So Washington takes a dramatic left. Turn, right. We saw that. Yep. Okay. And policy changes. We don't know yet. We do know from Goldman. At $4 Trillion infrastructure package because they're going to get the investment banking business that right? That's gonna be huge. Now what that does it, You know the U. S debt approaching 30 trillion The balance sheet of the Fed essentially will double by the time they get done with this. And then that that sets the stage for 2022. Yeah. Goldman's phrase was they're unlikely to do anything to disrupt the current recovery. Until 2022 s so later in the year, it's gonna be important to stay tuned and one of the things that you know, in terms of the safety waiting. We're gonna adjust that. The dangers ahead during the year. That being said. I've made the case for 20% potential year old statement. But you know that's the backdrop. I think right now for 2021, particularly the first half. Is actually very favorable. Very You know, a lot of stimulus that we we already had the additional 17 to 20% money supply increase. We got vaccines on the way. Um, you have pent up demand. All that stuff says Hey, we're likely to have a pretty good 2021. What does it look like going into 2022? Yep. Is a different story. I talked to four octogenarians that have already been vaccinated this week. Clients. All right, right and Also talked to some people in their seventies and they're wondering how to get it. And Papa Dean, he went and got it it Market street pharmacy and play. No, hey, already got his. So there'll be a line out the door, right? Right. So that's anyway. But that Z good news. Even though we're in the midst of 130,000 people a day getting admitted to the hospital, um the flu season usually picks it 60,000 just to put it in context.