Toronto Dominion Bank, Bloomberg, Tom Keane discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance

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Manners cranny Who'd you come up is a senior a European race strategist at Toronto dominion bank page Thank you for being with us What can we handle in the bond market If they go for a slightly more nuanced or quicker balance sheet reduction where does that do to tan your paper And what does that do to real rates Give us those two targets for you because that science is if that's the process you're leaning towards Yes definitely So as we said the front end seems pretty well priced right now so I don't think I would like to be bearish here But for talking about the ten year rates it could reach as high as 2.5 just because we are looking for balance sheet reduction And we also looking for pair to actually hike almost to a 2% level so which is basically your terminal or neutral rate of it So I think what will follow is even ten year rates So that's where we could That's what we would be targeting And that's why we like being short shared with right Now because if we do see tied think of policy wire rates as well as via balance sheet the ten year the duration of the curve will basically get it So I think in short we are talking to attribute as close to two 50% If fair does deliver on three to four hives as well as duty this year Here more conversations like this one on Bloomberg television streaming live on Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg mobile app or check your local cable listings Do four earnings are gonna be awesome Bloomberg is fastest with the numbers and analysis Amazon crossing the Bloomberg terminal Where are investors seeing the weaknesses it means profits down the line earnings season on Bloomberg television and radio Inflation is very high in too high We wouldn't want to see it persist at a very high level We have a 2% inflation goal So that is it is very much in my mind and my colleagues mind John Williams there the president of the Federal Reserve bank of New York with Tom Keane and Lisa Brown with some Jonathan pharaoh your equity market is down 48 on the S&P with down 1% on the NASDAQ without 1.66% That's the bad news for the equity bills the good news We are through the second Saturday before an FOMC decision which means we are in the quiet period You will have no fed speak whatsoever this week That's the good news You're up three basis points on tenth to one 81 62 on twos 1.02% You'll tie there by 6 basis points So one tens Tom were up a couple of basis points on two to up 6 This curves flatter this morning with crude higher Up to 85 on WTI just short now 84 91 and through 88 briefly on Bren Yeah there's not been a way here in the last hour and a half I look at the vix 21.57 really doesn't show a breakout to new fear of a China to be direct It's an elevated and important Tuesday And the Goldman Cole that Lisa mentioned a little bit earlier this morning Tom triple digit crude Q three this year And for everyone that said yeah right triple ditch your crude I mean we're not far off it are we No No That's straight line I haven't done the extrapolation I'm glad you mentioned that I'll do it So I can tell you the hour in the day when we're going to hit $100 a barrel Anne Marie Horton is never extrapolated in life Bloomberg Washington correspondent joins us right now I want to go Anne Marie one Billy Joel in his great song Alan town where he talked about the restlessness that was handed down The congresswoman from the 7th district of Pennsylvania Susan wild is restless to say the least She's scared stiff She barely won She's a moderate Democrat One of the Susan wilds do if they're so restless in Allentown It's a very difficult moment right now Tom for the Democratic Party given the fact that and we saw this really over the weekend a number of op eds Stein had won in The Washington Post talking about this hold the progressives have on the party and you can see that with what's going to happen this week The push forward on voting rights even though they know that they're not going to be able to get an inch within creating that to be legislation The problem with the moderates is as they lead up to the midterm elections it's every day kitchen table issues that Americans are frustrated with right now And you can see that in poll after poll the latest being the CBS YouGov poll talking about the fact that they think the Biden administration and Democrats are just not focused enough on inflation These are the kinds of issues that they want to see legislators talk about And that is really the precariousness when you have representatives like you're talking about from Pennsylvania Okay well Susan wild and show I mean I like to put this up folks because I think we forget that there are these elections that are a little bit close And you know I had to look it up I didn't have a memorized 51.9% rounded up 52% to 48% wild over shell or in the 7th congressional district Does Bernie Sanders does AOC Does the left does the president care about those people.

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